Corporate investment decisions are among the most important decisions of a firm. Internal capital markets play a key role in facilitating the allocation of capital resources in order to finance investment projects within diversified firms. This thesis investigates internal capital markets and its relationship with analysts earnings forecast errors in three countries with two distinct financial systems, namely, the market-based and bank-based financial system. Using segment level data for public listed companies in the UK, France and Germany between 2005 and 2010, we examine the operation and efficiency of internal capital markets in market- and bank-based systems. We also examine the impact of the financial crisis of 2008 on internal capital markets and analysts earnings forecasts errors, namely, the accuracy, bias and dispersion. The findings indicate internal capital markets actively facilitate the allocation of resources within diversified firms and, in general, operate inefficiently. Furthermore, internal capital markets appear to be more active in France compared with the UK. On the other hand, their role appears to be limited in Germany, as segments appear to rely more on their own resources and less on internal capital markets for investments. In addition, we find that internal capital market activity declines and efficiency improves during the financial crisis in UK. In contrast, there is no significant evidence to suggest that efficiency improves during the crisis in France or Germany. This research also finds some evidence to suggest internal capital markets operations aggravate firm complexity and, in turn, negatively affect short-term forecast accuracy in the UK. In addition to this, our analysis shows there is a positive relationship between the size of internal capital markets and dispersion in analysts earnings forecasts. In general, our study shows analysts are optimistic about firms future performance; however, the level of optimism significantly declines during the financial crisis. Lastly, we report a positive relationship between efficiency of internal capital markets and optimism in earnings forecasts.

當企業的經營面臨不確定的情況時，使用穩健原則固然是可靠的，但是公司如果過度的使用穩健原則來操縱財務報表，將使資產和盈餘嚴重低估和扭曲，因此反而會降低財務報表的可靠性以及攸關性。公司的財務報表是財務分析師預測的來源之一，故當公司的盈餘由於受到管理當局對會計保守程度之操縱而有較大波動幅度時，若分析師相信公司當期盈餘是對未來盈餘的無偏誤預測指標，則財務分析師將會被誤導。因此，公司的會計保守程度對分析師盈餘預測的誤差和不同分析師間對盈餘預測意見不一致之程度應該有重大的影響。 　　本文以民國90年至94年之上市公司為研究對象，經由迴歸模型來分析公司會計保守性與分析師盈餘預測誤差與盈餘預測分歧程度間之關係，以檢視財務分析師是否能察覺保守性會計對公司盈餘的影響而反映於其盈餘預測中。結果發現會計保守性對分析師盈餘預測屬性均有正向影響，表示財務分析師在預測公司未來盈餘時會對管理當局所選擇的會計保守程度加以評估，並考量管理當局利用會計保守性進行盈餘管理的情形，進而影響其對公司未來盈餘的預測。 / Management may overuse accounting conservatism to manage the financial statements and undervalue assets and earnings and reduce the reliability and relevance of financial statements though conservatism is an increasing trend in accounting practice. The conservative information may lead analysts to biased forecast when a company’s earning has high volatility. Consequently, the extent of accounting conservatism should have significant effect on the analysts’ earnings forecast errors and forecast dispersion. This study examines the relationship of accounting conservatism and analysts’ annual earnings forecast errors and forecast dispersion by using a sample of listed firms in Taiwan. The results show that accounting conservatism has a positive relationship with the analyst earnings forecast errors and forecast dispersion. It implies that financial analysts may evaluate the extent of accounting conservatism and make adjustment in earnings forecast.

研究顯示，家族企業之數量與經濟影響力在全球企業環境中迅速成長並占有一席之地，成為具競爭力的存在，本研究以我國2001至2008年的上市（櫃）公司為樣本，探討財務分析師針對家族與非家族企業在預測行為上之差異，本研究之迴歸模型以分析師預測誤差、追蹤意願及預測離散程度三種特性分析財務分析師的預測行為，研究顯示相較於非家族企業，分析師對家族企業之預測意願較低，追蹤數量明顯較少，在預測結果上，家族企業會使分析師的預測產生較大的誤差，且各分析師間預測結果的差異程度也較大，本研究藉此結果推論家族企業中控制股東與其他股東代理問題的存在，及家族成員擔任管理者或董事等重要職位導致董事會喪失監督職能，在資訊揭露的數量與品質上表現較差。 / Prior research shows that family firms have grown rapidly and played an important role in the global corporate environment. This study examines the relation between family firms and financial analysts’ earnings forecast behaviors in Taiwan from year 2001 to 2008. I use several analysts forecast attributes: forecasts error, number of analysts following, and forecast dispersion. The results indicate that family firms generally have less analysts following, greater analysts’ forecast errors and greater forecast dispersion. These findings support the argument that the existence of conflict between majority and minority shareholders and that family members serving as managers or members of the board may weaken the disclosure of the quantity and quality of firm-specific information.

本研究探討我國於2004年發佈之第35號財務會計準則公報，有關『資產減損之會計處理準則』。35號公報要求企業必須評估公司資產之價值，以避免資產價值之虛列，增加資產價值資訊之透明度。本研究就公開資訊之揭露與資訊透明度的觀點，探討與資產減損有關的三項議題：(1)資產減損之股價反應幅度與公司特質及減損資產類別的關聯性；(2)資產減損對分析師盈餘預測特性之影響；(3)資產減損對本益比之影響。本文之研究結果顯示：(1)對於提前於2004年年報適用的樣本與準時於2005年第一季季報適用的樣本，公司特質變數與股價反應幅度的關聯性有不同；而減損資產類別變數與股價反應幅度則未有顯著之關係；(2)相較於同產業且資產總額接近之未宣告認列資產減損的控制組公司，宣告認列資產減損之公司，其分析師盈餘預測之離散性與預測誤差降低；並且公司揭露認列的減損比率愈大，其分析師間盈餘預測的離散性及預測誤差愈小；(3)在與同產業且資產總額接近之未宣告認列資產減損之控制組公司相較下，宣告認列資產減損之公司，其減損認列後的本益比較減損認列前的期間為高，且認列減損之比率愈大者，其認列減損之後的本益比愈高。這些結果顯示35號公報之公布實施，強制規定公司全面檢視資產或重大投資之潛在未實現損失，將有助於增加資產及盈餘資訊之透明度與穩健性，並提高了分析師對公司盈餘預測能力及市場對公司盈餘資訊之評價。 / This paper studies the effects of the implementation of Statement on Financial Accounting Standards (hereafter, SFAS No. 35) in 2004 on “Accounting for Asset Impairments”. SFAS No. 35 requires that the company has to assess its assets to reflect the potential unrealized losses of assets and improve the transparency of the value of assets in financial statements. From the viewpoints of the disclosure on public information and the transparency of financial statements, this study examines the following three issues related to the asset write-offs: (a) how is the association between the magnitude of market reaction to write-off announcements, firms’ characteristic, and the categories of the asset written-off? (b) what is the impact of asset write-offs on analysts’ forecast dispersion and errors? (c) what is the impact of asset write-offs on price/earnings ratios? The results show that the magnitudes of market reaction in the early adoption samples in 2004 financial statements are different from that in the timely adoption samples in first quarter of 2005’s financial statement. However, The magnitudes of market reactions to the write-off are not significantly associated with categories of asset written-off. Furthermore, compared to control sample of non-adopting firms in the same industry and with similar total assets, the adopting firms have less analysts’ earnings forecast dispersion and errors. And, the larger the asset write-offs, the smaller the analysts’ earnings forecast dispersion and errors. Finally, the adopting firms have larger price/earnings ratios after the asset write-offs than control sample. The larger proportions of asset write-offs to total assets, the larger the price/earnings ratios after the firm the asset write-offs. Accordingly, the above evidence indicates that the reports implementations of SFAS No. 35 improves the transparency and conservatism of assets and earnings information, and to increase the valuations of earnings in the stock market in that the adopting firms are required to evaluate the potential unrealized losses on their long-lived assets and investments.