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Vulnerability assessment of surface water supply systems due to climate change and other impacts in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia / Riskanalys av ytvattenförsörjning med avseende på klimatförändring och andra effekter i Addis Abeba, EtiopienElala, Daniel January 2011 (has links)
In Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, open reservoirs provide the majority of the drinking water. In the study present and future condition of these water sources and supplies were systematically assessed regarding water quantities. The study was done by reviewing municipal documents and accessing meteorological, hydrological and demographical data in Addis Ababa. 0%, 5% and 10% change in reservoir inflow/rainfall were used and projections for 2020 and 2030 were used to estimate future temperature and population sizes. The result indicated that supplied water quantity per capita from surface sources in Addis Ababa is likely to be reduced. Both climate and socio-economic related vulnerabilities were identified and the four following got the highest risk score: Increases in population, increased per capita water demand, overexploited land and increased distribution losses.At present the annual increase in population in Ethiopia is 4.4% and annual GDP increase is 7%, leading to a growing water demand in Addis Ababa. If the water supplies are not substantially increased the situation will lead to water scarcity. By 2020 water demand coverage will be 34% and by 2030 22%, compared with the current 50% coverage.Overexploited land was also identified as a major vulnerability due to the impact on catchment hydrology and distribution losses, caused by insufficient maintenance and replacement of aged pipes. At present 20% of the treated water is lost and it is likely to increase during the coming decades. However, the climate change induced rainfall variability is unlikely to cause large problems within the observed timeframe. Even with a 100 year drought 14% of the available water would be spill due to the limited reservoir capacity.To secure future water distribution Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority (AAWSA) should build dams north of the Entoto ridge. They should also gain further understanding about and find appropriate measures for, highlighted vulnerabilities. A full vulnerability assessment should be done by AAWSA and they should consider implementing a „Water Safety Plan‟ for the whole water supply system.
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Climate Change Vulnerability of the US Northeast Ski Sector: a multi-methods systems-based approachDawson, Jackie 16 July 2009 (has links)
In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change estimated that global mean temperature will increase between 1.8 to 4.0°C by the end of the 21st century. An increase in global temperature by even a few degrees could have significant environmental and economic impacts, and mean that economic sectors that are better able to adapt to a changing climate will prosper, and those that are not may decline, relocate or disappear.
Traditional resource sectors, which are highly reliant on environmental conditions, such as agriculture and forestry have been considering the implications of climate change for several decades. The tourism sector, which is also highly reliant on environmental factors, has only begun to consider the possible impacts of climate change over the past five to seven years. The integrated effects of a changing climate are anticipated to have far-reaching consequences for the rapidly growing global tourism economy and the communities that rely on the sector. In fact, the United Nations World Tourism Organization [UNWTO], United Nations Environment Program [UNEP] and World Meteorological Organization [WMO] identified climate change as the ‘greatest challenge to the sustainability of the global tourism industry in the 21st century’.
The winter tourism sector has been repeatedly identified as vulnerable to climate change due mainly to the high susceptibility of mountain environments and the projected reduction in natural snow availability. The international ski industry has received the most detailed attention because of the sector’s high cultural and economic importance in many regions. The multi-billion dollar ski sector is highly vulnerable to changes in both regional and local climate and as a result has been projected to experience decreased natural snow reliability resulting in decreased season length, increased snowmaking requirements, increased operating costs, and decreased revenues in association with decreased visitation.
The overarching goal of this dissertation is to examine climate change vulnerability (see glossary of terms, p. xi) (both- supply and demand-sides) for the entire US Northeast ski tourism sector in order to understand how the regional marketplace, as a whole, is likely to change in response to projected climate change. Previous research has been piecemeal in its approach (i.e. examining either supply or demand) and has largely neglected to examine climate change vulnerability of the ski sector from a systems-based perspective (i.e. examining both supply and demand for a single marketplace). Understanding how the US Northeast ski area marketplace may contract under climate change conditions including how ski area competitors may fair under future conditions, and how demand-side behavioural response is likely to occur, would allow ski area operators and managers to develop and implement appropriate adaptation strategies that can help reduce the negative impacts of change while taking advantage of any opportunities.
The research revealed that there is likely to be a contraction of ski area supply, which favours those ski areas that are able to afford the increased cost of adapting to projected changes in climatic conditions. Ski areas that are situated at higher elevations or are located in the northern portion of the Northeast region, were found to be at an advantage due to lower temperatures and more precipitation falling as snow. Ski areas in Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and northeastern New York were projected to maintain longer season lengths, require less snowmaking and be more likely to be operational during the economically important Christmas-New Year holiday than ski areas in Connecticut or Massachusetts.
The extent to which skiers intend to change their skiing behaviour in response to the projected impacts on ski area supply were not significantly greater than the extent to which they already change their skiing habits when current conditions are poor. This suggests that the future response to climate change is likely to be similar to that which has been observed during marginal snow conditions of the past, and that demand for skiing opportunities is not likely to reduce proportionally to the expected reduction in supply. In which case, the ski areas that are able to remain operational under projected climate change, may be able to take advantage of a possible geographic market shift (i.e. greater demand/market share for ski areas that remain). If there is a net transfer of demand throughout the remaining marketplace, it would mean that some communities would need to prepare for development pressures (e.g. water use for snowmaking, real estate development, slope expansion, congestion) associated with the concentration of ski tourism in fewer areas, while others would need to prepare for economic diversification and investment in alternative industries (i.e. adapted snow-based industry or non-snow-based industry).
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Community Based Planning in Post-Disaster Reconstruction:A Case Study of Tsunami Affected Fishing Communities in Tamil Nadu Coast of IndiaMohapatra, Romasa 23 September 2009 (has links)
In the past few years, natural disasters have been taking more lives and, especially more in the lesser-developed countries. There have been debates in the scientific world on what could be the best ways to mitigate disasters and reduce their impacts. In addition, there is a growing concern about finding the best way of restoring normal lives in the disaster affected communities. Traditional top-down approaches practiced by local governments, aid-agencies, and NGOs have now been replaced by community-based disaster management approaches. International aid-agencies such as the World Bank, UNDP, CIDA, USAID etc., emphasize on the involvement of the community for development purposes and long term sustainability. However, experiences from catastrophic disasters such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004 or the Hurricane Katrina of 2005 revealed post-disaster scenario to be chaotic and at times insensitive to local cultures and needs of victims.
Literature review of past theories indicated the widening gap in disaster management approaches for establishing effective models to deal with recurrent mega-disasters. To address some of the gaps and issues related to disaster management strategies and approaches, an ongoing reconstruction process of the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004 was evaluated in the coastal regions of Tamil Nadu, India. Four underlying objectives were set. The first was to review the evolving disaster paradigm and related theories and concepts in literature and to build connections with planning models and community based planning. Gaps in the literature were identified and a ‘common framework’ to study both the domains of environmental planning and disaster management was designed. The ‘framework’ was designed using other interdisciplinary planning frameworks, and suffices the second objective of this dissertation.
The third objective was to assess an ongoing reconstruction process using an appropriate methodology and suitable indicators. Environmental issues and disaster related problems have risen over the last decade with its effects worsening in the developing countries. Despite technological advancements, it seems almost impossible to make disaster related losses negligible. However, losses can be minimised with proper interventions and community preparedness. Case studies were carried out within disaster affected fishing communities in the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu, India.
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Vulnerability Assessment of Rural Communities in Southern SaskatchewanLuk, Ka Yan January 2011 (has links)
Water resources in Canada are of major environmental, social and economic value. It is expected that climate change will be accompanied by more intense competition for water supply in water-stressed agricultural areas such as the southern Prairies. Beyond physical impacts, drought can be seen as a socio-economic and political problem which ultimately has implications for community-level vulnerability to climate change. This thesis presents empirical vulnerability case studies focused on the exposure-sensitivity and adaptive capacity of Coronach and Gravelbourg in southern Saskatchewan. The results illustrate the fact that farmers or ranchers are not merely passive victims of drought. They also take an active role in shaping the environment around them, thus affecting their own vulnerability to drought. Therefore, by understanding the causal linkages of the coupled social-environment system, a more comprehensive understanding of community vulnerability is achievable and informed decisions can be made based on this thorough understanding of local conditions. In the second part of this thesis, the potential of soft water path is evaluated as a possible adaptation strategy. Based on the results gathered in the first part of this thesis, adaptation measures are tailored to address specific needs of different sectors in the Town of Coronach and the Town of Gravelbourg while ensuring ecological sustainability. Examples of possible paths (adaptation measures) are suggested in order to increase community adaptive capacity to water shortages in light of future climate changes.
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The community context of contagious diseases: the case of Dengue Fever in Kaohsiung CityYu, Chiao-Hsien 06 September 2012 (has links)
The impact of Community - on health is one of the core issues of sociology and social epidemiology. Dengue fever, whose occurrence and eradication highly depend in the environment of the community, provides an opportunity to explore the relationship between the community and the health. This study focuses on the outbreak of Dengue fever in 2006 in Kaohsiung City and analyzes how community factors affect the cluster infections of.
This study uses the theories of social capital and social vulnerability to explore the effect population, socioeconomic status, and public participation in the community on cluster infection. Social capital is formed by community members through participating in public affairs and voluntary organizations; social vulnerability refers to the overall socio-economic conditions that shape the ability of community to respond to the undesirable events. The social capital index was constructed composed of the Community Development Association, the voting rate of warden elections. Social vulnerability index is based on the compositions of the population, including the proportion of elderly males, population change rate, ratio of low-income households the proportion of dependents than average household income. In addition to consideration the spatial characteristics of dengue fever, this thesis uses Moran's I and LISA test dengue fever outbreaks, and correct the result by Geographically Weighted Regression.
The results shows the impact of community factors on the health of residents, provide health sociology and control of dengue fever different reflections direction.
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Detecting Remote AttacksHan, Wang-tzu 30 July 2004 (has links)
With the advanced technology, our life has improved, however, it also brings the new model of crime events. Because the intrusion technique and intrusion tools are developed day by day, many computer crimes such as overstep system authority, intrusion events, computer crime, and network attack incidents are happening everywhere and everyday. In fact, those kinds of animus attack behaviors are troublesome problems.
Staffs of network management may have to read security advisory, which is sent out by security organization. For example, they have to subscribe advisories for Computer Emergency Response Team or security mail list to continuously accumulate their security information. In addition, in the security protect system, they may need to spend huge fund to purchase firewall system, intrusion detection system, antivirus system and other related security protect systems.
These attack behaviors have been evolved from one computer attacked to heavy attack by new intrusion model such as worm to proceed large scale spread attacking recently. Furthermore, each attack use different communication protocol and port, which is aimed at the system vulnerability, it is not easy to detect these attacks. If we can observe the variation of network traffic to detect the unusual hosts, for controlling the usage of network or occurring extraordinary phenomenon, it could help network managers to discover and solve network attack problems in time.
Lately, many intrusion events have been happened increasingly, and the denial-of-service has become the most serious network event of the Computer Crime and Security Survey of FBI/CSI in 2003. Therefore, in various attacking types, we choose vulnerability scan and denial-of-service as our research direction.
This research extend to develop IPAudit[16], a network traffic monitor system, which is to detect hosts flows traffic of the local area network. We establish network attack rules by using data miningclassification (C4.5) to analyze attack data, and we estimate the correctness percentage of classification. This study also uses different attack applications for the same attack type to process the cross experiment. The result has shown that the technology of data mining classification (C4.5) can help us to forecast efficiently the same attack type events.
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A Risk And Vulnerability Ontology For Construction ProjectsFidan, Gulsah 01 September 2008 (has links) (PDF)
Risk is an uncertain event which will cause deviation in pre-defined objectives, if it occurs. Risk management aims to identify risks, quantify their impacts and develop strategies to mitigate them to ensure project success. Within the context
of risk management studies, risk models are usually designed to simulate the project performance under various scenarios. For risk modeling, the statistical link between the risk events and their consequences is scrutinized. However, this approach has a limitation as the influence of the &ldquo / system&rdquo / is neglected during modeling the relation between risk sources and consequences. The term &ldquo / vulnerability&rdquo / is used to describe internal characteristics of a system which influence this relationship. Management of vulnerabilities in addition to risks is essential for the success of risk management. However, there is no consensus on an appropriate definition of vulnerability parameters and their influence on construction projects.
One of the aims of the study is to identify the vulnerability factors for construction projects and to propose a framework which portrays the relationship between risk and vulnerability. For this purpose, a detailed literature survey is performed to define the determinants influencing the level of vulnerability. In addition, case studies were conducted with Turkish contractors to explore the relationships between risk events, project vulnerabilities and project performance. Another objective of the study is to propose a risk and vulnerability ontology which provides a definite vocabulary and machine-comprehensible common understanding of the developed framework. Developed ontology will further be used to form a database for risk and vulnerability management.
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Resilience / Vulnerability Factors As Predictors Of Turkish University StudentsOrbay, Ozge 01 April 2009 (has links) (PDF)
It may be assumed that the various resources individuals have will be needed in coping with the adjustments required in college. Any deficits in individuals&rsquo / psychological make-up or maladaptive coping strategies will block their adjustment to college. Within this idea of adjustment, adjustment to college and psychological well being were predicted by several variables named as personality, hardiness, and coping strategies under a stressful condition. Students who have completed their freshmen year were administered the scales related to the above variables and a series of path analyses were carried out. Results indicated that problem focused coping and helplessness/self blame had a mediator role between personality variables and psychological well being. Neuroticism was named as a vulnerability factor. Students with neuroticism as a personality characteristic were regarded as risk groups, who were likely to use helplessness/self blame coping. On the other hand, personality characteristics such as conscientiousness, openness/intellect, and hardiness were concluded to be a resilience factors together with problem focused coping.
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Code Automation for Vulnerability ScannerWu, Ching-Chang 06 July 2003 (has links)
With enormous vulnerability discovered and Internet prevailing in the word, users confront with the more dangerous environment. As a result, the users have to understand the system risk necessarily. The vulnerability scanner provides the functionality that could check if the system is vulnerable.
Nessus is a vulnerability scanner. It provides the customization capability that users could defined the security check. It develops a attack language called NASL. By use of NASL, users could write the security check by themselves. But before writing the security check, the users must know the architecture of Nessus and study how to write the security check by NASL.
Different vulnerabilities have different the detection approach and communications method. If users don't know about above knowledge, they couldn¡¦t write the security check.
In this research, we develop a automatic mechanism of generating code for the Nessus scanner and produce a security check. And we also provide two approaches to produce the security check. The one is the modularization. It takes part of function codes into a module, and combines the modules into a security check. The other one is package. The users can't involve the attack code and just only fill in some of parameters to produce the security check.
This research proposes the design above and actually implements a system to generate attack codes. It attempts to decrease the needs of knowledge to users about security check, reduce the error rates by human typos, and enhance the efficiency and correctness for writing the security check
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Information Security Risk Assessment Model ¡V A Case Study of a Semiconductor Assembly CompanyHu, Ruei-shian 30 July 2008 (has links)
The information security incidents have most often been reported. The loss of enterprise operation is more and more serious because of information security incidents. There are more and more operation risks happening inside the enterprise because of such informational and electronic transformation. Consequently, the requirement to have an effective management framework of information security is more and more urgent.
The research adopts the international standard ISO 27001 as the foundation of the information security management framework. And then, risk assessment is the main process of the informational security management framework. This process includes five stages: identification and classification of information assets, value evaluation of information assets, vulnerability assessment of information assets, threats assessment of information assets, and measurement of information security risks. The operational definition, implementation steps and measurement of the information security risks are worked out through review of relevant literature and interview with experts in the semiconductor assembly company. Finally, the experts of the consulting firm of the informational security are entrusted to verify the availability of the model. The result of this informational security risk assessment model will be used as the basis for future improvement.
It is hoped that this research can offer a guideline for the information security risk assessment suitable for the semiconductor company and can be used as a reference for internal auditors and management.
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