É muito comum encontrar nas áreas agronômica e biológica experimentos cujas observações são correlacionadas. Porém, tais correlações, em tese, podem estar associadas às parcelas ou às subparcelas, dependendo do plano experimental adotado. Além disso, a metodologia de modelos lineares mistos vem sendo utilizada com mais freqüência, principalmente após os trabalhos de Searle (1988), Searle at al. (1992), Wolfinger (1993b) entre outros. O sucesso do procedimento de modelagem está fortemente associado ao exame dos efeitos aleatórios que devem permanecer no modelo e na possibilidade de se introduzir, no modelo, estruturas de variâncias e covariâncias das variáveis aleatórias que, para o modelo linear misto, podem estar inseridas no resíduo e, também, na parte aleatória associada ao fator aleatório conhecido. Nesse contexto, o Teste da Razão de Verossimilhança e o Critério de Akaike podem auxiliar na tarefa de escolha do modelo mais apropriado para análise dos dados, além de permitir verificar que escolhas de modelos inadequadas acarretam em conclusões divergentes em relação aos efeitos fixos do modelo. Com o desenvolvimento do Proc Mixed do SAS (Littel at al. 1996), utilizado neste trabalho, a análise desses experimentos, tratada pela metodologia modelos lineares mistos, tornou-se mais usual e segura. Com a finalidade de se atingir o objetivo deste trabalho, utilizaram-se dois exemplos (A e B) sobre a resposta da produtividade de três cultivares de trigo, em relação a níveis de irrigação por aspersão line-source. Foram criados e analisados 29 modelos para o Exemplo A e 16 modelos para o Exemplo B. Pôde-se verificar, para cada um dos exemplos, que as conclusões em relação aos efeitos fixos se modificaram de acordo com o modelo adotado. Notou-se, também, que o Critério de Akaike deve ser visto com cautela. Ao se comparar modelos similares entre os dois exemplos, ratificou-se a importância de se programar corretamente no Proc Mixed. Nesse contexto, conclui-se que é fundamental conduzir a análise de experimentos de forma ampla, buscando vários modelos e verificando quais têm lógica em relação ao plano experimental, evitando erros ao término da análise. / In Biology and Agronomy, experiments that produce correlated observations are often found. Theoretically, these correlations may be associated with whole-plots or subplots, according to the chosen experimental design. Also, the mixed linear model methodology is now being used much more frequently, especially after the works of Searle (1988), Searle et al. (1992) and Wolfinger (1993b), among others. The success of the modeling procedure is strongly associated with the examination of the random effects that must remain within the model and the possibility of introducing variance-covariance structures of random variables in the model. In the case of the mixed linear model, they may be included in the residual error or in the random part which is associated with the known random factor. In this context, the Likelihood Ratio Test and Akaike's Information Criterion can help in choosing the most appropriate model for data analysis. They also enable the verification of inadequate choice of models which can lead to divergent conclusions regarding the fixed effects of the model. With the development of the SAS Mixed Procedure (Little at al. 1996), which was used in this work, analysis of these experiments, conducted through the mixed linear model methodology, has become more usual and secure. In order to achieve the target of this work, two examples were utilized (A and B) involving the productivity response of three varieties of wheat, in regards to irrigation levels by line-source aspersion. Twenty-nine models for Example A and 16 models for Example B were created and analyzed. For each example, it was verified that conclusions regarding fixed effects changed according to the model adopted. It was also verified that Akaike’s Information Criterion must be regarded with caution. When comparing similar models between the two examples, the importance of correct programming in the Mixed Procedure was confirmed. In this context, it can be concluded that it is fundamental to conduct the experiment analysis in an ample manner, looking for various models and verifying which ones make sense according to the experimental plan, thus avoiding errors at analysis completion.

No Planejamento de experimentos para o ajuste de modelos polinomiais envolvendo k fatores principais e respectivas interações, e bastante comum a utilização dos fatoriais 2k, 3k ou frações dos mesmos. Para as analises dos resultados desses experimentos, freqüentemente se considera o princípio da hereditariedade, ou seja, uma vez constatada uma interação significativa entre fatores, os fatores que aparecem nesta interação e respectivas interações devem também estar presentes no modelo. Neste trabalho, esse princípio e incorporado diretamente a priori, para um método de seleção de variáveis Bayesiana, seguindo as idéias propostas por Chipman, Hamada e Wu (1997), porem com uma alteração dos valores sugeridos pelos autores para os hiperparâmetros. Essa alteração, proposta neste trabalho, promove uma melhoria considerável na metodologia original. A metodologia e então ilustrada por meio da analise dos resultados de um experimento fatorial para a elaboração de biofilmes de amido originado da ervilha. / In experimental planning for adjustment of polynomials models involving k main factors and their interactions, it is frequent to adopt the 2k, 3k designs or its fractions. Furthermore, it is not unusual, when analysing the results of such experiments, to consider the heredity principle. In other words, once detected a signicant interaction between factors, the factors that appear in this interaction and respective interactions should also be present in the model. In this work, this principle is incorporated directly in the prior, following the ideas proposed by Chipman, Hamada and Wu (1997), but changing some of the hyperparameters. What improves considerably the original methodology. Finally the methodology is illustrated by the analysis of the results of an experiment for the elaboration of pea starch biolms.

This thesis adopts a survival model to analyze China’s stock market. The data used are the capitalization-weighted stock market index (CSI 300) and the 300 stocks for creating the index. We define the recurrent events using the daily return of the selected stocks and the index. A shared frailty model which incorporates the random effects is then used for analyses since the survival times of individual stocks are correlated. Maximization of penalized likelihood is presented to estimate the parameters in the model. The covariates are selected using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the variance inflation factor (VIF) to avoid multicollinearity. The result of analyses show that the general capital, total amount of a stock traded in a day, turnover rate and price book ratio are significant in the shared frailty model for daily stock data.

Four statistics used for the analysis of categorical data were observed in the presence of many zero cell frequencies in two way classification contingency tables. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of many zero cell frequencies upon the distribution properties of each of the four statistics studied. It was found that Light and Margolin's C and Pearson's Chi-square statistic closely approximated the Chi-square distribution as long as less than one-third of the table cells were empty. It was found that the mean and variance of Kullbach's 21 were larger than the expected values in the presence of few empty cells. The mean for 21 was found to become small in the presence of large numbers of empty cells. Ku's corrected 21 statistic was found, in the presence of many zero cell frequencies, to have a much larger mean value than would be expected in a Chi-square distribution. Kullback's 21 demonstrated a peculiar distribution change in the presence of large numbers of zero cell frequencies. 21 first enlarged, then decreased in average value.

The computer algebra system Maple contains a basic set of commands for working with Lie algebras. The purpose of this thesis was to extend the functionality of these Maple packages in a number of important areas. First, programs for dening multiplication in several types of Cayley algebras, Jordan algebras and Cliord algebras were created to allow users to perform a variety of calculations. Second, commands were created for calculating some basic properties of nite-dimensional representations of complex semisimple Lie algebras. These commands allow one to identify a given representation as direct sum of irreducible subrepresentations, each one identied by an invariant highest weight. Third, creating an algorithm to calculate the Lie bracket for Vinberg's symmetric construction of Freudenthal's Magic Square allowed for a uniform construction of all ve exceptional Lie algebras. Maple examples and tutorials are provided to illustrate the implementation and use of the algebras now available in Maple as well as the tools for working with Lie algebra representations.

The main purpose of this thesis is to compare the performance of the score test and the likelihood ratio test by computing type I errors and type II errors when the tests are applied to the geometric distribution and inflated binomial distribution. We first derive test statistics of the score test and the likelihood ratio test for both distributions. We then use the software package R to perform a simulation to study the behavior of the two tests. We derive the R codes to calculate the two types of error for each distribution. We create lots of samples to approximate the likelihood of type I error and type II error by changing the values of parameters. In the first chapter, we discuss the motivation behind the work presented in this thesis. Also, we introduce the definitions used throughout the paper. In the second chapter, we derive test statistics for the likelihood ratio test and the score test for the geometric distribution. For the score test, we consider the score test using both the observed information matrix and the expected information matrix, and obtain the score test statistic zO and zI . Chapter 3 discusses the likelihood ratio test and the score test for the inflated binomial distribution. The main parameter of interest is w, so p is a nuisance parameter in this case. We derive the likelihood ratio test statistics and the score test statistics to test w. In both tests, the nuisance parameter p is estimated using maximum likelihood estimator pˆ. We also consider the score test using both the observed and the expected information matrices. Chapter 4 focuses on the score test in the inflated binomial distribution. We generate data to follow the zero inflated binomial distribution by using the package R. We plot the graph of the ratio of the two score test statistics for the sample data, zI /zO , in terms of different values of n0, the number of zero values in the sample. In chapter 5, we discuss and compare the use of the score test using two types of information matrices. We perform a simulation study to estimate the two types of errors when applying the test to the geometric distribution and the inflated binomial distribution. We plot the percentage of the two errors by fixing different parameters, such as the probability p and the number of trials m. Finally, we conclude by briefly summarizing the results in chapter 6.

The continued study of asymptomatic Ebolavirus infection is necessary to develop a more complete understanding of Ebola transmission dynamics. This paper conducts a meta-analysis of eight studies that measure seroprevalence (the number of subjects that test positive for anti-Ebolavirus antibodies in their blood) in subjects with household exposure or known case-contact with Ebola, but that have shown no symptoms. In our two random effects Bayesian hierarchical models, we find estimated seroprevalences of 8.76% and 9.72%, significantly higher than the 3.3% found by a previous meta-analysis of these eight studies. We also produce a variation of this meta-analysis where we exclude two of the eight studies. In this model, we find an estimated seroprevalence of 4.4%, much lower than our first two Bayesian hierarchical models. We believe a random effects model more accurately reflects the heterogeneity between studies and thus asymptomatic Ebola is more seroprevalent than previously believed among subjects with household exposure or known case-contact. However, a strong conclusion cannot be reached on the seriousness of asymptomatic Ebola without an international testing standard and more data collection using this adopted standard.

Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift (PEAD) is commonly accepted in the fields of accounting and finance as evidence for stock market inefficiency. Less accepted are the numerous explanations for this anomaly. This project aims to investigate the cause for PEAD by harnessing the power of machine learning algorithms such as Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and a rule-based learning technique, applied to large stock market data sets. Based on the notion that the market is consumer driven, repeated occurrences of irrational behavior exhibited by traders in response to news events such as earnings reports are uncovered. The project produces findings in support of the PEAD anomaly using non-accounting nor financial methods. In particular, this project finds evidence for delayed price response exhibited in trader behavior, a common manifestation of the PEAD phenomenon.

It is estimated that Periodontal Diseases effects up to 90% of the adult population. Given the complexity of the host environment, many factors contribute to expression of the disease. Age, Gender, Socioeconomic Status, Smoking Status, and Race/Ethnicity are all known risk factors, as well as a handful of known comorbidities. Certain vitamins and minerals have been shown to be protective for the disease, while some toxins and chemicals have been associated with an increased prevalence. The role of toxins, chemicals, vitamins, and minerals in relation to disease is believed to be complex and potentially modified by known risk factors. A large comprehensive dataset from 1999-2003 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) contains full and partial mouth examinations on subjects for measurement of periodontal diseases as well as patient demographic information and approximately 150 environmental variables. In this dissertation, a Feasible Solution Algorithm (FSA) will be used to investigate statistical interactions of these various chemical and environmental variables related to periodontal disease. This sequential algorithm can be used on traditional statistical modeling methods to explore two and three way interactions related to the outcome of interest. FSA can also be used to identify unique subgroups of patients where periodontitis is most (or least) prevalent. In this dissertation, FSA is used to explore the NHANES data and suggest interesting relationships between the toxins, chemicals, vitamins, minerals and known risk factors that have not been previously identified.

I consider statistical modelling of data gathered by photographic identification in mark-recapture studies and propose a new method that incorporates the inherent uncertainty of photographic identification in the estimation of abundance, survival and recruitment. A hierarchical model is proposed which accepts scores assigned to pairs of photographs by pattern recognition algorithms as data and allows for uncertainty in matching photographs based on these scores. The new models incorporate latent capture histories that are treated as unknown random variables informed by the data, contrasting past models having the capture histories being fixed. The methods properly account for uncertainty in the matching process and avoid the need for researchers to confirm matches visually, which may be a time consuming and error prone process. Through simulation and application to data obtained from a photographic identification study of whale sharks I show that the proposed method produces estimates that are similar to when the true matching nature of the photographic pairs is known. I then extend the method to incorporate auxiliary information to predetermine matches and non-matches between pairs of photographs in order to reduce computation time when fitting the model. Additionally, methods previously applied to record linkage problems in survey statistics are borrowed to predetermine matches and non-matches based on scores that are deemed extreme. I fit the new models in the Bayesian paradigm via Markov Chain Monte Carlo and custom code that is available by request.