This study examined the relationship between a set of macroeconomic variables and stock market development in Hong Kong and the Philippines for the periods of 1992Q4-2016Q3 and 2001Q4-2016Q4 respectively. In recent decades, the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Philippines have experienced remarkable growth. While the literature has produced diverse views on the relationship between each determinant and the stock market, there are no relevant studies on the determinants of stock market development on these two countries. Against this background, this study enriched the literature by investigating the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in these two countries using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. The empirical results of this study revealed a number of interesting findings. In the case of Hong Kong, the results showed that banking sector development and economic growth exerted positive impacts, whereas the inflation rate and exchange rate exerted negative impacts on stock market development both in the long and short run. In addition, the results showed that trade openness had a positive long-run impact, but a negative short-run impact on stock market development. Therefore, policymakers should pursue policies that foster banking sector development, enhance economic growth and maintain trade openness in order to foster the development of the stock market. In addition, monetary authority should strive to maintain a low level of inflation rate and the value of the domestic currency so as to further promote stock market development. In the case of the Philippines, the study found that trade openness had a negative impact on the development of the stock market in the long run, whereas banking sector development, and the exchange rate had positive impacts in the short run. Based on these findings, policymakers should consider policies that promote the use of equity financing in the production of main exports, enhance banking sector development, and maintain the stability of the domestic currency in order to promote the development of the stock market. / Economics / D. Phil. (Economics)

Liberalisation of trade is deepening, and so have the incentive schemes put in place by a number of countries to promote it. International trade promotion agencies in developing countries are actively promoting their countries as the best, with which to trade. With international trade emerging as a favourite source of revenue and technology transfer for most countries, profound questions about the impact of trade liberalisation to economic growth are addressed in this study. The main purpose of this study is to empirically assess the relationship between trade liberalisation and economic growth in Zimbabwe using annual time series data from 1980 to 2017. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) are applied in order to investigate the long run and short run impact of trade liberalisation on economic growth. The results proved the existence of a positive long-run relationship between trade liberalisation and economic growth. The study therefore concludes that policy makers and government negotiators in Zimbabwe should introduce policies that promote openness through the removal of barriers to trade and export promotion in order to promote overall growth of the economy. / Economics / M. Com (Economics)

Until very recently, most emerging market economies have achieved higher growth rates for the last decade. It is controversial whether this good economic environment is due to domestic reforms or due to favorable external factors. In this framework, the main aim of this study is to investigate the structure and sources of business cycles in emerging market economies and to determine how these cycles differ than those in developed countries. The role of external and domestic factors on business cycles are analyzed by applying not only the conventional panel data estimations but also common correlated effects panel mean group method which is introduced by Peseran (2006). Besides, the convergence of business cycles in emerging market economies to the business cycles in developed countries is discussed based on factor analysis. The major results indicate the common global factors are the leading source of the business cycles both in emerging market economies and developed countries. However, domestic determinants of fluctuations differ across two groups of countries. In addition, results show that in the last two decades fluctuations in emerging market economies have started to be more dependent on the fluctuations in developed countries.

In this study, the effects of CBRT monetary policy decisions on the consumer, automobile, housing and commercial loans of the banks during the period from the early of 2004 to the middle of 2011 are examined. In order to perform this study, it is benefited from weekly weighted average loan interest rate data of the banks, which is the data having the highest frequency that could be obtained from the electronic data distribution system of CBRT. Monetary policy instruments of Central Bank may change in the course of time or monetary policy could be executed by more than one instrument. Therefore, as the political interest rate would be insufficient in the calculation of the effect of monetary policy on loan interest rates of the banks, Government Dept Securities&rsquo / premiums are used instead of the political interest rates in this study to make it reflect the policies of central bank more clearly as a whole. Among the Government Dept Securities that have different maturity structure, benchmark bonds that are adapted to the expected political interest rate changes and that react to the unexpected interest rate changes at the high rate (reaction coefficient 0.983) are used. In order to weight the cointegration relation between interest rates, unrestricted error correction model is established and it is determined by Bound Test that there is a long-term relation between each interest rate and interest rate of benchmark bond. After a cointegration relation is determined among the serials, autoregressive distributed lag model is used to determine the level of transitivity and it is determined that monetary policy decisions affect the banking interest rate at 77% level and by 13 weeks delay on average.

Na economia brasileira, a combinação de tributação e gastos correntes elevados é apontada como um dos principais obstáculos ao maior crescimento econômico do país. Para sair deste ciclo pernicioso, o governo precisa reduzir o seu nível de gastos para, deste modo, abrir espaço à diminuição da carga tributária. A redução de gastos parece ser uma tarefa difícil de ser implementada em curto prazo no país, dependendo de reformas como a da Previdência, porém um tema que vem ganhando terreno nos últimos anos refere-se à qualidade dos gastos públicos e da tributação, e em última instância, os impactos dos componentes fiscais sobre o crescimento no Brasil. O objetivo principal deste trabalho de dissertação é analisar a relação linear e nãolinear entre os componentes de gastos do governo e o crescimento econômico. Para isso, foram utilizadas as metodologias de estimação por mínimos quadrados aplicada a dados em painel e o modelo de defasagens distribuídas com termo auto-regressivo (modelo ARDL). Neste último modelo, incluem-se a carga tributária e a taxa de investimento. Na especificação linear dos modelos de dados em painel e ARDL encontra-se o consenso de que as parcelas de gastos em educação e transportes são favoráveis ao crescimento da economia. De acordo com o modelo de dados em painel, a atual parcela de gastos correntes é prejudicial ao crescimento da economia. Por outro lado, a atual parcela de gastos de capital encontra-se abaixo do ponto de máximo, implicando que o aumento dos gastos de capital gera efeitos positivos sobre o crescimento. Esta mesma conclusão é encontrada no modelo ARDL para a taxa de investimento. Já o patamar atual da carga tributária encontra-se substancialmente acima dos pontos de máximo calculados no modelo ARDL, indicando a necessidade de sua redução. / In the brazilian economy, the combination of high tax burden and current expenditures is pointed out as one of the main obstacles to the higher economic growth of the country. To get out of this pernicious cycle, the government needs to reduce his level of expenditures to open scope for a reduction of the tax burden. The reduction of expenditures seems to be a difficulty task to be implemented, in the short term, in Brazil, depending on structural reforms as, for example, the Social Security Reform, however, a subject that is becoming more relevant in the last years refers to the quality of public expenditures and taxation, and we could say, the impact of fiscal components on brazilian growth. The main objective of this text is to analyze the linear and non-linear relationship among the components of government expenditures and the economic growth. In this sense, we use the minimum square method applied to panel data, and the Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). In the linear specification of the panel data and ARDL models we reach the consensus that expenditures on education and transport are favorable to economic growth. According to the panel data model, the composition of current expenditures is harmful to economic growth. On the other hand, the composition of capital expenditures is below the maximum point, implying that the increase of capital expenditures has positive effects on economic growth. We get to the same conclusion on the ARDL model regarding the investment rate. At last, but not least, the current level of the tax burden is substantially above the maximum points calculated in the ARDL model, indicating the necessity of its reduction.

Na economia brasileira, a combinação de tributação e gastos correntes elevados é apontada como um dos principais obstáculos ao maior crescimento econômico do país. Para sair deste ciclo pernicioso, o governo precisa reduzir o seu nível de gastos para, deste modo, abrir espaço à diminuição da carga tributária. A redução de gastos parece ser uma tarefa difícil de ser implementada em curto prazo no país, dependendo de reformas como a da Previdência, porém um tema que vem ganhando terreno nos últimos anos refere-se à qualidade dos gastos públicos e da tributação, e em última instância, os impactos dos componentes fiscais sobre o crescimento no Brasil. O objetivo principal deste trabalho de dissertação é analisar a relação linear e nãolinear entre os componentes de gastos do governo e o crescimento econômico. Para isso, foram utilizadas as metodologias de estimação por mínimos quadrados aplicada a dados em painel e o modelo de defasagens distribuídas com termo auto-regressivo (modelo ARDL). Neste último modelo, incluem-se a carga tributária e a taxa de investimento. Na especificação linear dos modelos de dados em painel e ARDL encontra-se o consenso de que as parcelas de gastos em educação e transportes são favoráveis ao crescimento da economia. De acordo com o modelo de dados em painel, a atual parcela de gastos correntes é prejudicial ao crescimento da economia. Por outro lado, a atual parcela de gastos de capital encontra-se abaixo do ponto de máximo, implicando que o aumento dos gastos de capital gera efeitos positivos sobre o crescimento. Esta mesma conclusão é encontrada no modelo ARDL para a taxa de investimento. Já o patamar atual da carga tributária encontra-se substancialmente acima dos pontos de máximo calculados no modelo ARDL, indicando a necessidade de sua redução. / In the brazilian economy, the combination of high tax burden and current expenditures is pointed out as one of the main obstacles to the higher economic growth of the country. To get out of this pernicious cycle, the government needs to reduce his level of expenditures to open scope for a reduction of the tax burden. The reduction of expenditures seems to be a difficulty task to be implemented, in the short term, in Brazil, depending on structural reforms as, for example, the Social Security Reform, however, a subject that is becoming more relevant in the last years refers to the quality of public expenditures and taxation, and we could say, the impact of fiscal components on brazilian growth. The main objective of this text is to analyze the linear and non-linear relationship among the components of government expenditures and the economic growth. In this sense, we use the minimum square method applied to panel data, and the Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). In the linear specification of the panel data and ARDL models we reach the consensus that expenditures on education and transport are favorable to economic growth. According to the panel data model, the composition of current expenditures is harmful to economic growth. On the other hand, the composition of capital expenditures is below the maximum point, implying that the increase of capital expenditures has positive effects on economic growth. We get to the same conclusion on the ARDL model regarding the investment rate. At last, but not least, the current level of the tax burden is substantially above the maximum points calculated in the ARDL model, indicating the necessity of its reduction.

Na economia brasileira, a combinação de tributação e gastos correntes elevados é apontada como um dos principais obstáculos ao maior crescimento econômico do país. Para sair deste ciclo pernicioso, o governo precisa reduzir o seu nível de gastos para, deste modo, abrir espaço à diminuição da carga tributária. A redução de gastos parece ser uma tarefa difícil de ser implementada em curto prazo no país, dependendo de reformas como a da Previdência, porém um tema que vem ganhando terreno nos últimos anos refere-se à qualidade dos gastos públicos e da tributação, e em última instância, os impactos dos componentes fiscais sobre o crescimento no Brasil. O objetivo principal deste trabalho de dissertação é analisar a relação linear e nãolinear entre os componentes de gastos do governo e o crescimento econômico. Para isso, foram utilizadas as metodologias de estimação por mínimos quadrados aplicada a dados em painel e o modelo de defasagens distribuídas com termo auto-regressivo (modelo ARDL). Neste último modelo, incluem-se a carga tributária e a taxa de investimento. Na especificação linear dos modelos de dados em painel e ARDL encontra-se o consenso de que as parcelas de gastos em educação e transportes são favoráveis ao crescimento da economia. De acordo com o modelo de dados em painel, a atual parcela de gastos correntes é prejudicial ao crescimento da economia. Por outro lado, a atual parcela de gastos de capital encontra-se abaixo do ponto de máximo, implicando que o aumento dos gastos de capital gera efeitos positivos sobre o crescimento. Esta mesma conclusão é encontrada no modelo ARDL para a taxa de investimento. Já o patamar atual da carga tributária encontra-se substancialmente acima dos pontos de máximo calculados no modelo ARDL, indicando a necessidade de sua redução. / In the brazilian economy, the combination of high tax burden and current expenditures is pointed out as one of the main obstacles to the higher economic growth of the country. To get out of this pernicious cycle, the government needs to reduce his level of expenditures to open scope for a reduction of the tax burden. The reduction of expenditures seems to be a difficulty task to be implemented, in the short term, in Brazil, depending on structural reforms as, for example, the Social Security Reform, however, a subject that is becoming more relevant in the last years refers to the quality of public expenditures and taxation, and we could say, the impact of fiscal components on brazilian growth. The main objective of this text is to analyze the linear and non-linear relationship among the components of government expenditures and the economic growth. In this sense, we use the minimum square method applied to panel data, and the Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). In the linear specification of the panel data and ARDL models we reach the consensus that expenditures on education and transport are favorable to economic growth. According to the panel data model, the composition of current expenditures is harmful to economic growth. On the other hand, the composition of capital expenditures is below the maximum point, implying that the increase of capital expenditures has positive effects on economic growth. We get to the same conclusion on the ARDL model regarding the investment rate. At last, but not least, the current level of the tax burden is substantially above the maximum points calculated in the ARDL model, indicating the necessity of its reduction.

Thesis (M. Com. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2019 / International trade has been identified by many economists to be an engine for growth and development. There has been an increase in the number of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements across the globe. Trade has gained significant attention among developed and developing countries and it hugely attributed to the impact of technology and globalisation. The study employs autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to analyse The effects of international trade on economic growth in South Africa from (2000Q1 to 2017Q1) and economic review. The quarterly time series data from 2000Q1 to 2017Q1 is sourced from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and Quantec Easy Data. This study is envisaged to provide a better understanding on the relationship between South African economic growth and international trade. The findings brought light on how growth can be improved in South Africa. The unit root tests indicate a mixture of I(0) and I(1) variables which implied the employment of the ARDL approach. The cointegration model emphasizes the long-run equilibrium relationship between the dependant and independent variables. The findings reveal that exchange rate and import are positively related with GDP while one export is negatively related to it. The conclusion from this work is that there is correlation between GDP and its regressors. Since the results show that South African export have negative impact on growth, it is recommended that South African government must promote trading of goods and services internally and not focus much on exporting its primary goods and services abroad because it weakens the economy. It is recommended that South Africa must produce or export according to the need of the industry, so that the country benefit in return. Lastly, it is recommended that South Africa must support local industries and firms to create more employment opportunities and start programmes that will make youth to be active in businesses and reduce over reliance to the government.

This study was motivated by low rates of economic growth and insufficient investment in infrastructure to balance infrastructure backlogs and growth that the South African economy has been facing in recent years. The main objective of the study is to examine the impact of disaggregated government investment and consumption spending on economic growth in South Africa using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and Error Correction Model (ECM). Annual time series data spanning the period 1983– 2017 was employed. Earlier studies conducted in South Africa measured the impact of aggregated government expenditure on economic growth using different methodologies, including estimating procedures, model specifications and time frames. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to study the effect of disaggregated government investment spending on the South African economy. This study, therefore, examines the disaggregated government spending on education, health, defence and social protection along with other control variables. The ARDL cointegration test result indicates the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. The estimated ECM model reveals that the short-run impact of each explanatory variable is significant in explaining changes in economic growth in South Africa. These results will enable the spheres of government to formulate and adjust economic development policies that will produce the needed economic growth in line with the radical economic transformation programme in South Africa. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

This study uses annual data for the period 1975-2014 for South Africa and Botswana, and 1979-2013 for Lesotho to examine empirically the impact of trade openness on economic growth in these three South African Customs Union (SACU) countries. The motivation for this study is that SACU countries are governed by the common agreement for the union that oversees the movement of goods that enter the SACU area. However, although these countries are in a com-mon union, they have quite different levels of development. Based on the country’s level of development, Lesotho is a lower middle-income and least developed country, whereas Botswana and South Africa are upper middle-income economies. Thus, these disparities in the levels of economic development of SACU countries i are expected to have different implications in relation to the extent to which trade openness affects economic growth. It is within this background that the current study seeks to examine what impact trade openness has on economic growth in each of the three selected countries. To check the robustness of the empirical results, this study uses four equations based on four different indicators of trade openness to examine the linkage between trade openness and economic growth. While Equation 1, Equation 2 and Equation 3 employ trade-based indicators of openness, Equation 4 uses a modified version of the UNCTAD (2012a) trade openness index that incorporates differences in country size and geography. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling, the study found that the impact of trade openness on economic growth varies across the three SACU countries. Based on the results for the first three equations, the study found that trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in South Africa and Botswana, whereas it has no significant impact on economic growth in Lesotho. Based on Equation 4 results, the study found that after taking the differences in country size and geography into account, trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in Botswana, but an insignificant impact in South Africa and Lesotho. For South Africa and Botswana, the main recommendation from this study is that policy makers should pursue policies that promote total trade to increase economic growth in both the short and the long run. For Lesotho, the study recommends, among other things, the adoption of policies aimed at enhancing human capital and infrastructural development as well as the broadening of exports, so as to enable the economy to grow to a threshold level necessary for the realisation of significant gains from trade. / Economics