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A micro approach to mathematical arms race analysisAboughoushe, Adam 05 1900 (has links)
Even with the end of the Cold War, the question, Were the United States and the
Soviet Union engaged in an action-reaction arms race? remains important and controversial.
The bulk of empirical mathematical arms race research suggests that the US and USSR were
not so engaged. Indeed, most such research into the matter suggests that US arms acquisitions
were driven overwhelmingly by internal or domestic forces, as were Soviet arms acquisitions.
Given the longstanding political, economic and military rivalry, between the US and USSR,
the finding that they were not engaged in an arms race is perplexing. This is particularly so
with respect to nuclear weapons acquisitions. Orthodox nuclear deterrence theory clearly
posits that the attempt by each side to maintain a balance of nuclear forces with the other and
hence deter the other from launching a first-strike should result in an action-reaction nuclear
arms race. Why, then, does the overwhelming mass of quantitative research suggest that the
opposite was true, in practice, in the US-Soviet case?
The problem, in part, has been that researchers have been using underspecified
mathematical models of action-reaction arms race interaction. The most famous of these
models is Richardson’s 1960 action-reaction model. Researchers have long been aware that
Richardson’s model is underspecified and as such that it may not be capable of revealing the
true nature of US-Soviet military interaction. Since the late 1960s, arms race researchers have attempted to move beyond Richardson’s simple arms race specification. Several new
approaches to arms race analysis have subsequently emerged: the game theoretic approach,
the economic (stock adjustment) approach, and the expectations (adaptive, extrapolative, and
rational) approach. Taken individually, neither of these approaches has, however, yielded
much fruit.
In this dissertation, the game, stock adjustment, and rational expectations approaches
were combined for the first time into a single, more comprehensive, analytical approach and
a new action-reaction arms race model was derived, which we have named the GSR Model.
In addition, it was argued that a new approach was needed for testing arms race models.
Arms races are generally seen as competitions of total armed versus total armed might. Arms
race models have, accordingly, been tested against data on states’ annual military
expenditures. We argued instead that an arms race is made of several subraces, the object of
each subrace being a specific weapons system and a specific counter weapons system,
deployed by an opponent and designed to thwart the former’s political and military effect.
Models should, then, be tested for each subrace in a given arms race, that is, against data on
weapons system-counter weapons system deployment levels. Time frames for the analysis of a given weapons system-counter weapons system competition should be set to accord with
the period in which those systems were dominant in the military calculations of the
competing states.
In effect, we have specified an alternative approach to mathematical arms race
analysis, the micro approach to mathematical arms race analysis. The GSR Model was tested
against data on annual US and Soviet strategic nuclear warhead deployment levels,
— specifically, those onboard ICBMs (1960-71) and submarines (1972-87). The GSR model was
also tested against annual US-Soviet aggregate strategic nuclear warhead deployment data
(ICBM, SLBM and bomber based totals), 1967-84. Estimates of the GSR model suggest that
the US and USSR were in fact engaged in an action-reaction arms race over submarine
launched nuclear warheads. Regression analysis also indicates that the US and USSR strongly
interacted, asymmetrically, over ICBM based nuclear warheads. There appears to have been
no interaction over aggregate warhead deployments. Finally, the implications of these findings
for the maintenance of a stable nuclear deterrent were discussed. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate
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Analýza exportu zbrojního materiálu Škodových závodů do Jugoslávie ve 30. letech 20. století / Analysis of arms equipment export from Skoda Works Company to Yugoslavia in 1930sKárník, Jan January 2015 (has links)
The history of Czechoslovakia and his position played a key role in developement of weapon industry in the interwar period. Arms industry in Czechoslovakia in interwar period was represented mainly by Skoda Works Company. The 1930s ment for arms industry economic instability, but on the other hadn, it represented new opportunities as well. Weapon industry was strongly influenced by condition of economy of theirs business partnes from Little Entente and by political situation in neighboring countries. Business plans of Skoda Works company were lagrely influenced by czechoslovak gowernment. Gowernment of Czechoslovakia was using its economic policy as a part of its foreing affairs policy to strenghten role of Czechoslovakia as a leader of Little Entente. On the contrary, Skoda Works were using czechoslovak foreing policy for their own economic expansion to foreing markets.
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Problematika obchodu se zbraněmi (Mexiko-USA) / The issues of arms trade (Mexico-USA)Kučerová, Jana January 2012 (has links)
The Master's thesis deals with the issues of the arms trade between Mexico and USA, focusing on the arms trafficking. The first chapter introduces the topic in general and analyzes the current situation of the world market in small arms and light weapons. The second and third chapter describe the characteristics of arms trade and its legislative framework in both countries - USA, Mexico - define local specifics and identify main trading partners. Bilateral trade in SALW between USA and Mexico, its process and practice how the trading takes place, is described in fourth chapter. The impact of arms trade on both countries is defined in the fifth chapter together with designed proposals to help to restrict illegal arms trafficking between partners and to reduce its negative impacts.
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Vliv studené války na československý zbrojní průmysl v období normalizace / Czechoslovak Arms Industry During the Normalization Period and the Influence of Cold WarStibor, Jan January 2013 (has links)
The main subject of this diploma thesis is analysis of the czechoslovak arms industry during the normalization period. The study gives complete information about the facts, that had most vital influence on the main goals setting , giving arm industry its course and all the consequences of the economic development in the seventies - eighties. It is dedicated mainly to the management system, structure and dynamics of armaments, depending on the cold war development. As Czechoslovakia was included to the soviet sphere of influence, part of the thesis is dedicated to the integration into coalition economic and military political structures. Arms material export to the developed countries is represented by the analysis of international relations with Libia.
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The Prism of war : Shaw's treatment of war in Arms and the man and Heartbreak houseMatsuba, Stephen N. January 1987 (has links)
Many critics examine Shaw's plays in terms of the subjects they deal with, but they often ignore what aspects of these subjects Shaw draws on or how he uses them. One subject that appears in many of his works is war. This thesis examines Shaw's treatment of war in Arms and the Man and Heartbreak House, and attempts to discover a common element between them that reveals something not only about the plays themselves, but also about Shaw's drama in general.
The chapter on Arms and the Man notes how Shaw makes war a highly visible element of the play, but avoids dealing with issues directly related to war. Shaw does not draw on war itself, but on its image. The sources for Catherine's and Bluntschli's impressions
of both war and Sergius—Lady Butler's paintings, the military
melodrama and extravaganza, Tennyson's "Charge of the Light Brigade," and accounts of the Battle of Balaklava—indicate that the play's focus is not on war, but on how one perceives the world. This idea is further reinforced by Shaw's own views about idealism, romanticism, and realism.
Unlike Arms and the Man, war is an integral part of Heartbreak
House. Shaw uses elements from the British homefront during the First World War—the wasted lives of England's youth, the lies of the government and the press, and the potential for violence both on the front and at home during the conflict—to help create the play's deep sense of crisis and impending doom. But as with Arms and the Man, Heartbreak House is not a play about war. Whereas war is highly visible in the former, its presence is negligible
in the latter: there are no military characters or any clear indication that a war is in progress until the end of the play. Moreover, Shaw does not draw on sources related only to the war. Thus while Heartbreak House was born largely out of the despair of the First World War, its themes go beyond that conflict to deal with questions about the individual, the family, and the fabric of society itself.
This thesis concludes by briefly examining Saint Joan, and notes that it combines the two approaches to war found in Arms and the Man and Heartbreak House, but distances its intended audience—the English—by using a historical conflict where Englishmen are the enemy. In comparing the three plays' treatment of war, one can conclude that the common element in Shaw's treatment
of war is his distancing of an audience from the subject itself. Moreover, one discovers that this distancing is related to the nature of the subjects that Shaw uses for his plays. Only subjects that he believed were complex were suitable for creating his dramatic works. Therefore, it is fruitless for critics to examine Shaw's plays for his opinions about a subject; they should concentrate on how Shaw uses these subjects in his plays instead. / Arts, Faculty of / English, Department of / Graduate
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Pierre Elliott Trudeau and nuclear arms control : Canadian approaches to the nuclear world, 1978-84Goldie, Mary Lorraine January 1988 (has links)
The timeframe of 1978-1984, a period of critical importance in the development of the nuclear world, sets the boundaries for this analysis of Canadian nuclear arms control policy. The situation brought about by increasing hostility between the superpowers, and changes in doctrine and advances in technology that facilitated nuclear war-fighting scenarios, was extremely grave. Therefore it would seem appropriate for Canada, in its traditional role as mediator and middlepower devoted to easing the danger of world conflagration, to have taken an active stand in its nuclear arms control diplomacy. Such was not the case, as bureaucratic politics, cybernetic decision-making, and cognitive dissonance made adherence to the status quo, or minimal rhetorical changes, the order of the day. While that changed towards the end of the period under examination, there remained little substantive modification of policy, despite the growing threat of nuclear disaster.
Four examples of Canadian nuclear arms control policy are examined with the aid of official government documents and appropriate commentary from a variety of analysts. Canadian arms control policy at the two United Nations Special Sessions on Disarmament, the controversy over the question of testing the American Air-Launched Cruise Missile in Canada, and Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau's personal peace initiative provide a wealth of information that is used to illustrate the struggle of bureaucratic politics versus rational decision-making.
Some of the more influential theoretical and structural difficulties within the foreign policy-making process in Canada that posed real impediments to comprehensive analytical decision-making are presented. These problems are outlined in order to provide a framework for the analysis of the four policy situations. In the first three cases, the decision-making indicates the predominance of the bureaucracy's cybernetic conduct. In the last instance, the attempts of the Prime Minister to impose rational/analytical decision-making on the policy process caused him to actively circumvent the bureaucracy within Canada, but he was bested by external forces.
The thesis of this monograph is that Canadian nuclear arms control policy for much of this period was reactive, limited to well-crafted rhetoric, and oblivious to the changing nature of the strategic environment. The reasons for this policy behavior may be traced to external constraints imposed by the dynamics of the international system, the nonrationality of the nuclear world, and the weakness of Canada's influence vis-a-vis the superpowers. As well, the importance of not alienating the United States by too forceful a criticism was an essential consideration in the policy process due to the many issues of contention that already existed between Canada and the United States, and the vulnerability of Canada in economic terms to the negative reactions of its North American neighbour. When the Prime Minister did try to set policy and actively change the nuclear world via his personal peace initiative, the same factors and forces proved to be his undoing. In addition, the reactions on the international scene by some of the more powerful Western players indicate that Canada did not have the credibility to attempt such an influential role in the nuclear world. This response may have been prompted by Canada's minimal defence spending in recent years, or it may well have been the fate of a middlepower trying to exert influence in areas where the other nations were loathe to accept it. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate
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A Master's thesis consisting of 1. Acting book for the role of Nora Helmer in A doll's house; 2. Production log for the role of Raina in Arms and the manEdwards, Vivian-Lee January 1962 (has links)
Thesis (M.F.A)--Boston University. Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Fine Arts. Boston University, School of Fine and Applied Arts, June 1962.
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Under the influence Of arms: the foreign policy causes and consequences of arms transfersWillardson, Spencer L. 01 May 2013 (has links)
How are arms export choices made within a state? In this dissertation I use a foreign policy analysis framework to examine this question. I focus on examining each of the three primary levels of analysis in international relations as it relates to the main question. I begin with a typical international relations level and examine the characteristics of the two states that dominate the world arms trade: The United States and Russia. I then examine the full network of relations among all states in the international system that are involved in the sale or purchase of arms. To do this I use an Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) to examine these relations, which I derived from data on arms sales from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). I examine the arms sales in each decade from 1950 through 2010. In order to answer the question of how arms decisions are made within the state, I focus my inquiry on the United States and Russia. It is these states that have the practical capability to use arms transfers as a foreign policy tool. I examine the foreign policy making mechanisms in each of these states to determine how arms transfers can be used as a foreign policy tool. I examine and the bureaucratic institutions within each state and come up with a state ordering preference for how arms decisions are evaluated in each state. Finally, I use case studies to examine arms relations between the both the U.S. and Russia and three other states in each case. The other states were selected based on the pattern of sales between the two countries. I examine these sales to determine the impact of bureaucratic maneuvering and interest politics on the decision-making process within Russia and the United States. I find in my network analysis that the traditional measures of state power - military spending, regime type, and military alliances - do not account for the overall structure of the arms sale network. The most important factors in the formation of the arms sale network in each of the six decades that I study are specific configurations of triadic relations that suggest a continued hierarchy in the arms sale network. I find in my case study chapters that a simple model of state interest as a decision-making rule accounts for the decisions made by the different bureaucratic actors in the U.S. Russian arms sales are driven by a state imperative to increase Russia's market share, and there is high-level involvement in making different arms deals with other countries.
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Evaluace investičního projektu / Evaluation of Investment ProjectVepřek, Tomáš January 2013 (has links)
The thesis deals with a capital project in preparation of an existing manufacturing company. It evaluates profitability of the investment based on methods of investment efficiency assessment. The thesis utilizes an analysis of company’s financial health. Its goal is to assess the analysed company’s readiness for the planned investment. Individual methods are evaluated at the end of the paper, based on which further steps are recommended to the company.
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In search of international tort law : civil liability of arms manufacturers for indirect sales to embargoed conflict zonesSimonsz, David January 2007 (has links)
This dissertation seeks to demonstrate the practical possibilities of holding arms companies liable under the common law of torts as a possible instrument in support of the enforcement of public international law and international human rights law. The United Kingdom is used as primary example because its tort law has been widely spread across the world by colonialism, so any case that is successful in the UK may be successful in other common law countries with (relatively) little modification. This increases the relevance of this dissertation. / Thesis (LLM (Human Rights and Democratisation in Africa)) -- University of Pretoria, 2007. / A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Law University of Pretoria, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Masters of Law (LLM in Human Rights and Democratisation in Africa). Prepared under the supervision of Prof Alejandro Lorite of the Department of Law, American University - Cairo. / http://www.chr.up.ac.za/ / Centre for Human Rights / LLM
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