Zugl.: Siegen, Univ., Diss., 2007

Zugl.: Hannover, Univ., Diss., 2008

Thesis--Westfälischen Wilhelms-Universität. / Bibliography: p. 115-122.

Bachelor-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2005.

Bachelor-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2004.

Diss. Nr. 2979 Wirtschaftswiss. St. Gallen, 2004. / Literaturzverz.

Master-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2008.

<p>Runway and taxiway configuration could affect airport capacity and safety, and airline taxiing time and fuel consumption. In this study, a discrete-event stochastic simulation model is created to explore the impact of four different runway and taxiway choices on a fictional airport with parallel runways that have End-Around Taxiways (EAT) at each end. Scenario 1 represent the conventional runway and taxiway choices used in parallel runway systems, while Scenarios 2, 3, and 4 mimic three new choices that become possible because of the usage of the EAT. Three designed experiments are used to explore the influence of the four scenarios in terms of taxi time, fuel consumption, and number of runway crossings during high traffic periods, as well as the ability to cope with increases in the load level. </p> <p>Some main findings are: 1) using the outboard runway to land and the EAT as the taxi-in path would yield the shortest average taxi-out time, while the average taxi-in time is similar or longer than that in the conventional choice; 2) if arrival aircraft are allowed to land over an active EAT, using the outboard runway to take off and the EAT as the taxi-out path would show advantages in both the average taxi-in time and the average taxi-out time; 3) if the EAT is operated under current FAA regulation, using the outboard runway to take off and the EAT as the taxi-out path could still show advantages in the average taxi-in time, while the average taxi-out time is the longest during high arrival period; 4) the results of the average fuel consumption indicate similar trends with the results of the average taxi time; 5) using the EATs could either eliminate the number of runway crossings or reduce it significantly; 6) the taxi times with the use of EATs are more stable against the increases in the load level in comparison with the conventional choice.</p> <p>Safety and human factor issues related to allowing arrival aircraft to land over an active EAT are discussed, as well as some future research topics. This study may encourage airport operators and researchers to explore how to make full use of existing EATs. This study, along with future cost-benefit analyses based on the results of this research, would be a valuable reference for airports that consider constructing EATs in the future. </p>

Les études détaillées d'amas de galaxies confirmés à grands redshifts sont peu nombreuses. L’objectif de cette Thèse est d’établir le premier catalogue d'amas confirmés spectroscopiquement à grand redshift et, pour la première fois à ces redshifts, d’étudier de manière statistique les propriétés des galaxies membres des amas. Dans cette Thèse, nous caractérisons et étudions 20 candidats amas à redshifts 1.4 < z < 2.8 parmi les candidats les plus prometteurs de l’échantillon CARLA. Nous réduisons et analysons des données spectroscopiques grism sans fente et imagerie proche-infrarouge des amas candidats, obtenues avec le télescope spatial Hubble. Nous mesurons plus de 700 redshifts au sein des champs observés, et confirmons spectroscopiquement 16 amas CARLA dans l’intervalle 1.4 < z < 2.8; ces amas sont associés à des noyaux galactiques actifs à fortes émissions radios (RLAGN) en leur centre, par sélection. Cet effort fait plus que doubler le nombre d’amas confirmés à ces redshifts. Nous étudions également le taux de formation stellaire des galaxies membres des amas en fonction de leur masses stellaires, et de la distance aux RLAGN. Nous trouvons que les galaxies membres massives sont situées sous la séquence principale jusqu’à z=2, ce qui suggère déjà à ces redshifts une évolution accélérée des galaxies massives au sein des amas. Nous trouvons également une concentration plus importante de membres actifs à plus petits rayons des RLAGN, jusqu’à z=2. Ceci est en accord avec un renversement de la relation densité vs. taux de formation stellaire pour nos amas CARLA à 1.4 < z < 2.0, ce qui suggère que les amas CARLA représentent une phase de transition de l’évolution des galaxies au sein des amas. Nous étudions également les populations stellaires de deux de nos amas confirmés à redshift z=2.0. Nous analysons les relations couleurs-couleurs et couleurs-magnitudes de ces deux amas et montrons que l’une des structures à z=2 possède une séquence rouge de galaxies passives. Globalement, nos résultats démontrent que les amas CARLA représentent des structures riches comprenant des populations mixtes de galaxies évoluées et massives sans formation stellaire, et des galaxies actives formant des étoiles. Cet échantillon sans précédent de 16 amas confirmés spectroscopiquement dans l’intervalle de redshift 1.4 < z < 2.8 constitue un échantillon idéal pour étudier statistiquement la phase de transition des amas de galaxies, ainsi que les mécanismes de suppression de la formation stellaire. (Abrégé) / Detailed studies of high-redshift confirmed galaxy clusters are based on a few individual objects. In this Thesis, we therefore aim at building the first sample of spectroscopically confirmed clusters at high-redshifts and, for the first time at these redshifts, statistically infer cluster member galaxy properties. In this Thesis, we study and characterize 20 cluster candidates at redshifts 1.4 < z < 2.8, which represent the most promising cluster candidates from the CARLA sample. We reduce and analyze slitless grism spectroscopic and near-infrared imaging data of the fields, obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope. We measure redshifts for over 700 star-forming sources in the 20 fields, and we spectroscopically confirm 16 CARLA clusters in the range 1.4 < z < 2.8; by selection, these clusters are associated with powerful radio-loud active galactic nuclei (RLAGN) at their center. This effort alone more than doubles the number of confirmed clusters at these redshifts. We study cluster member star-formation rates (SFRs) as a function of their stellar masses and distances from the RLAGN. We find that massive members are located below their star-forming main-sequence up to z=2. This implies that the massive star-forming end of the cluster population already followed an accelerated evolution at these high redshifts. We also find an increasing concentration of star-forming members with smaller radii relative to the RLAGN, at all redshifts up to z=2. Our 1.4 < z < 2.0 cluster members are therefore consistent with a reversal of the SFR-density relation. This is a first evidence showing that CARLA clusters represent a transition phase for cluster galaxy evolution. We also study stellar populations of two of our confirmed CARLA clusters at z=2.0. We study their color-color and color-magnitude relations and show that one of the two structures is comprised of a z=2 red sequence of passive candidate members. Together, these results provide clear evidence that our confirmed CARLA clusters represent rich structures comprised of mixed populations, including both evolved, passive, massive galaxies, and galaxies with ongoing star formation. Together, this unprecedented sample of 16 confirmed clusters at 1.4 < z < 2.8 constitutes an ideal sample for further statistical investigation of the cluster transition phase, including study of quenching mechanisms. (Abridged)

[pt] A presente tese se insere no contexto de previsão de séries temporais. Nesse sentido, embora muitas abordagens tenham sido desenvolvidas, métodos simples como o de amortecimento exponencial costumam gerar resultados extremamente competitivos muitas vezes superando abordagens com maior nível de complexidade. No contexto previsão, papers seminais na área mostraram que a combinação de previsões tem potencial para reduzir de maneira acentuada o erro de previsão. Especificamente, a combinação de previsões geradas por amortecimento exponencial tem sido explorada em papers recentes. Apesar da combinação de previsões utilizando Amortecimento Exponencial poder ser feita de diversas formas, um método proposto recentemente e chamado de Bagged.BLD.MBB.ETS utiliza uma técnica chamada Bootstrap Aggregating (Bagging) em combinação com métodos de amortecimento exponencial para gerar previsões mostrando que a abordagem é capaz de gerar previsões mensais mais precisas que todos os benchmarks analisados. A abordagem era considerada o estado da arte na utilização de Bagging e Amortecimento Exponencial até o desenvolvimento dos resultados obtidos nesta tese. A tese em questão se ocupa de, inicialmente, validar o método Bagged.BLD.MBB.ETS em um conjunto de dados relevante do ponto de vista de uma aplicação real, expandindo assim os campos de aplicação da metodologia. Posteriormente, são identificados motivos relevantes para redução do erro de e é proposta uma nova metodologia que utiliza Bagging, Amortecimento Exponencial e Clusters para tratar o efeito covariância, até então não identificado anteriormente na literatura do método. A abordagem proposta foi testada utilizando diferentes tipo de séries temporais da competição M3, CIF 2016 e M4, bem como utilizando dados simulados. Os resultados empíricos apontam para uma redução substancial na variância e no erro de previsão. / [en] This thesis is inserted in the context of time series forecasting. In this sense, although many approaches have been developed, simple methods such as exponential smoothing usually produce extremely competitive results, often surpassing approaches with a higher level of complexity. Seminal papers in time series forecasting showed that the combination of forecasts has the potential to dramatically reduce the forecast error. Specifically, the combination of forecasts generated by Exponential Smoothing has been explored in recent papers. Although this can be done in many ways, a specific method called Bagged.BLD.MBB.ETS uses a technique called Bootstrap Aggregating (Bagging) in combination with Exponential Smoothing methods to generate forecasts, showing that the approach can generate more accurate monthly forecasts than all the analyzed benchmarks. The approach was considered the state of the art in the use of Bagging and Exponential Smoothing until the development of the results obtained in this thesis. This thesis initially deals with validating Bagged.BLD.MBB.ETS in a data set relevant from the point of view of a real application, thus expanding the fields of application of the methodology. Subsequently, relevant motifs for error reduction are identified and a new methodology using Bagging, Exponential Smoothing and Clusters is proposed to treat the covariance effect, not previously identified in the method s literature. The proposed approach was tested using data from three time series competitions (M3, CIF 2016 and M4), as well as using simulated data. The empirical results point to a substantial reduction in variance and forecast error.