Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2013. / The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is widely used in estimating cost of equity capital. CAPM relies on historical data to estimate beta which is subsequently used to calculate ex-ante returns. Several authors have highlighted anomalies with CAPM and have proposed various models that capture these anomalies. This study investigates the Market Derived Capital Asset Pricing Model (MCPM), an ex-ante model that uses traded option premium prices and implied volatility to determine ex-ante equity risk premium used in estimating cost of equity capital. The implied volatility captures future market risk expectation of a firm. This is of importance to corporate managers who need to establish appropriate hurdle rates when making capital budgeting decisions. Additionally, investors need to determine expected returns based on future risk outlook of an investment. Using data from the South African Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed firms’, a comparison of cost of equity capital estimates was done using CAPM, Fama and French Three-Factor Model and MCPM. The results show MCPM’s yields higher estimates compared to CAPM and Three-Factor Model.

Emerging markets have become important investment destination for international investors as they seek opportunities to grow and diversify their investment portfolios. At the same time, emerging markets are perceived to be riskier than developed markets. It is therefore imperative for the international investor to fully comprehend and appreciate the risk faced by their investments in the emerging markets and the drivers of the underlying their value. A significant amount of research has been carried out on the valuation of companies in emerging markets and the role country risk has in determining the final valuation price. Despite this, there is still no consensus amongst practitioners in the financial industry and academics on the best approach. The valuation methodologies currently employed vary significantly and in some cases involve making arbitrary adjustments based on “gut feel” with limited empirical evidence. This research study appraises existing emerging markets valuation frameworks such as the discounted cash flow model (DCF), including capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and its variants. It also looks at relative valuation and real option pricing framework with intention of proposing the “best practice” valuation framework for valuing companies in emerging markets. The general theory is that emerging markets are segmented from the developed world capital markets making portfolio optimisation across these markets difficult. Segmentation of emerging markets is as a result of inefficiency of the capital markets, in particular the inability of foreign investors to enter and exit the local capital markets at no extra costs. The emerging markets valuation frameworks are designed to address the inability to effectively diversify investments due to the segmentation of these markets. It was therefore pertinent that this study determines whether emerging markets are indeed segmented from world capital markets and therefore significantly riskier than developed markets. This part of the study was carried out by conducting both quantitative and qualitative analysis of the emerging capital markets. Quantitative analysis was done on the performances of twenty-seven emerging equity markets for the period between July 1998 and November 2008 and the results were compared with the US equity market analysis (United States was used in the study as the proxy for the world equity market) for the same period. The study used volatility of the markets as the measure of risk and the correlation to measure the level of integration. Qualitative analysis involved reviewing regulatory, legal and political risks of the different emerging markets. The results from this part of the study showed that emerging markets are indeed riskier than developed markets and are somewhat segmented from the world capital markets. Based on 4 this result, we concluded that the valuation frameworks in emerging markets should be adjusted or modified to incorporate the impact of country risk. A total of eleven different emerging markets valuation frameworks were appraised. The study reviewed the literature relating to the emerging markets valuation frameworks to establish their theoretical and empirical basis. The study also conducted qualitative and quantitative analysis of each of the eleven selected methods regarding relevance and practicality in the valuation of emerging market companies. Valuation models were developed from the different valuation frameworks, a process that included deriving different variants of the models such as the country risk premium. The qualitative analysis looked at the how practical is the valuation frameworks considering its variants. For quantitative analysis the emerging market valuation models were used to value ABSA Bank Group; Edgars Consolidated Stores Limited; and Standard Bank Group and outcomes of the valuation were compared with the final purchase price paid in recent corporate transactions involving these companies. The absolute difference between the notional valuation and the actual transaction price was used to rank the valuation frameworks, with smallest difference indicating the best fit. All the eleven emerging market valuation methodologies yielded results different from the purchase prices. Erb−Harvey−Viskanta (EHV) model had the best fit when compared with the actual purchase price. However, the study does not propose the usage of EHV as the “best practice” method because of weak theoretical basis. The study concludes that at least three to four methodologies should be used to derive a valuation range for purchase price negotiations

Thesis advisor: Ryan Chahrour / Expectations formation is central to macroeconomics. Households, firms, and policymakers must form expectations not only about fundamentals, but about what other agents’ beliefs are, because others’ beliefs will determine their actions. The three essays in this dissertation examine empirically and theoretically how agents use both public and private information to form expectations. The first two essays combine a models of optimizing behavior and forecasting with data on the macroeconomy, financial prices, and macroeconomic forecasts to examine the extent to which economic agents learn about the macroeconomy from financial prices and monetary policy actions. The third essay examines theoretically how members of a committee use public and private information to form beliefs when they care both about having accurate forecasts and coordinating actions with others. All three essays emphasize that frictions in expectations formation are a salient feature of the world, and understanding the extent and importance of those frictions is important for both positive and normative questions in macroeconomics and finance. Beliefs about the future determine the willingness of financial market participants to save and invest, and theory suggests they should value more highly assets which are expected to pay higher returns during recessionary periods when consumption is otherwise low. Hence, financial prices reflect macroeconomic expectations. In the first essay, titled "Macroeconomic Disagreement in Treasury Yields," I explore how agents with idiosyncratic, private information form beliefs about both the macroeconomy and the beliefs of other agents. Using data on United States Treasury debt, the macroeconomy, and individual inflation forecasts, I estimate the precision of bond traders’ information about the macroeconomy and how much they disagree with each other. I allow for traders to learn both from private signals and from asset prices, which aggregate the beliefs of all the traders in the market. I find that bond prices are moderately informative about macroeconomic variables, but are the source of most of the information traders have about monetary policy and the beliefs of others. In contrast to studies which assume full information, risk premia are much less important than slow-adjusting interest rate expectations for explaining the behavior of long-run yields. The most important signal for bond traders appears to be the Federal Reserve’s short-run rate, which encodes information about the macroeconomy and the central bank’s intended future policy. Nevertheless, the fact that traders held disparate beliefs about the macroeconomy, and especially about the long-run inflation target of the Federal Reserve, elevated long-term yields on average. The first essay demonstrates empirically that financial market participants learn about the macroeconomy from monetary policy actions. However, it is silent on how monetary policymakers form beliefs about the macroeconomy, or how the information in monetary policy rates endogenously affects macroeconomic outcomes. In the second essay "Your Guess is as Good as Mine: Central Bank Information and Monetary Policy," I use data on private sector forecasts and forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board staff to examine the typical assumption of common information between firms and monetary policymakers. Using forecasts from a survey of professional forecasters and from the Federal Reserve Board staff, I show evidence against the typical assumption of common information between monetary policymakers and the private sector, and also that policymakers are, at best, only weakly better at forecasting than private forecasters. Based on this evidence, I augment an otherwise standard monetary policy model by relaxing the common information assumption. Instead, I assume there is idiosyncratic, private information among price-setting firms, and between firms and the central banker. Firms combine private information about aggregate conditions with the observed monetary policy rate to form expectations about fundamentals and the beliefs of rival firms. The central banker must form expectations about firms’ beliefs because those beliefs will determine inflation and overall economic activity. But as a result of their differences in information sets, firms must form expectations about other firms’ expectations, and what the central banks’ expectations of their expectations are. I examine the ability of this model to fit the data and find that the model can capture features of both firm and central bank inflation expectations, but in the absence of imperfect information among households, it is difficult to simultaneously match the forecast data and data on real activity. This result points to the sensitivity of models with dispersed information to the underlying assumptions about how central bankers will respond to exogenous shocks. The second chapter emphasized how the assumptions economists make regarding monetary policymakers’ information is critical for understanding their actions. Motivated by this example, my third chapter "Information Investment in a Coordination Game" explores theoretically how members of a committee who are uncertain about others’ beliefs decide on a binary action, and how their decision to pay close attention to public or private signals is related to their desire to accurately forecast versus coordinating their behavior with others. I show that when it is assumed that information decisions among committee members are symmetric - everyone pays the same amount of attention to the same things - there is a unique outcome of the coordination game. However, I further show that it is difficult to guarantee that committee members will all choose a symmetric allocation of information. Aside from the direct cost of acquiring better information, allocating attention to more accurate signals can harm welfare when coordination motives are dominant. In a set of numerical exercises, however, I show that it is possible for a unique equilibrium to exist, and that actions that do not have a large impact on the payoffs of committee members (such as changing the size of the committee) may nevertheless have large impacts on the accuracy of the committee’s forecasts. This suggests a possible tension between the welfare of the committee, which benefits from consensus, and the welfare of those affected by the committee’s actions, which likely depends on whether the committee takes the objectively correct action. My dissertation has important implications for both academic economists and policymakers. Understanding the sources of business cycle fluctuations and the determinants of asset prices requires grappling with the fact that people have differences in beliefs. Empirical evidence suggests that agents’ beliefs are shaped by both idiosyncratic forces and by public announcements and policy decisions, and economists’ models need to reflect these features of the world. Policy, too, is affected by the information available to policymakers, and to understand how policymakers have acted in the past and should act in the future, it is necessary to take seriously the ways their belief formation deviates from the full information rational expectations benchmark.

The objective of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of important market participants such as Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds and the Federal Reserve Bank on the equilibrium equity premium, risk free rate and asset volatility and to analyze the effect of these institutions on risk shifting, portfolio allocation and financial stability. Specific features of institutional investors and central banks as well as their role in financial markets are reviewed and analyzed in Chapter 1. In Chapter 2, it is shown that the competitive pressure to beat a benchmark may induce institutional trading behavior that exposes retail investors to tail risk. In our model, institutional investors are different from a retail investor because they derive higher utility when they outperform the benchmark. This forces institutions to take on leverage to over-invest in the benchmark. Institutions execute fire sales when the benchmark asset experiences negative shocks. This behavior increases market volatility, raising the tail risk exposure of the retail investor. Nevertheless, ex-post, tail risk is only short lived, all investors survive in the long run under standard conditions, and the most patient investor dominates in the sense that she has the highest consumption wealth ratio. Ex-ante, however, benchmarking is welfare reducing for the retail investor, and beneficial only to the impatient institutional investor. Chapter 3 presents an analysis on how monetary authorities seeking to stabilize inflation, output and smooth interest rates distort the term structure of interest rates and prices of risk relative to an economy where central authorities adjust the money supply without taking into consideration the slope of the yield curve. Closed-form expressions for all equilibrium quantities are presented and the impact of quantitative easing on prices, risk premium and volatility of financial markets instruments, such as stocks and bonds, are evaluated. The changes in macroeconomic variables such as consumption, money demand and investment policies are also investigated. Under the adopted parametrization, quantitative easing is welfare improving. In addition, quantitative easing increases nominal bond and equity volatility, while reducing both real and nominal bond yields for all maturities.

In this dissertation, I consider a range of topics in bankruptcy, credit risk and asset pricing. The first chapter proposes a structural-equilibrium model to examine some economic implications arising from voluntary filing of Chapter 11. The results suggest that conflict of interests (between debtors and creditors) arising from the voluntary filing option causes countercyclical losses in firm value. The base calibration shows that these losses amount to approximately 5% of the ex-ante firm value and are twice those produced by a model without incorporating the business cycles. Furthermore, besides countercyclical liquidation costs as in Chen (2010) and Bhamra, Kuehn and Strebulaev (2010), countercyclical pre-liquidation distress costs and the conflict of interests help to generate reasonable credit spreads, levered equity premium and leverage ratios. The framework nests several important models and prices the firm's contingent claims in closed-form. The second chapter proposes a structural credit risk model with stochastic asset volatility for explaining the credit spread puzzle. The base calibration indicates that the model helps explain the credit spread puzzle with a reasonable volatility risk premium. The model fits well to the dynamics of CDS spreads and equity volatility in the data. The third chapter develops a consumption-based learning model to study the interactions among aggregate liquidity, asset prices and macroeconomic variables in the economy. The model generates reasonable risk-free rates, equity premium, real yield curve, and asset prices in equity and bond markets. The base calibration implies a long-term yield spread of around 185 basis points and a liquidity premium of around 55 basis points for an average firm in the economy. The calibrated yield spread and liquidity premium are consistent with the empirical estimates.

This thesis focuses on five of the founding nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The countries are Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines (ASEAN5). Asset pricing for the ASEAN5 equity markets is the main focus of this thesis, although we also develop vector error correction models (VECM) for GDP, trade and local equity market returns for the ASEAN5. While this allows further analysis of the robustness of asset pricing models, it also facilitates study of the fundamental links that exist within these economies. The traditional CAPM and the four factor-model that include market, size, value and momentum effects (Fama and French, 1993; Carhart, 1997) are employed in testing the variation in size/book-to-market equity (size-BTME) and industry portfolio returns for these markets for the period from January 1990 to March 2006. Three macro factors as well as world excess returns are then added to the basic four-factor asset pricing model. These macro factors include unexpected GDP, unexpected total trade and unexpected equity market returns, which are derived from VECM or VAR estimates for ASEAN5 GDP, total trade and equity market returns. This model is referred to as the macro-factor model. The results suggest that the explanatory power of the four-factor model consistently exceeds those of the one-factor CAPM in explaining size-BTME and industry portfolio returns. Further, the macro-factor model analysis suggests that collectively, this model does not substantially improve the explanatory power of the basic four-factor model, suggesting that the variation in portfolio returns is mostly captured by the four-factor model. There is some cross-country variation in these results. Regardless, these macro factors − taken as a group or individually − are statistically significant, particularly for Thailand and Malaysia. In addition, the cointegration test results document evidence of long-run linkages for the equity markets within the ASEAN5. This is also true for GDP within the ASEAN5. In both cases, closer links prevail in the post-crisis period. This is not the case for trade where there is little consistent evidence of close links between the countries. Mixed results are found for different ASEAN5 trade measures where the linkages for total trade, import and exports vary substantially according to the selected period of study, whether full period, pre-crisis or post-crisis period.

<p>Hedgefonder är ett relativt nytt investeringsalternativ vars målsättning är att leverera positiv avkastning, i de flesta fall till låg risk, oberoende av marknadens utveckling. Med ledning av portföljvalsteorin och CAPM, som är en modell för att utvärdera kapitaltillgångar, ska uppsatsen besvara om hedgefonder lyckas med sitt mål. Vi fokuserar på perioden mars 2000 till april 2006, som inkluderar både börsnedgång och uppgång, för att kunna studera om hedgefonderna lyckas med målsättningen att generera positiv avkastning oavsett börsklimat.</p><p>Till skillnad från de flesta andra studier som syftar till att utvärdera hedgefonders prestationer i jämförelse med traditionella fonder kommer jämförelsen göras i förhållande till SIX Return Index, SIXRX. SIXRX är ett marknadsindex som speglar kursutvecklingen för bolag på börsens gamla A- samt O-lista och som inkluderar återinvesterad utdelning. I uppsatsen har vi kommit fram till att de valda hedgefonderna lyckas med målsättningen att alstra en positiv avkastning oavsett börsens utveckling.</p>

Hedgefonder är ett relativt nytt investeringsalternativ vars målsättning är att leverera positiv avkastning, i de flesta fall till låg risk, oberoende av marknadens utveckling. Med ledning av portföljvalsteorin och CAPM, som är en modell för att utvärdera kapitaltillgångar, ska uppsatsen besvara om hedgefonder lyckas med sitt mål. Vi fokuserar på perioden mars 2000 till april 2006, som inkluderar både börsnedgång och uppgång, för att kunna studera om hedgefonderna lyckas med målsättningen att generera positiv avkastning oavsett börsklimat. Till skillnad från de flesta andra studier som syftar till att utvärdera hedgefonders prestationer i jämförelse med traditionella fonder kommer jämförelsen göras i förhållande till SIX Return Index, SIXRX. SIXRX är ett marknadsindex som speglar kursutvecklingen för bolag på börsens gamla A- samt O-lista och som inkluderar återinvesterad utdelning. I uppsatsen har vi kommit fram till att de valda hedgefonderna lyckas med målsättningen att alstra en positiv avkastning oavsett börsens utveckling.

<p>This dissertation consists of three essays on asymmetric correlations in financial markets. In the first essay, I have two main contributions. First, I show that dividend growth rates have symmetric correlations. Second, I show that asymmetric correlations are different than correlations being counter-cyclical. The correlation asymmetry I study in this dissertation should not be confused with correlations being counter-cyclical, i.e. being higher during recessions than during booms. I show that while counter-cyclical correlations can simply be explained by counter-cyclical aggregate market volatility, the correlation asymmetry with respect to joint upside and downside movements of returns are not just due to the heightened market volatility during those times. </p><p>In the second essay I present a model in order to explain the correlation asymmetry observed in the data. This is the first paper to offer an explanation for observed correlation asymmetry. I formalize the explanation using an equilibrium model. The model is useful to understand both the cross-section and time-series of correlation asymmetry. By the means of my model, we can answer questions about why some stocks have higher correlation asymmetry, and why the correlation asymmetry was higher during 1990s? In the model asset prices respond the realization of dividends and news about the future. However, price responses to news are asymmetric and this asymmetry is endogenous. Price responses are endogenously stronger conditional on bad news than conditional on good news. This asymmetry also generates the observed correlation asymmetry. The price responses are asymmetric due to the ambiguity about the news quality. Information about the quality of the signal is incomplete in the sense that the exact precision of the signal is unknown; it is only known to be in an interval, which makes the representative agent treat news as ambiguous. To model ambiguity aversion, I use Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989)'s max-min expected utility representation. The agent has a set of beliefs about the quality of signals, and the ambiguity-averse agent behaves as if she maximizes expected utility under a worst-case scenario. This incomplete information about the news quality, together with ambiguity-averse agents, generates an asymmetric response to news. Endogenous worst-case scenarios differ depending on the realization of news. When observing ``bad" news, the worst-case scenario is that the news is reliable and the prices of trees decrease strongly. On the other hand, when ``good news" is observed, under the worst-case scenario the news is evaluated as less reliable, and thus the price increases are mild. Therefore, price responses are stronger conditional on a negative signal and this asymmetry creates a higher correlation conditional on a negative signal than conditional on a positive signal. I also show that the results are robust to the smooth ambiguity aversion representation.</p><p>Motivated by the model, I uncover a new empirical regularity that is unknown in the literature. I show that correlation asymmetry is related to idiosyncratic volatility: the higher the idiosyncratic volatility, the higher the correlation asymmetry. This novel empirical finding is also useful to understand the time-series and cross-sectional variation in correlation asymmetry. Stocks with smaller market capitalizations have greater correlation asymmetry compared to stocks with higher market capitalization. However, an explanation for this finding has been lacking. According to the explanation offered in this paper, smaller size stocks have greater correlation asymmetry compared to bigger size stocks because small size stocks tend to have higher idiosyncratic volatilities compared to bigger size stocks. In the time-series, correlation asymmetry shows quite significant variation as well. The average correlation asymmetry is especially high for the 1990s and decreases significantly at the beginning of the 2000s. This pattern in times-series can also be explained in terms of the time-series behavior of idiosyncratic volatilities. Several papers including Brandt et al. (2010), document higher idiosyncratic volatilities during 1990s while the aggregate volatility stays fairly stable. Basically, the high idiosyncratic volatilities during the 1990s also caused greater correlation asymmetry. </p><p>In the third essay, I study the correlation of returns in government bond markets. Similar to the findings in equity markets, I show that there is some evidence for asymmetric correlations in government bond markets. First, I show that the maturity structure matters for correlation asymmetry in bonds markets: Unlike long-maturity bonds, shorter-maturity bonds tend to have asymmetric correlations. Second, I show that the correlation asymmetry observed in European bond markets disappears with the formation of a common currency area. Lastly, I study the correlation between equity and bond returns in different countries. For long-maturity bonds, correlations with the domestic equity returns are asymmetric for half of the countries in the sample, including the U.S. These findings show that results on asymmetric correlations from equity markets can generalize, at least to some extent, to other financial markets.</p> / Dissertation

The research is conducted through a quantitative study based on data collected from the Copenhagen Stock Exchange between 2003 and 2011. Our primary purpose was to ascertain whether illiquidity was priced in the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. Illiquidity has been shown as a difficult concept to measure as it is not an observable variable in itself. We show that illiquidity can be measured using Amihud’s (2002) ILLIQ-measure. We investigated the relationship between asset pricing models and illiquidity. We provided an in depth look into illiquidity and past research involving liquidity and asset pricing as well as a thorough theoretical background concerning relevant academic theory. Though our empirical analysis we found evidence which supports the pricing of illiquidity in the Copenhagen Stock Exchange.