Linear dimensionality reduction techniques, notably principal component analysis, are widely used in climate data analysis as a means to aid in the interpretation of datasets of high dimensionality. These hnear methods may not be appropriate for the analysis of data arising from nonlinear processes occurring in the climate system. Numerous techniques for nonlinear dimensionality reduction have been developed recently that may provide a potentially useful tool for the identification of low-dimensional manifolds in climate data sets arising from nonlinear dynamics. In this thesis I apply three such techniques to the study of El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and thermocline depth, comparing observational data with simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models from the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 1998. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves [161]-166).

Reanalysis products are widely used to study the land-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon fluxes, and have been evaluated using in situ data above or below ground. Here measurements for several years at five flux tower sites in the U.S. (with a total of 315,576 hours of data) are used for the coupled evaluation of both below- and above-ground processes from three global reanalysis products and six global land data assimilation products. All products show systematic errors in precipitation, snow depth, and the timing of the melting and onset of snow. Despite the biases in soil moisture, all products show significant correlations with observed daily soil moisture for the periods with unfrozen soil. While errors in 2 meter air temperature are highly correlated with errors in skin temperature for all sites, the correlations between skin and soil temperature errors are weaker, particularly over the sites with seasonal snow. While net shortwave and longwave radiation flux errors have opposite signs across all products, the net radiation and ground heat flux errors are usually smaller in magnitude than turbulent flux errors. On the other hand, the all-product averages usually agree well with the observations on the evaporative fraction, defined as the ratio of latent heat over the sum of latent and sensible heat fluxes. This study identifies the strengths and weaknesses of these widely-used products, and helps understand the connection of their errors in above- versus below-ground quantities.

<p>This study examines whether and how land-atmosphere interactions can have an impact on the nocturnal convection over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) through numerical simulations of an intense nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 19-20 June 2007 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF V3.3) model. High-resolution nested simulations were conducted using realistic and idealized land-surfaces and two different planetary boundary layer parameterizations: Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ). All simulations show a persistent dry layer around 2 km during daytime and, despite ample instability in the boundary layer, the lack of a mesoscale lifting mechanism prevents precipitating convection in the daytime and in the evening ahead of the MCS passage after local midnight. Integral differences in timing and amount of MCS precipitation among observations and model results were examined in the light of daytime land-atmosphere interactions, nocturnal pre-storm environment, cold pool strength, squall line morphology and propagation speed, and storm rainfall. At the meso-gamma scale, differences in land-cover and soil type have as much of an effect on the simulated pre-storm environment as the choice of PBL parameterization: MYJ simulations exhibit strong sensitivity to changes in the land-surface in contrast to negligible impact in the case of YSU. A comparison of one-way and two-way nested MYJ results demonstrates that daytime land-atmosphere interactions modify the pre-storm environment remotely through advection of low-level thermodynamic features, which strongly impact the development phases of the MCS. At the end of the afternoon, as the boundary layer collapses, a more homogenous and deeper PBL (and stronger low level shear) is evident in the case of YSU as compared to MYJ when initial land-surface conditions are the same. For different land-surface conditions, propagation speed is generally faster, and organization (bow echo morphology) and cold pool strength enhanced when nocturnal PBL heights are higher and there is stronger low level shear in the pre-storm environment independently of the boundary layer parameterization. To elucidate the distinct roles of mesoscale transport and redistribution of low level instability (daytime remote feedbacks) and low level shear in the downwind pre-storm environment (nighttime local feedbacks), which is to separate the nonlinear land-atmosphere physical processes from PBL parameterization-specific effects on simulated storm dynamics, requires addressing the phase delay in storm development and propagation between the observed and the simulated MCS.</p><p>Another research objective was to examine the contribution of the land surface at short time scales. A second set of experiments was performed in which the land surface properties were homogenized every 5 minutes. The results show that surface effects are most pronounced during periods of insolation and, for the Yonsei University PBL parameterization, effects on the PBL height are most pronounced at the time of PBL collapse. Image processing techniques were found to be a useful measure of the spatial variation within fields. The results of this study show that, for this case, the integrated effect of the land surface can have a noticeable effect on convection, but such effects are not readily discernible at the 5-minute scale. While this study focused on the thermodynamic effects, further work should examine sensitivity to grid spacing and surface roughness.</p> / Thesis

The present work focuses on the sources and transport of water vapor to the La Plata Basin (LPB), and the role of groundwater dynamics on the simulation of hydrometeorological conditions over the basin. In the first part of the study an extension to the Dynamic Recycling Model (DRM) is developed to estimate the water vapor transported to the LPB from different regions in South America and the nearby oceans, and the corresponding contribution to precipitation over the LPB. It is found that more than 23% of the precipitation over the LPB is from local origin, while nearly 20% originates from evapotranspiration from the southern Amazon. Most of the moisture comes from terrestrial sources, with the South American continent contributing more than 62% of the moisture for precipitation over the LPB. The Amazonian contribution increases during the positive phase of El Niño and the negative phase of the Antarctic Oscillation. In the second part of the study the effect of a groundwater scheme on the simulation of terrestrial water storage, soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET) over the LPB is investigated. It is found that the groundwater scheme improves the simulation of fluctuations in the terrestrial water storage over parts of the southern Amazon. There is also an increase in the soil moisture in the root zone over those regions where the water table is closer to the surface, including parts of the western and southern Amazon, and of the central and southern LPB. ET increases in the central and southern LPB, where it is water limited. Over parts of the southeastern Amazon the effects of the groundwater scheme are only observed at higher resolution, when the convergence of lateral groundwater flow in local topographical depressions is resolved by the model. Finally, the effects of the groundwater scheme on near surface conditions and precipitation are explored. It is found that the increase in ET induced by the groundwater scheme over parts of the LPB induces an increase in near surface specific humidity, accompanied by a decrease in near surface temperature. During the dry season, downstream of the regions where ET increases, there is also a slight increase in precipitation, over a region where the model has a dry bias compared with observations. During the early rainy season, there is also an increase in the local convective available potential energy. Over the southern LPB, groundwater induces an increase in ET and precipitation of 13 and 10%, respectively. Over the LPB, the groundwater scheme tends to improve the warm and dry biases of the model. It is suggested that a more realistic simulation of the water table depth could further increase the simulated precipitation during the early rainy season.

Land surface processes play an important role when modeling weather and climate, and understanding and representing such processes in South America is a particular challenge because of the large variations in regional climate and surface features such as vegetation and soil. Numerical models have been used to explore the climate and weather of continental South America, but without appropriate initiation of land surface conditions model simulations can rapidly diverge from reality. This initiation problem is exacerbated by the fact that conventional surface observations over South America are scarce and biased towards the urban centers and coastal areas. This dissertation explores issues related to the apt representation of land surface processes and their impacts in numerical simulations with a regional atmospheric model (specifically the Eta model) over South America. The impacts of vegetation heterogeneity in regional weather forecast were first investigated. A South American Land Data Assimilation System (SALDAS) was then created analogous to that currently used in North America to estimate soil moisture fields for initializing regional atmospheric models. The land surface model (LSM) used in this SALDAS is the Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB). Precipitation fields are critical when calculating soil moisture and, because conventional surface observations are scarce in South America, some of the most important remote sensed precipitation products were evaluated as potential precipitation forcing for the SALDAS. Spin up states for SSiB where then compared with climatological estimates of land surface fields and significant differences found. Finally, an assessment was made of the value of SALDAS-derived soil moisture fields on Eta model forecasts. The primary result was that model performance is enhanced over the entire continent in up to 72h forecasts using SALDAS surface fields

An important property of the Earth's atmosphere is its ability to support wave motions, and indeed, waves exist throughout the Earth's atmosphere at all times and all locations. What is the importance of these waves? Imagine standing on the beach as water waves come crashing into you. In this case, the waves transport energy and momentum to you, knocking you off balance. Similarly, waves in the atmosphere crash, known as breaking, but what do they crash into? They crash into the atmosphere knocking the atmosphere off balance in terms of the winds and temperatures. Although the Earth's atmosphere is full of waves, they cannot be observed directly; however, their effects on the atmosphere can be observed. Waves can be detected in the winds and temperatures, as mentioned above, but also in pressure and density. In this dissertation, three different studies of waves, known as gravity waves, were performed at three different locations. For these studies, we investigate the size of the waves and in which direction they move. Using specialized cameras, gravity waves were observed in the middle atmosphere (50-70 miles up) over Alaska (for three winter times) and Norway (for one winter time). A third study investigated gravity waves at a much higher altitude (70 miles on up) using radar data from Alaska (for three years). These studies have provided important new information on these waves and how they move through the atmosphere. This in turn helps to understand in which direction these waves are crashing into the atmosphere and therefore, which direction the energy and momentum are going. Studies such as these help to better forecast weather and climate.

The interaction between climate and land-surface hydrology is extremely important in relation to long term water resource planning. This is especially so in the presence of global warming and massive land use change, issues which seem likely to have a disproportionate impact on developing countries. This thesis develops tools aimed at the study and prediction of climate effects on land-surface hydrology (in particular streamflow), which require a minimum amount of site specific data. This minimum data requirement allows studies to be performed in areas that are data sparse, such as the developing world. ¶ A simple lumped dynamics-encapsulating conceptual rainfall-runoff model, which explicitly calculates the evaporative feedback to the atmosphere, was developed. It uses the linear streamflow routing module of the rainfall-runoff model IHACRES, with a new non-linear loss module based on the Catchment Moisture Deficit accounting scheme, and is referred to as CMD-IHACRES. In this model, evaporation can be calculated using a number of techniques depending on the data available, as a minimum, one to two years of precipitation, temperature and streamflow data are required. The model was tested on catchments covering a large range of hydroclimatologies and shown to estimate streamflow well. When tested against evaporation data the simplest technique was found to capture the medium to long term average well but had difficulty reproducing the short-term variations. ¶ A comparison of the performance of three limited area climate models (MM5/BATS, MM5/SHEELS and RegCM2) was conducted in order to quantify their ability to reproduce near surface variables. Components of the energy and water balance over the land surface display considerable variation among the models, with no model performing consistently better than the other two. However, several conclusions can be made. The MM5 longwave radiation scheme performed worse than the scheme implemented in RegCM2. Estimates of runoff displayed the largest variations and differed from observations by as much as 100%. The climate models exhibited greater variance than the observations for almost all the energy and water related fluxes investigated. ¶ An investigation into improving these streamflow predictions by utilizing CMD-IHACRES was conducted. Using CMD-IHACRES in an 'offline' mode greatly improved the streamflow estimates while the simplest evaporation technique reproduced the evaporative time series to an accuracy comparable to that obtained from the limited area models alone. The ability to conduct a climate change impact study using CMD-IHACRES and a stochastic weather generator is also demonstrated. These results warrant further investigation into incorporating the rainfall-runoff model CMD-IHACRES in a fully coupled 'online' approach.

Land surface areas, which represent approximately 30% of the Earth’s surface, contribute largely to the complexity of the climate system by exchanging water, energy, momentum, and chemical materials with the overlying atmosphere. Because of the highly heterogeneous nature of the land surface and its rapid transformation due to human activities, future climate projections are less certain on regional scales than for the globe as a whole. The work presented in this dissertation is focused on a better understanding of regional-scale land–atmosphere interactions and their impacts on climate and air quality. Specifically, I concentrate my research on three typical regions in the United States (U.S.): 1) the Central U.S. (representing transition zones between arid and wet climates); 2) the Houston metropolitan region (representing a major urban area); and 3) the eastern U.S. (representing temperate forested regions). These regions are also chosen owing to the consideration of data availability. The first study concerns the roles of vegetation phenology and groundwater dynamics in regulating evapotranspiration and precipitation over the transition zones in summer months. It is found that the warm-season precipitation in the Central U.S. is sensitive to latent heat fluxes controlled by vegetation dynamics. Groundwater enhances the persistence of soil moisture memory from rainy periods to dry periods by transferring water to upper soil layers through capillary forces. Enhancement in soil moisture facilitates vegetation persistence in dry periods, producing more evaporation to the atmosphere and resulting in enhanced precipitation, which then increases soil moisture. The second study compares the impacts of future urbanization and climate change on regional air quality. The results show that the effect of land use change on surface ozone (O3) is comparable to that of climate change, but the details differ across the domain. The third study deals with the formation and distributions of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) — a largely overlooked but potentially important component in the climate system. Under future different climate scenarios, I found that biogenic emissions — an important precursor of SOA — are expected to increase everywhere over the U.S., with the largest increase found in the southeastern U.S. and the northwestern U.S., while changes in SOA do not necessarily follow those in biogenic emissions. Other factors such as partitioning coefficients, atmospheric oxidative capability, primary organic carbon, and anthropogenic emissions also play a role in SOA formation. Direct and indirect impacts from climate change complicate the future SOA formation. / text

Hydraulic conductivity of variably-saturated soils is critical to understanding processes at the land surface. Yet measuring it over an area comparable to the resolution of land-surface models is fraught because of its strong spatial and temporal variations, which render point measurements nearly useless. We derived unsaturated hydraulic conductivity at the horizontal scale of hectometers and the vertical scale of decimeters by analyzing trends in soil moisture measured using the cosmic-ray neutron method. The resulting effective hydraulic conductivity remains close to its value at saturation over approximately half of the saturation range and then plummets. It agrees with the aggregate of 36 point measurements near saturation, but becomes progressively higher at lower water contents; the difference is potentially reconcilable by upscaling of point measurements. This study shows the feasibility of the cosmic-ray method, highlights the importance of measurement scale, and provides a route toward better understanding of land-surface processes.