In this thesis, I explore the climate system's response to symmetric abrupt and transient CO₂ forcing across a range of concentrations, from ⅛ ⨉ to 8⨉CO₂, relative to pre-industrial levels. I use two CMIP6 class models: the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) model configuration and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1-G (GISS-E2.1-G). I use a hierarchy of (1) fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice-land, (2) slab ocean, and (3) prescribed sea surface temperature simulations to analyze and support the findings. First, I find an asymmetric response in global mean surface air temperature (𝚫𝜯_s) and effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) between colder and warmer experiments. The 𝚫𝜯_s response at 8⨉CO₂ is more than a third larger than the corresponding cooling at ⅛⨉CO₂. I attribute this assymetry primarily due to the non-logarithmic CO₂ forcing, not to changes in the radiative feedbacks. Second, I identify a non-monotonic response of EffCS in the warmer scenarios, with a minimum occurring at 4⨉CO₂ (3⨉CO₂) in CESM-LE (GISS-E2.1-G). This minimum in the warming simulations is associated with a non-monotonicity in the radiative feedback. Similar non-monotonic responses in Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, precipitation, the latitude of zero precipitation-minus-evaporation, and the strength of the Hadley cell are also identified. Comparing the climate response over the same CO₂ range between fully coupled and slab-ocean versions of the same models, I demonstrate that the climate system’s non-monotonic response is linked to changes in ocean dynamics, associated with a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Third, to establish the significance of North Atlantic cooling in driving the non-monotonic changes in the radiative feedback, I conducted additional atmosphere-only (AMIP) simulations using the same models but with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) restricted to different regions. Through these simulations, I uncovered that the minimum EffCS value, characterized by notably negative radiative feedbacks, primarily originates from relative cooling of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This cooling of SSTs contributes to an increase in low-level cloud content in the eastern region of the North Atlantic, subsequently leading to a pronounced negative (stabilizing) feedback response. Furthermore, I investigated the state dependence of the effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1/16 ⨉ to 16⨉CO₂. I found that ERF increases with CO₂ concentration due to the increase in Instantaneous Radiative Forcing (IRF). Specifically, the IRF increases at higher CO₂ values primarily due to stronger stratospheric cooling induced by CO₂ forcing. On the other hand, the radiative adjustments counteract the IRF increase, causing the ERF to rise at a slower pace compared to the corresponding increase in IRF induced by higher CO₂ concentrations. Lastly, I studied the winter storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, focusing on experiments up to 8⨉CO₂. Through this analysis, I identified a non-linear response in the low latitude storm tracks. It is projected that the storm tracks will experience an intensification by the end of the century. However, my findings reveal that this intensification does not scale linearly with CO₂ forcing. In fact, the storm tracks shift poleward, including a reduction of the storm tracks at low-mid latitudes and intensification at mid-high latitudes.

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Changes in light harvesting ability and other physiological responses could int1uence the competitive outcomes of tree species in a future elevated CO₂ atmosphere. Photosynthetic light response curves were constructed with a closed photosynthesis system (LI-COR, Inc. Lincoln, NB) in order to investigate the effect of growth in elevated CO₂ (746 μl⁻¹) and ambient CO₂ (379 μl⁻¹) on light responses, and seedlings were allowed to dry out to examine physiological changes to water stress. While drying out, photosynthesis was measured with a closed system (LI-COR, Inc. Lincoln, NB) and fluorescence was measured with a portable fluorescence measurement system (P.K. Morgan Instruments, Inc Andover, MA). No species showed significant increases In quantum yields or decreases in light-compensation points as a result of elevated CO₂. Photosynthesis declined in all species due to water but seedlings grown in elevated C0₂ maintained photosynthesis longer. Loblolly pine and red maple grown in e1evated CO₂ showed signs of photosynthetic acclimation. Photochemical efficiency of PSII declined with water stress in loblolly pine. Red maple and sweetgum showed no relationship between photochemical efficiency of PSII and simulated drought. Growth in elevated C0₂ did not influence this response in loblolly pine, but sweetgum started with a lower photochemical efficiency or PSII which increased significantly. / Master of Science

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The landscape of the boreal forest in north-central Canada is characterised by mosaics of broad-leaved deciduous trees (aspen, Populus; birch, Betula), evergreen conifers (black spruce, Picea mariana; jack pine, Pinus banksiana; and larch, Larix), fens and lakes. The forest has been cited as the possible location of a global carbon sink, and its likely response in the event of global climate change remains unclear. To improve our current understanding of the links between the boreal forest ecosystem and the lower atmosphere, the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) was executed in a series of field experiments in 1994 and 1996. This thesis documents the efforts made to characterise and map temporal and spatial distributions of the fluxes of heat, water vapour and CO2 over two 16 km x 16 km heterogeneous sites at the BOREAS study sites. / Most of the data in this thesis were obtained from the airborne observations by the Canadian Twin Otter Aircraft, operated by the Institute for Aerospace Research of the Canadian National Research Council, at the BOREAS Northern Study Area (NSA), and Southern Study Area (SSA). The research aircraft was flown at a fixed altitude of about 30 m agl. The data acquired in 1994 were primarily used to develop an objective deterending scheme in eddy-correlation flux estimates, that took into consideration the physical nature of turbulent transport during convective daytime conditions, and to map the spatial distribution of sensible heat, latent heat and CO2 fluxes over three intensive field campaigns. Maps of spatial patterns of the surface characteristics, such as the surface temperature excess over air temperature (Ts-T a) and Greenness index (GI), were also constructed. The mapping procedure involved generation of an array of grid points by block averaging the parameter of interests along the flight lines, spaced 2 km apart, over 2 km windows, with 1 km overlap between adjacent windows. The (Ts-Ta) maps showed, not surprisingly, that surface temperatures were relatively cooler over the mature forests than over the disturbed, regenerating and burn areas. However, they also showed a decoupling between sensible heat flux and T s-Ta not seen in less complex terrain. By contrast, close correspondence was observed between maps of CO2 flux and greenness, suggesting that the potential to infer CO2 exchange from remote sensing observations of the surface is higher than that for energy exchange. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Plants emit a diverse range of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) into the atmosphere, of which isoprene is the most abundantly emitted. Isoprene significantly affects biological and atmospheric processes, but the range of isoprene and BVOCs present in bamboos has not been well characterized. In this thesis I explore the range of isoprene emission found in bamboos and relate it to plant morphological and physiological characteristics. In addition, I measure and relate the entire suite of BVOCs present in the bamboos to their fundamental isoprene emission rate. Interspecific variation in isoprene emission documented in a comprehensive survey of bamboos. Two groups of bamboo species were measured in the greenhouse and the field. Elevated photosynthetic rate was significantly correlated with isoprene emission. In the field, dark respiration rate was highest in bamboos that made the least amount of isoprene. The total BVOC suite was significantly influenced by whether or not leaf-level isoprene emission was present. I conclude that bamboos vary with regard to physiology, morphology, and total BVOC suite and that isoprene emission is correlated with these changes, and introduce the bamboos as a novel system for studying the impacts of isoprene emission.

The negative consequences of sprawling metropolitan regions have attracted attention in both academia and in practice regarding how to better design settlements and alter travel behavior in a quest to curtail vehicle emissions. Studies that have attempted to understand the nexus between land use, travel and vehicle emissions have not been able to address the issue of self-selection in a satisfactory manner. Self-selection occurs when households choose their residential location based, in part, on expected travel behavior. This non-random experience makes the use of traditional regression frameworks that strongly rely on random sampling, unsuitable. This replication study's purpose was to examine the impact of land use and travel on CO2 emissions using the Heckman (1979) sample selection model in Portland Metropolitan Area. three research questions guided this study: (1) Does self-selection to drive a motor vehicle lead to reduction in CO2 emissions? (2) Does land use and automobile travel influence the decision to drive after controlling for self-selection? (3) What land use and travel factors determine CO2 emissions after controlling for self-selection? The findings suggest driving has a statistically significant negative effect on estimated CO2 and that most land use variables significantly affect driving behavior.

Radiative feedbacks associated with changes in water vapor, temperature, surface albedo and clouds remain a major source of uncertainty in our understanding of climate's response to anthropogenic forcing. In this dissertation climate model data is used to investigate variations in feedbacks that result from changing CO��� forcing and the time scales on which feedbacks operate, focusing on the applicability of one method in particular, the radiative kernel technique, to these problems. This computationally efficient technique uses a uniform, incremental change in feedback variables to infer top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative flux changes. The first chapters explore the suitability of the linear radiative kernel technique for large forcing scenarios. We show that kernels based on the present-day climate misestimate TOA flux changes for large perturbations, translating into biased feedback estimates. We address this issue by calculating additional kernels based on a large forcing climate state with eight times present day CO��� concentrations. Differences between these and the present-day kernels result from added absorption of radiation by CO��� and water vapor, and increased longwave emission due to higher temperatures. Combining present-day and 8xCO��� kernels leads to significant improvement in the approximation of TOA flux changes and accuracy of feedback estimates. While climate sensitivity remains constant with increasing CO��� forcing when the inaccurate present-day kernels are used, sensitivity increases significantly when new kernels are used. Comparison of feedbacks in climate models with observations is one way towards understanding the disagreement among models. However, climate change feedbacks operate on time scales that are too long to be evaluated from the observational record. Rather, short-term proxies for greenhouse-gas-driven warming are often used to compute feedbacks from observations. The third chapter of this dissertation examines links between the seasonal cycle and global warming using pattern correlations of spatial distribution of feedback variables and radiative flux changes. We find strong correlations between time scales for changes in surface temperature and climate variables, but not for TOA flux anomalies, reaffirming conclusions drawn in previous work. Finally, we investigate the fitness of the radiative kernel technique for evaluation of short-term feedbacks in a comparison with the more accurate, but more computationally expensive, partial radiative perturbations. / Graduation date: 2013

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from the soil surface, and concentrations within the soil profile, were measured between June 1998 and Sept. 1999 at four adjacent forest plantations and an old field in Nepean, Ontario. The objectives of this study were to quantify seasonal CO2 and CH4 fluxes from the soil surface and within the soil profile to determine the effect of soil moisture and temperature, and forest age and species on the exchange, and establish a chronosequence of organic carbon accumulation in the forest plantations and the old field soils. / Dynamic and static chamber techniques were used to measure surface fluxes of CO2 and CH4, respectively, and soil gas concentrations were sampled with probes. In the old field and forest plantations, surface soil CO2 flux ranged from 2.9 to 27 g CO2 m-2 d-1 and 2.0 to 39 g CO2 m -2 d-1 respectively. Significant differences due to age and species of plantation were observed. Seasonal variations in CO2 efflux from the soil surface and within the soil profile were related to variation in soil temperature and moisture. Uptake of CH4 was observed at all sites and there was no significant differences in flux due to vegetation type or age. Maximum rate of CH4 consumption was 6.3 mg CH4 m-2 d-1. Methane uptake was positively related to soil moisture conditions. / The carbon content of the soil increased in all sites following the establishment of vegetation on sandy parent material. Carbon content was greatest in the upper soil profile. Rates of carbon accumulation ranged from 109 to 426 g m-2 y-1. Soil carbon increased with increasing age of plantation during the first 30 years following the establishment of vegetation on parent material, but declined as the forest plantation matured.