本研究的目的為研究國中九年級學生在學習機率單元前後，對於機率概念的了解與代表性偏誤、可利用性偏誤Kahneman＆Tversky(1974)）及結果取向判斷偏誤(Konold1989)的異同。主要採量的分析，以自訂的問卷評量工具對受試者進行筆試。研究之樣本為學過國小簡單機率的國中九年級學生，問卷實施的方式為筆試，研究過程設計了前測、後測兩份試卷，並在施測前進行預試來評估試題信度、效度。前測問卷施測目的在探討學生在教學前利用常識、直觀來解題所可能造成的機率偏誤。教學過後也進行後測問卷的施測，並利用前後兩次施測的結果，探討國中生在教學前後機率判斷偏誤上的差異性。本研究之對象為中學九年級學生，共148位學生來進行施測，研究者依學生數學分組教學之成績，分為高分群、中間群、低分群，依據性別和分群兩個變項來進行分析。分析結果發現： 1.性別變項無顯著差異，故教學過程中不用特別考慮性別差異。 2.分群分析結果如下： (1)結果取向 在一次投擲問題中，前、後測問卷分析結果發現，中、高分群前後測整體表現皆無偏誤的比例較低分群來的少。 (2)代表性偏誤 在代表性偏誤中的正時近效應與負時近效應的問題中，低分群在前、後測仍犯有偏誤比中、高分群前後測都犯有偏誤的比例來的高。而改變樣本空間問題中，中、高分群在前、後測皆沒有偏誤的比比例較低分群高。複合樣本問題中探討代表性偏誤，低分群在前、後測仍然有偏誤的比例較中、高分群前、後測犯有偏誤高。 (3)可利用性偏誤 三群在前、後測的綜合表現並無顯著差異。 / The study aims to explore the differences of judgmental heuristic and biases on representativeness, availability (Kahneman &Tversky, 1974) and outcome approach (Konold, 1989) in terms of comprehension of probability concepts by ninth graders before and after studying the subject. The results are based on a quantitative analysis of the data collected from two sets of paper-and-pencil self-designed questionnaires. Pre-test questionnaire is meant to explore students’ potential probability biases when they work out the problems based on their previous knowledge and intuition prior to any instruction, while post-test questionnaire is conducted after instruction. The subjects in our experiment are composed of one hundred and forty-eight ninth graders who have only learned some basic probability concepts in primary school, and are classified into high-, mid- and low-scorer groups based on their previous academic performance. The findings suggest that: 1. Gender effect is not significantly different, so there is no need to pay attention to the gender difference in teaching process. 2. The results of analyses for different groups are listed in what follows. (1) Outcome approach: In the problem of tossing a coin, the results of pre-test and post-test indicate that the proportion of subjects who are without biases is higher in mid- and high-scorers than that of low-scorers. (2) Representativeness bias: In the problem of positive recency effect and negative recency effect, the proportion of committing biases is higher in low-scorers than that of mid- and high-scorers in both pre- and post-tests. In the problem of changes in sample spaces, the proportion of lack of biases is higher in mid- and high-scorers than that of low-scorers. In the composite-event problem that deals with representative biases, the proportion of committing biases among low-scorers is higher than that of mid- and high-scorers in both pre- and post-tests. (3) Availability bias: There is no significant difference in the overall performance of pre- and post-tests among the three groups.

2005年4月號The Econonist 經濟學人週刊的封面刊登: 'Power at last - How the internet means the consumer really is king (and queen). ' 沒錯！消費者是國王的時代來臨了！消費者在網際網路上可以隨時隨地取得更多、更有價值的消費訊息，以極低的成本，應用網路中各種透明的消費資訊，任意的改變消費的抉擇，史無前例的表達出有別於過去被動接受產品的主動消費力量，消費利益也確實受到保護，因此以資訊為基礎的行銷策略就是消費者導向策略(Glazer,1997)，呼應了經濟學人週刊的聳動標題；本研究即証明了在獲得充分且有價值的消費資訊，對消費者在進行消費決策與行為時，是具有「主動的」改變力量，因此提供消費者更豐富的消費資訊，也必定能保護更多的消費者利益。 當新的資訊處理技術與傳播媒體出現，或是由某種新工藝的創造與發展，進而改變現存的政治、經濟與文化、風俗產生新的變遷將對消費行為，產生戲劇化影響(Innis, 1951; McLuhan, 1964)，原因在於消費者在面對嶄新而且陌生的消費環境，所採取維護自身消費利益的因應之道；本研究引用學者 Kahneman and . Tversky 提出的「預期理論」（Prospect Theory)，以及Barry Schwatz（2004）提出的「經驗效用」（Experienced Utility）、「期望效用」（）、「記憶效用」（Remembered Utility），因為以人類基於維護自身利益為出發點，方能準確反映出消費者的行為，洞察消費變化的先機；特別是在網際網路平台上對此議題的研究，本研究尚屬先例。 企業經營的成敗可由她與客戶關係的良莠顯現，衡量客戶關係最重要的指標就是：企業是否能由與消費者在消費流程互動中（關係），掌握所留下的足跡（資訊），加以解讀應用並促進消費者再消費，如此資訊的應用就是 Rashi Glazer所稱的企業「關鍵資產」，反映出不斷促進產品、服務交易的要素( Glazer,1997)：如果廠商忽視此變化，影響所及，失去的將不只是企業經營的「關鍵資產」，甚至還會被消費者「主動」的遺棄；因此，在企業經營的研究中，能將劇變如此的消費行為與決策，研究出可遵循與掌握的模式，相信對廠商競爭力的提升有莫大助益。 本研究的貢獻呈現在CORM-PET模式，也就是展現消費者是如何表達他「主動」消費力量的軌跡；試想，當企業發現消費者表示喜歡你的產品卻無消費行動，在過去對企業的影響並不明顯，因為同行也不知道何以如此（無資訊）！但是面對資訊處理能力百倍於過去的今天，能經由對資訊精準處理與應用，知道其中原因的廠商將嶄露頭角；CORM-PET模式就是我們提出能解釋消費行為何以如此的模式，以及能精確應用當前處理資訊的能力，解讀消費行為留下的資料轉為有力的應用資訊，幫助供需雙方在新興「資訊經濟時代」的市場交易中各取所需。 關鍵詞 消費者導向、預期理論、期望效用、記憶效用、經驗效用、稟賦效用、定錨效用、框架效用、消費風險、消費價值、頂端效用、可得性捷思法 / The front cover title of The Econonist magazine (April of 2005) read ' Power at last-How the internet means the consumer really is king (and queen). ' Consumers can obtain more valuable consumption information whenever and wherever in the internet, this shows unprecedentedly consumers’ active consumption strength which is different from their passively accepted the products in the past. Consumers can use the transparent price information in the network with the extremely low cost, and are free to choose any consumption. Consumption interests are also really protected, so the marketing tactics based on information are that consumers lead tactics (Glazer, 1997), which echoed the title of the The Econonist magazine. This research has proved that valuable and sufficient consumption information for consumer while making consumption decision provide active power of change. Therefore, offering more abundant consumption information to consumers can certainly protect more consumers’ interests. Enterprises’ relation with customers can reflect the success or failure of their management. The most important criteria of the relationship are whether both enterprises and consumers can keep enough track in the consumption procedure to facilitate the same consumer to consume again. This is what Glazer (1997) said ' key assets ' of enterprises, which reflect key elements to promote products, service trade constantly. If the owner ignores the fact that information changes consumption decision and behavior, he or she will lose not only ' key assets ' of enterprises, but also can be abandoned by consumers. So if academic research of enterprise management can figure out the model of drastic change of the consumer behavior and decision, which can be followed and grasped, manufacturer's competitiveness will be greatest improved. The change of consumption decision and behavior is because the consumer guided by information in the face of brand-new and strange consumption environment (network market) to adopt and safeguard self-consumption interests. Historian and mass communication scholar (Innis, 1951; McLuhan, 1964) point out such a change, as new materials treatment technology and media appear or new craft created and developed can change extant politics, economy, culture and custom. Other scholars maintain one after another that must extend the value concept of the customer in the past to apply to the business activity in the internet network (Keeney, 1999; Keeney, 1992; Rayport, Sviokla, 1994). All the scholars’ academic researches of mankind’s protect one's own interests over the years, the most excellent theories are 'Prospect Theory' by Kahneman ＆ Tversky. Schwatz’ (2004) 'Experienced Utility ', ' Expected Utility' , ' Remembered Utility '. We adopt the academic research of above-mentioned scholars, as the foundation of developing this research, because the academic research is based on mankind’s safeguarding one's own interests, which is different from others are on roles development. This research based on this kind of research to develop more concrete consumption behavior, especially the consumer behavior on the internet network platform, still belongs to the precedent. The contribution of the study appears in CORM-PET model, which represents how consumers express their initiatively consumption power. Just try to think that when the enterprises find that consumers like your products but not having the consuming action. There was not obvious in the past influence enterprises’ for the counterparts had no idea about the reasons. But information handling ability hundred times to the past today, the manufacturers who can process and apply with information accurately, and know the whys and wherefores will show up prominently. The CORM-PET model we proposed helps to explain how the consumer behavior like this pattern, dealing with information accurately, to understand the materials staying behind in consumer behavior transferring to powerful application information, to help both. Key words: Consumer orientation, Prospect theory, Expected utility, Remembered utility, Experienced utility, Endowment effect, Anchor effect, Framing effect, Consumer risk, Consumer value, Peak effect, Availability heuristics