A teoria de opções propicia um vasto campo de aplicações. No Brasil, a aplicação desta teoria à estabilidade financeira vem se tornando cada vez mais favorável: 1) pela relativa estabilidade da economia, 2) pela determinação do Banco Central do Brasil no sentido de controlar o risco das instituições financeiras e 3) pelo natural desenvolvimento do mercado financeiro brasileiro. Esta tese está dividida em três ensaios e os dois primeiros focaram numa abordagem de poder de previsão. No primeiro, compararam-se volatilidades estimadas por diferentes modelos vis-à-vis a volatilidade realizada e encontrou-se alguma evidência empírica de que as implícitas do modelo de Vasicek-Estendido são informacionalmente superiores às dos outros modelos. No segundo, mostrou-se que é possível utilizar medidas da classe “distância ao default" para atribuir classificação de risco a bancos dentro do setor bancário brasileiro. No terceiro ensaio, analisou-se a nova Lei de Falência usando a teoria de opções e a teoria dos contratos. Conclui-se dos três ensaios que a teoria de opções é uma boa ferramenta para avaliar questões de estabilidade financeira. / The option pricing theory provides a myriad of applications. In Brazil, the application of this theory to financial stability is becoming more and more favourable: 1) for the increasing stability of the economy, 2) for the commitment of the Central Bank of Brazil in controlling the risk of the financial institutions and 3) for the development of the Brazilian financial market. This thesis is divided in three essays and the first two focused on a predictive-power approach. In the first one, volatilities estimated by different models were compared vis-à-vis the realized volatility and we obtained some empirical evidence that the Extended-Vasicek’s implied volatility is informationally superior to the other models’. In the second one, it was argued that it is possible to use measures of the class “distance to default" in order to rank the banks of the Brazilian banking sector in terms of risk. In the third essay, the new Brazilian Bankruptcy Law is analysed by using the option pricing theory and the theory of contracts. The three essays conclude that the option pricing theory is a good tool to evaluate financial stability issues.

A condução de processos de falência ou de recuperação geram custos, principalmente, aos seus participantes diretos: credores e devedora. Esses custos são chamados custos de falência e são classificados em diretos e indiretos. Os custos diretos são representados pelas despesas administrativas do processo jurídico, tais como honorários do administrador judicial, custas e despesas judiciais. Os indiretos são os custos de oportunidade incorridos para os participantes devido à participação em processos de falência ou de recuperação, tais como a dificuldade em obter crédito, ou o tempo despendido no processo. Admitindo-se a presença desses custos, este trabalho objetivou identificar, mensurar e classificar os custos de falência para os participantes diretos desses processos (devedor e credores) conduzidos sob a legislação falimentar brasileira a fim de compará-los aos custos encontrados em trabalhos internacionais que trataram sobre o tema. Por meio da consulta de processos de falência e de recuperação judicial nas comarcas de São Paulo-SP, Belo Horizonte-MG e Contagem-MG, foi possível coletar os dados necessários para o desenvolvimento desta pesquisa. Como resultados principais foram encontrados que os desembolsos ocorridos nos processos de falência foram de em média 35% do ativo final da falida, os ativos das falidas perderam, em média 47% do valor, a taxa de recuperação total dos credores foi de, em média, 12% e os processos duraram 9 anos, em média. Em relação aos processos de recuperação, os custos diretos foram de, em média, 26% do ativo inicial da recuperanda, a taxa de recuperação dos credores foi, em média, de 25% e a duração de processos foi de 4 anos, em média. A análise dos resultados conduziu à indicação de que o processo falimentar brasileira é moroso e oneroso, considerando-se os resultados encontrados nos estudos internacionais utilizados como parâmetro, e que a dificuldade em se maximizar o valor do ativo da falida e ressarcir credores em ambos os procedimentos é um desafio não somente para o Brasil. / The procedure of bankruptcy generates direct and indirect costs of bankruptcy to its participants. Direct costs are represented by the expenses incurred during the legal procedure, such as trustee\'s fees, legal costs and expenses. The indirect costs are the opportunity costs incurred for the participants due to participation in liquidation or reorganization. Assuming the presence of these costs, this study aimed to identify, measure and classify bankruptcy costs of Brazilian bankruptcy law to direct participants of proceedings (debtor and creditors) and to compare them to the costs found in international studies that treated on the subject. Through documentary research, it was possible to collect the necessary data for the development of research that had as its main results that the direct costs of liquidation represented in this sample, on average 11.63% of the initial asset of the bankrupt, and in the reorganization, these costs were average 25.46 % of the initial asset of the firm. The asset bankrupt companies lost an average of 46.84 % of the value. Regarding the creditor recovery rates in the liquidation it was, on average, 12.40 % and 25.36 % in the reorganization. The results led to the indication that the Brazilian bankruptcy law is slower than results of international studies and the difficulty in maximizing the value of the bankrupt\'s assets and repay creditors in both procedures is a challenge not only to Brazil.

The purpose of this study was to examine the socio-demographic and financial characteristics that were associated with the likelihood of a discharge among Chapter 12 bankruptcy filers in Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming. Previous bankruptcy studies conducted in Utah have looked at the same associations in Chapter 7 and Chapter 13. This study contains individual filer-level data from 158 Chapter 12 bankruptcy cases filed in Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming between 1997 and 2005. These cases were accessed through the Web-PACER system, a database of imaged court documents filed in district bankruptcy courts. Free access to this system was given by the Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming bankruptcy trustees to the researcher. The principal finding in this study is that filers with longer repayment plans and those that live in the states of Idaho and Wyoming are more likely to attain a discharge. The local legal culture of Idaho and Wyoming may promote plans that are more feasible and the debtors are more likely to reach a discharge. However, debtors in Utah are more likely to reach a discharge in a shorter time than those living in Idaho or Wyoming. Studies have found that debtors who started making payments were more likely to assure that their plans were successful. Discharge is the most common outcome for cases open for a number of years. Debtors who have reached a Chapter 12 confirmation are more likely to continue on a payment schedule and receive a discharge.

Entrepreneurial failure, in this thesis defined as bankruptcy, is an area within the entrepreneurship research where little or no emphasis has been placed. By combining entrepreneurial failure and learning, it is possible to provide a more balanced view as well as point to the fact that a bankruptcy does not necessarily have to be of negative nature as valuable learning outcomes might be gained. The purpose of this thesis was thus to explore the learning outcomes and its implications from an individual entrepreneur’s failure. A qualitative approach, in the form of a case study, was taken. Seven semi-structured face-to-face interviews were performed to gather primary data which was analyzed. Three research questions helped to fulfill the task, by covering the pragmatic and psychosocial responses, the personal and professional learning outcomes and also the ways that these learning outcomes are used and applied. The respondents reacted to the bankruptcy by blaming external factors, such as the environment, the strategy/structure or the available resources. Through deeper analysis, we found that the entrepreneurs themselves had a clear impact on the bankruptcy. The fact that most of the entrepreneurs rather blamed factors out of their control, than realizing their own involvement, can constitute a barrier for constructive reflection on the failure, which ultimately forms the basis for learning. Most of the learning outcomes, seen from a personal and professional perspective, were classified as corrective. That is; they involved improvement of professional skills and not the personal life. Further, the respondents also showed insight in terms of reforming and intrinsic learning. While the corrective learning outcomes were firm specific, the intrinsic ones were more focused on personal insight. Further, the reforming learning outcomes pointed to issues that had a big impact on both the personal and professional lives of the entrepreneurs. The unproportionally low number of cursory learning outcomes indicate that opportunities of learning from a bankruptcy exist and are large both in terms of personal and professional aspects. Lastly, the majority of the entrepreneurs make use of their learning since they have passed the double loop in Argyris and Schön’s (1996) Single and Double loop learning model. This indicates that an entrepreneurial failure is an important experience and the learning out-comes that can be drawn from it is applied in the entrepreneurs’ daily life in the form of new firms and projects, consultancy firms or even in new ways of living. The conclusions drawn in this section point to the importance of realizing that a failure is not always negative. By this, we suggest that through conscious and honest reflection, a failed entrepreneur can gain insights that could not possibly be gained without going trough a setback.

Entrepreneurs are often perceived to be creative and risk taking (Kreuger, 2002). The purpose of this paper is to investigate entrepreneurs’ response to a failure namely a bankruptcy. People react differently to a bankruptcy and tend to blame different things as the cause. Some blame themselves while others blame things out of their control. These differences can have an impact on the learning process and how easy the entrepreneur moves on after the failure. These findings can be used for situations when dealing with failures and entrepreneurial activities. There is no single theory already existing for this topic, therefore several theories have been looked at and used for the analysis. The theories can be divided into five main areas: entrepreneurship, failure, entrepreneurial response to failure, factors affecting responses to failure and learning. Entrepreneurship is treated as the creation of new economic activity (Davidsson, 2004) and entrepreneurial traits (Kreuger, 2002) are considered in the analysis. Locus of control is an important trait since it shows the ability of the entrepreneur to think that they are in control of the environment. (Rotter, 1966) In order to explain the cause of a bankruptcy people tend to use certain attributions. Locus of causality refers to whether a person blames internal or external causes and stability whether these causes are changeable in the future or not. (Martinko, 1995) Several factors will influence the response to a bank-ruptcy and in this thesis motivation for the start-up, culture and separation of the company are looked upon. After a failure an entrepreneur can learn false lessons (McGrath & Cardon, 1997) and stop any entrepreneurial activities. However failure can also be positive if something true has been learnt. (Wiklund, 2006) This report is an exploratory type of study and a case study was conducted where five cases were used with entrepreneurs that have run companies that have gone bankrupt. A qualitative method was used and the empirical findings were gathered trough interviews which were then analysed with the support from the theoretical framework. In the analysis new models were created that showed patterns we found comparing the in-terviews. It also includes discussion about how culture affects the blaming factors of fail-ure. The factors that an entrepreneur is blaming the failure on are much depending on to what degree they possess entrepreneurial traits. This paper also suggest that how personally an entrepreneur takes his/her failure depends mostly on how financially dependent they were on their company and also how experienced they were from failure. Another finding was also that all the participants agreed that it is not a supportive business culture in the Jönköping region. Another conclusion is that entrepreneurs that blame their failure on in-ternal factors learn more from it, but this learning can be less significant due to earlier ex-perience from failure.

This thesis explores if fraud or mismanagement in municipal governments can be diagnosed or detected in advance of their bankruptcies by financial statement analysis using Benford’s Law. Benford’s Law essentially states that the distribution of first digits from real world observations would not be uniform, but instead follow a trend where numbers with lower first digits (1, 2…) occur more frequently than those with higher first digits (…8,9). If a data set does not follow Benford’s distribution, it is likely that the data has been manipulated. This widespread phenomenon has been used as a tool to detect anomalies in data sets. The annual financial statements of Jefferson County, Vallejo City, and Orange County were analyzed. All the data sets showed overall nonconformity to Benford’s Law and therefore indicated that there was the possibility of fraud occurring. I find that Benford’s Law, had it been applied in real time to those financial statements, would have been able to detect that something was amiss. That would have been very useful because each of those jurisdictions subsequently went bankrupt. This paper demonstrates that Benford’s Law may in some cases be useful as an early indicator to detect the possibility of fraud in municipal governments’ financial data.

Since 2008, the world has been in recession. As daily news outlets report, this crisis has prompted many small businesses and large corporations to file for bankruptcy, which has grave global social implications. Despite government intervention and incentives to stimulate the economy that have put nations in hundreds of billions of dollars of debt, and have reduced the prime rates to almost zero, efforts to combat the increase in unemployment rate as well as the decrease in discretionary income have been troublesome. It is a vicious cycle: consumers are apprehensive of spending due to the instability of their jobs and ensuing personal financial problems; businesses are weary from the lack of revenue and are forced to tighten their operations which likely translates to layoffs; and so on. Cautious movement of cash flows are rooted in and influenced by the psychology of the players (stakeholders) of the game (society). Understandably, the complexity of this economic fallout is the subject of much attention. And while the markets have recovered much of the lost ground as of late, there is still great opportunity to learn about all the possible factors of this recession, in anticipation of and bracing for one more downturn before we emerge from this crisis. In fact, there is no time like today more appropriate for research in bankruptcy prediction because of its relevance, and in an age where documentation is highly encouraged and often mandated by law, the amount and accessibility of data is paramount – an academic’s paradise! The main objective of this thesis was to develop a model supported by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to predict the likelihood of failure of US companies in the retail-apparel industry based on information available from annual reports – specifically from financial statements and their corresponding Notes, Management’s Discussion and Analysis, and Auditor’s Report. It was hypothesized that the inclusion of variables which reflect managerial decision-making and economic factors would enhance the predictive power of current mathematical models that consider financial data exclusively. With a unique and comprehensive dataset of 85 companies, new metrics based on different aspects of the annual reports were created then combined with a slacks-based measure of efficiency DEA model and modified layering classification technique to capture the multidimensional complexity of bankruptcy. This approach proved to be an effective prediction tool, separating companies with a high risk of bankruptcy from those that were healthy, with a reliable accuracy of 80% – an improvement over the widely-used Altman bankruptcy model having 70%, 58% and 50% accuracy when predicting cases today, from one year back and from two years back, respectively. It also provides a probability of bankruptcy based on a second order polynomial function in addition to targets for improvement, and was designed to be easily adapted for analysis of other industries. Finally, the contributions of this thesis benefit creditors with better risk assessment, owners with time to improve current operations as to avoid failure altogether, as well as investors with information on which healthy companies to invest in and which unhealthy companies to short.

<p>Entrepreneurs are often perceived to be creative and risk taking (Kreuger, 2002). The purpose of this paper is to investigate entrepreneurs’ response to a failure namely a bankruptcy. People react differently to a bankruptcy and tend to blame different things as the cause. Some blame themselves while others blame things out of their control. These differences can have an impact on the learning process and how easy the entrepreneur moves on after the failure. These findings can be used for situations when dealing with failures and entrepreneurial activities.</p><p>There is no single theory already existing for this topic, therefore several theories have been looked at and used for the analysis. The theories can be divided into five main areas: entrepreneurship, failure, entrepreneurial response to failure, factors affecting responses to failure and learning. Entrepreneurship is treated as the creation of new economic activity (Davidsson, 2004) and entrepreneurial traits (Kreuger, 2002) are considered in the analysis. Locus of control is an important trait since it shows the ability of the entrepreneur to think that they are in control of the environment. (Rotter, 1966) In order to explain the cause of a bankruptcy people tend to use certain attributions. Locus of causality refers to whether a person blames internal or external causes and stability whether these causes are changeable in the future or not. (Martinko, 1995) Several factors will influence the response to a bank-ruptcy and in this thesis motivation for the start-up, culture and separation of the company are looked upon. After a failure an entrepreneur can learn false lessons (McGrath & Cardon, 1997) and stop any entrepreneurial activities. However failure can also be positive if something true has been learnt. (Wiklund, 2006)</p><p>This report is an exploratory type of study and a case study was conducted where five cases were used with entrepreneurs that have run companies that have gone bankrupt. A qualitative method was used and the empirical findings were gathered trough interviews which were then analysed with the support from the theoretical framework.</p><p>In the analysis new models were created that showed patterns we found comparing the in-terviews. It also includes discussion about how culture affects the blaming factors of fail-ure. The factors that an entrepreneur is blaming the failure on are much depending on to what degree they possess entrepreneurial traits. This paper also suggest that how personally an entrepreneur takes his/her failure depends mostly on how financially dependent they were on their company and also how experienced they were from failure. Another finding was also that all the participants agreed that it is not a supportive business culture in the Jönköping region. Another conclusion is that entrepreneurs that blame their failure on in-ternal factors learn more from it, but this learning can be less significant due to earlier ex-perience from failure.</p>

Thesis (doctoral)--Universität Heidelberg, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (p. xvii-xxiii) and index.

On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy causing the meltdown of the fourth-largest American investment bank that shocked the financial industry and caused major damage to the world’s economy. This paper examines the situation leading to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and identifies the key publics in the financial crisis. In addition, this paper examines the communications and relationships Lehman Brothers had with its key publics during the crisis from the perspective of the Excellence theory. The facts and evidence of the case of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy that are presented in this paper are sourced from news releases, congressional hearing reports, examiner’s reports on Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy filing, Lehman Brothers’ earning reports, conference calls, and press releases. Finally, this paper will provide recommendations on dealing with crises based on Excellence theory and the opinions of public relations practitioners. / text