This dissertation consists of three chapters on the implications of the personal default option on the economy. In the first two chapters, I analyze how credit constraints faced by entrepreneurs are shaped by the legal environment for default that they face. In the third chapter, I explore the welfare implications of allowing financial intermediaries to charge different interest rates according to perceived probabilities of consumer bankruptcy. In the first chapter, I build a model where agents can pick a career and decide whether to default on their mortgage. The purpose of this model is to analyze the interaction between these decisions and the existence of different legal environments, regarding the degree of recourse that lenders have over the borrowers’ assets. The model yields three basic predictions. First, as lenders have more recourse, the cost of default for the borrower increases and default becomes less frequent. Second, as lenders have more recourse, the entrepreneurship threshold (i.e. the amount of home equity a homeowner requires to become an entrepreneur) also increases. Third, where lenders have relatively less recourse, the size of the entrepreneurship threshold reduction due to a house price increase is larger. In the second chapter I test the validity of the third prediction of the model, which encompasses the other two. Using U.S. data, I find that the margins of creation for small young firms responded strongly to the increase in house prices between 2000 and 2007. This effect was driven by those areas where mortgage default is relatively less costly (less recourse). This link between house prices and entrepreneurial activity becomes weaker after the Great Recession. The third chapter explores the effects of allowing financial intermediaries to charge different interest rates according to the debt profile of agents. It also studies the welfare implications of different bankruptcy schemes and those associated with removing the default option. My findings indicate that allowing for price discrimination and removing the bankruptcy option are both desirable. However, the welfare gain from a more stringent bankruptcy regulation is negligible compared to those of removing the bankruptcy option and allowing discrimination.

This thesis offers a comparative study of Chinese and the U.S. legislations on the issue of cross-border insolvency. China has included one article concerning this issue in its Enterprise Bankruptcy Law promulgated in 2006. Four years after that, when facing a real case, it is found that the legislation is too preliminary to be used. In the meantime, great efforts have been made among many western countries in order to promote international cooperation on this issue. The United States is one of the most active countries. This thesis analyzes the Chinese version of cross-border insolvency legislation, factor by factor. It also does case study of mostly U.S. cases and some other countries’ cases and tries to find out how the courts interpret the corresponding factors. In doing so, it hopes to improve the Chinese legislation by taking international experience as reference.

This thesis offers a comparative study of Chinese and the U.S. legislations on the issue of cross-border insolvency. China has included one article concerning this issue in its Enterprise Bankruptcy Law promulgated in 2006. Four years after that, when facing a real case, it is found that the legislation is too preliminary to be used. In the meantime, great efforts have been made among many western countries in order to promote international cooperation on this issue. The United States is one of the most active countries. This thesis analyzes the Chinese version of cross-border insolvency legislation, factor by factor. It also does case study of mostly U.S. cases and some other countries’ cases and tries to find out how the courts interpret the corresponding factors. In doing so, it hopes to improve the Chinese legislation by taking international experience as reference.

Based on Leland (1994), the paper tries to examine the changes in probability of bankruptcy when direct and indirect costs of bankruptcy are considered. Besides, the paper tries to study the changes in probability of bankruptcy when agents have different goals, and explore the changes in bankruptcy costs and agency costs. The paper finds that, by taking into account of indirect cost of bankruptcy, the probability of bankruptcy tends to increase when agents try to maximize the value of shareholders, but tends to decrease when agents try to maximize the value of the firm. The probability of bankruptcy also varies by the changes of the parameters in different goals of agency models. Three major findings in the paper are: (1) when agents try to maximize the value of firm, the optimal probability of bankruptcy is close to zero; (2) marginal risk premium incurred by additional debts have to be considered in maximizing the value of firm; (3) the financing decision made by agents are affected by indirect costs of bankruptcy as they will increase the optimal probability of bankruptcy and marginal risk premium of debt in comparison with the case of direct costs being considered only.

Lietuvos ekonomikai vystantis rinkos sąlygomis, kiekvienas verslas patiria didesnę ar mažesnę riziką. Nei viena įmonė nėra garantuota, kad jos veikla visą laiką bus tęstina, jos paslaugos ar prekės nuolat turės paklausą, o dėl paklausos svyravimų nereikės keisti veiklos masto, atleisti darbuotojų, daryti papildomų išlaidų ir pan. Per pastarąjį laikotarpį išaiškėjo gana pavojingų dalykų liudijančių, kad įstatymų autoriai ir leidėjai nevisiškai įvertino svarbią ir sudėtingą rinkos ekonomikos bankroto funkciją. Tai nėra paprasta teisinė ir finansinė procedūra, bet svarbus ūkio valdymo ir jo efektyvumo didinimo svertas. Bankrotai tapo vos ne masišku reiškiniu, ir, svarbiausia, dauguma jų baigiasi ūkio subjektų likvidavimu. Bankroto procedūros dažniausiai atlieka ne atstatomąją, o likvidacinę funkciją, kurią lemia nepagrįstai ilgas bankroto bylos nagrinėjimo laikotarpis, bei netinkamas ir nekvalifikuotas administravimas. Šiame darbe, atlikti tyrimai bei pateiktos nuomonės /išvados remdamasis ir asmenine, bankrutuojančių įmonių administratoriaus patirtimi, todėl šis darbas ir jame pateikta analitinė, teisinė bei praktinė informacija gali būti panaudojama bankrutuojančių įmonių administratorių ir kreditorių atstovų, dalyvaujančių bankroto bylų nagrinėjime, veikloje. Vienas iš esminių ypatumų, nagrinėjant bankroto bylas, skiriančių šią bylų kategoriją nuo ginčo teisenos, yra administratoriaus kaip proceso dalyvio ypatingas teisinis statusas, bei jo funkcijos užtikrinant... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / While Lithuanian economy continues to develop under market conditions, every business is experiencing major or minor risk. In the latter period rather dangerous things have been clarified, which point out that authors and publishers of laws haven‘t completely estimated important and complicated bankruptcy function of market economy. It is not a simple legal and financial procedure, but an important management of economy and it‘s efficiency expansion lever. Bankruptcies became nearly massive phenomenon and, above all, most of them end in liquidation of economic entities. This paper includes the carried out research and presented conclusions / estimations . Therefore practical, legal and analytical information presented in this paper could be used by administrators of bankcruptcy companies and representatives of creditors, who participate in the activity of hearing bankcruptcy cases. One of the essential peculiarities in hearing bankcruptcy cases, what distinguishes the category of these cases from dispute proceedings, is particularly legal status of an administrator as a member of a process and his functions in safeguarding the interest balance of debtors and creditors. In compliance with this situation the ultimate attention in this paper is given to the administrator to reveal his functions and problems he comes across in hearing the case. Bankcruptcy cases are heard according to the Regulations defined in the Civil Process Code of the Republic of Lithuania , but... [to full text]

Baigiamajame magistro darbe nagrinėjami įmonių bankroto analizės ir prognozavimo priimant investicinius sprendimus ypatumai. Pirmoje darbo dalyje yra analizuojami investicijų ir investavimo ypatumai, išskiriant investicijų formas ir pateikiant jų klasifikaciją bei įtaką šalies įmonėms. Antroje darbo dalyje atskleidžiama bankroto esmė, analizuojamos jo atsiradimo priežastys ir požymiai, pateikiama Lietuvos įmonių bankrotų ir tyčinių bankrotų apžvalga bei analizuojama bankroto prognozavimo svarba ir prevenciniai prognozavimo metodai. Trečiojoje dalyje atliekamas praktinis šalies statybų sektoriaus įmonių vertinimas UAB „Telvalda“ ir UAB „Mažeiva“ pavyzdžiu. Šioje dalyje išskirti ir įvertinti įmonių išorės – vidaus aplinkos veiksniai, įvertinta veiklos struktūra ir turto bei nuosavo kapitalo įtaka pelnui (nuostoliui), pateikta santykinių finansinių rodiklių analizė ir įvertinta statybos sektoriaus įmonių bankroto tikimybė. Darbą sudaro 5 dalys: įvadas, teorinė dalis, UAB „Telvalda“ ir UAB „Mažeiva“ bankroto tikimybės analizė, išvados ir siūlymai, literatūros sąrašas. Darbo apimtis – 86 p. teksto be priedų, 35 pav., 19 lent., 75 bibliografiniai šaltiniai. Atskirai pridedami darbo priedai. / This final Master thesis analyses the corporate bankruptcy and forecasting in making investment decisions. The first part of the work presents the analysis of investments and investment characteristics, highlighting the investment forms and presenting their classification and their influence on the country's businesses. The second part of the work reveals the essence of bankruptcy, and analyzes its causes and symptoms, presents the overview of the Lithuanian corporate bankruptcies and fraudulent bankruptcy and analysis of the importance of bankruptcy forecasting, and preventive methods of forecasting. The third part contains the practical assessment of the national companies in the construction sector based on the cases of UAB Telvalda and UAB Mažeiva. This section identifies and assesses the company's external – internal environmental factors, evaluates the operational structure and performance, impact of assets and equity on profit (loss), presents the analysis of relative financial indicators and evaluates the bankruptcy likelihood of companies in the construction industry. The work consists of 5 parts: introduction, theoretical part, bankruptcy probability analysis of UAB Telvalda and UAB Mažeiva, conclusions and recommendations, references. Volume of the work – 86 pages of text without annexes, 35 figures, 19 tables, 75 bibliographical sources. Supplements to the work are attached separately.

The diploma thesis focuses on the problematics of the risk management, especially on the management accountability for the breach of the obligations related to corporate governance and breach of obligations in the connection with bankruptcy proceedings, in particular the obligation to file a bankruptcy.

The main purpose of this paper is to provide evidence of financial leverage, liquidity, profitability, and firm size ability to predict bankruptcy of Swedish small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and to create a bankruptcy prediction model for Swedish SMEs. The sample consists of 1086 Swedish SMEs, among which 543 did go bankrupt between 2015 and 2019. The paper employs logistic regression and Mann-Whitney U-test to test the hypotheses. The independent variables are derived from previous research and further filtered in a selection process, resulting in a final set of six variables. Financial leverage, liquidity, profitability, and firm size is found to have significantly predictive abilities to determine SME bankruptcy. The model has an overall classification accuracy of 77.6% out-of-sample and is able to classify 82.2% of the bankruptcies correctly out-of-sample.

Магистерская работа включает в себя: введение, три главы, заключение, список использованных источников и приложение. Во введение описывается актуальность выбранной темы диссертационного исследования, определены цели для исследования, указан объект и предмет исследования, приведена теоретико-методологическая основа исследования и эмпирическая база, определена практическая значимость. Теоретическая часть данной работы включает в себя теоретические данные, которое были собраны на основе российских и зарубежных методик. Практическая часть работы заключается в анализе предприятия публичного акционерного общества «Трубная металлургическая компания» дается полная оценка его финансового состояния, проводиться анализ на основании методов оценки вероятности по банкротству предприятия. И в самой последней главе описываются факты фиктивного банкротства, способы борьбы с ними и программы поддержки предпринимательства при банкротстве на государственном уровне, разбираются положительные и отрицательные стороны выбранных программ и способы по их уличению. В заключении подводятся все итоге по проведенному исследованию, выдвигаются основные выводы. / Master's work include: introduction, three chapters, conclusion, list of references and application. The introduction describes the relevance of the chosen topic of the dissertation research, defines the goals for the research, indicates the object and subject of the research, provides the theoretical and methodological basis of the research and the empirical base, and determines the practical significance. The theoretical part of this work includes theoretical data, which were collected based on Russian and foreign methods. The practical part of the work consists in the analysis of the enterprise of the public joint-stock company "Pipe Metallurgical Company", a complete assessment of its financial condition is given, an analysis is carried out because of methods for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of the enterprise. And the very last chapter describes the facts of fictitious bankruptcy, ways to deal with them and programs to support entrepreneurship in bankruptcy at the state level, examines the positive and negative aspects of the selected programs and ways to catch them. In conclusion, all the results of the study are summed up, the main conclusions are put forward.

University of Macau / Faculty of Law