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<p>In this thesis I explore dimensions through which changes in expectations can serve as a driver of business cycles in a rational expectations setting. Exploiting both the ``sunspot'' and ``news-shock'' approaches to expectations-driven business cycles, I use various theoretical models to investigate how changes in expectations may have played a role in macroeconomic events such as the technological revolution of the 1990's and the financial boom and bust of 2003-2008.</p> <p>In the first chapter, I explore the ability of a model with knowledge capital to generate business cycles driven by expectations of future movement in total factor productivity (TFP). I model knowledge capital as an input into production which is endogenously produced through a learning-by-doing process. When firms receive news of an impending productivity increase, the value of knowledge capital rises, inducing the firm to hire more hours to ``invest'' in knowledge capital. The rise in the value of knowledge capital immediately raises the value of the firm, causing an appreciation in stock prices. If the expected increase in productivity fails to materialize, the model generates a recession as well as a crash in the stock market.</p> <p>In the second chapter, I explore the extent to which expectations about innovations in the financial sector may have contributed to both the boom and bust associated with the ``Great Recession''. Making a connection between the ``boom-years'' of easy credit and the crises of 2008, I argue that agents' overly-optimistic expectations of the benefits associated with financial innovation led to a flood of liquidity in the financial sector, lowering interest rate spreads and facilitating the boom in asset prices and economic activity. When the events of 2007-2009 led to a re-evaluation of the effectiveness of these new products, agents revised their expectations regarding the actual efficiency gains available to the financial sector and this led to a withdrawal of liquidity from the financial system, a reversal in credit spreads and asset prices and a bust in real activity. Following the news-shock approach, I model the boom and bust cycle in terms of an expected future fall in the costs of bankruptcy which are eventually not realized. The build up in liquidity and economic activity in expectation of these efficiency gains is then abruptly reversed when agents' hopes are dashed. The model generates counter-cyclical movement in the spread between lending rates and the risk-free rate which is driven purely by expectations, even in the absence of any exogenous movement in bankruptcy costs as well as an endogenous rise and fall in asset prices and leverage.</p> <p>In the final chapter, I explore the extent to which a ``bout of optimism'' during a period of technological change such as the 1990's could produce not just a boom in consumption, investment and hours-worked, but also rapid growth in productivity itself. I present a theoretical model where the economy endogenously adopts the technological ideas of a slowly evolving technological frontier, and show that the presence of a ``technological gap'' between unadopted ideas and current productivity can lead to multiple equilibria and therefore the possibility that changes in beliefs can be self-fulfilling, often referred to as sunspots. In the model these sunspots take the form of beliefs about the value of adopting the new technological ideas, and unleash both a boom in aggregate quantities as well as eventual productivity growth, increasing the value of adoption and self-confirming the beliefs. In this sense, the model provides an alternative interpretation of the empirical news-based results that identify expectational booms that precede growth in TFP. Finally, I demonstrate that the scope for the indeterminacies is a function of the steady-state growth rate of the underlying frontier of technological ideas, and that during times of low growth in ideas or technological stagnation, the potential for indeterminacies and thus belief-driven productivity growth diminishes.</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Thesis advisor: Pablo Guerron-Quintana / This thesis consists of two self-contained essays on topics in applied macroeconomics. In the first chapter, I study how heterogeneous sensitivities to weather fluctuations and interregional production networks impact the measurement of weather shocks’ impact on economic activity in the United States. I start the analysis by building a general equilibrium model where the impact of weather fluctuations on productivity is state-sector dependent, and networks expose sectors to weather shocks from other regions through the use of intermediate inputs. Then, I quantify the relevance of these mechanisms, combining the model’s predictions with annual data on sectoral GDP and average temperatures by state from 1970 to 2019. My estimates show that models that do not consider these characteristics underestimate the aggregateimpact of weather fluctuations by at least a factor of 3. In particular, when the whole economy faces an unexpected increase in temperature of 1 Celsius degree, the contraction in economic activity increases from -0.13 to -0.37 percent once heterogeneity is considered and -1.14 percent when networks are included. In the second chapter, I propose a new methodology to disentangle between terms of trade movements caused by global shocks and those resulting from country-specific terms-of-trade fluctuations. This methodology extends the so-called maximum-share approach in two ways. Firstly, a global shock is identified as the shock with the highest explanatory power on the forecast error variance of a set of exogenous variables. This is in contrast to the typical approach of using only one variable as a source of information to identify a shock. Secondly, country-specific terms-of-trade shocks are identified as shocks that satisfy two conditions: (i) maximum explanation power on terms-of-trade variability and (ii) orthogonality to global shocks, allowing me to isolate the main drivers of terms of trade that are not related to global fluctuations. I apply this methodology to data on ten small open economies(SOEs) and show that global shocks contribute - on average- to 33 percent of their business cycle fluctuations. The contribution of global shocks to terms-of-trade variability is close to 20 percent, meaning that around 80 percent of terms-of-trade movements have country-specific origins. Interestingly, on average, country-specific terms-of-trade shocks are responsible for less than 10 percent of SOE business cycle variability. These results help to reconcile current estimates on the importance of terms of trade and suggest an intensive evaluation of the origins of terms-of-trade movements by policymakers before any intervention. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2024. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

This study provides evidence of the relationship between bank-granted credit and business cycles in South Africa. The study is conducted in three phases, namely qualitative research (Phase I), quantitative research (Phase II) and econometric analysis (Phase III). A sequential (connected data) mixed methodology (Phase I and II) is used to collect and analyze primary data from market participants. The qualitative research (Phase I) involves structured interviews with influential or well informed people on the subject matter. Phase I of the study is used to understand the key determinants of bank credit in South Africa and to appreciate how each of the credit aggregates behaves during alternate business cycles. Qualitative survey results suggest key determinants of commercial bank credit in South Africa as economic growth, collateral value, bank competition, money supply, deposit liabilities, capital requirements, bank lending rates and inflation. The qualitative results are used to formulate questions of the structured survey questionnaire (Quantitative research- Phase II). The ANOVA and Pearman’s product correlation analysis techniques are used to assess relationship between variables. The quantitative results show that there is direct and positive relationship between bank lending behavior and credit aggregates namely economic growth, collateral value, bank competition and money supply. On the other hand, the results show that there is a negative relationship between credit growth and bank capital and lending rates. Overall, the quantitative findings show that bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. The survey results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. The econometric methodology is used to augment results of the survey study. Phase III of the study re-examines econometric relationship between bank lending and business cycles. The study employs cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques in order to test for existence of long-run relationship between the selected variables. Granger causality test technique is applied to the variables of interest to test for direction of causation between variables. The study uses quarterly data for the period of 1980:Q1 to 2013:Q4. Business cycles are determined and measured by Gross Domestic Product at market prices while bank-granted credit is proxied by credit extension to the private sector. The econometric test results show that there is a significant long-run relationship between economic growth and bank credit extension. The Granger causality test provides evidence of unidirectional causal relationship with direction from economic growth to credit extension for South Africa. The study results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. Economic growth spurs credit market development in South Africa. Overall, the results show that there is a stable long-run relationship between macroeconomic business cycles and real credit growth in South Africa. The results show that economic growth significantly causes and stimulates bank credit. The study, therefore, recommends that South Africa needs to give policy priority to promotion and development of the real sector of the economy to propel and accelerate credit extension. Economic growth is considered as the significant policy variable to stimulate credit extension. The findings therefore hold important implications for both theory and policy. / Business Management / D.B.L.

This study provides evidence of the relationship between bank-granted credit and business cycles in South Africa. The study is conducted in three phases, namely qualitative research (Phase I), quantitative research (Phase II) and econometric analysis (Phase III). A sequential (connected data) mixed methodology (Phase I and II) is used to collect and analyze primary data from market participants. The qualitative research (Phase I) involves structured interviews with influential or well informed people on the subject matter. Phase I of the study is used to understand the key determinants of bank credit in South Africa and to appreciate how each of the credit aggregates behaves during alternate business cycles. Qualitative survey results suggest key determinants of commercial bank credit in South Africa as economic growth, collateral value, bank competition, money supply, deposit liabilities, capital requirements, bank lending rates and inflation. The qualitative results are used to formulate questions of the structured survey questionnaire (Quantitative research- Phase II). The ANOVA and Pearman’s product correlation analysis techniques are used to assess relationship between variables. The quantitative results show that there is direct and positive relationship between bank lending behavior and credit aggregates namely economic growth, collateral value, bank competition and money supply. On the other hand, the results show that there is a negative relationship between credit growth and bank capital and lending rates. Overall, the quantitative findings show that bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. The survey results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. The econometric methodology is used to augment results of the survey study. Phase III of the study re-examines econometric relationship between bank lending and business cycles. The study employs cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques in order to test for existence of long-run relationship between the selected variables. Granger causality test technique is applied to the variables of interest to test for direction of causation between variables. The study uses quarterly data for the period of 1980:Q1 to 2013:Q4. Business cycles are determined and measured by Gross Domestic Product at market prices while bank-granted credit is proxied by credit extension to the private sector. The econometric test results show that there is a significant long-run relationship between economic growth and bank credit extension. The Granger causality test provides evidence of unidirectional causal relationship with direction from economic growth to credit extension for South Africa. The study results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. Economic growth spurs credit market development in South Africa. Overall, the results show that there is a stable long-run relationship between macroeconomic business cycles and real credit growth in South Africa. The results show that economic growth significantly causes and stimulates bank credit. The study, therefore, recommends that South Africa needs to give policy priority to promotion and development of the real sector of the economy to propel and accelerate credit extension. Economic growth is considered as the significant policy variable to stimulate credit extension. The findings therefore hold important implications for both theory and policy. / Business Management / D.B.L.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this paper the effectiveness of "transplanting" a particular methodology of a probabilistic approach is assessed in a South African economic context. The methodology makes use of leading indicators which are used in regression models, with a dichotomous response variable, assuming values of 0 or 1 to indicate expansion or contraction of economic activity. The backbone of the study closely replicates the work of Nazmi (1993) and his work on turning point prediction. The recorded results indicate an ability of the model to accurately forecast businesscycle turning points in the 1980s. In the period of the 1990s, the model displays a diminished capacity to forecast the turning points with acceptable accuracy. Leading indicators, in the South African experience, show a reliable leading relationship to the composite coincident index in the current study period between 1970 and 1980 and thereafter this relationship decreases, impacting negatively upon the forecasting ability of the model. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie word die doeltreffende 'oorplanting' van 'n bepaalde metodologie van 'n waarskynlikheidsbenadering tot ekonomiese vooruitskatting in 'n Suid-Afrikaanse konteks assesseer. Die metodologie benut leidende aanwysers wat in regressiemodelle gebruik word, met 'n tweeledige responsveranderlike wat die waardes 0 of 1 aanneem om die uitbreiding of inkrimping van ekonomiese aktiwiteit aan te dui. Die kern van hierdie studie reflekteer tot 'n groot mate die werk van Nader Nazmi oor draaipunt voorspellings. Resultate toon aan dat Nazmi se model wel sakesiklusse se draaipunte akkuraat voorspel het gedurende die 1980's. Gedurende die 1990's het hierdie model se voorspeIlingsakkuraatheid egter afgeneem. In die Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede dui leidende/rigtinggewende aanwysers op 'n betroubare verhouding wat betref die saamgestelde meelopende indeks vir die tydperk 1970 tot 1980 in die onderhawige studie. Daarna is daar 'n afname in die verhouding, wat 'n negatiewe impak het op die voorspellingsvermoe van die model. In hierdie studie word die doeltreffende 'oorplanting' van 'n bepaalde metodologie van 'n waarskynlikheidsbenadering tot ekonomiese vooruitskatting in 'n Suid-Afrikaanse konteks assesseer. Die metodologie benut leidende aanwysers wat in regressiemodelle gebruik word, met 'n tweeledige responsveranderlike wat die waardes 0 of 1 aanneem om die uitbreiding of inkrimping van ekonomiese aktiwiteit aan te dui. Die kern van hierdie studie reflekteer tot 'n groot mate die werk van Nader Nazmi oor draaipunt voorspellings. Resultate toon aan dat Nazmi se model wel sakesiklusse se draaipunte akkuraat voorspel het gedurende die 1980's. Gedurende die 1990's het hierdie model se voorspeIlingsakkuraatheid egter afgeneem. In die Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede dui leidende/rigtinggewende aanwysers op 'n betroubare verhouding wat betref die saamgestelde meelopende indeks vir die tydperk 1970 tot 1980 in die onderhawige studie. Daarna is daar 'n afname in die verhouding, wat 'n negatiewe impak het op die voorspellingsvermoe van die model.

Dissertation (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Financial performance ratios are generally based on a set of financial statements without taking cognisance of other factors that could affect the measurement of performance. The behaviour of financial performance indicators during an upswing and decline phase of the economic cycle, together with the nature and scope of an enterprise's activities may have an effect on the manner in which financial performance indicators are used by an enterprise. The question may arise whether or not a ratio's behaviour for capital intensive (CI) and labour intensive (LI) enterprises could capture the essence of external factors such as an upswing or decline in the economic cycle as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GOP). In this study an upswing phase (1987-1989) of three years and a decline phase (1990-1992) of three years have been selected after an analysis of the economic cycle over the period 1970 to 1996. The distinction between the capital and labour intensity of an enterprise is based on an analysis of the total assets, fixed assets and number of employees of industrial enterprises listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The initially selected 62 financial performance indicators categorised under profitability, growth, cash flow, value-added and inflation-adjusted ratios are calculated for each enterprise of the CI (33) and LI (36) groups and for each year of the research period. The primary objectives of the research are: • To distinguish between the CI and LI nature of enterprises listed in the industrial sector of the JSE by using measures of capital and labour intensity; • To obtain patterns and identify differences in the behaviour of the selected financial indicators between CI and LI enterprises during an upswing and decline phase of the economic cycle, as measured by the GOP; • To analyse and investigate patterns and differences to determine whether or not there is specific justification(s) for the behaviour exhibited by the CI and LI enterprises for a particular ratio during either or both the upswing and decline phases of the economic cycle; • To identify key financial indicators, which could possibly be used by CI and LI enterprises to forecast financial performance and to identify lead and lag patterns in the economic cycle. An elaborate statistical analysis is conducted of the ratios to satisfy the objectives stipulated above. The first part of the analysis is based on a single representative measure, which represents an average of the three-year upswing and three-year decline phases respectively. Mean and median values are calculated for the CI and LI enterprises for both the upswing and decline phases. A profile analysis based on Hotelling's T2 test is used for the analysis of ratios that exhibit approximate normal distributions. Non-parametric tests, Mann-Whitney Utest and Wilcoxon matched-pairs test, are used for the analysis of ratios that do not indicate approximately normal distributions. The second part of the study focuses on an analysis of the ratios based on the individual years of the research period. The statistical techniques used for the analysis of the ratios based on a single representative measure are also used in the analysis of the ratios based on the individual years. The limitations identified during the analysis based on a single representative measure are addressed to a large extent in this section of the statistical analysis. By analysing the mean and median values based on the individual years, it is possible to classify the ratios as one of five pattern groups exhibited by the CI and LI enterprises, i.e. normal expected, lag, lead, cyclical and mixed. The patterns of the various ratios within each of the pattern groups are also analysed from a financial management perspective. The findings of the study confirm the stated hypothesis that there are differences in the behaviour of financial indicators based on a single representative measure and over the individual years of the research period between CI and LI enterprises during either or both an upswing and decline phase of the economic cycle. Furthermore, the analysis highlights several ratios based on a single representative measure that could not be used universally by all enterprises to measure financial performance and only during either an upswing or decline phase of the economic cycle. Ratios which are part of this category include return on total net assets (before tax), return on total net operating assets, dividend per share, sales to total net assets and interest-bearing debt to total shareholders' interest. The results based on the individual years of the analysis indicate that a large number of ratios exhibit normal expected patterns. Among the traditional profitability indicators, 80% exhibit normal expected patterns for the CI and LI enterprises during the upswing and decline phases. Traditional profitability ratios such as return on total net assets, return on net operating assets, return on total shareholders' interest and the value-creation ratio, economic value added form part of the normal expected group of patterns. All the inflation-adjusted ratios indicate normal expected patterns. These ratios indicate relative stability over the economic cycle and may be appropriate for the purposes of medium- and long-term financial forecasting as they follow the trade cycle. Approximately 39% of the ratios indicate mixed patterns, i.e. different patterns for the CI and LI enterprises. The growth in attributable earnings, cash flow to interest payments, market value of equity to book value of equity and market value added ratios indicate behaviour patterns for the CI and LI enterprises which may lead the economic cycle. These ratios may indicate the possibility of anticipating upswing and decline phases in the economic cycle. The relevance of the results for a CI enterprise alludes to the use of more debt financing during the decline phase to cover costs and working capital requirements when demand for products and services decreases as a result of a slow-down in the economy. The pattern exhibited by EPS may allude to an anticipated upswing phase in the economic cycle. An increase in the cash flow to interest payments ratio during the decline phase may indicate an imminent change in the cycle of the economy. The relevance of the results for LI enterprises indicates that an upswing in the economic cycle may be anticipated by an increase in the working capital to operating cash flow ratio. More debt financing is used during the upswing period, which may be attributed to greater demand and consequently results in a higher gearing position for LI enterprises. An increase in the cash flow to interest payments ratio during the decline phase may indicate an imminent upswing in the economic cycle. Several limitations of the study include the use of a single upswing and decline phase to represent the movements of the economic cycle; the approach used to distinguish between the CI and LI enterprises requires further analysis, and the large number of ratios could in future research be limited to several indicators. The more important recommendations of the study include the use of multiple upswing and decline phases of the economic cycle; more research into the lags and leads exhibited by the CI and LI enterprises for specific ratios should be conducted; the possibility of adopting a different approach to distinguish between CI and LI enterprises could also be considered; and further research is required to ascertain the reliability of indicators that highlight lead patterns for forecasting an upswing or decline phase in the economic cycle. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Finansiele verhoudingsgetalle word algemeen op 'n stel finansiele state gebaseer sonder dat ander faktore wat die meting van prestasie kan beinvloed, in ag geneem word. Die gedrag van finansiele verhoudingsgetalle tydens 'n opswaai en afswaai-fase van die ekonomiese siklus, tesame met die aard en omvang van 'n ondememing se aktiwiteite, mag die manier waarop 'n ondememing finansiele verhoudingsgetalle gebruik, beinvloed, Die vraag mag ontstaan of 'n verhoudingsgetal se gedrag vir kapitaalintensiewe (KI) en arbeidsintensiewe (AI) ondememings die essensie van eksteme faktore soos 'n opswaai en afswaai in die ekonomiese siklus soos gemeet deur die Bruto Binnelandse Produk (BBP), sal kan omvat. In hierdie studie is 'n opswaai-fase van driejaar (1987-1989) en 'n afswaai-fase van driejaar (1990-1992) geselekteer na 'n analise van die ekonomiese siklus vir die peri ode 1970-1996. Die onderskeid tussen die kapitaal- en arbeidsintensiteit van 'n ondememing is op 'n analise van totale bates, vaste bates en die aantal werknemers van nywerheidsondememings wat op die Johannesburg Aandelebeurs (JAB) genoteer is, gebaseer. Die 62 gekose finansiele verhoudingsgetalle wat as winsgewindheid-, groei-, kontantvloei-, toegevoegdewaarde- en inflasie-aangepaste verhoudingsgetalle gegroepeer is, is vir elkeen van die 33 KI ondememings en die 36 AI ondememings, sowel as vir elke jaar van die ondersoekperiode, bereken. Die primere doelstellings van die navorsing is: • Om tussen die KI en AI aard van ondememings wat in die industriele sektor van die JAB genoteer is, te onderskei deur maatstawe van kapitaal- en arbeidsintensiwiteit te gebruik. • Om patrone te verkry en verskille in die gedrag van die gekose verhoudingsgetalle gedurende opswaai- en afswaai-fases van die ekonomiese siklus soos gemeet deur die BBP, tussen KI en AI ondememings te identifiseer. • Om patrone en verskille te ontleed en ondersoek ten einde te bepaal of daar spesifieke regverdiging is vir die gedrag wat deur KI en AI ondememings vir 'n bepaalde verhoudingsgetal gedurende een of albei van die opswaai- en afswaai-fases van die ekonomiese siklus getoon word. • Om bepaalde finansiele verhoudingsgetalle vir KI en AI ondememings te identifiseer wat moontlik gebruik kan word om finansiele prestasie te voorspel en om lei- en sloerpatrone in die ekonomiese siklus te identifiseer. 'n Omvattende statistiese analise van die verhoudingsgetalle is uitgevoer om bogenoemde doelwitte te bevredig. Die eerste deel van die analise is op 'n enkel verteenwoordigende maatstaf gebaseer wat 'n gemiddelde van die drie-jaar opswaai en drie-jaar afswaai-fases onderskeidelik verteenwoordig. Gemiddelde en mediaanwaardes is vir die KI en AI ondememings vir die opswaai- en afswaai-fases bereken. 'n Profiel-analise gebaseer op Hotelling se T2 toets is gebruik om die verhoudingsgetalle wat benaderd normaal verdeel is, te ontleed. Die nie-parametriese toetse "Mann-Whitney U-test" en "Wilcoxon matched-pairs test" is gebruik om die verhoudings wat nie benaderd normaal verdeel is nie, te ontleed. Die tweede dee I van die studie fokus op 'n analise van die verhoudingsgetalle wat op die individuele jare van die navorsingsperiode gebaseer is. Die statistiese tegnieke wat in die analise van die verhoudingsgetalle gebaseer op 'n enkel verteenwoordigende maatstaf gebruik is, is ook vir die analise van die verhoudingsgetalle gebaseer op die individuele jare gebruik. Die beperkings wat deur die analise gebaseer op 'n enkel verteenwoordigende maatstaf geidentifiseer is, word tot 'n groot mate in hierdie afdeling van die statistiese analise aangespreek. Deur die gemiddelde en mediaanwaardes gebaseer op die individuele jare te ontleed, is dit moontlik om die verhoudingsgetalle as een van 'n aantal patroongroepe, naamlik normaal verwagte, sloer-, lei-, sikliese en gemengde patrone, vir die Kl en AI ondememings te klassifiseer. Die patrone van 'n verskeidenheid van verhoudingsgetalle binne elk van die patroongroepe word ook uit 'n finansiele bestuursperspektief ontleed. Die bevindings van die studie bevestig die gestelde hipotese dat daar verskille in die gedrag van finansiele verhoudingsgetalle, gebaseer op 'n enkel-verteenwoordigende maatstaf en vir individuele jare van die navorsingsperiode, tussen Kl en AI ondememings gedurende een of albei van die opswaai- en afswaai-fases van die ekonomiese siklus is. Die analise beklemtoon verder dat 'n aantal verhoudingsgetalle wat op 'n enkel verteenwoordigende maatstaf gebaseer is, nie universeel vir alle ondememings en slegs gedurende 6f 'n opswaai- 6f 'n afswaai-fase van die ekonomiese siklus gebruik kan word nie. Verhoudingsgetalle wat deel van hierdie kategorie vorm, sluit ondememingsrentabiliteit (voor belasting), rentabiliteit van totale netto vaste- en bedryfsbates, dividend per aandeel, verkope tot totale netto bates, en rentedraende skuld tot totale aandeelhouersbelang in. Die resultate gebaseer op die individuele jare van die analise toon dat die oorgrote meerderheid van die verhoudingsgetalle normaal verwagte patrone volg. Van die tradisionele winsgewindheidsverhoudingsgetalle vertoon 80% normaal verwagte patrone vir die KI en AI ondememings gedurende die opswaai- en afswaai-fase. Tradisionele winsgewindheidsverhoudingsgetalle soos ondememingsrentabiliteit, rentabiliteit van netto vaste- en bedryfsbates, rentabiliteit van eie kapitaal en die waardeskeppingsverhoudingsgetal EVA, vorm deel van die normaal verwagte groep van patrone. Al die inflasie-aangepaste verhoudingsgetalle toon ook normaal verwagte patrone. Hierdie groep van verhoudingsgetalle toon relatiewe stabiliteit gedurende die ekonomiese siklus en is vir medium- en langtermyn finansiele vooruitskatting geskik omdat hulle die besigheidsiklus volg. Ongeveer 39% van die verhoudingsgetalle toon gemengde patrone, m.a.w. verskillende patrone vir die KI en AI ondememings. Die groei in verdeelbare inkomste, kontantvloei tot rentebetalings, markwaarde van aandeelhouersbelang tot boekwaarde van aandeelhouersbelang en mark-toegevoegde waarde verhoudingsgetalle toon gedragspatrone vir die KI en AI ondememings wat moontlik die ekonomiese siklus kan lei. Hierdie verhoudingsgetalle mag 'n aanduider van verwagte opswaai- en afswaai-fases in die ekonomiese siklus wees. Die relevansie van die resultate vir KI ondememings dui op die groter gebruik van vreemde kapitaal gedurende die afswaai-fase om kostes en bedryfskapitaal behoeftes te dek wanneer die vraag na produkte en dienste afneem as gevolg van 'n daling in die ekonomie. Die patroon wat deur verdienste per aandeel aangedui word, gee 'n moontlike aanduiding van 'n verwagte opswaai-fase in die ekonomiese siklus. 'n Toename III die kontantvloei-totrentebetalingsverhoudingsgetal gedurende die afswaai-fase mag 'n aanduider van 'n naderende opswaai in die ekonomiese siklus wees. Die relevansie van die resultate vir AI ondememings toon dat 'n opswaai in die ekonomiese siklus deur 'n toename in die bedryfskapitaal tot kontant uit ondememingsaktiwiteite verhoudingsgetal verwag kan word. Meer vreemde kapitaal word gedurende die opswaai-fase gebruik wat aan 'n toename in die vraag toegeskryf kan word en gevolglik tot 'n hoer hefboomsituasie vir AI ondememings lei. 'n Toename in die kontantvloei tot die rente betaal verhoudingsgetal gedurende die afswaai-fase mag 'n aanduider van 'n naderende opswaai in die ekonomiese siklus wees. 'n Aantal beperkings van die studie sluit in: die gebruik van 'n enkele opswaai- en afswaaifase wat die ekonomiese bewegings verteenwoordig; die benadering wat gevolg is om tussen die KI en AI ondememings te onderskei benodig verdere ondersoek; en die groot aantal verhoudingsgetalle kan in toekomstige studies tot 'n sekere aantal indikatore beperk word. Die belangrikste aanbevelings van die studie sluit in: die gebruik van veelvoudige opswaai- en afswaai-fases van die ekonomiese siklus; meer navorsing op die sloer- en leipatrone wat deur die KI en AI ondememings vir spesifieke verhoudingsgetalle getoon word; die moontlikheid om 'n ander benadering te volg om tussen KI en AI ondememings te onderskei, kan oorweeg word; en verdere navorsing word benodig om die betroubaarheid te bepaal van die indikatore wat dui op lei patrone wat 'n opswaai- of afswaai-fase in die ekonomiese siklus kan voorspel.