The purpose of this diploma thesis is complex analysis of labour market in the Czech Republic since the dissolution of Czechoslovakia, with the emphasis on the critical years 2008-2012. The object of the analysis is the investigation of labour market indicators by trend analysis and standard errors, assessment of the hypothesis about volatility of labour market, determination of strong and weak labour market indicators, further the comparison with countries, which succeeded during the economic crisis, and some possible steps, which would lead to stabilization of the Czech labour market. Finally I investigate if the ruling political parties affect the economy (unemployment rate and inflation) in order to increase their chances of being re-elected by using the linear regression. In conclusion the labour market indicators are very volatile, although the Czech labour market is in good condition in comparison with other countries in the European Union. The political business cycle research shows that it does not occur in the Czech Republic, but this can be caused by the transformation period and the short time series.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第24164号 / 経博第658号 / 新制||経||302(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 西山 慎一, 准教授 高橋 修平, 准教授 安井 大真 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DFAM

This research examines the impact of external shocks on Nigeria’s output performance for the period 1981 – 2015. It aims to bring to the fore the importance of considering external shocks during policy design and implementation. The multivariate VAR and VECM frameworks were used to evaluate the impact of the shock variables on Nigeria’s output performance and to achieve the stated objectives. Findings show that the external shock and domestic policy variables have short-run effects on Nigeria’s output performance. Also, all the measures of external shocks and domestic policies display some viable information in explaining the variabilities in Nigeria’s output performance over the horizon. The comparison between the results of the VECM and the unrestricted VAR shows that the unrestricted VAR model outperformed the VECM. The overall result of the study confirms the view about the vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to external shocks. These shocks explain more than half of the variance in real output performance and have varying effects on output performance in Nigeria. The dynamic response of output performance to each of the defined shock variables show that output performance responds rapidly to the shock variables, while its response to the domestic economic variables is seemingly moderate. Finally, the variance decomposition show that international crude oil price and terms of trade have the largest share in accounting for the variability in output performance, followed closely by the shares of capital inflows and monetary policy.

published_or_final_version / abstract / Architecture / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Viso pasaulio ir atskirų valstybių ekonomika pasižymi tuo, jog pagaminamos produkcijos kiekis kasmet kinta ir ilgu laikotarpiu būna nepastovus. Vienais metais produkcijos pagaminama daugiau, kitais mažiau. Pradėjusi mažėti gamybos apimtis sukelia daugybę šalutinių efektų: ima mažėti įmonių pajamos ir pelnai, mažiau pinigų lieka investicijoms, mažėja produktyvumas, didėja prekių atsargos sandėliuose, galiausiai tenka atleisti dalį darbuotojų ar sumažinti darbo užmokestį. Žmonės, gaunantys mažesnes pajamas, išleidžia mažiau pinigų ir taip priverčia įmones dar labiau riboti savo išlaidas. Tokiu būdu patenkama į užburtą ratą, kai priežastys tampa pasekmėmis ir jos tarpusavy kartojasi, tačiau ne visos ūkio šakos vienodai stipriai reaguoja į ekonomikos svyravimus. Darbo objektas – skirtingų ūkio sektorių jautrumas verslo ciklams. Darbo tikslas – nustatyti individualų skirtingų ūkio sektorių jautrumą verslo ciklams. Darbo uždaviniai: • Išanalizuoti verslo ciklo sąvoką, siekiant suvokti jo įtaką visai ekonomikai ir įmonėms • Nustatyti ciklinių svyravimų priežastis bei pasekmes, kurios atsiranda ekonomikai esant žemiausioje verslo ciklo fazėje • Remiantis moksliniais darbais bei specializuotų agentūrų informacija, išnagrinėti verslo ciklų indikatorius, nustatant jų reikšmę verslo ciklų analizėje • Išanalizuoti įmonėje dėl ekonomikos cikliškumo susidarantį užburtą ratą, kuris leistų suprasti procesus, vykstančius ciklų metu • Remiantis mokslininkų tyrimais, nustatyti daugiausiai ir... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The economy of all the world and different counties is characterized by the annual changes of production volume, that in the long-term is erratic. One year the amount of production is higher, others lower. The decrease in volume of production causes many side effects such as declining corporate earnings and profits, less money for investment, declining productivity, increasing inventory of goods in warehouses, then it leads firing workers or reducing wages. People with lower levels of income, spend less money and that makes companies even more to limit their costs. In this way, we get into the vicious circle, where causes become results and they inter-repeat, but not all economic sectors equally respond to economic fluctuations. Object – different economic sectors sensitivity to business cycles. The aim – to identify the individual sensitivity of different economic sectors to business cycles. Objectives: • To explore the concept of the business cycle, in order to understand it‘s impact on the economy and companies. • To find out the causes and the consequences of the cyclical fluctuations, that appears then the economy is in the lowest stage of the business cycle. • On the basis of scientific works and information of the specialized agencies, to analyze the business cycle indicators determining their value in business cycle analysis. • To analyze a vicious circle in the company, forming because of cycles of economy, which would allow to understand the processes during the... [to full text]

Asset pricing implications of a DSGE model with recursive preferences and nominal rigidities. I study jointly macroeconomic dynamics and asset prices implied by a production economy featuring nominal price rigidities and Epstein-Zin (1989) preferences. Using a reasonable calibration, the macroeconomic DSGE model is consistent with a number of stylized facts observed in financial markets like the equity premium, a negative real term spread, a positive nominal term spread and the predictability of stock returns, without compromising the model's ability to fit key macroeconomic variables. The interest rate smoothing in the monetary policy rule helps generate a low risk-free rate volatility which has been difficult to achieve for standard real business cycle models where monetary policy is neutral. In an application, I show that the model provides a framework for analyzing monetary policy interventions and the associated effects on asset prices and the real economy. Macroeconomic news and the stock market: Evidence from the eurozone. This paper is an empirical study of excess return behavior in the stock market in the euro area around days when important macroeconomic news about inflation, unemployment or interest rates are scheduled for announcement. I identify state dependence such that equity risk premia on announcement days are significantly higher when the interests rates are in the vicinity of the zero lower bound. Moreover, I provide evidence that for the whole sample period, the average excess returns in the eurozone are only higher on days when FOMC announcements are scheduled for release. However, this result vanishes in a low interest rate regime. Finally, I document that the European stock market does not command a premium for scheduled announcements by the European Central Bank (ECB). The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market. We examine the impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on German excess stock returns and the possible reasons for such a response. First, we conduct an event study to asses the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on stock returns. Second, within the VAR framework of Campbell and Ammer (1993), we decompose excess stock returns into news regarding expected excess returns, future dividends and future real interest rates. We measure conventional monetary policy shocks using futures markets data. Our main findings are that the overall variation in German excess stock returns mainly reflects revisions in expectations about dividends and that the stock market response to monetary policy shocks is dependent on the prevailing interest rate regime. In periods of negative real interest rates, a surprise monetary tightening leads to a decrease in excess stock returns. The channels behind this response are news about higher expected excess returns and lower future dividends.

Les fluctuations macroéconomiques dans les pays émergents sont plus prononcées que celles observées pour les pays développés. On explique cet écart par des imperfections de marché plus importantes dans ce groupe de pays, sous la forme de rigidités nominales comme c’est le cas dans le modèle Néo-Keynésien standard. On y ajoute également des rigidités réelles, ce qui rend les réactions des agents économiques à des chocs exogènes sous-optimales, en comparaison avec le cadre de la théorie des cycles réels. A ces imperfections de marché s’ajoutent des imperfections institutionnelles, où le rôle du secteur public est modélisé suivant une relation d’agence entre ce dernier comme agent fournisseur du bien public, et les ménages qui sont les principaux, demandeurs de ce bien. Les préférences endogènes du planificateur social entraînent également des distorsions entraînant une exacerbation du cycle économique. / Macroeconomic fluctuations in small, open emerging economies 5 have only recently been of interest to the literature. This is due to a host of issues, ranging from data reliability and quality, to the relevance of the business cycle concept when applied to those economies. Nonetheless, this dissertation presents general equilibrium model applications to emerging economies. The central theme of this dissertation is that imperfect market and institutional structures can account for the excess volatility in macroeconomic fluctuations, as compared against developed economies. We extend the New Keynesian Synthesis framework to accommodate the distinctive features and stylised facts compiled for emerging economies.

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar como a política fiscal brasileira respondeu às variações do ciclo econômico no período de 1997 a 2016. A partir do uso de dados trimestrais, busca-se entender se a política fiscal brasileira apresentou comportamento pró-cíclico, isto é, se atuou no sentido de reforçar os ciclos econômicos, se apresentou comportamento anti-cíclico, no qual as medidas de política fiscal são implementadas a fim de possibilitar um movimento fiscal na direção contrária aos ciclos, ou se foi tipicamente acíclica, sem possuir qualquer relação com o momento no qual a economia se encontrava. O estudo se dará analisando o superávit primário e enfatizando como certas variáveis macroeconômicas reagem a variações do hiato do produto. A análise se dará tanto do lado da despesa, com ênfase no gasto e também no consumo do governo, como também no que tange à receita. A análise pelo lado da receita é a grande contribuição deste trabalho para a literatura existente uma vez que os trabalhos já existentes para o caso brasileiro focam apenas no lado do gasto. Ainda no que diz respeito à receita, como a arrecadação total possui um comportamento tipicamente endógeno já amplamente discutido pela literatura existente, o foco se dará usando alíquotas efetivas médias de arrecadação tributária calculadas em estudos recentes. Os resultados indicam um comportamento pró-cíclico da política fiscal brasileira nos últimos vinte anos, tanto do lado da receita como da despesa, bem como uma inércia fiscal que ajuda a explicar o agravamento do problema da dívida pública e de solvência fiscal que o Estado brasileiro vem enfrentando recentemente. / The aim of this work is to analyze how the Brazilian fiscal policy responded to the variations of the business cycle within the period from 1997 to 2016. By using quarterly data, we seek to understand if the Brazilian fiscal policy presented a procyclical behavior, that is, if it acted so as to reinforce the business cycles, if it presented countercyclical behavior, in which the fiscal policy measures are implemented in order to allow a fiscal movement in the opposite direction of the cycles, or if it was typically acyclical bearing no relation to the moment in which the economy was subject. This study analyzes the primary surplus and emphasizes how certain macroeconomic variables react to the variations of the output gap. The analysis is conducted from the point of view of the expenditure, with emphasis on public spending and also in the government consumption, as well as the revenue. The analysis from the point of view of the revenue is the great contribution of this work to the existing literature as the already existing studies for the Brazilian case focus only on the point of view of the expenditure. Still regarding the revenue, as the total revenue has a typically endogenous behavior already largely discussed by the existing literature, the focus is on the average effective tax rates of the tax revenue calculated in recent studies. The results indicate a procyclical behavior of the Brazilian fiscal policy over the past twenty years, from both points of view: the revenue and also the expenditure, as well as a fiscal inertia which helps to explain the aggravation of the problem of the public debt and the fiscal solvency that the Brazilian State has been facing recently.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Flavio Portella Daniel.pdf: 538729 bytes, checksum: 0932c95c07e4d068ac5d167abf4d29a3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-06-03 / This paper is aimed to show the relation between fiscal policy and business cycles using the structural budget balance as a tool to define the cyclical part of the fiscal results. We believe the better use of fiscal policy should respect business cycles because a pattern of economic growth today may not be seen in the future. This fact may cause a direct impact to the welfare state. Thus, we did a review of literature where we could see that the better fiscal action before business cycles is a counter-cyclical fiscal policy. However, this policy has been in use for just developing countries. Volatility of the government spending, access to international market credit, political pressures, control of corruption and level of fiscal institutions can limit the application of optimal fiscal policy during the business cycles / Este trabalho tem como objetivo mostrar a relação entre política fiscal e os ciclos econômicos, apresentando o balanço orçamentário estrutural como instrumento para definir o componente cíclico dos resultados fiscais de um país. Acreditamos que o melhor uso da política fiscal deva sempre considerar a existência dos ciclos econômicos, pois um padrão de crescimento da economia hoje pode não ser assistido no futuro, trazendo impactos diretos ao bem-estar da nação. Dessa forma, foi feita uma resenha da literatura onde foi possível constatar que a melhor forma de atuar diante os ciclos é através da política fiscal contra-cíclica, sendo esta, somente praticada pelos países desenvolvidos. Fatores como dispersão dos gastos públicos, acesso ao mercado de crédito internacional, pressões políticas, controle de corrupção e nível institucional das autarquias fiscais podem ser apontados como limitadores à implantação da política fiscal ótima durante os ciclos econômicos

Made available in DSpace on 2015-12-03T18:35:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Eduardo_da_Silva_Flores.pdf: 1676087 bytes, checksum: 69a44df31ec0269d4d7845ee791ea65e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-03 / This dissertation investigated earnings management (EM) by means of discretionary accruals (DA) in companies listed in Brazilian and US capital markets in periods of economic crises. Taking into account that accounting practices both affect and are affected by the environment in which they are found, more specifically by cultural, legal, political and economic factors, it was expected that, based on a conducted review of the literature, that at times characterized as economic distortions companies would identify proper occasions for obtaining private gains by means of EM practices. In order to achieve that purpose, two samplings were composed, one by companies listed in the S??o Paulo Stock Exchange (BM&F Bovespa) with quarterly data for the period from 1999 to 2009, amounting to 8,600 observations, and another of companies listed in Nyse and Nasdaq, with 99,931 observations, for the period from 1999 to 2010. It should be mentioned that the non-inclusion of 2010 for Brazilian companies occurred due to the convergence of the International Financial Reporting System (IFRS) in that year, which might lead to the creation of undesired biases in the research results. The approach used was that of Aggregate Discretionary Accruals (ADA) with regression based on the panel data technique, and initially obtaining the discretionary accruals by estimation in the Modified Jones Model (1995) adapted with the variables Return on Assets (ROA) and quarter. Subsequently, the DA were regressed against the variable of interest to the study, the dummy crisis variable, together with the other control terms: sectors, Book-to-Market ratio, provision for income and social contribution taxes, and tax burden, the last two ones applicable only to the Brazilian data sample. The statistical tests showed that in both equity markets significant relationships were evidenced between the crisis variable and the discretionary accruals, indicating that, at such times, companies manage their earnings more than in other periods. More specifically, the estimated coefficients had negative values, which shows that the companies have reduced their DA on those dates, possibly aiming at maintaining their profitability standards, which typically characterizes the practice of target earnings. Also regarding the identification of variables that might complement the aggregate accrual models, and improving the explanatory capacity of such tools in the search for discretionary accruals as proxies for earnings management, one can verify that items such as (i) sectors, (ii) taxation, (iii) market values compared to book values and (iv) quarters, representing the adjustment of temporary trends that escape the study's purpose have shown to be extremely important for the gauging of estimators that could reduce regression biases / Esta disserta????o investigou o gerenciamento de resultados (GR) por meio dos accruals discricion??rios (ADs) em empresas listadas nos mercados de capitais do Brasil e dos Estados Unidos da Am??rica nos per??odos de crises econ??micas. Considerando que as pr??ticas cont??beis afetam e s??o afetadas pelo ambiente no qual est??o inseridas, mais especificamente por fatores culturais, legais, pol??ticos e econ??micos, era esperado, com base na revis??o da literatura realizada, que em momentos caracterizados como de distor????es econ??micas, fossem vislumbradas pelas empresas ocasi??es prop??cias ?? obten????o de ganhos privados por meio das pr??ticas de GR. Para a realiza????o de tal prop??sito, foram compostas duas amostras, sendo uma de empresas listadas na BM&FBovespa com dados trimestrais do per??odo de 1999 a 2009, perfazendo um total de 8.600 observa????es, e outra de empresas listadas nas bolsas de valores Nyse e Nasdaq com 99.931 observa????es para o per??odo de 1999 a 2010. Cabe mencionar que a n??o inclus??o do ano de 2010, para empresas brasileiras, ocorreu em fun????o da converg??ncia ao padr??o internacional de normas cont??beis (IFRS) nessa data, o que poderia promover a cria????o de vieses indesejados nos resultados da pesquisa. Foi empregada a abordagem de agregados de acumula????es discricion??rias (AD) regredidos com base na t??cnica de dados em painel, obtendo-se inicialmente os AD por meio da estima????o do Modelo de Jones Modificado (1995) adaptado com as vari??veis ROA (Return of Assets) e trimestre. Posteriormente os AD foram regredidos contra a vari??vel de interesse do estudo a dummy crise, junto dos demais termos de controle: setores, BTM (Book to Market), provis??o IRCS e carga tribut??ria, sendo esses dois ??ltimos itens aplic??veis somente ?? amostra de dados brasileira. Os testes estat??sticos revelaram que em ambos os mercados acion??rios foram comprovadas rela????es significativas entre a vari??vel crise e os accruals discricion??rios, indicando que nessas ocasi??es as empresas gerenciaram mais seus resultados do que em outros per??odos. Mais especificamente os coeficientes estimados indicaram valores negativos, o que demonstra que as companhias reduziram seus ADs nessas datas, possivelmente em busca da manuten????o de padr??es de lucratividade, o que caracteriza tipicamente a pr??tica do lucro-alvo (Target Earnings). Ainda no que se trata da identifica????o de vari??veis que pudessem complementar os modelos de agregados de acumula????es, melhorando a capacidade explicativa destas ferramentas na busca por acumula????es discricion??rias como proxy do gerenciamento de resultados, pode-se verificar que itens tais como: (i) setores, (ii) tributa????o, (iii) valores de mercado comparados aos cont??beis e (iv) trimestres, representando o ajustamento de tend??ncias temporais que fogem ao objeto de estudo, mostraram-se extremamente importantes para o aferimento de estimadores que reduzissem os vieses da regress??o