<p>I nära tio år har främst amerikanska placerare utnyttjat strategin carry trade för att skapa positiva avkastningar. Strategin innebär att lån tas på en marknad med låga räntor för att sedan placeras på en annan marknad med högre räntor. Det är främst de japanska och amerikanska räntemarknaderna som har använts.</p><p>Syftet med uppsatsen är att utreda om det går att få en positiv avkastning vid carry trade-affärer. Vi kommer även att belysa vilka risker som uppstår vid dessa investeringar, samt undersöka vad som kan göras för att minimera de risker som uppstår. Genom att studera andra länder med betydande räntedifferenser vill vi även utreda om denna strategi går att tillämpa på andra ränte- och valutamarknader än Japan och USA.</p><p>För att uppfylla syftet har en kvantitativ studie genomförts baserad på sekundärdata, där vi skapat olika fiktiva affärer över tre tidsperioder för att kunna räkna ut och jämföra avkastningar. Vi har även undersökt olika hedgingstrategier för att se om det är något som en aktör kan använda sig av på ett effektivt sätt vid nämnda affärer.</p><p>I teorikapitlet tar vi upp två relevanta teorier för arbetet, uncovered interest rate parity och covered interest rate parity. Den första teorin säger att om två länders räntor skiljer sig åt förväntas växelkursen mellan ländernas valutor att på sikt helt och hållet ta ut ränteskillnaden. Den andra teorin säger att en riskfri investering, oavsett land, alltid ska ge samma avkastning.</p><p>Resultatet från undersökningen visar att teorin uncovered interest rate parity stämmer dåligt överens med vår empiri. I studien har vi funnit att det är möjligt att skapa positiva avkastningar om affärerna är riskfyllda. Covered interest rate parity motsvarar däremot empirin i mycket hög grad. Undersökningen har inte resulterat i några lämpliga metoder att använda för att hedga carry trade-affärer mot valutarisken. Studien visar även på att det går att göra lyckade carry trade-affärer på andra marknader än Japan och USA.</p>

I nära tio år har främst amerikanska placerare utnyttjat strategin carry trade för att skapa positiva avkastningar. Strategin innebär att lån tas på en marknad med låga räntor för att sedan placeras på en annan marknad med högre räntor. Det är främst de japanska och amerikanska räntemarknaderna som har använts. Syftet med uppsatsen är att utreda om det går att få en positiv avkastning vid carry trade-affärer. Vi kommer även att belysa vilka risker som uppstår vid dessa investeringar, samt undersöka vad som kan göras för att minimera de risker som uppstår. Genom att studera andra länder med betydande räntedifferenser vill vi även utreda om denna strategi går att tillämpa på andra ränte- och valutamarknader än Japan och USA. För att uppfylla syftet har en kvantitativ studie genomförts baserad på sekundärdata, där vi skapat olika fiktiva affärer över tre tidsperioder för att kunna räkna ut och jämföra avkastningar. Vi har även undersökt olika hedgingstrategier för att se om det är något som en aktör kan använda sig av på ett effektivt sätt vid nämnda affärer. I teorikapitlet tar vi upp två relevanta teorier för arbetet, uncovered interest rate parity och covered interest rate parity. Den första teorin säger att om två länders räntor skiljer sig åt förväntas växelkursen mellan ländernas valutor att på sikt helt och hållet ta ut ränteskillnaden. Den andra teorin säger att en riskfri investering, oavsett land, alltid ska ge samma avkastning. Resultatet från undersökningen visar att teorin uncovered interest rate parity stämmer dåligt överens med vår empiri. I studien har vi funnit att det är möjligt att skapa positiva avkastningar om affärerna är riskfyllda. Covered interest rate parity motsvarar däremot empirin i mycket hög grad. Undersökningen har inte resulterat i några lämpliga metoder att använda för att hedga carry trade-affärer mot valutarisken. Studien visar även på att det går att göra lyckade carry trade-affärer på andra marknader än Japan och USA.

Seminario para optar al título de Ingeniero Comercial, Mención Economía / Recent evidence has pointed out the existence of an after crisis global liquidity in which bond issuances of non-financial corporations has kept growing. This evidence also suggests that firms take advantage of cheaper external debt conditions and increase their cash or liquid assets when the conditions for pursuing carry trade activities are more attractive. However, we propose that the carry trade story is too narrow and hypothesize that increment in cash holdings may stem from firm's investing strategies. Namely, firms raise cheaper debt to take advantage of favorable external conditions in order to realize investment in later periods. Using firm-level information for six Latin American countries, we find evidence that suggest that firms use hard currency issuances in order to finance future investment. This result is robust and heterogeneous. We include other country-specific variables, as the presence of capital controls, and check the robustness of our findings; the main results hold.

[pt] A teoria da paridade da taxa de juros relaciona os mercados cambiais com os mercados financeiros internacionais. A paridade descoberta da taxa de juros considera que a rentabilidade esperada dos títulos domésticos e estrangeiros é a mesma; no entanto, diversos testes empíricos demonstraram que esta teoria não é válida no curto prazo. Esta não-verificação possibilitou a criação de uma estratégia financeira, o carry trade, que acontece quando se toma emprestado dinheiro em países com baixas taxas de juros para aplicá-lo em países onde as taxas de juros são maiores. O objetivo deste estudo é verificar a validade da condição de paridade de juros entre as taxas brasileira e americana, e investigar a relação deste carry trade com variáveis financeiras relacionadas: a taxa de câmbio real-dólar, o diferencial entre as taxas de juros dos Estados Unidos e do Brasil, os mercados acionários nos dois países, e o sentimento do investidor no mercado brasileiro. A análise empírica foi realizada através dos modelos MQO (Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários), GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) e SVAR (Structural Vector Autoregression). / [en] Interest rate parity theory relates exchange rate markets to international financial markets. The Uncovered interest rate parity condition considers the expected returns of investing in domestic or foreign assets to be equal; even so, empirical tests show this theory cannot be verified on the short run. This enabled a profitable strategy, the carry trade, which consists in borrowing money in a low interest rate currency and investing in bonds in a high interest rate currency. This study tries to verify the interest rate parity condition between Brazilian and American interest rates, and investigate the relationship among this carry trade and related financial variables: the real-dollar exchange rate, the interest rates differential, the stock markets in the two countries and the investor’s sentiment in the Brazilian market. Empirical analysis used the models OLS (Ordinary Least squares), GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) and SVAR (Structural Vector Autoregression).

[pt] O presente trabalho visa verificar a operação de carry trade. A lucratividade desta operação é observada quando a diferença de taxa de juros entre os dois países em análise é maior que a variação cambial do período. A verificação da operação, conforme literatura do tema, é realizada através do modelo de paridade descoberta de taxa de juros (PDTJ). A rejeição do modelo, vista através de regressão, possibilita a aceitação da lucratividade da operação. Este estudo, portanto, analisa esta operação entre o Brasil, país de alta taxa de juros e Estados Unidos, país de baixa taxa de juros. Ademais, o estudo visa analisar a operação em um momento de instabilidade econômica, período de 2005 a 2016, no qual consta a crise de 2008 que impactou fortemente as duas economias. / [en] The present work aims to check the carry trade operation. The profitability of this operation is observed when the interest rate difference between the two countries under analysis is greater than the exchange variation for the same period. The literature of carry trade is verified through the uncovered interest rate parity model (UIP). Rejection of the model, performed through regression, makes it possible to accept the profitability of the operation. This study, therefore, analyzes this operation between Brazil, a country with high interest rates and the United States, a country with low interest rates. In addition, the study aims to analyze the operation in a time of economic instability, from 2005 to2016, which includes the crisis of 2008 that strongly impacted the two economies.

Orientador: Ricardo de Medeiros Carneiro / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-19T17:54:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rossi_PedroLinhares_D.pdf: 4297083 bytes, checksum: 33b97eae12f2aac6ebb9ee4ebf0cd707 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: Essa Tese procura desenvolver as especificidades da formação da taxa de câmbio brasileira tendo em conta fatores microeconômicos do mercado de câmbio como as instituições, os agentes, a regulamentação, as formas de especulação e os canais de arbitragem entre os diferentes mercados. Identifica-se na especulação com moedas, protagonizada pelo carry trade, um elemento de distorção cambial em diversas economias do sistema e, em especial, na economia brasileira. As conclusões do trabalho apontam para centralidade do mercado de derivativos e do carry trade na dinâmica cambial brasileira recente, onde se destacam o papel dos estrangeiros e investidores institucionais na formação de tendências no mercado de câmbio futuro, e dos bancos que transmitem essa pressão especulativa para o mercado à vista ao realizarem ganhos de arbitragem. Em certo sentido, propõe-se uma hierarquia entre os mercados de câmbio, onde o mercado futuro, impulsionado pelo mercado offshore, condiciona a formação de posições no mercado interbancário, assim como a liquidez no mercado à vista. Dessa forma, identifica-se uma determinação financeira da taxa de câmbio que distorce sistematicamente a trajetória cambial e condiciona a atuação desse preço macroeconômico como mecanismo de ajustamento e como ferramenta para o desenvolvimento econômico / Abstract: This Dissertation aims to develop the specificities of Brazilian exchange rate formation taking into account the microeconomic factors of the foreign exchange market as institutions, agents, regulations, forms and channels of speculation and arbitrage between different markets. It is identified in currency speculation, led by the carry trade, an element of exchange rate distortion in several economies and, in particular, in the Brazilian economy. The conclusions of this study points the centrality of the derivatives market and the carry trade in recent Brazilian exchange rate dynamics, where can be highlighted the role of foreign and institutional investors in the formation of trends in exchange rate future market, and the role of banks responsible for transmitting the speculative pressure to the spot market in order to realize arbitrage gains. In a sense, we propose a hierarchy among exchange rate markets, where the futures market, driven by the offshore market, implies the formation of positions in the interbank market, as well as the spot market liquidity. Thus, it identifies a financial determination of exchange rate that systematically distorts the exchange rate trajectory and limits the performance of this macroeconomic price as an adjustment mechanism and as a tool for economic development / Doutorado / Teoria Economica / Doutor em Ciências Econômicas

This thesis aims to back-test the ability of implied volatility carry trade strategies to outperform the carry trade strategies in the FX markets. Recent research has shown that the profitability of the strategies is partly attributable to the market mispricings of the forward volatility agreements and a tendency of the forward implied volatility to overestimate the future spot implied volatility. This thesis uses a similar approach to construct portfolios containing 10 developed as well as 9 emerging market currencies. Our approach is based on the assumption that Uncovered Interest rate Parity (UIP), Forward Unbiasedness Hypothesis (FUH) and Forward Volatility Unbiasedness Hypothesis (FVUH) do not hold and therefore providing investors with several opportunities to construct trading strategies taking advantage of these market mispricings. In this thesis, we show that the foreign exchange carry trade strategy composed of the specific developed and emerging country's currencies can be outperformed by portfolio consisting of the implied volatility carry trade strategies in the FX market over the analysed period. The portfolios are adjusted to the riskiness which is accounted for by the VIX and VXY-G7 index for developed and VIX and VXY-EM index for emerging economies. The strong performance of the strategies outlined in this thesis can be of significant value to FX traders and portfolio managers.

[pt] Na literatura é quase unânime a rejeição da relação de paridade descoberta das taxas de juros (PDJ). Isto significa que existiriam retornos excessivos previsíveis para a especulação cambial. Esta dissertação documenta os retornos das taxas de juros em regimes de câmbio controlado em diversos episódios. As evidências apontam que esses regimes terminam não só com abrutas depreciações, mas também que essas depreciações, na grande maioria dos casos, superam o diferencial de juros acumulados desde o início do regime. Ou seja, nesses casos não haveriam retornos excessivos como indicado pelos testes usuais da PDJ. Identificamos as variáveis que prevêm a magnitude da variação cambial ocorrida após a flexibilização do regime cambial. Em seguida, analisamos o retorno da estratégia de carry trade por tipo de regime cambial concluindo que nos regimes de câmbio controlado o retorno esperado é maior mas o downside risk também. / [en] The failure of uncovered interest rate parity is almost unanimous in the literature. The consequence is the existence of predictable excess returns to currency speculation. This paper documents the returns to the carry trade strategy in fixed exchange rate regimes in a set of episodes. Empirical documentation shows not only that these regimes end in abrupt depreciation but also that the depreciation generally wipes out the entire accumulated interest rate differential during all the period. This anecdotal evidence contrasts to that commonly found by uncovered interest parity tests. We identify the leading indicators to the currency crises magnitudes. We also analyze the differences in returns to the carry trade strategy by currency regimes founding that both the expected return and the downside risks are greater in fixed currency regimes.

<p>This dissertation is a collection of papers with the unifying objective being to better understand crash risk in foreign exchange markets. I investigate how exposure to the risk of currency crashes is able to provide a unified rationalization of the returns of various sorted currency portfolios.</p><p>In the first chapter, I identify an aggregate global currency skewness risk factor, which I denote SKEW. Currency portfolios that have higher average excess returns covary more positively with this risk factor. They suffer losses in times when high interest rate investment currencies have a greater tendency to depreciate sharply as a group relative to low interest rate funding currencies. Consequently, they earn higher average excess returns as reward for exposure to this risk. I create three sets of sorted currency portfolios reflecting three distinct sources of variation in average excess currency returns. The first set sorts currencies based on interest rate differentials. The second set sorts currencies based on currency momentum. The third set sorts currencies based on currency undervaluedness relative to purchasing power power parity (PPP) implied exchange rates. I find that differences in exposure to the global currency skewness risk factor can explain the systematic variation in average excess currency returns within all three groups of portfolios much better than existing foreign exchange risk factors in the literature.</p><p>In the second chapter, I build on the first chapter by studying the extent to which currency crash risk is predictable or unpredictable and whether the pricing power of aggregate currency skewness, uncovered in the first chapter, is due to unpredictable or predictable crash risk. Focusing on currency crash risk proxied using realized currency skewness at both the individual currency level and at the aggregate level using the SKEW risk factor introduced in the first chapter, I investigate whether either form of crash risk is predictable using only past information about crash risk. In particular, I use past information on both individual currency level and aggregate level measures based on both lagged realized currency skewness and lagged option implied risk neutral skewness. I find evidence that there is not much predictability at the individual country level or at the aggregate level over the full sample period considered. However, there is some evidence of predictability at the aggregate level since 1999, and especially so when option implied risk neutral skewness measures are used. Additionally, I use the predictions of SKEW and conduct asset pricing similar to that in chapter 1 using predicted and unpredicted SKEW to see whether its pricing power comes from predictable or unpredictable components. I find evidence that it is unpredictable currency crash risk that is very important, as the asset pricing results are largely identical when either SKEW or SKEW forecast errors are used. and whether the pricing power of</p> / Dissertation

Submitted by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2008-11-17T14:47:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 055204043-Tatiana_Vasques.pdf: 423855 bytes, checksum: e6dc73948b1e0404798d3018bb4b4e82 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Antoanne Pontes(antoanne.pontes@fgv.br) on 2008-11-18T11:44:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 055204043-Tatiana_Vasques.pdf: 423855 bytes, checksum: e6dc73948b1e0404798d3018bb4b4e82 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2008-11-18T11:44:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 055204043-Tatiana_Vasques.pdf: 423855 bytes, checksum: e6dc73948b1e0404798d3018bb4b4e82 (MD5) / Este estudo teve como objetivo investigar se algumas situações específicas do Brasil podem contribuir para que as empresas apresentem índices de liquidez ainda maiores, tais como a possibilidade de captação de recursos de baixo custo e aplicação à taxas mais altas e a existência de fatores que resultam na discrepância entre lucro e geração de caixa das companhias. Foram examinadas as proxies para estas situações através de um estudo em painel com 288 empresas não financeiras de capital aberto no período de 1997 a 2006 com a inclusão de outras variáveis que explicam as variações no nível de liquidez relacionadas aos motivos de precaução, transação, especulação e assimetria de informação. Os principais resultados sugerem que o nível de liquidez nas firmas brasileiras é maior nas empresas que possuem algum tipo de benefício fiscal e/ou conseguem financiamentos a custos reduzidos, medido pela acessibilidade a outros mercados para captação de recursos (dummy ADR).