Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Benjamin B. Schwab / Khat, a lucrative cash crop cultivated in and near the Horn of Africa, is gaining the interest of researchers around the globe. Despite its potential to provide excess income, economic opportunity, and access to technology to those who produce it, the conflicting legal status around the globe causes policy and trade disputes between countries. Research on the impact of khat production on household welfare is sparse. To address this, the purpose of this research is to determine what factors affect the decision to grow khat and subsequently determine the impact of khat production on labor, income, education expenditure, and food security. Data was extracted from a survey conducted in early 2017. A total of 365 households in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia were surveyed. We estimate the factors affecting the decision to grow khat by employing use of two logit models and one linear probability model to calculate marginal effects. We estimate the impact of khat production on labor, income, education expenditure, and food security through propensity score matching. Khat production appears to be adopted by households who are educated and apt to adopt improved technologies. These households are likely to own a donkey, own irrigation, and own more plots than a non-producing household. Practicing seed saving, conservation techniques, and growing more crops decreases the likelihood of growing khat. Regarding impacts, khat production increases on-farm male (41.8%) and female (62.1%) labor and income (41.7%), but decreases education expense (-10.7%), food consumption scores (-15.9%), and number of food shortage months (-16.2%). Overall, khat production uses more labor, generates higher incomes, and decreases food shortage months, but decreases expenditure on education and dietary diversity.

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(農学) / 甲第19044号 / 農博第2122号 / 新制||農||1032 / 31995 / 京都大学大学院農学研究科地域環境科学専攻 / (主査)教授 縄田 栄治, 教授 舟川 晋也, 教授 白岩 立彦 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(農学) / 甲第19044号 / 農博第2122号 / 新制||農||1032(附属図書館) / 学位論文||H27||N4926(農学部図書室) / 31995 / 京都大学大学院農学研究科地域環境科学専攻 / (主査)教授 縄田 栄治, 教授 舟川 晋也, 教授 白岩 立彦 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

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京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(農学) / 甲第19325号 / 農博第2146号 / 新制||農||1036(附属図書館) / 学位論文||H28||N4953(農学部図書室) / 32327 / 京都大学大学院農学研究科地域環境科学専攻 / (主査)教授 縄田 栄治, 教授 舟川 晋也, 教授 神﨑 護 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

This thesis investigates the history of economic differentiation in a Limbu village in east Nepal. By examining three historically overlapping productive processes - subsistence agriculture, cash crop cardamom cultivation, and international migration - this thesis shows how each productive process has contributed in different ways to the acceleration of economic differentiation. In particular this thesis focuses on cardamom cultivation which first provided a means to transform significantly the lives of a large section of Limbu society. Introduced into the village by a local inhabitant in 1968, and thereafter spread throughout the whole Kabeli river valley and beyond, the cardamom plant has given many households access to considerable cash. This has enabled some households to purchase property in the plains, send their children to English-medium private schools, and send sons abroad for work. Households with little or no cardamom however, have fallen into increasing indebtedness, losing access to land and becoming increasingly dependent on wage labour for survival. The thesis also discusses international labour migration, which has more recently become another important and lucrative productive process for a certain proportion of the village. This has resulted in the rapid growth of a dispersed village in Jhapa in the plains, which has become a hub for international migrants as well as a symbol of the hopes and aspirations of villagers. This has brought about yet further economic differentiation between households that have been able to finance visas for work abroad, and those that continue to struggle day to day. Despite the increased integration of the village with a national and global market, the continued existence of Limbu language and cultural practises emphasizes the active role villagers have played in shaping their current condition.

O objetivo do trabalho foi realizar uma análise econômica e de risco em sistemas integrados de produção agropecuária (SIPA) e de bovinos de corte de ciclo completo na Campanha Meridional do Rio Grande do Sul, região sul do Brasil, por um modelo de simulação. O modelo foi desenvolvido e operado em planilhas dinâmicas do Microsoft Excel®. O trabalho foi dividido em duas etapas, na primeira, foi realizada uma identificação e análise dos riscos existentes na produção de bovinos de corte e SIPA. Na segunda, foi realizada uma análise econômica e uma avaliação dos riscos de três sistemas de produção. Como resultado da primeira etapa, os principais fatores de risco na bovinocultura foram, condições climáticas, custo de produção, capacidade de investimento e gestão da propriedade. Na SIPA foram identificados novos ricos, como a produtividade da soja (Glycine max) e desconhecimento da atividade. No entanto, do total dos riscos considerados mais importantes, metade deles estão presentes nas duas atividades. Na segunda etapa, foram estabelecidos três sistemas de produção, bovinocultura de corte de ciclo completo (SBC), bovinocultura de corte de ciclo completo associado com leasing de uma área para soja (SLS) e bovinocultura de corte de ciclo completo com o cultivo de soja pelo próprio pecuarista (SCS). O sistema que apresentou maior margem bruta foi o SLS (R$ 223,57/ha) comparado aos outros dois sistemas (SBC: R$ 138,11/ha; SCS: R$ 149,62/ha). O SCS apresentou o maior risco entre os sistemas, devido a maior amplitude de resultados na margem bruta. A produtividade média da pecuária foi similar nos sistemas SBC e SLS (129,55 e 131,74 kg PV/ha/ano). Com exceção da produtividade da soja que foi o principal risco no SBS, todos os outros estiveram ligados as fontes de risco de mercado. Conclui-se que os produtores rurais percebem o SIPA com maior risco do que a bovinocultura. Em ambos os casos, o risco de produção é o que apresenta o maior número de fatores com alto risco de ocorrência e, portanto, deve receber especial atenção pelos produtores rurais. O que foi consolidado quando se concluiu que o melhor sistema foi o SLS por apresentar melhor margem bruta e menor risco que o SCS, e este último foi o que apresentou o maior risco, no entanto, os riscos que mais influenciaram a variação da margem bruta foram os de mercado e não os de produção. / The aim of this study was compare the economic and risk analysis on an integrated crop-livestock (ICLS) and a cycle complete beef cattle systems in the Campanha Meridional of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazilian Southern Region, through a simulation model. The simulation model was developed and operated through Microsoft Excel® dynamic worksheets. The research was divided in two stages, in the first, an identification and analysis of the existing risks in the production of beef cattle and ICLS was carried out. In the second, an economic and risk analysis of the three production systems. Because of the first stage, the main risk factors in beef cattle farming were climatic conditions, production cost, investment capacity and farm management. In the ICLS there were changes such as soybean yield (Glycine max) and lack of knowledge of the activity. However, of the total risks considered most important, half of them were present in both activities. In the second stage, three production systems were established, cycle complete beef cattle (SBC), cycle compete beef cattle associated with leasing of a soybean area (SLS) and cycle compete beef cattle with the cultivation of soybean by the owner (SCS). The system with the highest gross margin was SLS (R$ 223.57/ha) compared to the other two systems (SBC: R$ 138.11/ha; SCS: R$ 149.62/ha). The SCS presented the highest risk among the systems, due to the greater range of gross margins. The average productivity of livestock was similar in the SBC and SLS systems (129.55 and 131.74 kg PV/ha/year). Except for soybean yield that were the main risk at SCS, all others were linked to market risk sources. It is concluded that farmers perceive the SIPA with greater risk than beef cattle systems. In both cases, production risks are the one that presents the highest number of factors with high risk of occurrence and, therefore, should receive special attention. This was consolidated when we concluded that SLS presented a better gross margin and a lower risk than the SBC, and the latter was the one that presented the highest risk. However, the risks that most influenced the gross margin variation were the market, not the production.

<p>The question of the cultivation of cash crops in Africa south of Sahara has long been debated. We have examined the situation of cash crop cultivation for the peasant of northern Mozambique. What factors are needed for a peasant to be able to choose to cultivate cash crops and what are the effects on the peasant’s situation when cultivating cash crops? With help from James C. Scott’s theories about food security and the safety first principle see how the possibilities are for the peasant to grow cash crops.</p><p>By using the Lewis two-sector model we have examined the possibilities for a peasant of northern Mozambique abilities to make the transition from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector. We found this model insufficient to explain the transition of labour in the Mozambican society. The model needs two additional sectors to fully explain the transition in Mozambique. These sectors, cash crop and semi-industrial, are needed because the transition is too far in terms of productivity and technology. An extensive cash crop production is therefore important for the economic development. We have also found that food security is important for the peasants in order to start growing cash crops.</p>

O objetivo do trabalho foi realizar uma análise econômica e de risco em sistemas integrados de produção agropecuária (SIPA) e de bovinos de corte de ciclo completo na Campanha Meridional do Rio Grande do Sul, região sul do Brasil, por um modelo de simulação. O modelo foi desenvolvido e operado em planilhas dinâmicas do Microsoft Excel®. O trabalho foi dividido em duas etapas, na primeira, foi realizada uma identificação e análise dos riscos existentes na produção de bovinos de corte e SIPA. Na segunda, foi realizada uma análise econômica e uma avaliação dos riscos de três sistemas de produção. Como resultado da primeira etapa, os principais fatores de risco na bovinocultura foram, condições climáticas, custo de produção, capacidade de investimento e gestão da propriedade. Na SIPA foram identificados novos ricos, como a produtividade da soja (Glycine max) e desconhecimento da atividade. No entanto, do total dos riscos considerados mais importantes, metade deles estão presentes nas duas atividades. Na segunda etapa, foram estabelecidos três sistemas de produção, bovinocultura de corte de ciclo completo (SBC), bovinocultura de corte de ciclo completo associado com leasing de uma área para soja (SLS) e bovinocultura de corte de ciclo completo com o cultivo de soja pelo próprio pecuarista (SCS). O sistema que apresentou maior margem bruta foi o SLS (R$ 223,57/ha) comparado aos outros dois sistemas (SBC: R$ 138,11/ha; SCS: R$ 149,62/ha). O SCS apresentou o maior risco entre os sistemas, devido a maior amplitude de resultados na margem bruta. A produtividade média da pecuária foi similar nos sistemas SBC e SLS (129,55 e 131,74 kg PV/ha/ano). Com exceção da produtividade da soja que foi o principal risco no SBS, todos os outros estiveram ligados as fontes de risco de mercado. Conclui-se que os produtores rurais percebem o SIPA com maior risco do que a bovinocultura. Em ambos os casos, o risco de produção é o que apresenta o maior número de fatores com alto risco de ocorrência e, portanto, deve receber especial atenção pelos produtores rurais. O que foi consolidado quando se concluiu que o melhor sistema foi o SLS por apresentar melhor margem bruta e menor risco que o SCS, e este último foi o que apresentou o maior risco, no entanto, os riscos que mais influenciaram a variação da margem bruta foram os de mercado e não os de produção. / The aim of this study was compare the economic and risk analysis on an integrated crop-livestock (ICLS) and a cycle complete beef cattle systems in the Campanha Meridional of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazilian Southern Region, through a simulation model. The simulation model was developed and operated through Microsoft Excel® dynamic worksheets. The research was divided in two stages, in the first, an identification and analysis of the existing risks in the production of beef cattle and ICLS was carried out. In the second, an economic and risk analysis of the three production systems. Because of the first stage, the main risk factors in beef cattle farming were climatic conditions, production cost, investment capacity and farm management. In the ICLS there were changes such as soybean yield (Glycine max) and lack of knowledge of the activity. However, of the total risks considered most important, half of them were present in both activities. In the second stage, three production systems were established, cycle complete beef cattle (SBC), cycle compete beef cattle associated with leasing of a soybean area (SLS) and cycle compete beef cattle with the cultivation of soybean by the owner (SCS). The system with the highest gross margin was SLS (R$ 223.57/ha) compared to the other two systems (SBC: R$ 138.11/ha; SCS: R$ 149.62/ha). The SCS presented the highest risk among the systems, due to the greater range of gross margins. The average productivity of livestock was similar in the SBC and SLS systems (129.55 and 131.74 kg PV/ha/year). Except for soybean yield that were the main risk at SCS, all others were linked to market risk sources. It is concluded that farmers perceive the SIPA with greater risk than beef cattle systems. In both cases, production risks are the one that presents the highest number of factors with high risk of occurrence and, therefore, should receive special attention. This was consolidated when we concluded that SLS presented a better gross margin and a lower risk than the SBC, and the latter was the one that presented the highest risk. However, the risks that most influenced the gross margin variation were the market, not the production.

O objetivo do trabalho foi realizar uma análise econômica e de risco em sistemas integrados de produção agropecuária (SIPA) e de bovinos de corte de ciclo completo na Campanha Meridional do Rio Grande do Sul, região sul do Brasil, por um modelo de simulação. O modelo foi desenvolvido e operado em planilhas dinâmicas do Microsoft Excel®. O trabalho foi dividido em duas etapas, na primeira, foi realizada uma identificação e análise dos riscos existentes na produção de bovinos de corte e SIPA. Na segunda, foi realizada uma análise econômica e uma avaliação dos riscos de três sistemas de produção. Como resultado da primeira etapa, os principais fatores de risco na bovinocultura foram, condições climáticas, custo de produção, capacidade de investimento e gestão da propriedade. Na SIPA foram identificados novos ricos, como a produtividade da soja (Glycine max) e desconhecimento da atividade. No entanto, do total dos riscos considerados mais importantes, metade deles estão presentes nas duas atividades. Na segunda etapa, foram estabelecidos três sistemas de produção, bovinocultura de corte de ciclo completo (SBC), bovinocultura de corte de ciclo completo associado com leasing de uma área para soja (SLS) e bovinocultura de corte de ciclo completo com o cultivo de soja pelo próprio pecuarista (SCS). O sistema que apresentou maior margem bruta foi o SLS (R$ 223,57/ha) comparado aos outros dois sistemas (SBC: R$ 138,11/ha; SCS: R$ 149,62/ha). O SCS apresentou o maior risco entre os sistemas, devido a maior amplitude de resultados na margem bruta. A produtividade média da pecuária foi similar nos sistemas SBC e SLS (129,55 e 131,74 kg PV/ha/ano). Com exceção da produtividade da soja que foi o principal risco no SBS, todos os outros estiveram ligados as fontes de risco de mercado. Conclui-se que os produtores rurais percebem o SIPA com maior risco do que a bovinocultura. Em ambos os casos, o risco de produção é o que apresenta o maior número de fatores com alto risco de ocorrência e, portanto, deve receber especial atenção pelos produtores rurais. O que foi consolidado quando se concluiu que o melhor sistema foi o SLS por apresentar melhor margem bruta e menor risco que o SCS, e este último foi o que apresentou o maior risco, no entanto, os riscos que mais influenciaram a variação da margem bruta foram os de mercado e não os de produção. / The aim of this study was compare the economic and risk analysis on an integrated crop-livestock (ICLS) and a cycle complete beef cattle systems in the Campanha Meridional of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazilian Southern Region, through a simulation model. The simulation model was developed and operated through Microsoft Excel® dynamic worksheets. The research was divided in two stages, in the first, an identification and analysis of the existing risks in the production of beef cattle and ICLS was carried out. In the second, an economic and risk analysis of the three production systems. Because of the first stage, the main risk factors in beef cattle farming were climatic conditions, production cost, investment capacity and farm management. In the ICLS there were changes such as soybean yield (Glycine max) and lack of knowledge of the activity. However, of the total risks considered most important, half of them were present in both activities. In the second stage, three production systems were established, cycle complete beef cattle (SBC), cycle compete beef cattle associated with leasing of a soybean area (SLS) and cycle compete beef cattle with the cultivation of soybean by the owner (SCS). The system with the highest gross margin was SLS (R$ 223.57/ha) compared to the other two systems (SBC: R$ 138.11/ha; SCS: R$ 149.62/ha). The SCS presented the highest risk among the systems, due to the greater range of gross margins. The average productivity of livestock was similar in the SBC and SLS systems (129.55 and 131.74 kg PV/ha/year). Except for soybean yield that were the main risk at SCS, all others were linked to market risk sources. It is concluded that farmers perceive the SIPA with greater risk than beef cattle systems. In both cases, production risks are the one that presents the highest number of factors with high risk of occurrence and, therefore, should receive special attention. This was consolidated when we concluded that SLS presented a better gross margin and a lower risk than the SBC, and the latter was the one that presented the highest risk. However, the risks that most influenced the gross margin variation were the market, not the production.