This thesis focuses on the two main works that related in assessing the implications of (i) fiscal expansion (or contraction) and (ii) implementing a carbon tax on carbon-based fuels as well as the feed-in tariffs (subsidies to clean energy production) on Indonesia’s economy, within the context of static computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. In the first study, we investigate the impacts of increasing the public consumptions on Indonesia’s main macroeconomic indicators and to their consequences by examining how different institutions and sectors in the economy are affected. Three scenarios are carried out under different financing options to budgeting neutral the additional public spending. The results suggest that the increase of government expenditure on goods under the adjusted government saving generates the highest improvement on Indonesia’s GDP but results in a rise of budget deficit. In contrast, under the budget-neutral scheme of either reducing the subsidy rates across activities or increasing the output tax rates would result in less improvement to the Indonesia’s GDP. This is because a subsidy cut (or higher output tax) immediately escalates the production costs and, thus, increases the prices of final goods purchased by the households. These changes result in a fall of their real consumption that eventually leads to a drop in aggregate demand. However, compared to the scenario of subsidy cut, a higher output tax has the most adverse effects on national income. The industry’s production costs are more pressurized by a higher output tax. which in turn, creates deindustrialization, lower employment, and thus reduces the national income and output. In the second study, we investigate the two key frameworks to reduce Indonesia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: (i) implementing a carbon tax on fossil fuels; and (ii) promoting clean (renewable) energy production through the feed-in tariff (subsidy) scheme. In the carbon tax implementation, we assume that the government levies a tax of Rp. 100,000/ton CO2e with three possible revenue-recycling scenarios. In a first scenario, we allow the carbon tax to be recycled through adjustment of the labour (income) tax rate. In a second scenario, we allow the government to increase their spending on goods proportionally to compensate the revenue raised from a carbon tax. And finally, in the third scenario, we assume that the additional revenue from carbon tax is kept to run a budget surplus (government saving adjusts). Whilst, in the feed-in tariff (FIT) scenario, we assume that the government sets a 13.14% subsidy rate to renewable generations (hydro and geothermal generation) where the support payments are distributed equally among electricity consumers through a higher electricity tax rate. Overall, the results suggested that the carbon tax, in the short run, reduces the national emissions but raises costs to the economy, resulting a fall in GDP. In terms of income distribution, the carbon tax tends to be progressive in both (first and second) scenarios of revenue-recycling. However, when there is no compensating (recycling) mechanism (third scenario), the carbon tax tends to be regressive - the poorer households carry a higher share of the carbon tax burden. On the other hand, in case of the FIT scheme (15% subsidy to renewable generation), the impacts are negligible on national income and emissions. This is because the initial renewable shares in the electricity mix are small (a 11% share from hydro generation and a 5% share from geothermal generation); and these technology outputs are only utilized in the electricity industry. Therefore, we argue that the current Indonesia’s FIT regulation – about 13.14% subsidy rate for renewable generation technologies – is ineffective to reduce the national emissions.

Chez les rongeurs, les interneurones (INs) corticaux sont issus de l’éminence ganglionnaire (EG) médiale (MGE) et caudale (CGE), expriment une combinaison de facteurs définis et migrent tangentiellement puis radialement pour atteindre leur position laminaire définitive. La diversité et la spécification des sous-types d’INs provenant de la MGE ont suscité de nombreuses études, en revanche les mécanismes moléculaires contrôlant la migration et la spécification des INs issus de la CGE demeurent toujours obscurs. Dans cette étude, les voies de migration de ces INs ont été examinées grâce à une lignée de souris rapportrices des interneurones issus de la CGE avant d’analyser le rôle de deux facteurs de transcription, COUP-TFI et COUP-TFII, hautement exprimés dans la CGE. Deux voies de migration non précédemment caractérisées ont alors été identifiées : une voie dorsale (CLMS) où les INs migrent vers l’EG latérale (LGE) et une voie ventrale (CMMS) où les INs migrent vers la MGE. Le CLMS et le CMMS ont donc été analysés, ainsi que la voie de migration caudale (CMS), à différents stades de développement et l’expression spécifique de certains gènes a pu être identifiée. En inactivant conditionnellement COUP-TFI et/ou COUP-TFII dans les INs, les voies de migration sont altérées ainsi que l’expression des marqueurs moléculaires. Comme probable conséquence, les souris mutantes adultes montrent une distribution altérée des sous-populations d’INs en particulier de celles issues de la CGE. Mon étude a donc permis d’identifier et de caractériser deux nouvelles voies de migration pour les INs provenant de la CGE et a montré que COUP-TFs contribuent à leur modulation. / In rodents, cortical interneurons (INs) originate from the medial (MGE) and caudal ganglionic eminence (CGE) according to precise temporal schedules, express a defined combination of factors, and reach their final laminar position through tangential and radial cell migration. The diversity and fate-specification of MGE-derived interneuron subtypes are well characterized however the molecular mechanisms controlling the migration and specification of CGE-derived INs are still vague. In this study, I have first investigated the migratory paths of cortical INs using a reporter line specific to the CGE, and then I have assessed the involvement of COUP-TFI and COUP-TFII, which are highly expressed in the embryonic CGE during development, in these paths. My data unravelled two major previously non-characterized migratory streams from the subpallium to the pallium: a dorsal stream (CLMS) in which CGE-derived cells migrate to the lateral GE (LGE), and a ventral one (CMMS) in which CGE-derived cells migrate to the MGE. I have characterized both streams and the already well-described caudal stream (CMS) during different stages of development and identified a series of genes expressed in the migrating cells. By inactivating COUP-TFI and/or COUP-TFII in the developing INs, these streams together with their molecular marker expression are perturbed. As a consequence, adult mutant mice have an altered distribution of interneuron subpopulations, particularly the ones derived from the CGE. Taken together, my study identified and characterized two novel CGE-derived interneuron migratory routes to the cortex and showed that COUP-TFs contribute in modulating these paths.

The food vs. fuel debate has heated up since the 2008 global food crisis when major crop prices dramatically increased. Heavily subsidized biofuel production was blamed for diverting food crops from food production and diverting resources from food and feed production, triggering a food crisis globally and leading to increases in the world food insecure population. Few studies have quantified the effects of biofuel policies on world food prices and world food insecurity. This study added the Brazil and China's biofuel sectors to an existing global trade CGE model, and applies the measurement of food insecurity as developed by FAO. Alternative scenarios were food insecurity. Results are examined with focus on (1) effects on domestic biofuel productions, (2) change in food commodity productions and trade, (3) change in land use and land rents, and (4) change in regional undernourished populations. Results indicated that biofuel expansion is not cost competitive to traditional fossil fuel. Without any policy incentives, huge expansion of biofuel production is not likely under current technology. The conventional biofuel mandates in U.S., Brazil and China lead to increases in world food insecurity, while the advanced biofuel mandate in U.S. has the opposite effect. Subsidies to biofuels production help to lessen the increase in world food insecurity that is caused by increases in conventional biofuel production. Additionally, the effects from U.S. biofuel policies are smaller but more widespread than the effects from Brazil or China's biofuel policies. Overall, the long term effects of biofuel production expansion on world food insecurity are much smaller than expected.

This study investigates general equilibrium effects of an alternative social security policy in Indonesia. The study aims to analyse some financial issues of the proposed policy using a dynamic CGE model. The focus is investigating possible tax scenarios to finance the proposed policy and their impacts on the economy. The simulation results suggest that the consumption tax base should be used as the main financing method. This is because based on various simulations the selected consumption taxes have less negative impacts on the economy than the selected income taxes. Those selected consumption taxes more equitably distribute tax burden and improve income inequality in the long run. However, the increasing price because of this policy selection should also be considered seriously. The simulations also include the study of the demographic transition in Indonesia. A view that is common in the literature is that the rapid increase of labor force in the next three decades could raise the proportion of skilled workers in the labor force and enhance the economic growth. Instead the simulations suggest contrary results. When we repeat the tax/transfer simulations with the demographic transition, real GDP per capita and consumption per capita fall further below the baseline projections. Further simulations are conducted to investigate possible policy actions to mitigate the effects of this demographic transition. This study also covers possible allocation decision trade-offs surrounding the proposed social security policy. That is, the trade-offs between universal social pension insurance and universal social health insurance, and between universal tax-financed social security programs and other important development programs. Given the limitation of our study, that all stakeholders have agreed to develop a universal tax-financed social security program, we conclude that universal tax-financed social health insurance should be given more priority than universal tax-financed social pension insurance. The study concludes with some remarks regarding important areas for future research.

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This study investigates general equilibrium effects of an alternative social security policy in Indonesia. The study aims to analyse some financial issues of the proposed policy using a dynamic CGE model. The focus is investigating possible tax scenarios to finance the proposed policy and their impacts on the economy. The simulation results suggest that the consumption tax base should be used as the main financing method. This is because based on various simulations the selected consumption taxes have less negative impacts on the economy than the selected income taxes. Those selected consumption taxes more equitably distribute tax burden and improve income inequality in the long run. However, the increasing price because of this policy selection should also be considered seriously. The simulations also include the study of the demographic transition in Indonesia. A view that is common in the literature is that the rapid increase of labor force in the next three decades could raise the proportion of skilled workers in the labor force and enhance the economic growth. Instead the simulations suggest contrary results. When we repeat the tax/transfer simulations with the demographic transition, real GDP per capita and consumption per capita fall further below the baseline projections. Further simulations are conducted to investigate possible policy actions to mitigate the effects of this demographic transition. This study also covers possible allocation decision trade-offs surrounding the proposed social security policy. That is, the trade-offs between universal social pension insurance and universal social health insurance, and between universal tax-financed social security programs and other important development programs. Given the limitation of our study, that all stakeholders have agreed to develop a universal tax-financed social security program, we conclude that universal tax-financed social health insurance should be given more priority than universal tax-financed social pension insurance. The study concludes with some remarks regarding important areas for future research.

Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en Finanzas / El siguiente informe tiene como objetivo obtener una valorización económica tanto del grupo como una valorización por acción de la Compañía General de Electricidad al 30 de junio del 2015 a través del método de flujo de caja libre. Con el objetivo de efectuar la estimación del valor del grupo se analizó́ e investigó respecto a la descripción de la empresa, la industria en la cual opera y al financiamiento que presenta. Por otra parte, se determinó la estructura de capital y el costo patrimonial, además de considerar información relacionada a proyecciones de distintos analistas y políticas de inversión de la compañía para los próximos años, lo que permitió́ proyectar los Estados de Resultados desde Junio del 2015 a diciembre 2019. La metodología utilizada para la valoración económica del precio de la acción consistió en aplicar Flujos de Caja Descontados para los periodos Junio del año 2015 a diciembre del año 2019, a una tasa de costo de capital (WACC) estimada de 4,25%, proyectándose, además, un valor terminal de la empresa a partir del 2019, a través del método de “Valor de Perpetuidad sin Crecimiento”, que corresponde al valor de la compañía a partir del año siguiente de proyección (2020) sin considerar las oportunidades de crecimiento de la compañía1. Finalmente se llegó a un precio objetivo de la acción de $5.986, este precio de la acción obtenido se encuentra por sobre del precio observado por el mercado que es de $3.300, donde a lo largo del desarrollo de este proyecto y en base a los supuestos que serán descritos, se explicara en detalle cómo se obtuvo este precio y los supuestos del por qué el precio calculado es mayor al precio de mercado. La Compañía General de Electricidad es un grupo de aproximadamente 56 empresas que se dedican a la transmisión y distribución de electricidad (Siendo la segunda empresa más importante de electricidad a nivel nacional medida por número de clientes) además de la distribución de gas licuado y gas natural. Esta empresa es controlada actualmente por el grupo español la Caixa a través de Fenosa Chile. La compañía presenta operaciones en Argentina, Chile y Colombia, donde el grueso de sus ingresos corresponde por sus operaciones en Chile, principalmente del sector eléctrico e inversiones en el mercado del gas desde Arica a Punto Williams, siendo las empresas más representativas de este grupo METROGAS, GASCO, CONAFE, CGE Distribución, entre otras.

Die Europäische Währungsunion (EWU) umfasst heute 16 Staaten mit insgesamt 321 Millionen Einwohnern, sie ist mit einem Bruttoinlandsprodukt von 22,9 Billionen Euro einer der größten Wirtschaftsräume der Erde. In den nächsten Jahren wird die EWU durch die Aufnahme der 2004 und 2007 beigetretenen neuen EU-Länder weiter wachsen. Da der Beitritt von der Erfüllung der Kriterien von Maastricht abhängt, erfolgt die Erweiterung im Gegensatz zur 5. Erweiterungsrunde der EU nicht als Block, sondern sequentiell. Nach den Beitritten von Slowenien am 1.1.2007 und der Slowakei zum 1.1.2009 steht der Beitritt eines ersten großen Landes in den nächsten Jahren bevor. Daher stößt die Frage der Effekte eines solchen Beitritts seit geraumer Zeit auf breites Interesse in der ökonomischen Literatur. Das Forschungsziel der Dissertation ist es, die theoretischen Wirkungsmechanismen eines Beitritts der neuen Mitgliedsländer zur Europäischen Währungsunion abzubilden. Hierzu werden mögliche stabilitätspolitische Konsequenzen sowie die Auswirkungen eines Beitritts auf die geografische Wirtschaftsstruktur und das Wachstum dieser Länder in theoretischen Modellen abgeleitet. Die direkten Effekte des Beitritts werden in einem angewandt-theoretischen Modell zudem quantifiziert. Insgesamt wird der Beitritt aus drei verschiedenen Perspektiven analysiert: Erstens werden die Konsequenzen der Währungsunion für die Stabilitätspolitik der neuen Mitgliedsländer im Rahmen eines neukeynesianischen Modells betrachtet. Zweitens werden die mit der Transaktionskostensenkung verbundenen Gewinne in einem angewandten Gleichgewichtsmodell quantifiziert. Drittens werden die wachstumstheoretischen Wirkungen der Finanzmarktintegration in einem dynamischen Gleichgewichtsmodell untersucht. Da die drei Aspekte der makroökonomischen Stabilität, der Transaktionskostensenkung und der dynamischen Wirkungen der Finanzmarktintegration weitgehend unabhängig voneinander auftreten, ist die Verwendung verschiedener Modelle mit geringen Kosten verbunden. In der Gesamtbeurteilung des EWU-Beitritts der neuen EU-Länder kommt diese Arbeit zu einer anderen Einschätzung als bisherige Studien. Die in Teil eins ermittelten stabilitätspolitischen Konsequenzen sind entweder neutral oder implizieren bei Beitritt zur Währungsunion eine größere Stabilität. Die in Teil zwei und drei ermittelten statischen und dynamischen Gewinne eines Beitritts sind zudem erheblich, so dass ein schneller Beitritt zur Währungsunion für die neuen EU-Mitgliedsländer vorteilhaft ist. Unter Berücksichtigung der Ziele der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion (EWWU) müssen hierzu jedoch zwei Bedingungen erfüllt sein. Einerseits sind hinreichend entwickelte Finanzmärkte notwendig, um das Ziel einer Konvergenz der neuen und alten EU-Mitgliedsländer zu erreichen. Andererseits wird der Gesamtraum von einer stärkeren Finanzmarktintegration und einer Senkung der Transaktionskosten profitieren, jedoch durch die Übertragung von Schocks der neuen Mitgliedsländer instabiler. Daher kann der Beitritt der neuen Mitgliedsländer zur EWU für den Gesamtraum negativ sein. Diese Kosten sind nur dann zu rechtfertigen, falls über die schnellere Entwicklung der neuen Mitgliedsstaaten eine höhere Stabilität des Währungsraumes erzielt wird. Das neukeynesianische Wachstumsmodell gibt Hinweise, dass eine solche Entwicklung eintreten könnte. / The European Monetary Union consists of 16 member states, is inhabited by 321 million people and has a joint GDP of 22.9 trillion Euros. It is one of the largest economic areas in the world. In the next years the Eurozone will growth further, eight remaining new EU member states will join after their fulfillment of the Maastricht criteria. This makes accession rather sequential, Slovenia joined in 2007, Slovakia in 2009 and Estonia is about to join the Eurozone in 2010. However, these rules open the opportunity for a new EU-member state to postpone membership of EMU in violating the Maastricht criteria like Sweden. The contribution of my Ph.D. thesis is to derive channels of the impact of an EMU accession on the macro-economy. To this aim, I analyze the effects of accession on stability, growth and the geographical structure within theoretical models. The static effects of accession are quantified within a computable equilibrium model. In the conclusions I answer the question whether there are economic reasons for a new member state to avoid EMU membership. The thesis is organized in three parts reflecting three perspectives of accession. Within the first main chapter, the effects of accession on stability are analyzed within a dynamic general equilibrium framework (DSGE). After a short discussion of the effects of monetary arrangements on the stability of an economy, I analyze the well-known arguments of the theory of optimum currency areas. Thereafter the model is used to analyze the transmission of shocks within the monetary union. The second main chapter of the thesis is related to static effects of accession. I show that in five new member states gains from accession outpace costs. Nevertheless, the gain from accession varies among accession countries and economic activities. Overall, small open economies tend to benefit to a greater extent than medium-size, more closed economies. In the third main chapter of the thesis a multiregional growth model is developed. In this model further integration leads to more efficient financial markets which foster growth. Nevertheless, like in all new economic geography (NEG) models, there could be the outcome of a catastrophic agglomeration. Capital could move from poor accession countries to rich western Eurozone countries. To prevent such a catastrophic agglomeration, financial markets should show a minimum degree of development. The conclusion of the thesis supports the accession of new member states to the Eurozone. I argue that the consequences of EMU accession will be either neutral or positive for the accession countries. Since these countries tend to be more instable, they could gain from an equalization of shocks within the Eurozone. The static effects outpace the costs of accession. Within the last years we saw huge progress in the integration of new EU-member states into the international financial system. A catastrophic agglomeration should therefore be unlikely. However, market capitalization remains low and bank lending is less profitable than in western EU-countries so that a risk remains which could justify a postponement of accession.

After twenty years of democracy, the most pressing problem facing South Africa is the absence of sustainable economic growth and job creation. Since 1994, major economic reforms and adjustments have been made, which were seen as a requirement for achieving economic growth and development. However, despite these efforts, unemployment in South Africa remains a challenging problem. The main objectives of the study are, firstly, to examine South Africa’s economic policy initiatives implemented since 1994. Secondly, to determine whether the issue of unemployment has improved under a review of the economic policies that have been implemented since 1994. Finally, this is achieved by examining the changes in employment and, more specifically, the changes in the cost-neutral change in the capital/labour (K/L) ratio between 1995 and 2013 by means of a historical Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling approach. The literature study focuses on employment, growth and human capital theories to reflect on the present state of knowledge and to contribute to evidence-based policy debates. It also provides an overview of South Africa’s economic policy, programmes and strategy decisions and of the country’s economic stance since the transition to democracy in 1994, with a specific focus on the labour market. Historical CGE modelling, applied using the PEKGEM – a dynamic CGE model of the South African economy, was chosen to examine the relationship between growth and structural changes under the different economic and development policies in South Africa between 1995 and 2013. The primary aim was to determine how the dynamics and structure of South African employment changed during the period in which these policies were implemented, using the historical CGE modelling approach. The focus was primarily on changes in the capital and labour markets across all sectors over this period. The results indicate an increase in capital relative to labour (K/L) over the period 1995 to 2013, despite the increase seen in the rental price of capital relative to wages (PK/PL). To better understand the structural shift, the theoretical specification of the capital/labour preference within PEKGEM was considered. The results suggests that at any given ratio of real wages relative to the rental price of capital, industries would choose a K/L ratio 8.1 per cent higher in 2013 than it would have in 1995. Considering the fact that South Africa has a comparative advantage in unskilled labour-intensive goods, especially given the country’s abundance of labour and high levels of unemployment, the shortcomings of South Africa’s economic policies in addressing the pressing issue of unemployment is emphasised. / MCom (Economics), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

After twenty years of democracy, the most pressing problem facing South Africa is the absence of sustainable economic growth and job creation. Since 1994, major economic reforms and adjustments have been made, which were seen as a requirement for achieving economic growth and development. However, despite these efforts, unemployment in South Africa remains a challenging problem. The main objectives of the study are, firstly, to examine South Africa’s economic policy initiatives implemented since 1994. Secondly, to determine whether the issue of unemployment has improved under a review of the economic policies that have been implemented since 1994. Finally, this is achieved by examining the changes in employment and, more specifically, the changes in the cost-neutral change in the capital/labour (K/L) ratio between 1995 and 2013 by means of a historical Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling approach. The literature study focuses on employment, growth and human capital theories to reflect on the present state of knowledge and to contribute to evidence-based policy debates. It also provides an overview of South Africa’s economic policy, programmes and strategy decisions and of the country’s economic stance since the transition to democracy in 1994, with a specific focus on the labour market. Historical CGE modelling, applied using the PEKGEM – a dynamic CGE model of the South African economy, was chosen to examine the relationship between growth and structural changes under the different economic and development policies in South Africa between 1995 and 2013. The primary aim was to determine how the dynamics and structure of South African employment changed during the period in which these policies were implemented, using the historical CGE modelling approach. The focus was primarily on changes in the capital and labour markets across all sectors over this period. The results indicate an increase in capital relative to labour (K/L) over the period 1995 to 2013, despite the increase seen in the rental price of capital relative to wages (PK/PL). To better understand the structural shift, the theoretical specification of the capital/labour preference within PEKGEM was considered. The results suggests that at any given ratio of real wages relative to the rental price of capital, industries would choose a K/L ratio 8.1 per cent higher in 2013 than it would have in 1995. Considering the fact that South Africa has a comparative advantage in unskilled labour-intensive goods, especially given the country’s abundance of labour and high levels of unemployment, the shortcomings of South Africa’s economic policies in addressing the pressing issue of unemployment is emphasised. / MCom (Economics), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015