In 2005 the highest global surface temperature ever was recorded. A virtual consensus exists today among scientists that global warming is underway and that human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a significant cause. Possible mitigation of climate change through reduction of net GHG emissions has become a worldwide concern. Under the United Nation’s Framework convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol was formed in 1997 and required ratifying countries to co-operate in stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations. The protocol took effect on February 16, 2005. The mitigation cost for reducing GHG emissions for the US economy has been argued to be high particularly through the energy sector. Agriculture and Forestry (AF) can provide some low cost strategies to help with this mitigation principally through carbon sequestration but must be competitive with mitigation costs in the rest of the economy. A general equilibrium approach is used herein to evaluate the role of AF mitigation in an economy wide setting. The results show that the AF sectors have significant mitigation potential. Higher carbon prices lead to more sequestration, less emissions, reduced consumer and total welfare, improved environmental indicators and increased producer welfare. AF mitigation increases as the carbon price increase over time. In the earlier periods, while the carbon price is low, AF emissions and sink are quite small compared to the energy sector. As carbon prices increase over time, the AF sectors mitigate about 25% of the net emissions. This verifies McCarl et al's (2001) argument that the AF sectors “may be very important in a world that requires time and technological investment to develop low-cost greenhouse gas emission offsets.” AF GHG emission mitigation is sensitive to saturation of sequestration sinks. This research finds that ignoring saturation characteristics leads to a severe overestimate of mitigation potential with estimates being inflated by as much as a factor of 6.

Despite abundant studies of the application of pension systems in developed countries, little work has been done on how to apply a sustainable pension system in developing countries. The set-up of pension systems in developed countries and developing countries are expected to be different because in developing countries, labor is concentrated in the informal production sectors, while labor in developed countries is concentrated in the formal production sectors. Informal production sectors are sectors where the government, either central or local government, has little access to implement fiscal policies (taxes and subsidies) on firms and labor. This research develops a comprehensive system on how to set-up pension policies generally in developing countries and specifically in Indonesia. The basic set-up of the pension system suggested in this dissertation is as follows: a short run consumption tax policy to finance a defined benefit plan to support minimum physical needs of the older population, a medium run labor income tax policy to finance individuals' defined contribution fully funded savings plan, and a long run skilled labor creation through university education so that individuals are able to self-finance their own pension savings through the fully funded savings plan. The defined benefit plan is important because it can serve as a societal redistribution tool, while the defined contribution plan serves as a household savings tool. In addition, the skilled labor creation serves as a supporting tool so that the pension program is sustained in the long run. A theoretical model is developed from Auerbach and Kotlikoff overlapping generation (OLG) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and specified for the Indonesian economy by introducing heterogeneity in households, where skilled and unskilled labor exist. In writing the model in terms of computer language, we apply an approach named mathematical programming system for general equilibrium analysis (MPSGE), developed by Thomas Rutherford. Some parameters used in the model are estimated by using econometric methods. The OLG-CGE model is applied in order to analyze the impact of consumption taxes and pension taxes on labor supply and also to calculate the equivalent variation of the distribution of consumption taxes burden across generations. Meanwhile, the impact of skilled labor creation on economic growth is calculated by applying linear algebra. The main macroeconomy data is taken from the Indonesian social accounting matrix (SAM) year 2000. Meanwhile, labor data are taken from the Indonesian labor conditions 1998-2003. The findings in this dissertation are as follows: for the equivalent variations, the consumption taxes for USD 1, USD 2, and USD 3 cash transfers per day person gave more benefit to the skilled labor than to the unskilled ones. In the meantime, the consumption taxes for USD 1 cash transfer gave incentives to the highest amount of labor, both skilled and unskilled labor, to work in the formal sector. The amount of labor after the consumption taxes for USD 1 cash transfer is higher than the initial condition. Increasing the consumption taxes for the USD 2 cash transfer only decreased the amount of labor work in the formal sector, with the amount of skilled labor decreased more than the unskilled labor. In addition, increasing the consumption taxes for the USD 3 cash transfer would also decrease the amount of labor work in the formal sector, with the amount of unskilled labor decreased more than skilled labor. We also find that the elasticity of government education expenditures on skilled labor creation is roughly 0.3. This means that if the Indonesian central government would like to eliminate the informal sector by 25 percent within 20 years, or an average 1.25 percent annually, they should increase the government education expenditures to 8 percent of total annual government budget. Other findings are that the increase of skilled labor would contribute positively to Indonesian economic growth, while the consumption taxes and the fully funded pension taxes would be likely to reduce current economic growth but increase the future one. Finally, these are the theoretical contributions to public finance literature: first, given dual formal and informal labor sectors present in an economy, where the latter is dominant, taxation of expenditures is preferred to taxation of income because the first may induce labor to work in the formal sector; second, given dual formal and informal labor sectors present in an economy, where the latter is dominant, there exists an optimal rate of consumption taxes that provides incentives for the highest amount of labor, skilled and unskilled labor, to work in the formal sector.

In 2005 the highest global surface temperature ever was recorded. A virtual consensus exists today among scientists that global warming is underway and that human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a significant cause. Possible mitigation of climate change through reduction of net GHG emissions has become a worldwide concern. Under the United Nation’s Framework convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol was formed in 1997 and required ratifying countries to co-operate in stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations. The protocol took effect on February 16, 2005. The mitigation cost for reducing GHG emissions for the US economy has been argued to be high particularly through the energy sector. Agriculture and Forestry (AF) can provide some low cost strategies to help with this mitigation principally through carbon sequestration but must be competitive with mitigation costs in the rest of the economy. A general equilibrium approach is used herein to evaluate the role of AF mitigation in an economy wide setting. The results show that the AF sectors have significant mitigation potential. Higher carbon prices lead to more sequestration, less emissions, reduced consumer and total welfare, improved environmental indicators and increased producer welfare. AF mitigation increases as the carbon price increase over time. In the earlier periods, while the carbon price is low, AF emissions and sink are quite small compared to the energy sector. As carbon prices increase over time, the AF sectors mitigate about 25% of the net emissions. This verifies McCarl et al's (2001) argument that the AF sectors “may be very important in a world that requires time and technological investment to develop low-cost greenhouse gas emission offsets.” AF GHG emission mitigation is sensitive to saturation of sequestration sinks. This research finds that ignoring saturation characteristics leads to a severe overestimate of mitigation potential with estimates being inflated by as much as a factor of 6.

Water-related issues are gaining importance at both national and global level. Water resources are becoming insufficient in meeting the rising needs. As resources are distributed unevenly throughout the world, supply and demand correspondence is difficult to meet. The analysis of water related issues should be addressed within a comprehensive framework. CGE models offer this possibility. This study aims to construct a CGE model for Turkey which includes water as a factor of production. It relates water issues with another troublesome debate that is important for Turkey: trade liberalization in agriculture. Turkey as a member of WTO and a candidate country for the EU has to consider the effects of a further liberalization in agriculture on its economy. In this study a trade liberalization scenario and a water-policy scenario have been discussed. Additional simulations are conducted in the case of a productivity increase in agriculture. Results show that, trade liberalization in agriculture leads to an increase in GDP and income levels, but had a negative impact on the trade balance in agricultural products. Applying a &ldquo / selective water tax&rdquo / will result in a decrease in production and consumption in water-intensive sectors, as well as in the private income. For the first simulation, productivity increase in agriculture leads to a further increase in both GDP level and incomes, and it compensates the trade distortions resulting from the tariff reduction. In water simulation, private income increases with productivity increase and depletion in production and consumption of agricultural products reversed. Moreover, the net exports in agriculture improve significantly.

En este trabajo, se utiliza un modelo de Equilibrio General Computado (CGE) para analizar el efecto de la apertura comercial sobre el salario de los trabajadores calificados versus el salario de los trabajadores no calificados en la Argentina. El resultado que se obtiene es que en el caso de Argentina, el comercio sólo explica una pequeña porción (alrededor de 3%) del incremento en la desigualdad salarial. Adicionalmente, se presenta una metodología que puede emplearse para realizar ejercicios de descomposición con un modelo de CGE.

Cette thèse propose une évaluation des effets potentiels de l’Accord de partenariat économique (APE) entre l’Union européenne (UE) et l’Afrique de l’Ouest sur l’agriculture et les ménages sénégalais. En effet, après plus de 12 ans de discussions, la Communauté Économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (CEDEAO) dans sa majorité a signé l’APE avec l’UE, le volet commercial de l’Accord de Cotonou. L’APE est ainsi devenu le nouveau cadre de coopération économique et commercial entre l’UE et le Sénégal avec l’établissement à terme d’une zone de de libre-échange réciproque entre l’UE et les pays ACP, cependant asymétrique et mettant ainsi fin au régime des conventions de Lomé, qui était basé sur les préférences commerciales non réciproques. Cette étude est basée sur le modèle d’équilibre général calculable (MEGC) uni-pays développé par Bouët et al (2001). Il s’agit à la base d’un modèle statique avec l’hypothèse de concurrence parfaite et non monétaire qui décrit une petite économie ouverte comme le Sénégal. En effet, le Sénégal est un pays en développement importateur net de produits alimentaires et très dépendant du commerce international notamment pour couvrir ses besoins alimentaires. Ce MEGC a été enrichi par l’introduction de l’approche théorique « Dual-Dual » élaborée par Stifel et Thorbecke (2003) pour tenir compte des spécificités de la plupart des économies africaines comme le Sénégal notamment un secteur informel très développé et la migration rural-urbain d’une part et d’autre part parce que la quasi-totalité des MEGC utilisés pour étudier l’économie sénégalaise n’intègre pas ces aspects structurels. De plus, pour bien prendre en compte l’APE dans nos simulations nous avons rajouté deux étages au niveau des exportations et des importations pour bien distinguer les origines/destinations CEDEAO et UE. Le modèle utilisé est calibré sur une matrice de comptabilité sociale (MCS) pour l’année 2006 construite dans le cadre de cette thèse. Pour appréhender les effets sur les ménages, trois enquêtes ménages ont été utilisées pour identifier 78 ménages représentatifs. Pour les données tarifaires, le nouveau tarif extérieur commun de la CEDEAO (TEC CEDEAO) en vigueur depuis le 1er janvier 2015 a été utilisé. Les résultats ont révélé que l’APE est une réforme commerciale qui n’offre pas des perspectives de gains réels pour le Sénégal car elle implique essentiellement une ouverture de l'économie sénégalaise aux seuls produits européens et n'améliore pas l'accès de l'économie sénégalaise aux économies du reste du monde. Sur le plan des analyses de bien-être, l’APE ne permet pas de réduire la pauvreté et les inégalités / This PHD thesis proposes an assessment of the potential effects of the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union (EU) and West Africa on Senegalese agriculture and households. Indeed, after 12 years of negotiations, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in its majority signed the EPA with the EU, the trade component of the Cotonou Agreement. Thus, the EPA has become the new framework for economic and trade cooperation between the EU and Senegal. The objective to the end is the establishment of a reciprocal free trade area between the EU and ACP countries, however asymmetrical and putting an end to the Lome Agreement, which was based on non-reciprocal trade preferences. This study is based on the Single country computable general equilibrium model (CGE) developed by Bouët et al (2001). It is a static model with the assumption of perfect competition and non-monetary, which describes a small open economy such as Senegal. Indeed, Senegal is a net food-importer developing country and very dependent on international trade specially to cover its food needs. This CGE was enriched by the introduction of the "Dual-Dual" theoretical approach developed by Stifel and Thorbecke (2003) to reflect the specificities of most African economies like Senegal i.e. a large informal sector and migration rural-urban firstly and secondly because almost all the CGE models used to study the Senegalese economy does not incorporate these structural aspects. In addition, to better capture the EPA in our simulations we added two stages in exports and imports modelling to distinguish the origins / destinations ECOWAS and EU. The model is calibrated on a 2006 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) built as part of this thesis. To understand the effects on households, three household surveys were used to identify 78 representative households. For tariff data, the new ECOWAS Common External Tariff (ECOWAS CET) launched on January 1st 2015 was used. The results revealed that the EPA is a trade reform that offers no real earnings prospects for Senegal because it essentially implies openness of the Senegalese economy only to European products and does not improve the access of Senegalese economy to other economies of the World. In terms of welfare analysis, the EPA did not reduce poverty and inequality.

This paper analyzes the effects of the liberalization and/or exclusion of the agricultural sector in the integration processes in which are immersed the Latin American Countries from the comparison of four different ways from liberalization. The central objective consists of determining if it is necessary that this sector receives a special treatment in comparison with the rest of economic sectors, or if the complete liberalization is more/less favorable than the exclusion of the agriculture in the integration processes. We used a static CGE model, multisectorial, multicountry of short and long term that has a predominantly agricultural aggregation. Between the main results we found that although the four types of liberalization generate positive results in the Latin American economies; for Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador-Bolivia, Argentina and Uruguay the multilateral strategy that excludes the agricultural sector generates greater benefits than the net tariff liberalization. Despite if we compare the tariff liberalization versus the total liberalization (one that includes export subsidies elimination and band of prices), all the countries with exception of Peru and Venezuela register greater benefits with the total liberalization. / El presente documento analiza los efectos de la liberalización y/o exclusión del sector agrícola en los procesos de integración en los que se encuentran inmersos los países latinoamericanos a partir de la comparación de cuatro diferentes modos de liberalización. El objetivo central consiste en determinar si es o no necesario que este sector reciba un tratamiento especial en comparación con el resto de sectores económicos, o si es más favorable la liberalización completa o la exclusión del agro en los procesos de integración. Para ello, empleamos como herramienta un modelo EGC estático, multipaís y multisectorial de corto y largo plazo, el cual cuenta con una desagregación predominantemente agrícola. Entre los principales resultados encontramos que si bien los cuatro tipos de liberalización generan resultados positivos en las economías latinoamericanas, para el Perú, Venezuela, Ecuador-Bolivia, Argentina y Uruguay la estrategia multilateral que excluye al sector agrícola genera mayores beneficios que la liberalización netamente arancelaria. No obstante, si se compara la liberalización netamente arancelaria versus la total (que incluye eliminación de los subsidios a la exportación y franja de precios), todos los países, con excepción de Perú y Venezuela, registran mayores beneficios con la liberalización total.

This thesis investigates how different policies and measures designed to reduce CO2 emissions – i.e. carbon tax and energy efficiency policies – in South Africa will affect South African households. The contribution of this study lies with evaluating South African households at a disaggregated income level from low to high-income appreciating the fact that households at different levels are impacted differently by the implementation of policies at national level. In order to evaluate such impacts, the study started with profiling the households’ electricity consumption patterns in South Africa through the years and comparing them with the rest of the world. The next objective was to comprehend – implementing an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric model – the determinants of electricity consumption of the residential sector in the country. Finally, by using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), the study examined various policy scenarios designed to reduce emissions and its effects on different households, particularly the low-income ones that do not have the capital to absorb the impacts. The results showed that low-income households are affected differently than the rest of South African households by the national policies implemented to reduce CO2 emissions and combat climate change. However, given the way the carbon tax and energy efficiency policies are designed, low-income households should be affected minimally. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2020. / National Research Foundation (NRF) / Economics / PhD (Economics) / Unrestricted

This study analyzes the trade war between the United States (US) and China using the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. Five scenarios focused on economic decoupling are ana- lyzed: 1. Mutual tariff levels increased to 25%, 2. Mutual tariff levels increased to 45%, 3. Bilateral export levels decreased by 25%, 4. Bilateral export levels decreased by 45%, and 5. Trade efficiency decreased by 10%. The analysis shows both the US and China's consumer welfare and GDP decreased across all scenarios, with a larger decrease in China. In addition, when exports from China and the United States decrease, there is an increase in exports from the ASEAN region. JEL Classification C68, F13, F11, Keywords Trade war, CGE, General Equilibrium Title Measuring the Welfare Effects of the US-China Trade War Using a Computable General Equi- librium Model Author's e-mail hehaeunk@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail vilem.semerak@fsv.cuni.cz

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(エネルギー科学) / 甲第19087号 / エネ博第311号 / 新制||エネ||64(附属図書館) / 32038 / 京都大学大学院エネルギー科学研究科エネルギー社会・環境科学専攻 / (主査)教授 手塚 哲央, 教授 宇根﨑 博信, 准教授 MCLELLAN Benjamin / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Energy Science / Kyoto University / DFAM