Transportation economists apply different labor supply models when studying anti-congestion policy: (i) endogenous working hours; (ii) endogenous workdays but given daily working hours; (iii) labor supply as a residual. We study whether the outcome of anti-congestion policies that change the relative cost of labor supply margins, and, thus, may affect decisions on working hours and working days, is robust against the model applied. In particular, we focus on welfare implications in the presence of other taxes when there is a congestion externality. We find surprisingly strong differences in quantity and sign. Further, we develop a clear recommendation for future research on issues that include decisions on commuting trips. Researchers shall apply both a model of endogenous working hours that provides an upper limit and a model of endogenous workdays that provide a lower limit of results for welfare changes, optimal policies and two optimal tax components (Pigouvian and Ramsey terms).

Dans cette thèse, je discute deux questions autour de la transition énergétique : comment définir une stratégie face aux nombreuses incertitudes et aux inerties des systèmes, et quels sont impacts sur l’emploi de cette transition ?Pour étudier le choix d’une stratégie, je m’intéresse au cas du secteur électrique français. Les réacteurs nucléaires arrivent au terme de leur durée de vie initiale, mais ils peuvent être rénovés moyennant un investissement estimé à 100 milliards d'euros pour l'ensemble du parc. Combien de centrales faut-il rénover ? En mobilisant un modèle d'optimisation et la méthode de \textit{Robust Decision Making}, je montre qu’au vu des estimations actuelles, les stratégies les plus intéressantes consistent à fermer 7 à 14 réacteurs et à les remplacer par des énergies renouvelables.Sur le volet de l’emploi, je m’intéresse tout d’abord à la notion de contenu en emploi. Je propose une méthodologie nouvelle permettant de décomposer ce contenu, afin de mettre en évidence, pour chaque branche économique, l’importance relative de ses constituants : les taux d’importations, les taxes et subventions, la part du travail dans la valeur ajoutée et le niveau de salaire. J'étudie ensuite l’impact d’une réallocation des investissements vers des secteurs bas-carbone à l'aide de modèles d'équilibre général, dont j'explicite les mécanismes économiques sous-jacents.Mes résultats indiquent qu'encourager les secteurs avec une forte part du travail dans la valeur ajoutée ou de faibles salaires permet de créer de l'emploi, mais ils nuancent les bénéfices à encourager des secteurs peu importateurs. / This thesis deals with two aspects of the transition towards a low-carbon economy: how to define a strategy under the uncertainties and inertia surrounding power systems, and what are the impacts of this transition on employment?To study the choice of a strategy, I focus on the case of the French power system. The 58 nuclear reactors are reaching the end of their initially planned lifetime, but they can be retrofitted for a cost estimated at a \euro 100 billion for the entire fleet. How many reactors should be retrofitted? I study this question using an optimization model of the French power system and the \textit{Robust Decision Making} framework. My results indicate that the most interesting strategies consist in closing 7 to 14 reactors in favor of renewable energies, given current estimates.As to employment impacts, I study the notion of employment content and offer an original methodology to break it down and understand the relative importance of four components: import rates, taxes and subsidies, the share of labour in value added and the level of wage.Then, I study the employment impacts of shifting investment towards low-carbon sectors with general equilibrium models, and highlight their underlying economic mechanisms.My results suggest that encouraging sectors with a high share of labor or low wages might increase employment, but they also challenge the benefits of targeting sectors with a low import rate.

Questa tesi, strutturata in tre documenti autonomi ma logicamente connessi, si propone di analizzare alcuni problemi, idee e prospettive relativi allo sviluppo. In particolare, il primo documento “Sviluppo e paradigmi di sviluppo: un’analisi delle visioni prevalenti” fornisce un quadro comparativo dei principali modelli di sviluppo adottati da diversi paesi (visione, azioni specifiche e processi di attuazione) e ne evidenzia specificità, analogie e differenze. Il secondo documento: “Analisi d’impatto delle politiche de degli shocks dei prezzi internazionali: Modelli CGE per un paese non industrializzato importatore netto di petrolio e dipendente dagli aiuti esterni”, mette in luce come le informazioni utilizzabili nei processi di formulazione delle politiche che si ottengono da un modello CGE dipendano sia dalle assunzioni relative alla struttura del modello che dalla struttura del sistema economico oggetto dell’indagine. In particolare, le variazioni del tasso di cambio reale si ripercuotono sul resto del sistema tanto più, quanto più il paese riceve finanziamenti ed aiuti dall’estero. Il terzo documento “Shocks dei prezzi internazionali in Burkina Faso: valutazione degli impatti socio-economici con modelli CGE” si propone di valutare l’impatto degli shocks dei prezzi internazionali di prodotti alimentari, petrolio, fertilizzanti e cotone, avvenuti nella prima decade degli anni 2000, sul sistema socio-economico del Burkina Faso, esempio di paese non industrializzato importatore netto di petrolio e dipendente dagli aiuti esteri. Da una lettura complessiva dei tre documenti emerge che, per assicurare uno sviluppo globale sostenibile nel lungo periodo, alla luce dei problemi di sviluppo emergenti e dei vincoli globali quali il vincolo energetico, i cambiamenti climatici, le disuguaglianze, i conflitti e le migrazioni è necessario rivedere la maggior parte dei paradigmi di sviluppo adottati finora. / This thesis, structured in three individual but logically interlinked papers aims at addressing select development issues, ideas and perspectives. More specifically, the first paper “Development and development paradigms: a (reasoned) review of prevailing visions” provides a comparative analysis of the prevailing development models adopted by different countries (visions, specific actions and implementation processes) and highlights their analogies, differences and specificities. The second paper “Analyzing policy impacts and international price shocks: Alternative Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models for an aid-dependent less-industrialized country”, highlights how relevant information for policy making obtained by CGE models depend both on the assumptions regarding the structure of the model and on the structure of the socio-economic system under investigation. More specifically, the more the country receives foreign grants and loans, the more the variations of the real exchange rate due to price shocks affect the country’s socio-economic system. The third document “International price shocks in Burkina Faso: assessing development impacts with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach” assesses the impact of the international price shocks of food, oil, fertilizers and cotton, occurred in the first decade of the new millennium, on Burkina Faso, a less-industrialized oil-dependent and foreign aid-dependent country. Reading across the three papers of this work, it emerges that, to achieve globally equitable and sustainable development objectives, in the light of the emerging issues and global constraints such as exhaustible fossil energy, climate changes, inequalities conflicts and migrations, it is necessary revising most of the development paradigms adopted so far.

The transport and urban economics literature applies different labor supply approaches when studying economic or planning instruments. Some studies assume that working hours are endogenous while the number of workdays is given, whereas others model only decisions on workdays. Unfortunately, empirical evidence does hardly exist on account of missing data. Against this background, we provide an assessment of whether general effects of transport policies are robust against the modeling of leisure demand and labor supply. We introduce different labor supply approaches into a spatial general equilibrium model and discuss how they affect the welfare implication of congestion policies. We, then, perform simulations and find that in many cases the choice of labor supply modeling not only affects the magnitude of the policy impact but also its direction. While planning instruments are suggested to be quite robust to different labor supply approaches, the way of modeling labor supply may crucially affect the overall welfare implications of economic instruments such as congestion tolls. Based on these findings it becomes clear which labor supply approach is the most appropriate given specific conditions. Our study also emphasizes the need for better micro labor market data that also feature days of sickness, overtime work used to reduce workdays, the actual number of leave days, part-time work, days with telecommuting etc.

L’objectif de la thèse est d’identifier la pertinence des modèles en équilibre général calculable (MEGC) pour analyser la problématique posée par les Accords de Partenariat Économique (APE) entre l’Union européenne et les pays ACP. Une revue de la littérature est d’abord réalisée, puis un modèle en équilibre général calculable (MEGC) à dynamique intertemporelle est construit pour analyser l’impact de l’APE sur un pays spécifique : le Ghana. À partir du constat portant sur la diversité des résultats de simulations, qui dépendent essentiellement de la structure du modèle et des modes de fermeture choisis par le modélisateur, ce travail cherche à mettre en évidence la largeur du faisceau de résultats possibles et l’impossibilité de mettre en avant les bénéfices potentiels qui peuvent être attendus d’un tel accord en s’appuyant simplement sur des MEGC néoclassiques standards. / This work aims to analyze to what extent the use of an applied general equilibrium model (AGE) allows to correctly assess the potential economic impact of EPAs between ACP countries and the European Union. First, a review of the literature is conducted and then an intertemporal dynamic AGE model is built in order to assess the potential impact of EPA on a specific country: Ghana. From the variety of results resulting from the models simulations and depending on hypothesis made on the model structure and the type of closure chosen by the modeler, our work aims to stress the risk of using standard neoclassical Walrasian models to assess the potential benefits of an EPA on ACP countries economy.

東協自由貿易區(AFTA)即將於2002年成立。本研究應用之模型為美國普渡大學發展之全球貿易(GTAP)模型,此為一多國多部門之一般均衡模型。從可計算一般均衡分析方法(CGE)的模擬分析,說明東協自由貿易區之形成對我國經貿的影響。 本文實證結果顯示，東協自由貿易區之形成對台灣總體經濟的影響十分有限。就國內生產而言，將使台灣的GDP下降0.01%，物價水準下降0.07%。台灣的出口量和進口量將分別小幅下降0.07%和0.21%，貿易順差增加約1千3百萬美元。貿易條件小幅降低0.08%，以Hicks等價變量所衡量的社會福利約減少1億4千8百萬美元。 東協自由貿易區之形成對台灣各產業的影響程度也不大。生產受到不利影響程度最大的是紡織業。出口方面，石油產品的出口增加率最大，飲料菸酒的降幅最可觀。進口方面，所有產業的進口量均下降，降幅最大的為石油產品。台灣各產業出口地區結構方面，出口到東協國家的比重大多呈現下降的情形，但是對區域外國家的出口比重則增加，很多原本出口到東協國家的產業都將移往中國大陸、北美地區、歐盟、和日本。

本研究利用台灣2001年資料以Ramsey與OLG假設分別建立區分四部門別與八部門別之動態可計算一般均衡模型，進行「提高間接稅（消費稅、環境稅）、降低直接稅（資本、勞動所得稅）」之稅制改革模擬分析。結果發現若以單一時點比較靜態方式分析可能迥異於動態長期分析結果；其次以Ramsey分析所欠缺的代際分配影響結果在OLG分析中可以察見，特別是進行以消費稅或環境稅替代資本所得稅模擬時；再者OLG因代際傳遞效果可能較Ramsey假設下反應緩慢，故也可觀察到Ramsey模型面對衝擊後若干變數增減幅度會較OLG模型陡峭。最後特別在環境稅替代所得稅模擬中經由替代稅率變化發現，活在初期世代雖可享受所得稅下降好處但卻也面臨排放稅課徵，因此福利水準增減變化不大，惟屆至排放稅課徵瀕至臨界點需使用原所得稅來平衡稅收時，此為另一波必須為減量政策付出代價的時點與世代。 / Based on a thorough comparison of the basic assumptions and economic underpinning of the Ramsey and Overlapping generation (OLG) model, this study builds both static and dynamic computable general equilibrium tax policy models to analyze the effect of tax reform on Taiwan’s economy. The new tax structure considers mainly a replacement of some parts of direct tax - labor and capital income taxes by indirect tax- consumption tax or environment tax. The benchmark year of the model is 2001, and the economy is divided into four and eight sectors. The modeling framework is implemented on top of MPSGE, which is a special module within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS).Our simulation results show differential outcomes for static and dynamic models. The slower speed of transition inherent in OLG model has caused variables such as welfare, capital stock, and replacement consumption tax rate change less than that in the Ramsey model when the tax reform policy is imposed. And the intergeneration effects of different tax burden between young and old generations can be found in the OLG model but not in the Ramsey model. Finally, we find as the income tax rate coming lower and the environment tax going up when simulation of tax replacement, causing the welfare does not change much at the beginning of shock, and generations especially born in the near future when environment tax does not grow and revenue neutrality needs to be meet are another cost payers of abatement policy.

Luxembourg is one of the most successful financial centers in the world. Initially associated with international syndicated loans, euro-bonds and euro-currency markets, Luxembourg has developed as a center for private banking and is currently the second largest center for the domiciliation of investment funds in the world after the US - with a portfolio equivalent to about sixty times the country’s GDP -, and the first captive reinsurance market in the European Union. As in many other financial centers, the interbank market plays an important role. This partly reflects intra-group operations of foreign banks using their Luxembourg branches and subsidiaries to adjust their liquidity position. More generally, Luxembourg has attracted foreign banks seeking to benefit from its favorable regulatory framework, political stability, language skills of the local workforce and the agglomeration of specialized skills in accounting and legal services.<p><p>The importance of the financial sector in Luxembourg implies that a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with explicit modeling of the financial sector is indispensable in order to properly take into account the interaction between the financial and the real sector in the economy and the interconnectedness between different financial institutional sectors (e.g. commercial banks and investment funds). Explicit modeling of the financial sector also allows for an analysis of how the economy might respond to financial shocks.<p><p>This dissertation contributes to the literature by developing two analytical tools:<p><p>1.\ / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

中國大陸自「改革開放」以來，在經濟體制和結構上有著急遽的轉變，同時，海峽兩岸的經貿互動與依存程度也愈來愈高。因此，能有效分析中國大陸經濟情勢的政策模型，對於台灣與中國大陸的政策制定者與政策研究分析者而言皆十分重要。可計算一般均衡（Computable General Equilibrium，CGE）模型由於在數據需求的較大彈性及模型結構上的特性，成為中國大陸現今重要的經濟政策模型之一，本研究的目的在於考察、分析中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的研發背景、發展歷程、建模過程、主要政策應用方向及研究結果。 　　本研究的內容及流程如后：（1）依「歷史研究」、「調查研究」來歸納、分析中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程，以及中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展歷程；（2）接著依「文獻研究」來分析、分類本研究所蒐集的中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）；（3）接著依「理論研究」來歸納、分析出可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模（Modeling）；（4）以「可計算一般均衡」（CGE）方法，先依據最新的「1995年度中國投入產出表」，編制出兩張：「中國大陸1995年社會會計矩陣」、「中國大陸1995年金融社會會計矩陣」為模型數據基礎，然後應用中國大陸所研發的兩個可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型（「中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型」、「中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型」）的主要結構和方程式，以說明中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的建模過程和政策應用方向及模擬結果。 　　本研究的研究結果如后：（1）中國大陸經濟學研究的發展、實際經濟情況變化和政策制定需要，導致中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型在「改革開放」後的發展可分為「啟蒙研發」和「政策應用」兩個階段；（2）將中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）有系統地分類出「貿易政策問題」、「能源和環境政策問題」、「財政和稅收問題」、「經濟改革和發展策略問題」、「外來衝擊問題」、「貨幣金融問題」、「社會保險問題」等七類實證文獻；（3）應用兩個中國大陸研發的可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型，來說明建模（Modeling）與數據編制的過程，並延續、拓展相關的政策模擬研究，分析了環境政策（「綠色導向能源政策」，Green-Oriented Energy Policy：2000年－2015年）與匯率政策（「管理浮動匯率政策」，Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy：1998年）對中國大陸經濟體的影響。 謝 詞 ii 中文提要 iv 英文提要 vi 中文目次 viii 英文目次 ix 表 次 x 圖 次 xi 1. 緒 論 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究流程與內容 4 2. 文獻探討 5 2.1 中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程 5 2.2 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型的發展 11 2.3 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型實證文獻回顧 20 3. 可計算一般均衡模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模 32 3.1 可計算一般均衡模型的概念與發展 32 3.2 可計算一般均衡模型的一般性基本結構 36 3.3 可計算一般均衡模型的數據基礎與校準 40 3.4 可計算一般均衡模型的計算機求解與建模過程 42 4. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（1）─中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型 45 4.1 模型的基本結構 45 4.2 模型方程式 49 4.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 57 4.4 政策應用-中國大陸宏觀調控下環境政策之一般均衡分析 61 5. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（II）─中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型 69 5.1 模型的基本結構 69 5.2 模型方程式 71 5.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 73 5.4 政策應用-中國大陸匯率政策之一般均衡分析 78 6. 結 論 83 6.1 本研究主要貢獻 83 6.2 研究限制與建議 84 6.3 後續研究建議 85 參考文獻 86 附錄1. 94 附錄2. 103 / Both the system and structure of Chinese economy have been changed rapidly since the launch of "economic reform and opening to the outside" in Mainland China, and the economic interaction and trade interdependence between Taiwan and Mainland China are intenser and closer. Effective policy analysis models for Chinese economy is very important to the policy makers and policy analysis researcher both in Taiwan and Mainland China. The Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model has become one of the most important economic policy analysis model because of its characteristic of higher flexibility on benchmark data and structure. The purpose of this study is to review, investigate and analyze the developmental background, developmental progress, modeling procedure, policy simulations and research results. 　　The brief contents and procedure of this study consist of （1） reviewing on the development of economic research in mainland China and CGE modeling for Chinese economy, （2） reviewing on the literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on Policy Analysis（1978－1998）, （3） reviewing on the development, basic structure, benchmark data and modeling of CGE model, （4） constructing two Chinese Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） tables developed from the most recent 1995 Chinese Input-Output table to be the benchmark data of two CGE models, the "Chinese Economic-Environmental CGE model" and the "Chinese Financial CGE model", which are developed from Chinese government and researchers, and we revise them in this study,（5） applying those two models to show and illustrate the modeling procedure and results of policy simulations of CGE models for Chinese economy. 　　In conclusion and contribution, it is composed of three parts. （1） The development of CGE model in Mainland China can be divided into two ages, "The Beginning"（1978－1991） and "The Take-off"（1992－）, which results from the development of economic research in Mainland China, the rapidly changed economic system and structure of Chinese economy, and government's urgent demands for policy-analysis tools. （2） The literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on policy analysis from 1978 to 1998 can be classified into seven groups－ trade policy, energy and environmental policies, public finance and tax reform policies, economic reform and development strategy, external shocks, monetary and financial policies, and social insurance policy. （3） We apply those two CGE models for Chinese economy to analyze the economic and environmental impacts of environmental policy－ " Green-Oriented Energy Policy"（2000－2015） and the economic impacts of the " Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy"（1998）.

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C)(2) 課題番号:09630040 研究代表者:江崎 光男 研究期間:1997-1999年度