近年來區域經濟整合風潮日漸蓬勃發展，十餘年前在中國大陸倡議下，與東協共組「中國－東協自由貿易區」。成立後該自貿區內擁有19億人口，區域生產總值近6兆美元，貿易總額達4.5兆美元，也是全球人口最多的自由貿易區。在雙邊歷經多年談判，即將正式成立自由貿易區的時點上，印尼卻發聲要求延遲實施「中國－東協自由貿易協定」（CAFTA），便使人感到疑惑與不解。究竟東協各國對於區域經濟整合的態度為何？印尼政府和企業是否做好了產業衝擊的評估報告，並提出因應之道？ 　　印尼國內自2009年中起感受到自貿區成立後將對國內產業帶來巨大衝擊，紛紛透過媒體和國會等管道，要求印尼政府暫緩全面實施零關稅。印尼政府亦評估將有228項產品會受到中國大陸產品的嚴重衝擊，而向東協秘書處遞函要求重新協商。嗣後自身考量重新協商曠日廢時、耗費大量勞力物力又緩不濟急，轉而尋求與中國大陸直接對話，雙邊就貨品關稅調降、貿易不均衡的處理方式及促進兩國產業合作等進行討論，最終獲得七項共識，其中中國大陸承諾當貿易不均衡的情況發生時，出超國將有義務增加對入超國的進口，並且協助對方產品的行銷推廣。印尼政府與中國大陸的直接對話所獲得的共識，普遍得到印尼國內的肯定，讓先前爭議問題暫時平歇。然印尼國內更關注協議的實際運作狀況，能否真正發揮效用，亦有待時間的考驗。 　　綜觀此次爭議，印尼官方和民間過往忽視產業的升級和轉型、未提前做好自貿區的因應準備，導致臨屆成立之日，才急的像熱鍋上的螞蟻。印尼擁有豐富的自然資源及充沛的勞動力，可說是未來經濟發展的耀眼新星，如能把握自貿區成立後的契機，結合中國大陸的技術及資金，雙邊進行優勢產業互補合作，兩國未來的發展將無可限量。2015年TPP及RCEP即將成立，屆時中國大陸、東協都將扮演更重要的角色，印尼如能做好完善的準備，相信將能乘著兩大區域貿易組織的翅膀，飛向更璀璨耀眼的明天。

世界貿易組織成立之後，各國經濟發展隨著交通工具與網際網路的進步，「全球化」與「區域化」成為推動全球經濟發展的動力，區域合作對國際關係的重整產生深遠的影響，同時民族國家更希望透過區域性的整合來增加經濟效率與政治接受度。已成為全球第二大經濟體的中國大陸，其領導人習近平於2013年分別提出了「絲綢之路經濟帶」與「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」的戰略構想，做為其以經濟優勢為基礎，對周邊國家實施區域整合的策略，並成為區域性霸權的雙面刃。 基於地緣政治的因素，為了有效的施行中國大陸以發展成海洋強國為主軸的「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」戰略構想，東南亞國協成為中國大陸企業走出去的首選目標。強調以東南亞國協為中心的「區域全面經濟夥伴協定」為中國大陸所積極推動的區域經濟整合，普遍被認為是中國大陸為了主導全球經濟，制衡美國所支持的「跨太平洋夥伴關係協定」之戰略手段，東協亦成為中美權力較量的重點區域。除了與區域外強權的經貿競逐，東南亞國協十國於政治、經濟、文化、宗教、地理與自然資源因素都存在很大的差異，中國大陸推行經貿整合的過程雖創造了合作的機遇，卻也存在諸多風險。 2010年中國大陸與東協自貿區成立以來，雙邊的服務貿易與貨物貿易協議成效均不斷擴大，中國大陸藉由「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」和中國大陸與東協自貿區「升級版」作為中國大陸與東協當前經濟合作的支撐，並以投資為合作主軸，互聯互通為核心，輔以亞洲基礎建設投資銀行及絲路基金等銀彈策略，同時為中國大陸經濟高速成長產能過剩問題尋求出路，本文透過中國大陸海權戰略、區域經濟整合與東協經貿外交進程，分析其機遇、挑戰及影響。 / After the World Trade Organization(WTO) was formed, the progress of both the transportation and network have been pushing the development of countries’ economy. “Globalization” and “Regionalization” become the power for promoting global economy development. Regional cooperation has deep influence on the reformation of international relations. Meanwhile, nation-states would like to increase economic efficiency and political acceptance through regional integration. In 2013, China, being the world’s second largest economy, its leader, Xi Jinping, raised up strategic concept of “Silk Road Economy Belt” and “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” for its foundation of economic advantages.China is using it as a tactic to perform regional integration of the neighboring countries and to become a regional superpower. Based on the geo-political reason, in order to effectively enforce the strategic concept of “Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road” and to develop China as a maritime power, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has become the top choice for Chinese corporations to walk out. The “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)” centered on the ASEAN nations, which China is actively pushing for, is widely believed to be a strategic move to lead the global economy and to balance “Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” supported by the United States. The ASEAN has become the competing focal point for both China and the U.S. Besides the economic competition with the outside regional superpowers, all the 10 members of the ASEAN countries exist significant differences in politics, economy, culture, religion, geography, and natural resources. Therefore, despite China is creating the opportunity of economic and trading cooperation, there are still many risks. Since the establishment of China and ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA) in 2010, the result of service trade and goods trade agreement has expanded. China uses both “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” and the upgraded version of “China-ASEAN Free Trade Area” to support its economic cooperation with the ASEAN, meanwhile, using investment as the principle for cooperation, and mutual communication as the core, and money bullet from Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Silk road fund as the assisting strategy in order to seek way out for China’s overcapacity. This paper is for readers to understand China’s opportunity, threat, and effect through analyzing its maritime strategy, and regional economic integration with ASEAN economy diplomacy and trade progress.

東協自由貿易區(AFTA)即將於2002年成立。本研究應用之模型為美國普渡大學發展之全球貿易(GTAP)模型,此為一多國多部門之一般均衡模型。從可計算一般均衡分析方法(CGE)的模擬分析,說明東協自由貿易區之形成對我國經貿的影響。 本文實證結果顯示，東協自由貿易區之形成對台灣總體經濟的影響十分有限。就國內生產而言，將使台灣的GDP下降0.01%，物價水準下降0.07%。台灣的出口量和進口量將分別小幅下降0.07%和0.21%，貿易順差增加約1千3百萬美元。貿易條件小幅降低0.08%，以Hicks等價變量所衡量的社會福利約減少1億4千8百萬美元。 東協自由貿易區之形成對台灣各產業的影響程度也不大。生產受到不利影響程度最大的是紡織業。出口方面，石油產品的出口增加率最大，飲料菸酒的降幅最可觀。進口方面，所有產業的進口量均下降，降幅最大的為石油產品。台灣各產業出口地區結構方面，出口到東協國家的比重大多呈現下降的情形，但是對區域外國家的出口比重則增加，很多原本出口到東協國家的產業都將移往中國大陸、北美地區、歐盟、和日本。

冷戰時期，東南亞區域發展受限於美蘇軍事力量的影響而互有對峙。直至21世紀初，隨著美、蘇兩國在東南亞部署的部分軍事力量移轉，加上中國大陸持續經濟成長與綜合國力的提升，使得在深化與東南亞周邊外交關係發展上，創造出有利條件，中共藉由經濟合作與軍事手段執行其在東南亞地區的睦鄰政策，以符合其在亞太地區周邊外交的戰略作為。 中共對東南亞國家周邊外交，主要係以政治和睦、經濟互利、安全互信等三個面向為基礎目標，試圖建構一個和平穩定的亞太周邊環境。首先在政治上，主要作法是強化與周邊國家政治關係，透過領導人出訪與各領域、各層級工作會議召開以及各國政治協定的簽署，全面提升與東南亞各國雙邊關係；其次在經濟上，主要在雙邊與多邊關係上加強與周邊國家的經濟合作，推動區域經濟一體化，並透過自由貿易區的計畫，次區域合作與經濟援助，強化在東南亞的影響力，藉成立「中國-東協自由貿易區」拉攏東協各國家；再者在安全上，加強解決與周邊國家解決在領土與領海主權上的爭議，與周邊國家建立雙邊軍事互信機制，參與多邊安全機制，如：參與「東協區域論壇」，及《東南亞友好合作條約》的加入等，藉以營造區域內負責任的大國形象。 中共在周邊外交戰略中，在東南亞區域議題是基於國家周邊安全與區域安全的考量，與中美大國關係的建立重要議題。在2009年美國總統歐巴馬上任之後，宣示美國「重返亞洲」企圖，並啟動多項亞太政策，著墨於區域多邊途徑，其政策亦正逐步落實中，美國對亞太區域發展影響力隨之增加。然而因美國在亞太長期的戰略影響力，重新關注東南亞地區，並以東南亞為軍事戰略重點，也使得中共在制訂對東南亞區域戰略過程與考量，須同時考慮美國影響因素的存在性。 同時，在中國大陸本身國家安全戰略考量之下與東南亞各國家合作，將有利於其國家整體發展與國家核心利益的維持，然中共在東南亞區域的整體戰略，同時牽動中共整體的周邊外交戰略。 / During the Cold War Era, the development of Southeast Asia region was limited and caused confrontations because of the influence of military power posed by Soviet-American arm race. Not until the beginning of 21st century, Soviet Union and United States’ transition of parts of military deployment in Southeast Asia region, couple with Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) continual economic growth and developing overall national strength, have created favorable conditions for CCP in developing and deepening diplomatic relations within Southeast Asia region. Moreover, through economic cooperation and military means, CCP carries out neighborhood policy in accordance to its diplomatic strategy in Southeast Asia region. CCP’s good neighbor foreign policy in Southeast Asia region mainly focuses on political harmony, economic common benefits as well as security and mutual-trust. All the above are fundamental goals in order to construct a peaceful and stable Asia-Pacific region. First, to start with politics, CCP strengthens political relations with neighboring countries through Key leader engagements, working conferences in all fields and levels as well as signing political agreements to enhance bilateral relationship among Southeast Asia countries. Second, followed by economics, in bilateral or multi-lateral economic cooperation with neighboring states, to promote regional economy integration and strengthen the CCP’s influence in Southeast Asia by plan of free trade area, sub-regional cooperation and assistance of economy. Also, CCP establishes ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) in order to win ASEAN over. Third, in terms of security, CCP endeavors to resolve territory and maritime territory disputes with neighboring countries, sets up a bilateral military mutual trust mechanism, and participates in a multi-lateral security mechanism. For instance, CCP’s participation as a member of ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) is able to create an image as a responsible rising power in the region. In CCP’s strategy of neighboring diplomacy, the issues are based on national and regional security in Southeast Asia region and how to built Sino-American relations. After the inauguration of Barack Obama in 2009, he declared the intention of pivot or rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific region, and launched several Asia-Pacific policies describing the regional multilateral approach and gradually implementing policies as result of increasing of United States’ influence in Asia-Pacific region. However, the long-term strategic influence of United States of America in Asia, US’s pivot to Southeast Asia region, and military strategy focusing on Southeast Asia force CCP to consider the factors of influence of United States when CCP formulates Southeast Asia region strategies. In the meantime, under the consideration of CCP’s national security strategy, to cooperate with Southeast Asia countries is beneficial CCP’s overall national development and in maintaining national essential interests. In short, CCP’s overall strategy in Southeast Asia affects its neighboring diplomatic strategies simultaneously.

多邊主義下帶動之「全球化」及區域主義下所帶動之「區域化」皆已成為現階段國際經貿發展的兩股重要潮流，透過洽簽自由貿易協定所達到之區域經濟整合，在區域內可消除絕大部份之關稅及非關稅貿易障礙，預計將有助於增進會員國間之貿易量，形成貿易創造效果，而或對於非會員國造成貿易轉向效果。故其將影響國際貿易的流向，國際資源的重分配，進而改變國際分工型態。 為瞭解區域經濟整合對於貿易流量的影響，本文首先將就區域經濟整合之定義與法源、區域經濟整合發展與現況、及台灣與各主要區域經濟整合之貿易概況進行概述。鑒於引力模型可有效的分析雙邊的貿易流量，本文針對該模型之相關文獻及實證歸納與整理，並利用引力模型，選擇全球六個重要區域經濟組織包括北美自由貿易區、歐盟、東協自由貿易區、南方共同市場、安地略集團及紐澳緊密關係協定等區域共計37個國家，以設定虛擬變數之方式實證1990年至2003年長達13年間各區域經濟整合的過程中，其對於區內會員國及對非屬會員國進、出口貿易流量之影響，特別是整合過程中對台灣是否產生貿易轉向之現象進行實證研究，並分析影響貿易流量之因素。 本實證研究發現影響二國間貿易流量的因素分別為出、進口國之國民生產毛額及人均國民生產毛額，以及距離。區域經濟整合具有明顯的貿易創造效果，而貿易轉向效果則隨經濟整合的緊密程度、區域內產業分工型態及與區域外國家出、進口結構及產業間相互競合程度不一而產生不同的影響。在上述六個區域經濟整合中，北美自由貿易區及南方共同市場對台灣產生貿易轉向的現象。本研究亦針對上述之結果與區域經濟整合實際進展現況進行交互分析。最後，本研究將就政策面及後續研究的方向提出建議，俾供參考。 / Globalization and regionalization have been the two main trends in international economic development in recent years. Already, many countries have signed Free Trade Agreements to achieve the goal of regional economic integration. This integration allows members of the region to virtually eliminate all tariff and non-tariff trade barriers and, as a result, increase trade volume between member countries. This phenomenon is called trade creation. On the other hand, trade volume between members of the region and non-member may decrease, a phenomenon called trade diversion. All of this will affect international trade flows, the allocation of international resources and change the pattern of the international industrial division. In order to learn how regional economic integration influences trade flows, this paper deals first with the definition and regulation under the GATT of regional trade agreements, the present situation and the development of regional economic integration. We also examine the current state of import and export trade between Taiwan and the main regional economies in the world. This paper reviews the relevant literature on the gravity model, a model that can effectively analyze trade flows between two countries, then proceeds to use this model with NAFTA, EU, AFTA, MERCOSUR, ANDEAN Community, and CER (Closer Economic Relationship between the Australia and New Zealand) as regional dummies. This allows us to test alterations in trade flows between members and other members as well as between members and non-members (especially Taiwan) in these six regional trade blocs for the 13 years between 1990 and 2003. This model also analyzes the main factors affecting trade flows. We find first that the main factors influencing trade flows between two countries are the GDP and per capita GDP of the importer and exporter as well as distance. Secondly, while regional economic integration clearly brings with it trade creation, the degree of trade diversion is affected by such factors as the degree of regional economic integration, the pattern of industrial division in the region, the structure of imports from and exports to non-member countries and the level of competition and cooperation in various sectors. The empirical evidence shows that NAFTA and Mercosur have resulted in trade diversion away from Taiwan. Based on our findings, we offer policy suggestions and suggestions for further research.

2002年7月31日，中共在「東協區域論壇」外長會議中，提出了「中方關於新安全觀的立場文件」，全面有系統地闡述了中共在新世紀下的安全觀念和政策主張，中共自1996年就提出應共同培育一種新型的安全觀念，中共領導人更多次在國際場合呼籲建立新安全觀，強調以對話協商增進了解和信任，通過協調合作促進和平與安全。 近年來，中共積極參與雙邊國際協定、多邊國際組織，強調「和平發展」重於一切，其中「東協區域論壇」與「上海合作組織」更被中共視為是新安全觀的具體成功實踐。新安全觀顯然已經成為中共順應經濟全球化與倡導世界多極化的主要工具，勢將成為中共對外政策的主調。因此，本文除探究中共新安全觀的背景與理念，更透過中共安全觀的改變、國際建制的參與，以掌握中共可能採行的國家安全政策與所面臨的挑戰。最終，並省思「新安全觀」為兩岸關係帶來的啟示。