南海爭端近幾年區域緊張情勢不斷升高。中國已將南海列為「核心利益」，而美國則將南海視為「國家利益」。基此，這顯現中美兩國在南海議題的積極作為，雙方在其處理南海議題的戰略架構下，兩國主要舉措均在外交與軍事層面上針鋒相對。外交上中國以「睦鄰外交」，穩定周邊局勢，美國則運用「前沿部署外交」拉攏東亞各國；兩國對於東協國家的態度將更為重視，亦是雙方外交戰略的重點所在，渠等均希望藉由東協國家的支持在南海議題上更有話語權。而軍事上中國以「反介入/區域拒止」的軍事作為防止域外國家介入其主權議題，而美國研擬「空海一體戰」除運用其強大的軍事科技實力外，欲結合各盟邦的力量，與其一同牽制中國的軍事行動。 綜上，在中美兩國相互的競逐作為下，佐以米爾斯海默之攻勢現實主義觀點，檢視中美兩國在南海之未來互動關係。潛在霸權國中國擁有眾多的人口與快速成長的經濟，並在南海整軍經武，試圖強化與東協甚或是東亞諸國的經貿互賴程度，且於處理亞洲事務中將美國排除在外，以取代美國擔任亞洲關鍵角色，尤其在南海的不妥協性，顯現出中國在此區域的主導性。另外，既存霸權國美國面對中國綜合國力崛起，則扮演「離岸平衡者」，融合「推諉卸責」、「均勢」之概念，拉攏東協及日本、印度等相關國家，共同制衡南海區域的權力失衡狀態，鞏固霸權地位。中美雙方皆將南海問題的層級提高，並且均欲爭取南海區域之領導地位，因此兩國在此區域未來將趨於競爭關係。 / The tension caused by the South China Sea dispute has been rising in recent years. China has listed the South China Sea as her “core interest”, while the U.S. considers the South China Sea as “national interest”. This, shows that both China and the U.S. have been acting aggressively on the South China Sea issue. Both sides, under their own strategic frames in dealing with the issues, square off over each other’s diplomatic and military acts. Diplomatically, China practices “Good Neighboring Diplomacy” to stabilize the relations with her surrounding neighbors, while the U.S. applies “Forward-Deployed Diplomacy” to bring together each country in East Asia to fight against China. The two countries value the attitude of the ASEAN members more than ever, and this is also the main focus of their diplomatic strategies; both desire to have more say on the South China Sea issue by gaining support from members of the ASEAN. In terms of military operation, China practices “Anti-Access/Area-Denial” to prevent other countries from intervening her sovereignty issues, while the U.S. crafts “Air-Sea Battle”, in which the U.S. applies her devastating military and technology power, and combines the force of each ally to rein China’s military operation. All in all, with the China-U.S. competition as the backdrop, and by referring to John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism, this study examines the future Sino-American relations in the South China Sea. China, as a potential hegemon, possesses a large population and a fast-growing economy; the state also conducts military operations in the South China Sea, with a view to consolidating the mutual economic and trade dependence of China and the ASEAN, even countries in East Asia. Moreover, China excludes the U.S. from dealing with tasks in Asia for the purpose of replacing the U.S. as the Asia’s key player. China’s intransigency in the South China Sea particularly reveals her dominance in the region. Besides, in facing China’s rise in all aspects, the U.S., as the current hegemon, plays the role of “The Off-shore Balancer”. By mixing "Buck-Passing" with "Balancing", the U.S. brings together countries involved in the issue such as the members of ASEAN, Japan, and India to collectively rein the power imbalance in the South China Sea, so as to consolidate her dominance. Both China and the U.S. have raised the level of the South China Sea issue, and have scrambled to gain the dominance in the South China Sea. Therefore, in the future, the two countries will become more of two competitors in this region.

冷戰時期，東南亞區域發展受限於美蘇軍事力量的影響而互有對峙。直至21世紀初，隨著美、蘇兩國在東南亞部署的部分軍事力量移轉，加上中國大陸持續經濟成長與綜合國力的提升，使得在深化與東南亞周邊外交關係發展上，創造出有利條件，中共藉由經濟合作與軍事手段執行其在東南亞地區的睦鄰政策，以符合其在亞太地區周邊外交的戰略作為。 中共對東南亞國家周邊外交，主要係以政治和睦、經濟互利、安全互信等三個面向為基礎目標，試圖建構一個和平穩定的亞太周邊環境。首先在政治上，主要作法是強化與周邊國家政治關係，透過領導人出訪與各領域、各層級工作會議召開以及各國政治協定的簽署，全面提升與東南亞各國雙邊關係；其次在經濟上，主要在雙邊與多邊關係上加強與周邊國家的經濟合作，推動區域經濟一體化，並透過自由貿易區的計畫，次區域合作與經濟援助，強化在東南亞的影響力，藉成立「中國-東協自由貿易區」拉攏東協各國家；再者在安全上，加強解決與周邊國家解決在領土與領海主權上的爭議，與周邊國家建立雙邊軍事互信機制，參與多邊安全機制，如：參與「東協區域論壇」，及《東南亞友好合作條約》的加入等，藉以營造區域內負責任的大國形象。 中共在周邊外交戰略中，在東南亞區域議題是基於國家周邊安全與區域安全的考量，與中美大國關係的建立重要議題。在2009年美國總統歐巴馬上任之後，宣示美國「重返亞洲」企圖，並啟動多項亞太政策，著墨於區域多邊途徑，其政策亦正逐步落實中，美國對亞太區域發展影響力隨之增加。然而因美國在亞太長期的戰略影響力，重新關注東南亞地區，並以東南亞為軍事戰略重點，也使得中共在制訂對東南亞區域戰略過程與考量，須同時考慮美國影響因素的存在性。 同時，在中國大陸本身國家安全戰略考量之下與東南亞各國家合作，將有利於其國家整體發展與國家核心利益的維持，然中共在東南亞區域的整體戰略，同時牽動中共整體的周邊外交戰略。 / During the Cold War Era, the development of Southeast Asia region was limited and caused confrontations because of the influence of military power posed by Soviet-American arm race. Not until the beginning of 21st century, Soviet Union and United States’ transition of parts of military deployment in Southeast Asia region, couple with Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) continual economic growth and developing overall national strength, have created favorable conditions for CCP in developing and deepening diplomatic relations within Southeast Asia region. Moreover, through economic cooperation and military means, CCP carries out neighborhood policy in accordance to its diplomatic strategy in Southeast Asia region. CCP’s good neighbor foreign policy in Southeast Asia region mainly focuses on political harmony, economic common benefits as well as security and mutual-trust. All the above are fundamental goals in order to construct a peaceful and stable Asia-Pacific region. First, to start with politics, CCP strengthens political relations with neighboring countries through Key leader engagements, working conferences in all fields and levels as well as signing political agreements to enhance bilateral relationship among Southeast Asia countries. Second, followed by economics, in bilateral or multi-lateral economic cooperation with neighboring states, to promote regional economy integration and strengthen the CCP’s influence in Southeast Asia by plan of free trade area, sub-regional cooperation and assistance of economy. Also, CCP establishes ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) in order to win ASEAN over. Third, in terms of security, CCP endeavors to resolve territory and maritime territory disputes with neighboring countries, sets up a bilateral military mutual trust mechanism, and participates in a multi-lateral security mechanism. For instance, CCP’s participation as a member of ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) is able to create an image as a responsible rising power in the region. In CCP’s strategy of neighboring diplomacy, the issues are based on national and regional security in Southeast Asia region and how to built Sino-American relations. After the inauguration of Barack Obama in 2009, he declared the intention of pivot or rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific region, and launched several Asia-Pacific policies describing the regional multilateral approach and gradually implementing policies as result of increasing of United States’ influence in Asia-Pacific region. However, the long-term strategic influence of United States of America in Asia, US’s pivot to Southeast Asia region, and military strategy focusing on Southeast Asia force CCP to consider the factors of influence of United States when CCP formulates Southeast Asia region strategies. In the meantime, under the consideration of CCP’s national security strategy, to cooperate with Southeast Asia countries is beneficial CCP’s overall national development and in maintaining national essential interests. In short, CCP’s overall strategy in Southeast Asia affects its neighboring diplomatic strategies simultaneously.

2013年3月14日，習近平成為中共的最高領導人，不同於前幾代中國大陸領導人，習近平提出了「中國夢」的願景，不僅為主導與型塑著習近平時代中共的對外政策、戰略規劃與全球佈局，且其的內涵伴隨著情勢發展和現實需要不斷的擴充，不僅積極應處周邊關係，穩定亞太地區、妥善處理海權爭議、牽制美國亞太「再平衡」戰略，並向西推進「一帶一路」戰略。 而在亞太地區被公認為世界經濟發動的火車頭之際，「重返亞洲」則成美國最重要的外交目標。歐巴馬政府重新調整外交政策，強調透過盟友、國際制度、謹慎的外交及道德理想的力量來爭取他人認同美國的目標，藉此促進本身的利益；同時，藉由增加在該地區的政治、經濟和軍事投入，逐漸提升其他國家對於美國的信任，藉此鞏固美國的領導地位。 美中雙方為何這麼在意在南海區域的發展及權利伸張，美國在仲裁案後特別強調南海是美國「最高國家利益」，而中方也早早就說過南海是中國的「核心利益」，如此是否註定中美兩方必在南海地區發生權力爭奪戲碼，不禁令人要問美、中雙方到底誰才是破壞南海和平或南海秩序的國家？ 南海究竟具備什麼樣的地理特性或其他重要的條件，讓世界的霸權及崛起的強權交集的南海地區，而使這個地區被學者示警南海恐成第3次世界大戰舞臺。 / On March 14, 2013, Xi Jinping became the supreme leader of the Chinese Communist Party. Unlike the leaders of the previous generation of mainland China, Xi Jinping put forward the vision of "Chinese Dream", not only for the foreign policy and strategic planning And the global layout, and its connotation along with the development of the situation and the reality needs to continue to expand, not only actively should be peripheral relations, stability in the Asia-Pacific region, properly handle the sea dispute, contain the US Asia-Pacific "rebalancing" strategy, and westward " Along the way "strategy. In the Asia-Pacific region is recognized as the world economy launched the locomotive, the "return to Asia" has become the United States the most important diplomatic goals. The Obama administration has reoriented its foreign policy by emphasizing the goal of the United States through its allies, international regimes, prudent diplomatic and moral ideals, to promote its own interests; by increasing the political, Economic and military investment, and gradually enhance the confidence of other countries for the United States, to consolidate the US leadership. Why the United States and China are concerned about the development of the South China Sea region and the right to extend the United States in the arbitration case, especially stressed that the South China Sea is the United States "the highest national interest", and the Chinese side has long said that the South China Sea is China's "core interests", so destined China and the United States will be in the South China Sea area of power to compete for drama, can not help but to ask the United States, the two sides in the end who is the destruction of the South China Sea peace or the South China Sea order of the country? The South China Sea has what kind of geographical features or other important conditions, so that the world's hegemony and the rise of the power of the intersection of the South China Sea region, leaving the region by the students to warn the South China Sea fear of the third World War stage.