南海爭端近幾年區域緊張情勢不斷升高。中國已將南海列為「核心利益」，而美國則將南海視為「國家利益」。基此，這顯現中美兩國在南海議題的積極作為，雙方在其處理南海議題的戰略架構下，兩國主要舉措均在外交與軍事層面上針鋒相對。外交上中國以「睦鄰外交」，穩定周邊局勢，美國則運用「前沿部署外交」拉攏東亞各國；兩國對於東協國家的態度將更為重視，亦是雙方外交戰略的重點所在，渠等均希望藉由東協國家的支持在南海議題上更有話語權。而軍事上中國以「反介入/區域拒止」的軍事作為防止域外國家介入其主權議題，而美國研擬「空海一體戰」除運用其強大的軍事科技實力外，欲結合各盟邦的力量，與其一同牽制中國的軍事行動。 綜上，在中美兩國相互的競逐作為下，佐以米爾斯海默之攻勢現實主義觀點，檢視中美兩國在南海之未來互動關係。潛在霸權國中國擁有眾多的人口與快速成長的經濟，並在南海整軍經武，試圖強化與東協甚或是東亞諸國的經貿互賴程度，且於處理亞洲事務中將美國排除在外，以取代美國擔任亞洲關鍵角色，尤其在南海的不妥協性，顯現出中國在此區域的主導性。另外，既存霸權國美國面對中國綜合國力崛起，則扮演「離岸平衡者」，融合「推諉卸責」、「均勢」之概念，拉攏東協及日本、印度等相關國家，共同制衡南海區域的權力失衡狀態，鞏固霸權地位。中美雙方皆將南海問題的層級提高，並且均欲爭取南海區域之領導地位，因此兩國在此區域未來將趨於競爭關係。 / The tension caused by the South China Sea dispute has been rising in recent years. China has listed the South China Sea as her “core interest”, while the U.S. considers the South China Sea as “national interest”. This, shows that both China and the U.S. have been acting aggressively on the South China Sea issue. Both sides, under their own strategic frames in dealing with the issues, square off over each other’s diplomatic and military acts. Diplomatically, China practices “Good Neighboring Diplomacy” to stabilize the relations with her surrounding neighbors, while the U.S. applies “Forward-Deployed Diplomacy” to bring together each country in East Asia to fight against China. The two countries value the attitude of the ASEAN members more than ever, and this is also the main focus of their diplomatic strategies; both desire to have more say on the South China Sea issue by gaining support from members of the ASEAN. In terms of military operation, China practices “Anti-Access/Area-Denial” to prevent other countries from intervening her sovereignty issues, while the U.S. crafts “Air-Sea Battle”, in which the U.S. applies her devastating military and technology power, and combines the force of each ally to rein China’s military operation. All in all, with the China-U.S. competition as the backdrop, and by referring to John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism, this study examines the future Sino-American relations in the South China Sea. China, as a potential hegemon, possesses a large population and a fast-growing economy; the state also conducts military operations in the South China Sea, with a view to consolidating the mutual economic and trade dependence of China and the ASEAN, even countries in East Asia. Moreover, China excludes the U.S. from dealing with tasks in Asia for the purpose of replacing the U.S. as the Asia’s key player. China’s intransigency in the South China Sea particularly reveals her dominance in the region. Besides, in facing China’s rise in all aspects, the U.S., as the current hegemon, plays the role of “The Off-shore Balancer”. By mixing "Buck-Passing" with "Balancing", the U.S. brings together countries involved in the issue such as the members of ASEAN, Japan, and India to collectively rein the power imbalance in the South China Sea, so as to consolidate her dominance. Both China and the U.S. have raised the level of the South China Sea issue, and have scrambled to gain the dominance in the South China Sea. Therefore, in the future, the two countries will become more of two competitors in this region.

近十年來，中共海軍力量的發展如同其經濟成長情形一樣快速起飛，很自然成為西方矚目焦點，特別是建立遠洋艦隊的企圖，更引起外界高度關注。依中共海軍規劃，希望在2050年具備並達到遂行遠洋作戰的能力和目標。 冷戰結束後，中共被視為崛起的新興區域強權。「中國威脅論」也一度甚囂塵上。雖然中共極力反駁，但是一個經濟高度發展、致力於富國強兵的中共，不可避免的為亞太地區的安全帶來極大的陰影。中共對於亞太地區的影響力，除了經濟因素外，終究還是以軍事力量最為明顯，使得對中共軍事力量備感壓力的亞太各國，對中共以國防現代化來突顯國力，更加的敏感。在經濟建設成果日盛的情況下，中共為擴大其沿海地區經濟的發展，及符合大國身份所推動國防現代化，都將影響亞太地區的安全。 隨著綜合國力的提升，中共以更具實力與自信處理有關核心利益的爭端。面對中共政治、經濟、軍事的全面崛起，身為全球霸權的美國謀求確保東亞區域秩序的穩定。但儘管美國在2009年7月宣布重返亞洲，中共和鄰國在領土主權問題上依舊衝突不斷。 中共之擴張已使東亞國家充滿不安全感，亞太國家仍陷入一場軍備競賽之中，並進一步鼓勵同盟體之出現及刺激日本加強軍備以求自保。不管亞太地區是進入軍備競賽之權力平衡體系，或是其他國家聯合對抗中共之態勢，對亞太地區建構中之多邊安全體系都是一種打擊。 / In the past decade, the development of PRC’s navy power has grown as fast as its economical trowth. Naturally, such rapid growth attracts the attention of western countries. PRC’s attempt to build a far sea fleet is especially highly concerned by international community. According to PRC’s own plan, it hopes to achieve the previous goals in 2050. After cold war, China has been determined a newly-rising-power country, and has started trying to conquer all the power left in the Asia Pacific area after the seperation of USSR, and along with their motivation, the rumar of the “China Threaten Theory” has once spreaded out in the world. Thought China has rejected this kind of rumar, but it is still a well-known economic and army developed country and unavoidably, affects the Pan Asia area. Generaly, economics of China is the influence to the Pan Asia area, but actually, the quick army-building is the main effect; as a matter of fact, this influence (modernized China military) has become a big pressure to Pan Asia countries. In order to follow the quick progression of economics in China, it is also trying to build the coastal area and modernize its national defense. This motivation will badly affect the safty of Pan Asia countries. As China’s comprehensive national power rises with its rapid economic growth, it becomes more capable of protecting its core interests. As a global hegemon, the U.S. strives to wecure regional stability in East Asia. Although the U.S. proposed “the U.S. Retrun to Asia” strategy in July 2009, confrontation in the South China Sea between China and other claimants still continues. This thesis discusses the impact of the U.S. return to Asia on China’s South China Sea policy. East Asia counties are new feel not safe at all due to China’s military development,and the Pan Asia countries are still playing in a game of purchasing military equipments, and moreover, China even tell Janpan to purchase more gears for their own good. It doesn’t matter what kind of system that Pan Asia countries are in , either the military competition, or united with other countries to fight China, it all will become an impact to the vivid safty system that Pan Asia countries have built.

冷戰時期，東南亞區域發展受限於美蘇軍事力量的影響而互有對峙。直至21世紀初，隨著美、蘇兩國在東南亞部署的部分軍事力量移轉，加上中國大陸持續經濟成長與綜合國力的提升，使得在深化與東南亞周邊外交關係發展上，創造出有利條件，中共藉由經濟合作與軍事手段執行其在東南亞地區的睦鄰政策，以符合其在亞太地區周邊外交的戰略作為。 中共對東南亞國家周邊外交，主要係以政治和睦、經濟互利、安全互信等三個面向為基礎目標，試圖建構一個和平穩定的亞太周邊環境。首先在政治上，主要作法是強化與周邊國家政治關係，透過領導人出訪與各領域、各層級工作會議召開以及各國政治協定的簽署，全面提升與東南亞各國雙邊關係；其次在經濟上，主要在雙邊與多邊關係上加強與周邊國家的經濟合作，推動區域經濟一體化，並透過自由貿易區的計畫，次區域合作與經濟援助，強化在東南亞的影響力，藉成立「中國-東協自由貿易區」拉攏東協各國家；再者在安全上，加強解決與周邊國家解決在領土與領海主權上的爭議，與周邊國家建立雙邊軍事互信機制，參與多邊安全機制，如：參與「東協區域論壇」，及《東南亞友好合作條約》的加入等，藉以營造區域內負責任的大國形象。 中共在周邊外交戰略中，在東南亞區域議題是基於國家周邊安全與區域安全的考量，與中美大國關係的建立重要議題。在2009年美國總統歐巴馬上任之後，宣示美國「重返亞洲」企圖，並啟動多項亞太政策，著墨於區域多邊途徑，其政策亦正逐步落實中，美國對亞太區域發展影響力隨之增加。然而因美國在亞太長期的戰略影響力，重新關注東南亞地區，並以東南亞為軍事戰略重點，也使得中共在制訂對東南亞區域戰略過程與考量，須同時考慮美國影響因素的存在性。 同時，在中國大陸本身國家安全戰略考量之下與東南亞各國家合作，將有利於其國家整體發展與國家核心利益的維持，然中共在東南亞區域的整體戰略，同時牽動中共整體的周邊外交戰略。 / During the Cold War Era, the development of Southeast Asia region was limited and caused confrontations because of the influence of military power posed by Soviet-American arm race. Not until the beginning of 21st century, Soviet Union and United States’ transition of parts of military deployment in Southeast Asia region, couple with Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) continual economic growth and developing overall national strength, have created favorable conditions for CCP in developing and deepening diplomatic relations within Southeast Asia region. Moreover, through economic cooperation and military means, CCP carries out neighborhood policy in accordance to its diplomatic strategy in Southeast Asia region. CCP’s good neighbor foreign policy in Southeast Asia region mainly focuses on political harmony, economic common benefits as well as security and mutual-trust. All the above are fundamental goals in order to construct a peaceful and stable Asia-Pacific region. First, to start with politics, CCP strengthens political relations with neighboring countries through Key leader engagements, working conferences in all fields and levels as well as signing political agreements to enhance bilateral relationship among Southeast Asia countries. Second, followed by economics, in bilateral or multi-lateral economic cooperation with neighboring states, to promote regional economy integration and strengthen the CCP’s influence in Southeast Asia by plan of free trade area, sub-regional cooperation and assistance of economy. Also, CCP establishes ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) in order to win ASEAN over. Third, in terms of security, CCP endeavors to resolve territory and maritime territory disputes with neighboring countries, sets up a bilateral military mutual trust mechanism, and participates in a multi-lateral security mechanism. For instance, CCP’s participation as a member of ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) is able to create an image as a responsible rising power in the region. In CCP’s strategy of neighboring diplomacy, the issues are based on national and regional security in Southeast Asia region and how to built Sino-American relations. After the inauguration of Barack Obama in 2009, he declared the intention of pivot or rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific region, and launched several Asia-Pacific policies describing the regional multilateral approach and gradually implementing policies as result of increasing of United States’ influence in Asia-Pacific region. However, the long-term strategic influence of United States of America in Asia, US’s pivot to Southeast Asia region, and military strategy focusing on Southeast Asia force CCP to consider the factors of influence of United States when CCP formulates Southeast Asia region strategies. In the meantime, under the consideration of CCP’s national security strategy, to cooperate with Southeast Asia countries is beneficial CCP’s overall national development and in maintaining national essential interests. In short, CCP’s overall strategy in Southeast Asia affects its neighboring diplomatic strategies simultaneously.

自2009年起，美國透過一系列政策宣示、外交行動施行重返亞洲政策，在涉及七個聲索方的南海主權爭端之中，美國的介入將會為難解的南海爭端增添更加複雜的因子。南海爭端的動態之所以受到關注，除了中共持續增長的綜合國力、美國將焦點投注至亞洲區域、防止潛在競爭對手產生的策略，南海爭端實際上為中、美角力的縮影。未來南海問題的發展，將可能影響區域、乃至國際的和平，必須持續關注。 中國所面對的國際環境正在轉變，此將影響其對於國家利益的認知與選擇，本文將以新現實與新自由主義的論爭，檢視近年美國重返亞洲後造成南海爭端再起的案例，並探討中共參與國際建制的利益認知、瞭解中共在冷戰後的多極化國際社會中的相對定位。 本文將分文三大部分：第一部分為國際關係理論與概念分析，將從國際關係理論與國際建制的探討，到中共參與國際安全建制的理論與概況，再進一步聚焦於中共的南海政策與主張；第二部分介紹南海爭端中其他聲索方之主張，以及各聲索方與中共在南海互動歷程，並探討為處理南海爭端而建立的安全建制演變與成效；第三部分將探討國際情勢的變化對國家外交政策的影響，以南海爭端為例，說明美國因素對中共外交利益視角造成的影響。 本文所欲探討的問題為：第一、中共為何願意採取相較溫和的「擱置爭議、共同開發」政策？又，在中共積極塑造負責任大國及營造友好周邊環境的目標下，為何「南海行為準則」的談判進度遲滯？第二、從國際關係理論研究南海問題，探討兩新學派之中何者較具解釋力？第三、國際建制是否有助於國際合作？最後，針對南海爭端對我國的啟示，也將在本文末章進行討論。

中共自1979年推行「改革開放」政策，其社會主義市場經濟進入快速成長軌道，隨著綜合國力的日漸崛起，牽動著亞太區域乃至國際地緣政治的變化，並引發周邊國家對其國家戰略及軍事意圖產生疑慮，即使中共一再闡述「和平發展」及透過對話方式，以期化解各國對其崛起發展的疑懼，但由於開放資訊程度的不透明，在短期內迭起的「中國威脅論」難以改觀。 盱衡當今全球局勢，「中」美關係的發展確是重要考量因素。美國當前全球戰略與其國家安全利益，即是防止區域霸權崛起，威脅美國的區域安全利益。面對中共的崛起，美國己展開「重返亞洲」再平衡策略等一系列的遏制舉措，中共則展現企圖掌控亞太霸權的動機極其明顯。中共與美國戰略利益衝突勢難避免，可見未來的「中」美關係將更為嚴峻，這是中共第五代領導人習近平上台後及美國總統歐巴馬第二任期內的極大挑戰。從區域政治、經濟、安全的視角，無論是亞太區域權力競合、經濟資源開發或軍事策略運作、東海及南海主權爭議等，在在影響「中」美戰略競逐與形勢消長。 美國自2008年全球金融風暴之後，經濟頹勢與財政困頓，而中共的市場經濟持續發展，對於美國恢復經濟動能十分重要。由於經濟的互賴日漸加深，雙方處於一種既競爭又合作的關係。在此種競合交錯的複雜環境下，美國重返亞洲的策略布局，已然被中共視為遏制其崛起的一大挑戰。因此，全力在經濟、外交與軍事上採取各種反制的作為。在「中」美戰略競逐的新形勢下，中共應可體認自身實力與限制因素，在國際戰略情勢中，尋求對自己最有利的位置。 / Since the People’s Republic of China (PRC) released the “Chinese Economic Reform” in 1979, its socialism-oriented market economy has gone into a fast-growing orbit. With the rise of comprehensive national power, PRC has influenced the shape of Asia-Pacific region, even the global geopolitics, and resulted in the neighboring countries’ doubt on its national strategies and military intentions. Although PRC seeks to dissolve other countries’ doubt and fear through expounding on its peaceful development and dialogue, the opacity of information makes it difficult to change their views in a short time. The development of China-United States relations is indeed a major consideration in current global situation. The global strategies and national security interests of United States are to prevent the rise of regional hegemony from threatening its regional security interests. Facing the rise of PRC, United States has implemented rebalancing strategy “Pivot to Asia” as one of the containment measures. On the other hand, the motivations which China is competing for the leadership in Asia-Pacific are obvious. The conflict of strategic interests between PRC and United States is inevitable, and their relations will be more difficult in the foreseeable future. It will be a great challenge for Xi Jinping’s administration, the PRC fifth leadership generation, and United Sates President Obama’s second term. In the perspective of regional politics, economics and security, whether the power competition in Asia-Pacific, development of economic resources, implementation of military strategies, or the sovereignty disputes in the East and South China Sea, they are all influencing the increase and decrease of the strategic competition and situation between China and United States. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the economy and finance of United States have suffered from recession. However, the market economy of PRC is continuing to grow and plays an important role to provide momentum for United States’ economy to recover. Due to the deepening economic interdependence, the relations of both sides can be competitive and cooperative. PRC has regarded Unites States’ “Pivot to Asia ”strategy as a challenge to contain it’s rise and therefore implemented economic, diplomatic, and military countermeasures. In the new situation of China-United States strategic competition, the PRC shall be aware of its strength and limitations to find its most strategic position in the international strategic circumstances.

2013年3月14日，習近平成為中共的最高領導人，不同於前幾代中國大陸領導人，習近平提出了「中國夢」的願景，不僅為主導與型塑著習近平時代中共的對外政策、戰略規劃與全球佈局，且其的內涵伴隨著情勢發展和現實需要不斷的擴充，不僅積極應處周邊關係，穩定亞太地區、妥善處理海權爭議、牽制美國亞太「再平衡」戰略，並向西推進「一帶一路」戰略。 而在亞太地區被公認為世界經濟發動的火車頭之際，「重返亞洲」則成美國最重要的外交目標。歐巴馬政府重新調整外交政策，強調透過盟友、國際制度、謹慎的外交及道德理想的力量來爭取他人認同美國的目標，藉此促進本身的利益；同時，藉由增加在該地區的政治、經濟和軍事投入，逐漸提升其他國家對於美國的信任，藉此鞏固美國的領導地位。 美中雙方為何這麼在意在南海區域的發展及權利伸張，美國在仲裁案後特別強調南海是美國「最高國家利益」，而中方也早早就說過南海是中國的「核心利益」，如此是否註定中美兩方必在南海地區發生權力爭奪戲碼，不禁令人要問美、中雙方到底誰才是破壞南海和平或南海秩序的國家？ 南海究竟具備什麼樣的地理特性或其他重要的條件，讓世界的霸權及崛起的強權交集的南海地區，而使這個地區被學者示警南海恐成第3次世界大戰舞臺。 / On March 14, 2013, Xi Jinping became the supreme leader of the Chinese Communist Party. Unlike the leaders of the previous generation of mainland China, Xi Jinping put forward the vision of "Chinese Dream", not only for the foreign policy and strategic planning And the global layout, and its connotation along with the development of the situation and the reality needs to continue to expand, not only actively should be peripheral relations, stability in the Asia-Pacific region, properly handle the sea dispute, contain the US Asia-Pacific "rebalancing" strategy, and westward " Along the way "strategy. In the Asia-Pacific region is recognized as the world economy launched the locomotive, the "return to Asia" has become the United States the most important diplomatic goals. The Obama administration has reoriented its foreign policy by emphasizing the goal of the United States through its allies, international regimes, prudent diplomatic and moral ideals, to promote its own interests; by increasing the political, Economic and military investment, and gradually enhance the confidence of other countries for the United States, to consolidate the US leadership. Why the United States and China are concerned about the development of the South China Sea region and the right to extend the United States in the arbitration case, especially stressed that the South China Sea is the United States "the highest national interest", and the Chinese side has long said that the South China Sea is China's "core interests", so destined China and the United States will be in the South China Sea area of power to compete for drama, can not help but to ask the United States, the two sides in the end who is the destruction of the South China Sea peace or the South China Sea order of the country? The South China Sea has what kind of geographical features or other important conditions, so that the world's hegemony and the rise of the power of the intersection of the South China Sea region, leaving the region by the students to warn the South China Sea fear of the third World War stage.