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The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090-2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [-3%, -34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse-gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [-15%, -65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to -74% [+4%, -100%] by 2290-2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.

Orography plays a major role in the general circulation and climate of the tropics. Although many works have been done on the impact of global orography on summer monsoon, the previous studies have examined the impact on seasonal mean scale or only during the first half of the season. Role of orography on intra-seasonal variability has not been addressed previously. Also, the proximate and remote impacts of orography have not been studied. In this thesis an atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) has been used to investigate the impact of global and regional orography on monsoon climate. Two different cumulus schemes have been used to study the sensitivity of the results to the cumulus parameterization scheme. The model was forced with seasonally varying sea surface temperature (SST) for the year 1998. An ensemble simulation of 5 members were performed for each experiment. The simulations showed that the removal of Himalayas or orography over the entire earth caused a delay of about one month in the onset of the monsoon. The delay in monsoon onset was on account of a more stable atmosphere due to intrusion of mid-latitude cold air into the Indian region in the absence of Himalayas. After the onset, the precipitation rate was comparable in control and no-mountain simulations. The seasonal mean (June-September) precipitation over this region decreased by 25% in the no-mountain case as compared to control. A comparison of the impact of east and west Himalaya orography showed that orography west of 80E has more impact on the phase and intensity of summer monsoon precipitation over the Indian region than orography east of 80E. The onset of summer monsoon over the Indian region was delayed by about one month with the removal of Himalaya orography west of 80E, but was delayed by just about one week with the removal of Himalaya orography east of 80E. This is because, the cold air intrusion was more when Himalaya orography west of 80E was removed. Seasonal mean precipitation decreased by 22% and 12% with the removal of orography west and east of 80E respectively. Himalaya orography east of 80E showed more influence on precipitation over the north-east Indian region and East Asia. The removal of orography from the African continent increased the summer monsoon precipitation over the Indian region. This was on account of an increase in the zonal mass flux from the African continent in the absence of East African mountains. This mass flux brings more moisture into the south Asian region and increases precipitation over the Indian region and Bay of Bengal. A higher precipitation over the Bay of Bengal leads to higher wind over the Somalia coast and this acts as a positive feedback to enhance the summer monsoon precipitation by about 28% over the Indian region. The presence of orography only over the African continent resulted in the largest delay in the monsoon onset (by 50 days) and the lowest amount of seasonal precipitation (decrease by 36%) over the Indian region among all the simulations. This is due to further reduction in zonal mass (and hence, moisture) flux toward the Indian subcontinent with the inclusion of African orography when compared with no-global orography simulation. The seasonal mean precipitation decreased by 19% over the Indian region with the removal of American orography. The onset of monsoon was delayed by about 3 weeks in this experiment as compared to control. This delay was due to a relative downward motion in the upper troposphere on account of the shift of the Rossby wave with the removal of American mountains. In this thesis, a new theory has been proposed for monsoon onset based on thermodynamic conditioning (necessary condition) and mechanical trigger (sufficient condition) of the atmosphere. This theory was able to explain the large variation in monsoon onset dates (maximum spread 57 days) in different simulations. The low level circulation was affected more by Himalaya orography west of 80E, which had a profound influence on precipitation over the Indian region. However, upper level circulation was affected more by Himalaya orography east of 80 E. The northward shift of the upper tropospheric westerly jet during the Northern Hemispheric summer was sudden in presence of the Tibetan Plateau and gradual in its absence. This shift was not related to the onset of monsoon over the Indian region. Northward propagation of convection was found to be present even in the absence of global orography. But northward extent of this propagation was delayed without orography on account of the absence of a favorite meridional gradient of moist static energy in the lower troposphere in the early summer season due to intrusion of mid-latitude cold air. Space-time spectral analysis showed that the intensity of eastward moving convectively coupled atmospheric waves, known as Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), decreased in absence of global orography. Moreover, the presence of orography favor the higher zonal wave number for MJO propagation.

Regimes of tropical low-level clouds are commonly identified according to large-scale subsidence and lower tropospheric stability (LTS). This definition alone is insufficient for the distinction between regimes and limits the comparison of low-level clouds from CloudSat radar observations and the ECHAM5 GCM run with the COSP radar simulator. Comparisons of CloudSat radar cloud altitude-reflectivity histograms for stratocumulus and shallow cumulus regimes, as defined above, show nearly identical reflectivity profiles, because the distinction between the two regimes is dependent upon atmospheric stability below 700 hPa and observations above 1.5 km. Regional subsets, near California and Hawaii, for example, have large differences in reflectivity profiles than the dynamically defined domain; indicating different reflectivity profiles exist under a given large-scale environment. Regional subsets are better for the evaluation of low-level clouds in CloudSat and ECHAM5 as there is less contamination between 2.5 km and 7.5 km from precipitating hydrometeors which obscured cloud reflectivities.

An investigation of the impact of the subgrid-scale variability of cloud liquid water on the autoconversion process as parameterized in a general circulation model is presented in this paper. For this purpose, a prognostic statistical probability density distribution (PDF) of the subgrid scale variability of cloud water is incorporated in a continuous autoconversion parameterization. Thus, the revised autoconversion rate is calculated by an integral of the autoconversion equation over the PDF of total water mixing ratio from the saturation vapor mixing ratio to the maximum of total water mixing ratio. An evaluation of the new autoconversion parameterization is carried out by means of one year simulations with the ECHAM5 climate model. The results indicate that the new autoconversion scheme causes an increase of the frequency of occurrence of high autoconversion rates and a decrease of low ones compared to the original scheme. This expected result is due to the emphasis on areas of high cloud liquid water in the new approach, and the non-linearity of the autoconversion with respect to liquid water mixing ratio. A similar trend as in the autoconversion is observed in the accretion process resulting from the coupling of both processes. As a consequence of the altered autoconversion, large-scale surface precipitation also shows a shift of occurrence from lower to higher rates. The vertically integrated cloud liquid water estimated by the model shows slight improvements compared to satellite data. Most importantly, the artificial tuning factor for autoconversion in the continuous parameterization could be reduced by almost an order of magnitude using the revised parameterization.

University, Diss., 2001--München.

Zugl.: Hamburg, Univ., Diss., 2009