Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2007. / Thesis Advisor(s): Simons, Anna. "December 2007." Title from title page of PDF document (viewed on: Mar 28, 2008). Includes bibliographical references (p. 65-72).

Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2007. / Thesis Advisor(s): Simons, Anna. "December 2007." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 18, 2008. Includes bibliographical references (p. 65-72). Also available in print.

The study of intra-state conflict has increased exponentially during the post-Cold War period. This has given rise to a variety of competing approaches, which have (i) adopted differing methodological and social theoretical orientations, and (ii) produced contradictory accounts of the causes and nature of violent conflict. This project intervenes in the debates which have resulted from this situation, and develops a critical realist approach to conflict studies. In doing so it rethinks the discipline from the philosophical ground up, by extending the ontological and epistemological insights which are provided by critical realism into more concrete reflections about methodological and social theoretical issues. In addition to engaging in reflection about philosophical, methodological, and social theoretical issues, however, the project also incorporates the insights of two largely neglected literatures into conflict studies. These are, first, the insights of the gender-studies literature, and second, the insights of decolonial/postcolonial forms of thought. It claims that the discipline is strengthened by incorporating the insights of these literatures, and that the critical realist framework provides us with the philosophical basis which is required in order to do so.

Previous civil war analyses have approached conflict as a single category with limited exceptions, and this thesis project assesses whether differentiating conflicts by their type and intensity using a local-level geo-referenced analytical approach produces differing results for sub-groups of conflicts. The conflicts are divided into 1) governmental hostilities, where the aim of the armed non-state group is to capture the state, and 2) territorial hostilities, where the aim of the armed non-state group is to capture increased autonomy or secession for a territorial claim. The conflicts are also differentiated by intensity into 1) low-intensity conflicts, with fewer than 1000 battle-related deaths per year, and 2) civil wars, with 1000 or more battle-related deaths per year. The results demonstrate that conflicts with differing insurgent goals and intensities of battle are correlated with markedly different factors. There are three factors – local population density, change in local rainfall, and statewide GDP growth – that are significant to both governmental and territorial hostilities but have opposite signs for the two sets. Only one variable – Polity IV scores – showed a consistently significant correlation for governmental and territorial hostilities. There are no factors that are significant to both low-intensity conflict and higher-intensity civil war. These findings suggest that approaching all conflicts as a single class, particularly at the local level, may not reveal significant differences in factors correlated with conflict. Modeling of local conflict will require differentiation of conflicts into salient sub-groups. For policymakers and practitioners, this research suggests that there is not a one-size-fits-all approach for conflict prevention but that strategies need to be targeted to specific types of conflict.

Research has begun to focus on the role third-party diplomatic intervention plays in the length of civil conflicts. Diplomatic interventions by a third-party actor are assumed to help resolve or alleviate violence over time. Is this really the case? Hypotheses relating to these aspects of civil wars are proposed to test this long-standing assumption. This thesis uses statistical analysis to observe the relationship between diplomatic interventions and civil war duration and then observe the relationship between duration and civil war violence. The data incorporates approximately 150 civil wars from 1945 to 1999, 101 of which had outside interventions. This thesis finds that, contrary to ex ante expectations, diplomatic interventions are a significant contributing factor to civil war length. Furthermore, longer civil wars are not associated with more civil war intensity in the aggregate, suggesting that longer civil wars do not mean more violent or intense ones.