Cette thèse présente une série d'études théoriques partageant une méthodologie commune: l'utilisation des modèles stock-flux cohérents. Sur la base de l'échec de l'outil d'analyse économique traditionnel, les modèles DSGE, je tente de montrer quels sont les principaux inconvénients de ces modèles, qui comprennent à la fois des problèmes méthodologiques et l'omission de certains aspects de la réalité qui sont cruciales (par exemple, le rôle de la monnaie et des marchés financiers). Dans le premier chapitre de cette thèse je montre pourquoi les modèles stock-flux cohérents offrent un véhicule plus précis à la compréhension des économies modernes. Ces raisons, qui sont reliés à une préoccupation plus élevé avec le réalisme, la précision comptable et l'interaction entre les différents agents économiques et des institutions sociales, expliquent pourquoi les modèles stock-flux cohérents ont réussi à détecter les instabilités qui se accumulaient dans les années avant l'éclatement de la crise financière mondiale. Après avoir expliqué la motivation pour étudier la dynamique macroéconomique par des modèles stock-flux cohérents je présente trois chapitres dans lesquels ces modèles sont adaptés à l'étude de certains problèmes spécifiques du monde réel, qui ont été et sont toujours pertinentes et ont une place privilégiée dans le agenda politique. Dans le deuxième chapitre, je étudie certaines des différentes alternatives pour la réforme du système monétaire international qui ont été proposées depuis la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale. A partir d'un modèle qui décrit l'état actuel des choses, il est montré comment ce modèle peut être modifié afin d'examiner comment chacun des solutions alternatives pourraient fonctionner. Ces solutions comprennent des options qui ont été largement débattues depuis des décennies, comme l'introduction du DTS (la monnaie émise par le FMI) et le bancor (la monnaie internationale que Keynes a proposé, avec la création d'une chambre de compensation internationale). Après avoir construit les modèles, des exercices de simulation sont menées. Ces expériences montrent de quelle façon chaque solution pourrait offrir un meilleur environnement mondial pour le développement des relations économiques internationales. En particulier, il est constaté que la mise en place d'une chambre de compensation comme laquelle Keynes a proposé ne serait pas seulement avantageuse à réduire les déséquilibres mondiaux, mais aussi elle pourrait produire un haut niveau de demande effective dans une échelle mondiale... / His  thesis  presents  a  series  of  theoretical  studies  sharing  a  common  methodology:  the  use  of  stock-­‐flow consistent models. Based on the failure of the state of the art analytical tool of the mainstream, the so-­‐called DSGE models, I attempt to show what are the main drawbacks of these models, which include both methodological problems and the omission of some aspects of reality that are crucial (e.g., the role of money and financial markets). In the first chapter of this thesis I show  why  stock-­‐flow  consistent  models  offer  a  more  accurate  vehicle  to  the  understanding  of  modern economies. These reasons, which are connected to a higher concern with realism, accounting  accuracy  and  the  interaction  between  the  different  economic  agents  and  social  institutions, explain why stock-­‐flow consistent models have been successful in detecting the instabilities that were accumulating in the years before the outbreak of the global financial crisis...

Engelmann spruce-subalpine fir [Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.-Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.] (ESSF) forests occupy large portions of western North America, and of British Columbia (B.C.) in particular. These areas represent a harsh environment for plant growth. The ESSF forests of B.C. have presented serious problems of regeneration following harvesting; several factors stimulated speculation as to whether N supply limitations were involved. This study was intended to highlight the post-harvest N dynamics of an ESSF forest, and the implications of the latter for silvicultural practices. Its general objectives included characterization of the post-harvest assart effect, and investigation of the N status and growth of advance regeneration. These were achieved by means of a comparative study of an age sequence of harvested sites. The assart effect lasted for at least eight years after harvesting, with a peak of change between years three and six. There were no major physical changes in the forest floor. Low C/N ratios between 19 and 32 were believed to have contributed to increased N availability. ESSF forests may have a generally higher level of N availability than previously supposed. The advance regeneration benefited from the assart effect. Nutrient uptake appeared to increase generally from at least three years after harvesting; increases of up to 78% were noted for N. There appeared to be no general macronutrient or micronutrient limitation to growth. However, evidence of S deficiencies was encountered in some trees. Moreover, the critical levels used for N may be in need of revision. A revised critical level of 1.40% for foliar N concentrations is proposed for subalpine fir advance regeneration. If this is accurate, regeneration may have been at least temporarily N-limited from year eight after harvesting. A more rigorous investigation of these possibilities is needed. The cutting method applied to the sites approximated a one-cut shelterwood method. The method as encountered in this study should not be considered a viable silvicultural option for similar ESSF forests. Its successful application would involve some degree of forest floor manipulation to improve seedbed conditions and soil microclimatic regimes. The findings of this study demonstrate that the environmental and biological characteristics of ESSF forests make high levels of planning and care a prerequisite for the success of silvicultural practices. The question of what comprises realistic growth and yield expectations of second-rotation stands in the ESSF zone needs to be addressed urgently. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

Educators in the basic education system are facing extreme challenges in assessing learners in general and in implementing assessment policy in particular. These challenges influence the pass rate, particularly in grade 12. The validity of the evidence of the learners’ performance depends on the quality and type of assessment tasks administered to those learners. Therefore, it was critical that those aspects, which pose challenges in the management of the assessment policy within the education system, be addressed by developing policies which would assist educators in managing assessment at school, since assessment forms an integral part of teaching and learning. Support programmes on policy implementation had to be developed for learners and for the training of educators, the implementation of which should improve the pass rate. These programmes had to include the conditions and roles of provincial and district education officers. A South African policy development model had to be developed to address the unique situation of developing such programmes. The introduction of the National Curriculum Statement (NCS) and the National Protocol on Recording and Reporting (NPRR) were some of the measures aimed at improving learner performance and assisting educators in implementing and managing assessment which is in line with national policy. An exploratory study, aimed at providing a broad framework on policy analysis, was used with the view to understand how the NCS and National Protocol for Recording and Reporting are managed. A proportional representative sample of 25% of the schools from the six clusters in the Mopani district formed part of this study. To ensure that the historically white, urban and rural schools were represented, an incidental biased sampling method was used. Data obtained from the questionnaire indicates that educators have knowledge of the various policies, acts and guidelines which should be used in assessing learners. However, some data indicates that some educators know about the existence of such policies, acts and guidelines but do not have knowledge of the content thereof. Data obtained from the interviews indicates that educators either know the content of policies or are only aware of them. Therefore, the lack of knowledge of policy content which regulates the practice of a policy has an influence on the teaching and assessing of learners. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / School of Public Management and Administration (SPMA) / unrestricted

This master's thesis analyses the problems concerning system of payments especially clearing credit transfers, bank statement of accounts and interconnection with the company’s information system. It proposes suitable ways of optimalization which in the upshot lead to a better exploitation of information technologies and simplification for the human operator.

Microchimerism arises from the exchange of cells between genetically distinct individuals. The coexistence of genetically distinct cell populations within a single organism has possible effects on health and functioning of individuals immune systems, but the exact mechanisms of action are often not yet known. With the development of microscopic technologies and software for data analysis, the possibilities of detection and phenotyping of these rare cell populations are expanding. My intention in this work is to find maternal microchimerism in embryonic tissues (E13) and intestines of breastfed pups using MHCII/EGFP knock-in mouse model. Several different technologies potentially suitable for the detection of maternal microchimeric cells in offspring tissues (light sheet fluorescent microscopy - LSFM, virtual slide microscopy and flow cytometry) were selected. Advanced analysis of the obtained samples from the light sheet microscopy using the creation of a neural network was used here. The presence of maternal microchimerism was not demonstrated by flow cytometry. Using LSFM, image data were obtained from intestinal samples of suckling pups, which were processed by the neural network method. Data analysis of embryos (E13) obtained by the same method did not allow data analysis due to high...

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Over 115 miles of rock revetment have been constructed in the Willamette Basin to protect river banks. This study examines the effect on riparian mammals of maintaining these revetments by vegetation and debris clearing. Differences between cleared and uncleared revetments were measured using a canopy coverage method of vegetation analysis; mammals were studied by trapping, by direct observation, and by noting such signs as scats, tracks, etc.

By participating in the market a party buys and sells different types of contracts resulting in the collection of contracts growing. With a large collection of contracts come the hurdles of an increasing operational cost, a harder-to-manage order book, and an increase in counterparty risk. To combat these problems we set out to minimize the size and quantity of contracts by performing what is called a compression. We have looked into three different types of compression methods for interest rate swap contracts. One method is specialized for central clearing, Coupon Blending, and two methods for bilateral clearing, Closed Loops, and the Network Simplex Method. By using Monte Carlo Simulations, all three methods could be compared to one another to conclude the significant findings. The clear winner for centrally cleared contracts was Coupon Blending which could terminate over 92% of the contracts, and reduce the total absolute size of the contracts by over 75%. Network Simplex came in as a close second which could also reduce the total absolute size of the contracts by over 75% but only terminate 86%. Coupon Blending and Network Simplex, both had very similar accuracy in their compression. However, NetworkSimplex performed better at keeping the system’s total risk intact. For bilateral clearing, NetworkSimplex performed the best where the Closed Loops strategy was not an optimized approach. / Genom att delta i den finansiella marknaden köper och säljer en participant olika sorters kontrakt vilket resulterar i att samlingen av kontrakt växer. Med en ständigt växande samling av kontrakt skapas problem som, att kostnaden för hantering ökar, att orderbokens hantering blir svårare och en ökad risk för konkurs. För att undvika dessa problem kan man utföra kompression vilket är att försöka reducera kontrakten i antal och storlek. Vi har studerat tre olika typer av kompressionsstrategier för kompression av ränteswappar. Den första strategin är Coupon Blending som är specialiserad för central clearing medan de två andra, Closed Loops och Network Simplex Metoden är utvecklade för bilateral clearing. Genom att använda Monte Carlo Simuleringar på alla tre strategier kunde vi dra slutsatser kring deras egenskaper och effektivitet. Den bästa strategin var Coupon Blending som kunde terminera över 92% av alla kontrakt, och samtidigt reducera den totala absoluta storleken på kontrakten med 75%. Network Simplex presterade också bra och kunde reducera den totala absoluta storleken på kontrakten med 75% och terminera 86% av kontrakten. Coupon Blending och Network Simplex hade bägge en liknande noggrannhet, men Network Simplex var något bättre på att hålla systemets totala risk intakt. För bilateral clearing presterade Network Simplex bäst där Closed Loops strategin inte var tillräckligt optimerad.

Central Clearing Counterparties play a crucial role in financial markets, requiring robust risk management practices to ensure operational stability. A growing emphasis on risk analysis and stress testing from regulators has led to the need for sophisticated tools that can model extreme but plausible market scenarios. This thesis presents a method leveraging Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) to construct an independent scenario generator capable of modeling and generating return distributions for financial markets. The developed method utilizes two primary components: the WGAN-GP model and a novel scenario selection strategy. The WGAN-GP model approximates the multivariate return distribution of stocks, generating plausible return scenarios. The scenario selection strategy employs lower and upper bounds on Euclidean distance calculated from the return vector to identify, and select, extreme scenarios suitable for stress testing clearing members' portfolios. This approach enables the extraction of extreme yet plausible returns. This method was evaluated using 25 years of historical stock return data from the S&P 500. Results demonstrate that the WGAN-GP model effectively approximates the multivariate return distribution of several stocks, facilitating the generation of new plausible returns. However, the model requires extensive training to fully capture the tails of the distribution. The Euclidean distance-based scenario selection strategy shows promise in identifying extreme scenarios, with the generated scenarios demonstrating comparable portfolio impact to historical scenarios. These results suggest that the proposed method offers valuable tools for Central Clearing Counterparties to enhance their risk management. / Centrala motparter spelar en avgörande roll i dagens finansmarknad, vilket innebär att robusta riskhanteringsrutiner är nödvändiga för att säkerställa operativ stabilitet. Ökande regulatoriskt tryck för riskanalys och stresstestning från tillsynsmyndigheter har lett till behovet av avancerade verktyg som kan modellera extrema men troliga marknadsscenarier. I denna uppsats presenteras en metod som använder Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks med Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) för att skapa en oberoende scenariogenerator som kan modellera och generera avkastningsfördelningar för finansmarknader. Den framtagna metoden består av två huvudkomponenter: WGAN-GP-modellen och en scenariourvalstrategi. WGAN-GP-modellen approximerar den multivariata avkastningsfördelningen för aktier och genererar möjliga avkastningsscenarier. Urvalsstrategin för scenarier använder nedre och övre gränser för euklidiskt avstånd, beräknat från avkastningsvektorn, för att identifiera och välja extrema scenarier som kan användas för att stresstesta clearingmedlemmars portföljer. Denna strategi gör det möjligt att erhålla nya extrema men troliga avkastningar. Metoden utvärderas med 25 års historisk aktieavkastningsdata från S&P 500. Resultaten visar att WGAN-GP-modellen effektivt kan approximera den multivariata avkastningsfördelningen för flera aktier och därmed generera nya möjliga avkastningar. Modellen kan dock kräva en omfattande mängd träningscykler (epochs) för att fullt ut fånga fördelningens svansar. Scenariurvalet baserat på euklidiskt avstånd visade lovande resultat som ett urvalskriterium för extrema scenarier. De genererade scenarierna visar en jämförbar påverkan på portföljer i förhållande till de historiska scenarierna. Dessa resultat tyder på att den föreslagna metoden kan erbjuda värdefulla verktyg för centrala motparter att förbättra sin riskhantering.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(医学) / 甲第24505号 / 医博第4947号 / 新制||医||1064(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院医学研究科医学専攻 / (主査)教授 渡邉 大, 教授 林 康紀, 教授 井上 治久 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Medical Science / Kyoto University / DFAM