There is a consensus of scientific thought that humana ctivities are altering the gaseous composition of the atmosphere and leading to global climate change. This thesis addresses the question of how this global climate change will manifest itself at the regional level. In particular, a dynamic simulation model integrating both climate change and climatically sensitives ocio-economic activities will be developed. This model will explore the regional variations in both climate change and socio-economic activity. Three Local Authorities in Scotland were chosen for this study, Argyll on the west coast, Stirling inland and Fife on the east coast. This provides a west-east transect across central Scotland. Meteorological data, covering the period 1970-1998, was collected from twelve sites spread across these regions. These data were analysed in order to provide a climatic profile of each of the regions, and to identify any evidence of climate change in the form of trends in the data. Data relating to socio-economic factors was taken from a variety of sources. Mere possible this covered the same period in time as the climate data. Both sets of data were examined to determine evidence of climate sensitivity in the socioeconomic data using suitable statistical techniques. A simple, yet thermodynamically sound, dynamic climate model was developed and calibrated for each region using the data from the previous analysis. This model allowed increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02) to directly affect the mean surface temperature of the three regions. Precipitation changes from the UKCIP02 regional climate model were included This allowed seasonal temperature and precipitation totals to be simulated, on a regional basis, under different climate change scenarios. Simulations, calibrated on datafrom 1970-1998, were run forward to 2100. The climate results were similar to the outputfrom the UKCIP02 model. Six sectors of a socio-economic model were constructed population, employment, land use, water resources, housing and emissions. Where statistically significant relationships, between climatic and the local socio-economic variables were found, these were included in the model. Simulations for the period 1970-2100, were run under four different climate change scenarios, and that of constant climate, in order to assessth eir impact on the six sectors at the regional scale. The results indicate considerable regional variations in the impacts both of climate change and the associated climatically sensitive activities. Argyll in the west, for example, could benefit from increased tourism and the potential for agricultural expansion. If in-migration is allowed to offset labour shortages, then the west sees a reversal of the population decline of previous decades. Climate change has little impact on the economy of the inland and eastern regions. However, a problem does emerge with water resources in the east. Summer droughts are seen to increase in frequency, suggesting that both the costs and benefits of climate change will be unevenly distributed. The implications of these results for the management of change are then discussed along with future research needs.

Increasing sea levels have the potential to place important portions of the infrastructure we rely on every day at risk. The transportation infrastructure relies on roads, airports, and seaports to move people, services, and goods around in an ever connected global economy. Any disturbances of the transportation modes have reverberating effects throughout the entire economic spectrum. The effects include delays, alterations of routes, and possible changes in the origin and destinations of services and goods. The purpose of this project is to develop an improved methodology for a sea level rise scenario vulnerability assessment model. This new model uses the groundwater elevation as a limiting factor for soil storage capacity in determining previously underestimated areas of vulnerability. The hope is that early identification of vulnerability will allow planners and government officials an opportunity to identify and either remediate or create alternative solutions for vulnerable land areas before high consequence impacts are felt. / by Thomas Romah. / Thesis (M.S.C.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2012. / Includes bibliography. / Mode of access: World Wide Web. / System requirements: Adobe Reader.

O bioma Cerrado está presente em 91% do Estado do Tocantins. Este bioma apresenta elevada riqueza biológica e nele ocorrem importantes mananciais brasileiros. Com o aumento da emissão de gases do efeito estufa por fontes antrópicas, possíveis mudanças climáticas representam uma ameaça para a diversidade biológica e recursos hídricos deste ambiente. Neste âmbito, uma das principais demandas científicas e ambientais da atualidade consiste da estruturação de modelos climáticos que subsidiem a tomada de decisão, visando a atenuação ou mesmo a mitigação de possíveis impactos decorrentes de mudanças climáticas. Tendo-se em vista as incertezas sobre a concentração futura de GEEs, o IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) estruturou diferentes trajetórias para o forçamento radiativo ao longo do século XXI, sendo denominadas RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways). Os RCPs abordam desde futuros otimistas, nos quais a forçante radiativa decorrentes de ações antrópicas é reduzida (RCP 2.6), até situações pessimistas (RCP 8.5), sendo o RCP 4.5 uma situação considerada intermediária. Assim, Modelos Climáticos Globais (MCGs) vem sendo aplicados para a simulação das mudanças climáticas inerentes aos diferentes RCPs ao longo do século XXI. Entretanto, para a análise regional das mudanças climáticas torna-se necessária a regionalização das informações de macro escala geradas pelos MCGs, através de modelos climáticos regionais, com destaque para o modelo Eta no Brasil. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste trabalho foi a avaliação de cenários climáticos simulados pelos modelos climáticos regionais Eta-HadGEM2-ES e Eta-MIROC5 para o Estado do Tocantins. O presente estudo foi estruturado em dois capítulos com objetivos específicos, sendo: (1) avaliar a qualidade estatística do clima presente ou baseline (1961-2005) projetado pelos modelos climáticos para a localização de cinco estações meteorológicas que dispõe de dados observados (precipitação total anual, precipitação máxima diária anual, temperatura máxima diária anual, temperatura média anual, temperatura mínima diária anual e umidade relativa anual), sendo: Araguaína, Pedro Afonso, Peixe, Porto Nacional e Taguatinga; (2) mapeamento das mudanças climáticas simuladas para o Estado do Tocantins pelos modelos climáticos Eta-HadGEM2-ES e Eta-MIROC5 nos RCPs 4.5 e 8.5, nos períodos seco e chuvoso, para os intervalos de 2007 a 2040 e 2041 a 2070, abrangendo as seguintes variáveis: precipitação, evapotranspiração real, temperatura máxima, temperatura média, temperatura mínima e umidade relativa. Os resultados mostraram necessidade de realização da remoção dos erros sistemáticos dos modelos climáticos previamente à utilização das projeções futuras. Quanto à simulação do clima presente, o modelo Eta-MIROC5 obteve melhor desempenho para a precipitação total anual e umidade relativa anual, enquanto que o modelo Eta-HadGEM2-ES obteve melhor desempenho para a temperatura (máxima diária anual, média anual e mínima diária anual). Na simulação climática futura, de maneira geral, ambos modelos apresentaram prognósticos mais severos para o RCP 8.5 no segundo período futuro avaliado (2041 a 2070) para o Estado do Tocantins. As projeções do modelo Eta-HadGEM2-ES apresentaram maior grau de severidade para a precipitação, temperatura (máxima, média e mínima), evapotranspiração real e umidade relativa, quando comparadas às projeções do Eta-MIROC5. O modelo Eta-HadGEM2-ES projetou para o período de 2041 a 2070 (RCP 8.5) aumento da temperatura média de até 4,9 ºC, enquanto que para o mesmo período e RCP simulado pelo Eta-MIROC5 o aumento projetado foi de 2,9 ºC. Ainda para este período e RCP as reduções simuladas para a precipitação chegou a 462,1 e 383,1 mm, pelos modelos Eta-HadGEM2-ES e Eta-MIROC5, respectivamente. Foram simuladas regiões do Estado com mudanças climáticas mais severas. Destaca-se a região Centro-Sul, nas proximidades da UHE Peixe/Angical para o regime de chuvas e a região Sul da Ilha do Bananal e APA dos Meandros do rio Araguaia para a temperatura. / The Cerrado biome is present in 91% of the State of Tocantins. This biome presents high biological wealth and in it occur important Brazilian springs. With increasing greenhouse gas emissions by anthropic sources, possible climatic change poses a threat to the biological diversity and water resources of this environment. In this context, one of the main scientific and environmental demands of today consist in the structuring of climatic models that subsidize decision making, aiming the attenuation or even mitigation of possible impacts due to climatic change. Given the uncertainties about the future concentration of GHGs, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has structured different paths for radiative forcing throughout the XXI century, being called RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways). The RCPs approach from optimistic futures, in which the radiative forcing due to anthropic actions is reduced (RCP 2.6), to pessimistic situations (RCP 8.5), with RCP 4.5 being considered as an intermediate situation. Thus, Global Climatic Models (MCGs) have been applied to the simulation of the climatic changes inherent in different CPRs throughout theXXI century. However, regional analysis of climate change requires the regionalization of macro-scale information generated by MCGs through regional climate models, with emphasis on the Eta model in Brazil. In this context, the objective of this work was the evaluation of climatic scenarios simulated by the regional climatic models Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5 for the State of Tocantins. The present study was structured in two chapters with specific objectives, being: (1) to evaluate the statistical quality of the present or baseline climate (1961-2005) projected by the climatic models for the location of five meteorological stations with observed data (annual total precipitation, annual maximum daily precipitation, annual maximum daily temperature, average temperature Annual, annual minimum daily temperature and annual relative humidity), being: Araguaína, Pedro Afonso, Peixe, Porto Nacional and Taguatinga; (2) mapping of simulated climatic changes for the State of Tocantins by the climatic models Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5 in RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, in the dry and rainy periods, for the intervals from 2007 to 2040 and 2041 to 2070, covering the following variables: precipitation, real evapotranspiration, maximum temperature, average temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity. The results showed the need to perform to remove systematic errors of the climatic models previously to the use of future projections. Regarding the simulation of the present climate, the Eta-MIROC5 model obtained better performance for the annual total precipitation and annual relative humidity, while the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model obtained better performance for temperature (daily maximum annual, annual average and minimum daily Yearly). In the future climatic simulation, both models presented more severe prognoses for RCP 8.5 in the second evaluated future period (2041 to 2070) for the state of Tocantins. The projections of the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model showed a higher degree of severity for precipitation, temperature (maximum, average and minimum), actual evapotranspiration and relative humidity when compared to Eta-MIROC5 projections. The Eta-HadGEM2-ES model projected for the period from 2041 to 2070 (RCP 8.5) an increase in the mean temperature up to 4.9 ° C, whereas for the same period and CPR simulated by Eta-MIROC5 the projected increase was 2, 9 ° C. Also for this period and CPR the simulated reductions for precipitation reached 462.1 and 383.1 mm, by the Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5 models, respectively. Were simulated regions of the state with more severe climate changes. The Center-South region, near the Peixe / Angical HPP for the rainfall regime and the Southern region of the Bananal Island and the APA of the Meandros of the Araguaia river for the temperature, stands out.