Understanding of climate change and policy responses thereto rely on accurate measurements as well as models of both socio-economic and physical processes. However, data to assess impacts and establish historical climate records are non-stationary: distributions shift over time due to shocks, measurement changes, and stochastic trends - all of which invalidate standard statistical inference. This thesis establishes econometric methods to model non-stationary climate data consistent with known physical laws, enabling joint estimation and testing, develops techniques for the automatic detection of structural breaks, and evaluates socio-economic scenarios used in long-run climate projections. Econometric cointegration analysis can be used to overcome inferential difficulties stemming from stochastic trends in time series, however, cointegration has been criticised in climate research for lacking a physical justification for its use. I show that physical two-component energy balance models of global mean climate can be mapped to a cointegrated system, making them directly testable, and thereby provide a physical justification for econometric methods in climate research. Automatic model selection with more variables than observations is introduced in modelling concentrations of atmospheric CO₂, while controlling for outliers and breaks at any point in the sample using impulse indicator saturation. Without imposing the inclusion of variables a-priori, model selection results find that vegetation, temperature and other natural factors alone cannot explain the trend or the variation in CO₂ growth. Industrial production components, driven by business cycles and economic shocks, are highly significant contributors. Generalizing the principle of indicator saturation, I present a methodology to detect structural breaks at any point in a time series using designed functions. Selecting over these break functions at every point in time using a general-to-specific algorithm, yields unbiased estimates of the break date and magnitude. Analytical derivations for the split-sample approach are provided under the null of no breaks and the alternative of one or more breaks. The methodology is demonstrated by detecting volcanic eruptions in a time series of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature derived from a coupled climate simulation spanning close to 1200 years. All climate models require socio-economic projections to make statements about future climate change. The large span of projected temperature changes then originates predominantly from the wide range of scenarios, rather than uncertainty in climate models themselves. For the first time, observations over two decades are available against which the first sets of socio-economic scenarios used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports can be assessed. The results show that the growth rate in fossil fuel CO₂ emission intensity (fossil fuel CO2 emissions per GDP) over the 2000s exceeds all main scenario values, with the discrepancy being driven by underprediction of high growth rates in Asia. This underestimation of emission intensity raises concerns about achieving a world of economic prosperity in an environmentally sustainable fashion.

The study of anthropogenic climate change is a research area of vital importance for the coming decades, with rainfall change and variability expected to be keenly felt in vulnerable regions of the world, including Africa. The focus of this study is daily rainfall during the short rains season over East Africa from October to December, which has one of the most coherent increasing rainfall projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) dataset. This thesis aims to examine the fidelity of coupled climate models over an East African domain, with the question approached through focus on the daily (rather than monthly) rainfall field. The self-organising map is used as a clustering tool to establish contemporary characteristics of daily rainfall events in reanalysis (ERA-40) and satellite (TRMM) rainfall datasets between 1971-2000 and 1998-2010 respectively for the East African short rains. Moisture flux divergence is found to be the circulation parameter that is most closely related to the presence of rainfall events or dry conditions over East Africa. Coupled climate models are poor at replicating the daily rainfall field over the domain. A key result of the analysis is the consistent overestimation of daily rainfall by climate models for days where dry conditions of suppressed convection should prevail. In contrast, the moisture flux divergence field maps well to dry nodes for days of the self-organising map array for the models. Dry days are associated with widespread anomalous moisture flux divergence and rainfall events with co-located anomalous moisture flux convergence. This is in agreement with the moisture flux divergence field in the ERA-40 dataset; it is the rainfall field where there is disagreement for days of suppressed convection. Twenty to thirty-five percent of the projected rainfall increase towards the end of the twenty-first century results from an increase in the proportion of days assigned to nodes of suppressed convection in six of the seven models and the ensemble mean. There is an accompanying projected rainfall increase associated with days assigned to these nodes. Such days in the 2090s are characterised by projected increased strength moisture flux divergence over East Africa. Given that the moisture flux field was more successfully simulated in the coupled models under contemporary conditions than the daily rainfall field, this suggests that rainfall projections under a high emissions scenario at the end of the twenty-first century are overestimated and that an important part of the key increase in the projected rainfall may not be real.

Black carbon (BC) is the light-absorbing component of soot, a combustion-generated aerosol that warms the climate by absorbing solar radiation. Its impacts on climate depend on its microphysical properties, which are modified by atmospheric processes including condensation, coagulation and wet removal. State of the art climate models consider soot in a concentric core/shell configuration, with a BC core coated by nonrefractory material such as organics or sulphate. Within this model, thicker coatings enhance visible light absorption, but also wet removal efficiency, and these have opposing effects on the total amount of light absorbed over BC’s lifetime. How well the core/shell model can calculate Mass Absorption Coefficient (MAC, the ratio of absorption to BC mass) is uncertain, as real soot forms more complex (often fractal) shapes, and detailed optical models using these morphologies predict the core/shell model may under- or over-estimate MAC depending on the precise properties of the particles. Few reliable measurements of variations in ambient MAC are available, as most older measurement techniques suffer from systematic uncertainties. In this work, a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) and PhotoAcoustic Soot Spectrometer (PASS) were used to measure BC mass concentration and absorption, and these instruments do not suffer from such uncertainties. The SP2 was also used to report core size and coating thickness distributions that are required to test state of the art climate models. Firstly, a method was developed to minimise bias in the measured coating thicknesses related to the limited detection range of the SP2. The sensitivity of this technique to the assumed density and refractive index of the BC core was also explored, and the most appropriate parameters to use with ambient measurements were determined. Core and shell distributions were measured in Pasadena, California under a range of different photochemical ages. These were then used to calculate MAC, which was compared to that measured using the SP2 and PASS. The measured and modelled MAC agreed within 10% at 532 nm, though this was dependent on the assumed refractive index of the BC core. Overall MAC increased by 15 –25% in around one third of a day of photochemical ageing. This is quite modest compared to some climate models, but not compared to the previous best estimate, which predicted MAC may increase by a factor of ~1.5 over BC’s lifetime. Core and coating distributions were also measured in Canadian boreal biomass burning plumes. A case study was presented comparing the properties of BC in three plumes, one of which had passed through a precipitating cloud. It was demonstrated that larger and more coated BC-containing particles were removed more efficiently, in agreement with previous thermodynamic theory. By calculating MAC using the measured core/shell distributions and comparing to measured scattering, it was demonstrated that the MAC and single-scattering albedo in the plumes were likely not significantly affected by the wet removal, as greater differences were observed between the two plumes not affected by precipitation.

The climate variability over the North Atlantic region is described in the 10-50 year band, using a 500-year integration of the Hamburg ECHAMl/LSG coupled general circulation model. In order to isolate nearly periodic components of the atmosphere and the ocean, the multichannel version of the singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) is applied to 11 components of the climate system. In doing so the main focus is on the turbulent exchange between the two subsystems. One interdecadal oscillation of the system ocean and atmosphere is detected with a period of about 18 years. The associated anomalies of sea level pressure (SLP) are situated east of Newfoundland while these of the geopotential height at 500 hPa are slightly shifted to the East. Both the fields undergo a primarily standing oscillation. The sea surface temperature (SST) and the sub surface temperature anomalies have a large extension along the 40° N latitude circle with most of their variability south of Newfoundland. lt is found that the SST anomaly is primarily generated by the temperature advection in the upper ocean layer which is coupled to the Subpolar Gyre strength and Ekman pumping vertical velocity. Both the processes are forced by the atmosphere. In a further analysis applied only to the SST and the Geopotential height at 500 hPa over the whole Northern Hemisphere this 18 year mode was also isolated. The modes obtained by the local and hemispheric analyses are well correlated both in time and space, suggesting a more active role of atmosphere than of the ocean, in addition a strong modulation of the amplitude of the oscillation due to local processes over the North Atlantic was detected. / Die Klimavariabilität über dem Nordatlantik wird anhand einer 500 Jahre Integration des Hamburger gekoppelten Klimamodels ECHAMl/LSG untersucht. Um periodische Komponenten in Ozean und Atmosphäre zu isolieren, wird die MSSA ('multichannel singular spectrum analysis') auf 11 Komponenten des Klimasystems angewandt. Bei den Analysen wird besonderes Augenmerk auf den turbulenten Austausch zwischen beiden Subsystemen gelegt. Es kann eine Oszillation des gekoppelten Systems mit einer Periode von etwa 18 Jahren detektiert werden. Die Anomalie des Bodendrucks weist ihre maximale Amplitude östlich von Neufundland auf, während die Anomalie des 500 hPa Geopotentials leicht östlich dazu verschoben ist. Die Anomalie der SST zeigt ihre größte Variabilität südlich von Neufundland. Diese wird im wesentlichen durch die Temperaturadvektion in der oberen Ozeanschicht generiert, welche im wesentlichen an den subpolaren ozeanischen Wirbel sowie an das 'Ekman pumping' gekoppelt ist. Beide Prozesse werden durch die Atmosphäre angetrieben. In einer weiteren Analyse, in der die MSSA auf die SST und das 500 hPa Geopotential der gesamten nördlichen Hemisphäre angewandt wird, kann ebenfalls ein Oszillation von 18 Jahren detektiert werden. Diese Mode korreliert räumlich und zeitlich gut mit dem der lokalen Analyse über dem Nordatlantik, welches auf ein aktivere Rolle der Atmosphäre hinweist. Die starken Unterschiede der Amplitudenmodulation könnten durch lokale Prozesse bedingt sein.

<p>Kvantifikovanjem uticaja klimatskih promena na biljnu proizvodnju stiče se mogućnost obrazovanja dugoročnih planova u poljoprivrednoj proizvodnji kako bi se održao visok i stabilan prinos ključnih gajenih kutura (p&scaron;enice, kukuruz). Najpre su urađene analize klime i agroklimatskih pokazatelja za sada&scaron;nje uslove 1971-2000. i očekivane uslove za 2030. i 2050. godinu za 11 lokaliteta Republike Srbije. Tek nakon analize klime uzima se u obzir poznata činjenica da postoji međusobna interakcija između meteorolo&scaron;kih uslova, zemlji&scaron;ta i biljke. Na ovoj interakciji zasnivaju se modeli biljne proizvodnje i upotrebljavaju se u cilju kvantifikovanja uticaja klimatskih promena na biljnu proizvodnju tj. na dinamiku vegetacije i prinos.<br />U radu su kori&scaron;ćeni osmotreni dnevni meteorolo&scaron;ki podaci sa jedanaest stanica sakupljenih u Republičkom Hidrometeorolo&scaron;kom Zavodu Srbije. Za buduće stanje klime kori&scaron;ćeni su izlazni podaci globalnih klimatskih modela (ECHAM, HadCM, NCAR) i njihovom statističkom regionalizacijom Met &amp; Roll vremenskim generatorom dobijeni su podaci o budućem stanju klime na području jedanaest izabranih lokaliteta. Podaci o zemlji&scaron;tu (mehaničke i hemijske osobine) preuzeti su od Agencije za za&scaron;titu životne sredine iz Beograda. Ulazni podaci o biljnoj vrsti i njenoj agrotehnologiji, neophodni u radu sa modelom biljne proizvodnje (kalibraciji i validaciji), obezbeđeni su sa vi&scaron;egodi&scaron;njih ogleda zasnovanih na oglednim poljima Rimskih &Scaron;ančeva Insituta za ratarstvo i povrtarstvo u Novom Sadu.<br />Kao metod kori&scaron;ćeni su modeli za određivanje agroklimatskih parametara Agriclim i model biljne proizvodnje DSSAT v. 4.2.<br />4<br />Analizom buduće klime, temperature vazduha i padavina, utvrđeno je da se može očekivati porast temperature vazduha na godi&scaron;njem nivou i tokom svih delova vegetacinog perioda, a količina padavina se očekuje da bude vi&scaron;a tokom zimskog perioda, dok u prolećnom periodu (mart &ndash; april - maj) ne&scaron;to niža do 10 mm, a tokom letnjih meseci jun-jul-avgust značajno niža.<br />Analizom rezultata DSSAT 4.2 modela biljne proizvodnje, utvrđeno je da u očekivanim klimatskim uslovima 2030. i 2050. godine pri koncentraciji CO2 od 330 ppm prinos zrna ozime p&scaron;enice ostaje nepromenjen u većini lokaliteta izuzev Kru&scaron;evcu, Somboru i Vranju gde prinos opada do 12% u 2030. i do 11% u 2050. godini. Uzrok visokih i stabilnih prinosa su povećane količine padavina i povećanje temperature vazduha u zimskom periodu, manji broj mraznih i ledenih dana. Jedan od najvažnijih faktora stabilnosti prinosa je i dovoljna količina rezerve vlage u zemlji&scaron;tu za prolećni period i količina padavina za prolećni period, koji je u literaturi određen kao kritični period potrebe p&scaron;enice za vodom. U budućim uslovima analizom rezultata broja dana potrebnih od setve do cvetanja i od setve do zrelosti, ustanovljeno je da se očekuje manji broj dana, tj. da će fenofaze kraće trajati do cvetanja i zrelosti &scaron;to je posledica očekivanih vi&scaron;ih temperatura vazduha i suma efektivnih temperatura. U uslovima 2030. i 2050. godine i očekivane koncentracije CO2 po IPCC izve&scaron;taju iz 2007. godine, uticaj povi&scaron;ene koncentracije CO2 na prinos zrna p&scaron;enice je pozitivan. Prinosi kod većine lokaliteta ostaju nepromenjeni dok je mali pad prinosa zrna bio primećen na lokalitetima Kru&scaron;evac i Sombor, gde neznatno opada do 7% u 2030. godini i 2050. godini. U Somboru se očekuje nepromenjena količina padavina za mart &ndash; april - maj period i mnogo manja količina padavina u periodu jun &ndash; jul - avgust, a u Kru&scaron;evcu ne&scaron;to manja količina padavina u periodu mart &ndash; april &ndash; maj i do 40% manja količina u periodu jun &ndash; jul - avgust u 2050. godini.<br />Analizom rezultata prinosa zrna kukuruza za 2030. i 2050. godinu pri koncentracije CO2 od 330 ppm dobijen je veoma značajan pad prinosa i u uslovima bez navodnjavanja i u uslovima navodnjavanja normom od 180 mm za sve lokalitete. U 2030. i 2050. godini u uslovima povi&scaron;ene koncentracije CO2 uticaj očekivane koncentracije CO2 na prinos zrna kukuruza simulacijama ocenjen je kao negativan, jer je dobijeni prinos zrna kukuruza bio jo&scaron; niži nego pri koncentraciji CO2 od 330 ppm.<br />Veoma značajan pad prinosa posledica je vi&scaron;ih temperatura vazduha u JJA periodu, povećanja fiziolo&scaron;kog stresa kod biljaka usled povećanja broja letnjih i tropskih dana, značajno smanjenje količine padavina, posebno u periodu jun &ndash; jul &ndash; avgust i povećanje broja su&scaron;nih dana tokom istog perioda. Analizom dužine trajanja vegetativne sezone za oba režima uzgajanja kukuruza moglo se zapaziti da se u budućim uslovima očekuje skraćenje perioda vegetacije zbog vi&scaron;ih temperatura vazduha i sume temperatura. Analizom rezultata simulacije prinosa zrna soje za 2030. i 2050. godinu pri koncentraciji CO2 od 330 ppm, očekuje se nepromenjen prinos zrna u lokalitetima Ćuprija, Ni&scaron;, Vranje i Prizren, ili neznatno vi&scaron;i do 9 % u lokalitetima Kraljevo, Kru&scaron;evac, Novi Sad, Sombor i Zaječar. Samo u istočnom lokalitetu Dimitrovgrad i centralnom Požega se očekuje značajno vi&scaron;i prinos do 14% u 2030. godini i do 23% u 2050. godini. U 2030. i 2050. godini pri povi&scaron;enoj koncentracije CO2 po IPCC izve&scaron;taju iz 2007. godine očekuje se veoma značajno vi&scaron;i prinos u svim lokalitetima, a posebno je nagla&scaron;eno u lokalitetima Dimitrovgrad i Požega gde su dobijene najniže srednje temperature vazduha za AMJ i JJA period, najmanji broj letnjih i tropskih dana. Nakon dobijenih rezultata prinosa zrna za izabrane biljne kulture, rezultati prinosa zrna kukuruza ukazivali su na potrebu definisanja i uvođenja mera adaptacija u dosada&scaron;nju agrotehnologiju. DSSAT model biljne proizvodnje je izabran u istraživanju i kvantifikovanju mera adpatacija, jer se potrebe i fiziolo&scaron;ke reakcije biljke u simulacijama mogu pratiti na dnevnom nivou (Wang et al., 2011). Kao mere adaptacije analizirane su adaptacija roka setve i navodnjavanje. Adaptacija roka setve urađena je za kukuruz u uslovima bez navodnjavanja, da bi se ocenio isključivo uticaj primene ranijeg roka setve na prinos, a ne i navodnjavanje. Na osnovu analize<br />5<br />rezultata relativne promene prinosa za sve lokalitete, pokazalo se da se u uslovima ranijeg roka setve očekuju vi&scaron;i prinosi nego u uslovima uobičajenog datuma setve. Međutim, u svim lokalitetima i dalje se očekuje veoma značajan pad prinosa, izuzev u Dimitrovgradu, Vranju i Prizrenu, gde se očekuje značajan porast u odnosu na prinose perioda 1971-2000. godina.<br />Na osnovu analize rezultata simuliranih prinosa za ozimu p&scaron;enicu, kukuruz i soju, konstatovano je da se p&scaron;enica može proizvoditi u uslovima bez navodnjavanja, a prolećni usevi kukuruz i soja bi morali da se navodnjavaju zbog očekivanog velikog smanjenja količine padavina u letnjem periodu. Da bi se procenila adekvatna norma navodnjavanja u proizvodnji kukuruza u simulacijama u DSSAT modelu biljne proizvodnje izabrana je opcija 50 % dostupne vode biljci. Simulacije proizvodnje kukuruza u uslovima 50% dostupne vode biljci dale su pozitivne rezultate prinosa. Prinosi su bili nepromenjeni u lokalitetima Ćuprija, Kru&scaron;evac, Kraljevo, Ni&scaron;, Novi Sad, Sombor, Vranje, Zaječar u 2030. godini i 2050. godini izuzev u Kraljevu gde je prinos bio niži do 17% u 2050. godini. U lokalitetima Dimitrovgrad, Požega i Prizren prinos je bio vi&scaron;i oko 9% u 2030. godini i nepromenjen u 2050. godini. Uvećanje norme navodnjavanja je bilo veoma značajno na većini lokaliteta od 20% do 30% sa maksimumom u Požegi do 45% u 2030. i 84% u 2050. godini. Lokalitet Požega imao je zemlji&scaron;te tipa ilovasti fluvisol i izmeren visok procenat peska, iznad 50% u svom mehaničkom sastavu, &scaron;to je uslovilo i veću propusnost vode, njeno kraće zadržavanje u profilu zemlji&scaron;ta i potrebu za većom količinom vode u navodnjavanju. Simulacije prinosa soje odmah su urađene u uslovima navodnjavanja od 50% dostupne vode biljci, jer je opcija u uslovima bez navodnjavanja davala jako niske prinose, a opcija 50% dostupne vode je davala takve norme navodnjavanja koje su bile slične u na&scaron;im uslovima na Institutu za ratarstvo i povrtarstvoPri takvoj opciji navodnjavanja u svim lokalitetima norma navodnjavanja je u budućim uslovima veoma značajno rasla od 10 do 40% u 2030. godini i od 13 do 110% u 2050. godini, a rezultati relativne promene prinosa ukazivali su na veoma značajno povećanje prinosa u budućim&nbsp;uslovima.</p> / <p>DSSAT 4.0 is a crop model commonly used to quantify the climate change impact on agriculture production. The model predictions are very important for long term planning in agriculture to keep high and stable yield production. At the first, the climate was analysed for 1971-2000 period, 2030 and 2050 year. After these analyses the crop model was run. Crop model is based on interaction between climate, soil and plant. Simulations were predicted the yield and dynamic in vegetation for 2030 and 2050 climate conditions. As input parameters were used observed daily weather data from eleven weather stations for 1971-2000 period. For 2030 and 2050, the data were used from global climatology models ECHAM5, HadCM3 and NCAR-PCM for two scenarios A1B and A2. Before crop simulations, the out results from global climatology models had to be regionalised and downscaled with Met &amp; Roll weather generator. The soil input data were assumed from Agency for Environmental Safety from Belgrade. The data were consist of mechanical and chemical characteristics of soil which were chosen near the weather station. The crop input data were collected from the literature and personal communication of Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops and their long term period experiments. A current and future agroclimatic indices were calculated with Agriclim model. As a crop model, DSSAT v. 4.2. was chosen for crop simulations of major field crops: winter wheat, maize and soybean.<br />The results of climate shown that the air temperature should be higher in all vegetation phases, and precipitation should be higher during winter months, lower for 10 mm in spring and significantly lower in summer months June- July-August.<br />In 2030 and 2050 year (CO2=330 ppm) simulations shown that winter wheat yield might be the same as in 1971-2000 period in most locations except in Krusevac, Sombor and Vranje where yield might be lower for 12% in 2030 year and lower for 11% in 2050 year. It is a consequence of expected higher precipitation and higher air temperatures during winter period, less frosty and frozen days, higher precipitation during spring, which is a critical period for winter wheat production. It was analysed the dinamyc in vegetation in future<br />9<br />conditions. The results showed the shorter vegetation, less number of days from seeding to anthesis and seeding to maturity. These changes in vegetation duration were caused by expected higher air temperatures and higher effective temperatures.<br />The yield results were also analysed for expected conditions under future CO2 concentration from IPCC report 2007, and shown that winter wheat yields were not changed for most locations except in Krusevac and Sombor in 2030 and 2050 year.<br />The maize yield results for 2030 and 2050 under CO2 concentration of 330 ppm shown a significant decrease in yield in non irrigated conditiond and irrigated conditions with 180 mm water added per vegetation season. Also, the results given under expected CO2 concentration from IPCC Report 2007, shown great decrease in 2030 and 2050 and lower yield than under CO2 was set on 330 ppm. The significant decrease in yield was caused by expected higher temperatures in JJA period, higher physiologicaly stress caused by more days with extreme high temperatures (summer and tropical days) and very significant decrease in precipitation during JJA period. The results showed the shorter vegetation, less number of days from seeding to anthesis and seeding to maturity. These changes in vegetation duration were caused by expected higher air temperatures and higher effective temperatures.<br />The soybean yield analyses for 2030 and 2050 under CO2 concentration of 330 ppm shown no changes in yield for Cuprija, Nis, Vranje and Prizren, a little higher to 10% in Kraljevo, Krusevac, Novi Sad, Sombor, Zajecar and up to 24% higher in Dimitrovgrad and Pozega. In 2030 and 2050 under future CO2 concentrations from IPCC Report 2007, it is expected a significantly higher yield in all locations especially for Dimitrovgrad and Pozega, where the air temperatures were lowest in AMJ and JJA period. The results showed the shorter vegetation in soybean production, less number of days from seeding to anthesis and seeding to maturity. These changes in vegetation duration were caused by expected higher air temperatures and higher effective temperatures. After all simulations for winter wheat, maize and soybean, it is concluded that maize production need some adaptation measures for future conditions. As an adaptation measure it were chosen two measures: the shift in sowing date and irrigation quantity. The adaptation in sowing date was set for maize under non irrigated conditions, to analyse only the time of sowing not irrigation. The sowing date was set 15 days earlier, on the 5th of April. The yield results shown less decrease than results given at usual sowing date (20th of April), but in all locations the predicted yield decreased except in DM, VR and PR where the yield shown significant increase in a comparison with 1971-2000 yield. The change in irrigation quantity was more efficient for yield. It was done for maize production and soybean, because winter wheat irrigation was estimated as non economic. The irrigation method was set on 50% available water for plant. The maize yield was stable in Ćuprija, Kru&scaron;evac, Kraljevo, Ni&scaron;, Novi Sad, Sombor, Vranje, Zaječar in 2030 and 2050 year except in Kraljevo where the yield decreased up to 17% in 2050 year. In Dimitrovgrad, Požega and Prizren the yield was higher for 9% in 2030 year and not chaged in 2050 year. The water requirements had significantly higher values than in 1971-2000 period up to 20-30% in 2030 year with maximum in Požega up t 45% in 2030 year and 84% in 2050 year. The location Požega has soil with a high percent of sand in structure, above 50%, what caused quick water filtration and more water in irrigation. The soybean simulations were done in irrigation option of 50% available water at the begining, because the non irrigated method did not gave the satisfied yield results in crop model. The 50% irrigation method gave adequate yield and water requirements as in experiments on Institute. The water requirements had significantly higher values in 2030 year from 10-40% and from 13% to 110% in 2050 year than in 1971-2000 period.<br />Key words: climate change, CO2 fertilization, DSSAT v. 4.2. crop model, effective irrigation, maize yield, soybean yield, vegetation, winter wheat yield.</p>

<p>Главну&nbsp; тему&nbsp; рада представља анализа биоклиматских фактора на локалитетима<br />Златибора и Бање Ковиљаче уз помоћ два биоклиматска топлотна индекса PET&nbsp; -Физиолошки еквивалентне температуре и Универзалног топлотног климатског<br />индекса&nbsp; -UTCI. Анализирани су биоклиматски услови Златибора и Бање Ковиљаче<br />и приказани су коришћењем вредности на бази&nbsp; PET&nbsp; и UTCI, у десетодневним<br />интервалима током године. Осим Златибора и Бање Ковиљаче прикупљани су<br />подаци на још 47 тачака у Западној Србији.&nbsp; Прикупљени су сви неопходни<br />климатски подаци за израчунавање&nbsp; UTCI-a&nbsp; и&nbsp; PET-a. Добијени резултати су<br />упоређени са сличним истраживањима која су рађена у свету. Резултати мерења<br />UTCI&nbsp; и&nbsp; PET&nbsp; треба да имају већи значај у развоју туризма&nbsp; на Златибору и у Бањи<br />Ковиљачи односно генерално у Србији,&nbsp; као информација за туристе, али и за<br />туристичке раднике као показатељ у ком правцу треба развијати туристичке<br />дестинације и туристичку приведу.</p> / <p>Glavnu&nbsp; temu&nbsp; rada predstavlja analiza bioklimatskih faktora na lokalitetima<br />Zlatibora i Banje Koviljače uz pomoć dva bioklimatska toplotna indeksa PET&nbsp; -Fiziološki ekvivalentne temperature i Univerzalnog toplotnog klimatskog<br />indeksa&nbsp; -UTCI. Analizirani su bioklimatski uslovi Zlatibora i Banje Koviljače<br />i prikazani su korišćenjem vrednosti na bazi&nbsp; PET&nbsp; i UTCI, u desetodnevnim<br />intervalima tokom godine. Osim Zlatibora i Banje Koviljače prikupljani su<br />podaci na još 47 tačaka u Zapadnoj Srbiji.&nbsp; Prikupljeni su svi neophodni<br />klimatski podaci za izračunavanje&nbsp; UTCI-a&nbsp; i&nbsp; PET-a. Dobijeni rezultati su<br />upoređeni sa sličnim istraživanjima koja su rađena u svetu. Rezultati merenja<br />UTCI&nbsp; i&nbsp; PET&nbsp; treba da imaju veći značaj u razvoju turizma&nbsp; na Zlatiboru i u Banji<br />Koviljači odnosno generalno u Srbiji,&nbsp; kao informacija za turiste, ali i za<br />turističke radnike kao pokazatelj u kom pravcu treba razvijati turističke<br />destinacije i turističku privedu.</p> / <p>he&nbsp; main topic&nbsp; of the paper is the analysis of&nbsp; bioclimatological conditions&nbsp; on&nbsp; Zlatibor Mountain and in Banja Koviljaca with the help of two&nbsp; bioclimatological&nbsp; thermal indexes&nbsp; PET&nbsp; -Physiologically&nbsp; Equivalent&nbsp; Temperature&nbsp; and&nbsp; UTCI&nbsp; -&nbsp;&nbsp; Universal&nbsp; Thermal&nbsp; Climate Index. Bioclimatological conditions of&nbsp; Zlatibor and Banja Koviljaca&nbsp; were analyzed and they were presented by means of values based on PET and UTCI, in ten-day periods during the year. Apart from Zlatibor and Banja Koviljaca, the data were gathered on 47 points in West Serbia. All the climatological data&nbsp; necessary&nbsp; to calculate UTCI and PET were obtained. The results were compared with the similar research conducted around the world. The results of measuring UTCI and PET should have greater significance for the development of tourism on Zlatibor and in Banja Koviljaca, that is to say in Serbia in general, as information for tourists, but also for tourist workers as an indicator of the direction in which tourist destinations and tourist industry should develop.</p>

Diss. (sammanfattning) Umeå : Umeå universitet, 2010.

Satire erlaubt alles – so die Aussage einiger Comedians und Freunde des gepflegten Spöttelns. Doch wenn politisches Kabarett dazu beiträgt, Falschinformationen und Fehlinterpretationen zu verbreiten – darf Satire dann immer noch alles? Trägt nicht auch das politische Kabarett Verantwortung für eine adäquate Faktendarstellung anstelle einseitiger Politisierung? Satire blendet leider auch einige Fakten und Wirkbezüge in der Klimadebatte und den wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnissen aus. Dass diese Blindheit und Ignoranz nicht zwingend zuträglich für eine gesellschaftliche Entwicklung und die Aufgeklärtheit einer Gesellschaft sind, liegt auf der Hand – aller Freiheit politischer Satire zum Trotz. Auch wenn zu viel Informationen und Wissen, und erst recht ambigue und widersprüchliche Daten, zu Verwirrungen und häufig nicht zur Irritation der eigenen (festgefahrenen) Weltbilder führen können, soll dieser Beitrag die Vielfalt der Daten und Interpretationsspielräume aufzeigen und zu mehr factfulness in der Klimadiskussion motivieren. / Satire allows everything - so the statement of some comedians and friends of the cultivated mockery. But if political cabaret contributes to spreading misinformation and misinterpretations - is satire still allowed to do everything? Doesn't political cabaret also bear responsibility for an adequate presentation of facts instead of one-sided politicization? Unfortunately, satire also ignores some facts and causal relations in the climate debate and scientific knowledge. It is obvious that this blindness and ignorance is not necessarily conducive to social development and the enlightenment of a society - despite all the freedom of political satire. Even if too much information and knowledge, and even more so ambiguous and contradictory data, can lead to confusion and often not to the irritation of one's own (deadlocked) world views, this contribution is intended to show the diversity of data and scope for interpretation and motivate more factfulness in the climate debate.