Le littoral méditerranéen français est fréquemment affecté en automne par des épisodes de forte pluie. La région montagneuse des Cévennes – Vivarais (Massif Central) est une des régions affectées par ces épisodes de précipitations intenses (appelés Cévenols) qui peuvent provoquer des catastrophes naturelles entraînant des dommages économiques importants et des pertes de vies humaines. La prévision de tels épisodes par les modèles numériques de prévision du temps a été considérablement améliorée; cependant, des incertitudes en ce qui concerne leur intensité demeurent. L’amélioration des paramétrisations microphysiques dans ces modèles de prévision est un élément clé pour la réduction des erreurs. Le but de cette étude était de mieux comprendre les processus microphysiques qui régissent les épisodes de fortes précipitations et l’impact des particules d’aérosol atmosphériques sur ces précipitations en exploitant les observations du programme de recherche HYMEX et de la campagne de mesures associée qui s’est déroulée en 2012 dans le Sud de la France. L’étude s’est portée sur l’épisode de précipitation intense observé le 26 Sept. 2012 lors de la Période d’Observations Intenses (POI) 7a. Les observations disponibles ont été évaluées et comparées aux résultats de simulations effectuées avec le DEtailed SCAvenging Model (DESCAM, Flossmann and Wobrock; 2010) qui est un modèle tridimensionnelle utilisant un schéma bin pour représenter de manière détaillée la microphysique nuageuse ainsi que les interactions entre les particules d’aérosols et les nuages. Les observations utilisées ont été faites à partir d'instruments au sol et des mesures aéroportées in situ et permettent d'évaluer le modèle. Les observations au sol sont issues de radars en bande X, de Micro-Rain Radars (MRR), de disdromètres, mais également d’une réanalyse statistique des mesures de pluie par pluviomètres et radars opérationnels (Boudevillain et al. 2016). Les observations aéroportées in-situ ont été réalisées à l’aide de sondes microphysiques et du radar nuage RASTA embarqués à bord de l'avion de recherche français, le Falcon-20. Le rôle de la pollution sur le développement et l'évolution de l’épisode de précipitation intense du POI7a a été étudié en modifiant la concentration des particules d’aérosol à l’aide de spectres en aérosols observés lors de la campagne de mesures. Les résultats ont montré que la concentration initiale des particules d’aérosol influence la distribution spatiale et la quantité des précipitations, ainsi que le contenu vertical en eau de pluie et en eau glacée du système nuageux précipitant. Pour le cas étudié, une augmentation de la concentration initiale en nombre de particules d’aérosol diminue la quantité totale de pluie au sol. Enfin, une étude de sensibilité supplémentaire sur le choix du domaine de simulation a permis de montrer le rôle essentiel de la dynamique et de l’humidité des basses couches atmosphériques de grande échelle sur la représentation du système précipitant. / The French coastline in the Mediterranean Sea is affected by heavy rainfall episodes especially in autumn. Cévennes – Vivarais, which is part of the Massif Central Mountains, is one of the affected regions. The associated heavy precipitation episodes (HPE), namely “Cévenols”, can cause natural disasters with important economic damages and life losses. The prediction of such episodes by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models has been significantly improved; uncertainties remain though, regarding their occurrence and strength. The improvement of microphysical parameterizations in NWP models is one key-component for the reduction of forecast errors. The aim of this study was provide a better understanding of the microphysical processes that govern HPE and their interaction with atmospheric aerosol particles (APs) by exploiting observations from the HYMEX research program.The present study focused on the HPE from the HYMEX Intense Observation Period (IOP) 7a, whose observations were assessed and compared with modelling results from the bin-resolved microphysics scheme DEtailed SCAvenging Model (DESCAM, Flossmann and Wobrock; 2010) with 3D dynamics. This research model uses a detailed representation of the APs. Observations from ground-based instruments, as well as in-situ measurements were used for the evaluation of the model’s performance. The ground-based dataset consists of X-band Radars, Micro-Rain Radars (MRR), disdrometers, but also a rainfall reanalysis by rain gauges and operational radars (Boudevillain et al. 2016). Moreover, hydrometeor probes and the 95GHz cloud radar RASTA provided observations on-board of the French research aircraft Falcon-20.The role of pollution on the development and evolution of the HPE of IOP7a was investigated, as well. Considering that the highest AP concentrations were observed during IOP7a, the followed strategy was to perform model simulations by using less polluted observed AP spectra with lower total number concentrations. The results showed that the initial AP concentration influences the spatial distribution and quantity of rainfall, as well as the vertical properties of the rain water content and the ice water content of the precipitating cloud system. For the studied cases, with increasing the initial number concentration of APs, the total rain amount was decreased. Finally, the present study revealed a critical role of the model’s large-scale configuration necessary to correctly represent the dynamics.

Os sistemas convectivos da região Amazônica possuem características microfísicas peculiares, que variam de um caráter convectivo marítimo (estação chuvosa) a continental (estação de transição seca-chuvosa). Essas características modulam a eletrificação desses sistemas, porém ainda não se sabe quais são os processos dominantes que intensificam o número de descargas elétricas de uma estação para outra: efeito dos aerossóis, termodinâmico, grande-escala ou topografia? Para responder à essa pergunta, o objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar e quantificar a importância de cada um desses efeitos na eletrificação dos sistemas convectivos da Amazônia. A metodologia foi baseada em análises de dados observacionais do experimento de campo DRYTOWET e em um modelo numérico com parametrizações de transferências de cargas e descargas elétricas. A análise do ciclo anual das descargas elétricas do tipo nuvem-solo (CGs) mostrou que a atividade elétrica dos sistemas precipitantes da região sudoeste da Amazônia aumenta durante a transição da estação seca para a estação chuvosa (Agosto a Setembro), associada aos sistemas convectivos com maior desenvolvimento vertical que acontecem nesse período. Com o estabelecimento da estação chuvosa (Novembro a Março), o número de CGs diminui porém a atividade elétrica ainda se mantêm. A porcentagem desses totais de CGs que tinham polaridade positiva (+CGs) tem média de 12% durante todo o ano, aumentando drasticamente para até 25% em Setembro, durante a transição entre as estações secas e chuvosa. Esse aumento da %+CGs ocorreu simultaneamente ao aumento da poluição atmosférica provocada pela queima de biomassa das pastagens realizada pelos fazendeiros locais, que as preparam para a agricultura e pecuária durante o início das primeiras chuvas. Por outro lado, o aumento da %+CGs das tempestades também ocorreu preferencialmente sobre a área de pastagem do estado de Rondônia. Através da análise de dados de radar dos sistemas precipitantes que ocorreram durante o experimento DRYTOWET, foi constatado que as tempestades positivas (tempestades que produzem mais de 50% de +CGs em 50% de seu tempo de vida) se formaram em ambientes mais secos e com alturas do nível de convecção por levantamento (NCL, altura da base da nuvem) maiores do que as demais tempestades (tempestades negativas), durante todo o experimento mas com maiores diferenças durante o final da estação seca (Setembro-Outubro). Com altura da base da nuvem mais elevada, a espessura da camada quente (ECQ - base da nuvem até a isoterma de 0oC) diminui, aumentando assim a velocidade das correntes ascendentes através de um melhor processamento da energia potencial disponível para convecção (CAPE) devido a um menor entranhamento. O aumento da velocidade das correntes ascendentes dentro da nuvem resulta em tempestades mais profundas e mais intensas. O efeito do aumento do NCL é uma característica das regiões com vegetação de pastagem, onde a razão entre o calor sensível e latente na superfície é maior do que as áreas florestadas, aumentando a altura da camada limite planetária. As diferenças de concentração total e distribuição de tamanho dos aerossóis devido ao aumento da poluição durante a transição entre as estações seca e chuvosa não foram conclusivas quanto a um possível efeito na distribuição de hidrometeoros das tempestade positivas e negativas, uma vez que o ciclo diurno da concentração dos aerossóis acompanha o ciclo diurno da camada limite planetária, que também regula o efeito da ECQ. Simulações numéricas com um modelo 1D de nuvem, acoplado à parametrizações de transferências de cargas elétricas entre hidrometeoros e raios, mostraram que a estrutura termodinâmica da atmosfera foi a maior responsável pela eletrificação das tempestades simuladas, aumentando a velocidade das correntes ascendentes. O efeito do aumento do número de aerossóis, que inibe da fase quente da nuvem e conseqüentemente fortalece a da fase fria da nuvem fornecendo mais vapor e gotículas de nuvem para essa região, provocou a diminuição da quantidade de granizo nas tempestades simuladas e o aumento de partículas agregadas menores, como os flocos de neve e graupel, diminuindo a freqüência de raios. / Amazonian convective systems have unique microphysical characteristics, varying from a maritime convective behavior (rainy season) to a continental behavior (wet-dry transition season). These characteristics modulate the electrification of these systems, however it is still not well understood which are the dominant processes that intensify the frequency of lightning from one season to another: aerosol effect, thermodynamics, large-scale variability, landscape or topography? To answer this question, the objective of this study was to identify and quantify the importance of each one of these effects on the electrification of convective systems over the Amazon. The methodology was based on the analysis of observational data from the field experiment DRYTOWET and a numerical model with charge transfer parameterizations and lightning discharges. The cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharges annual cycle presented that the electrical activity of the southwestern Amazonian precipitating systems increased during the transition between the dry and wet seasons (August to September), in association with the convective systems deepening. With the establishment of the wet season (November to March), the number of CGs decreased but the electrical activity continued. The mean annual percentage of cloud-to-ground lightning of positive polarity (+CGs) was 12%, increasing drastically to 25% in September during the transition between the dry and wet seasons. This percentage of +CGs raise happened simultaneously with the increase in the atmospheric pollution due to the pasture biomass burning, held by local farmers to prepare the soil for agriculture and livestock during the begging of first rains. On the other hand, the increase in %+CGs also occurred preferentially over pasture areas of Rondonia state. Through the analysis of radar precipitating systems that occurred during the field campaign DRYTOWET, it was noted that positive thunderstorms (storms that produced more than 50% of +CGs over 50% of their life time) were initiated in drier and higher lift condensation levels (cloud base height) environments than other storms (negative thunderstorms) during all the field experiment, especially in the end of the dry season (September-October). A higher cloud base height is associated with a shallower warm cloud depth (cloud base height to the 0oC isotherm) and consequently less entrainment, increasing the updrafts due to a more efficient processing of the convective available potential energy (CAPE). This increase in updrafts inside the clouds results in deeper and stronger thunderstorms. The higher cloud base heights is a characteristic from pasture regions, where the ratio between sensible and latent heats at surface is greater than forested areas, which increases the top of the planetary boundary layer. The differences in the aerosol total concentration and size distribution, due to the increase in the atmospheric pollution during the transition between the dry and wet seasons, were inconclusive in a possible aerosol effect in the strength of positive and negative thunderstorms, once the aerosol concentration diurnal cycle follows the cycle of the planetary boundary layer, that also regulates the warm cloud depth effect. Numerical simulation of an 1D cloud model, coupled with charge transfer between the hydrometeors, showed that the thermodynamic structure was the main responsible feature for cloud electrification, increasing the updraft velocities. The pollution effect was masked in simulations, which inhibit the warm precipitation and consequently strength the the mixed and cold regions of the cloud, was responsible for an increase in the number of smaller aggregated particles, like snow flakes and graupel, decreasing the electrification and lightning frequency.

Tempestades severas ocorrem na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) principalmente nos meses quentes e úmidos do ano. Nesta tese, os mecanismos de disparo da convecção profunda são estudados por meio de análises observacionais e simulações numéricas com o Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). A metodologia proposta compreende o uso da parametrização microfísica fria na simulação dos processos físicos que levam à formação de nuvens cumulonimbus, sem o uso da parametrização de cúmulos nas grades de altíssima resolução espacial. Nos eventos estudados, as primeiras células de precipitação observadas e simuladas surgiram em razão da interação entre o escoamento atmosférico na camada limite planetária e a topografia local. As células secundárias foram geralmente mais intensas, uma vez que elas surgiram após o aquecimento diabático adicional. O mecanismo de disparo das células secundárias foi a corrente ascendente induzida pela propagação horizontal das frentes de rajada em baixos níveis da atmosfera das correntes descendentes das células primárias. As frentes de rajada tiveram velocidade de propagação horizontal típica de 6 m s-1. No evento de 02 de fevereiro de 2004, células convectivas profundas foram simuladas com alto grau de realismo no domínio da grade de 3 km de resolução espacial. Observou-se que, neste caso, a frente de brisa marítima pôde atuar como guia de ondas para a colisão entre duas frentes de rajada. A propagação da frente de brisa marítima para o interior do continente ocorreu em conjunção a um forte gradiente de vapor dágua nos níveis mais baixos da troposfera. As células convectivas profundas secundárias surgiram e se desenvolveram exatamente nesta zona de interface, a qual representa o contraste entre as diferentes massas de ar marítima e continental. No evento de 04 de fevereiro de 2004, na grade de 1 km de resolução, a análise objetiva com as medidas das estações de superfície na RMSP correspondente às 1800 UTC indicou a presença de uma ilha de calor urbana com até 4 oC de aquecimento diferencial entre a Capital e vizinhanças. O principal efeito da assimilação destas medidas foi a redução do NCL em até 80 hPa, o que favoreceu o disparo da convecção naquela área. / Severe thunderstorms occur in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) mainly in the warm and wet months of the year. In this work, the triggering mechanisms of deep convection are studied through observed data and numerical simulations with the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). The proposed methodology focuses in the use of microphysics parameterization of cold clouds to simulate physical process linked to the life cycle of thunderstorms. The cumulus cloud parameterization isnt used in high resolution numerical grids. In the real case studies, both observed and simulated, early convective cells developed as a consequence of the interaction between the planetary boundary layer atmospheric flow and the local topography. The secondary convective cells were generally strongest, once they developed after additional surface diabatic heating. The triggering mechanism of these secondary cells was the updraft induced by gust fronts generated by downdrafts of primary cells. The gust fronts had a typical horizontal propagation velocity of 6 m s-1. In the February 02 2004 event, deep convective cells were simulated with high degree of realism with a 3 km resolution grid. It was observed that, in this case, the sea-breeze front could act as a wave guide to the collision between two different gust fronts. In addition, the sea breeze front propagated to the continental area together with a strong low level water vapor gradient. The secondary deep convective cells arose and developed exactly on this interface zone, which represents the contrast between the oceanic and continental air masses. The interface zone was marked by a water vapor mixing rate of 14 g kg-1. In the February 04 2004 event, the objective analysis, made with some MASP´s surface stations measurements at 1800 UTC in the 1 km resolution grid, indicates the presence of an urban heat island with up to 4 oC of differential heating between São Paulo city and its neighboring area. The main effect in assimilating these surface measurements was the lowering of the lift condensation level up to 80 hPa, which favored the triggering of convection in that area.

Os sistemas convectivos da região Amazônica possuem características microfísicas peculiares, que variam de um caráter convectivo marítimo (estação chuvosa) a continental (estação de transição seca-chuvosa). Essas características modulam a eletrificação desses sistemas, porém ainda não se sabe quais são os processos dominantes que intensificam o número de descargas elétricas de uma estação para outra: efeito dos aerossóis, termodinâmico, grande-escala ou topografia? Para responder à essa pergunta, o objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar e quantificar a importância de cada um desses efeitos na eletrificação dos sistemas convectivos da Amazônia. A metodologia foi baseada em análises de dados observacionais do experimento de campo DRYTOWET e em um modelo numérico com parametrizações de transferências de cargas e descargas elétricas. A análise do ciclo anual das descargas elétricas do tipo nuvem-solo (CGs) mostrou que a atividade elétrica dos sistemas precipitantes da região sudoeste da Amazônia aumenta durante a transição da estação seca para a estação chuvosa (Agosto a Setembro), associada aos sistemas convectivos com maior desenvolvimento vertical que acontecem nesse período. Com o estabelecimento da estação chuvosa (Novembro a Março), o número de CGs diminui porém a atividade elétrica ainda se mantêm. A porcentagem desses totais de CGs que tinham polaridade positiva (+CGs) tem média de 12% durante todo o ano, aumentando drasticamente para até 25% em Setembro, durante a transição entre as estações secas e chuvosa. Esse aumento da %+CGs ocorreu simultaneamente ao aumento da poluição atmosférica provocada pela queima de biomassa das pastagens realizada pelos fazendeiros locais, que as preparam para a agricultura e pecuária durante o início das primeiras chuvas. Por outro lado, o aumento da %+CGs das tempestades também ocorreu preferencialmente sobre a área de pastagem do estado de Rondônia. Através da análise de dados de radar dos sistemas precipitantes que ocorreram durante o experimento DRYTOWET, foi constatado que as tempestades positivas (tempestades que produzem mais de 50% de +CGs em 50% de seu tempo de vida) se formaram em ambientes mais secos e com alturas do nível de convecção por levantamento (NCL, altura da base da nuvem) maiores do que as demais tempestades (tempestades negativas), durante todo o experimento mas com maiores diferenças durante o final da estação seca (Setembro-Outubro). Com altura da base da nuvem mais elevada, a espessura da camada quente (ECQ - base da nuvem até a isoterma de 0oC) diminui, aumentando assim a velocidade das correntes ascendentes através de um melhor processamento da energia potencial disponível para convecção (CAPE) devido a um menor entranhamento. O aumento da velocidade das correntes ascendentes dentro da nuvem resulta em tempestades mais profundas e mais intensas. O efeito do aumento do NCL é uma característica das regiões com vegetação de pastagem, onde a razão entre o calor sensível e latente na superfície é maior do que as áreas florestadas, aumentando a altura da camada limite planetária. As diferenças de concentração total e distribuição de tamanho dos aerossóis devido ao aumento da poluição durante a transição entre as estações seca e chuvosa não foram conclusivas quanto a um possível efeito na distribuição de hidrometeoros das tempestade positivas e negativas, uma vez que o ciclo diurno da concentração dos aerossóis acompanha o ciclo diurno da camada limite planetária, que também regula o efeito da ECQ. Simulações numéricas com um modelo 1D de nuvem, acoplado à parametrizações de transferências de cargas elétricas entre hidrometeoros e raios, mostraram que a estrutura termodinâmica da atmosfera foi a maior responsável pela eletrificação das tempestades simuladas, aumentando a velocidade das correntes ascendentes. O efeito do aumento do número de aerossóis, que inibe da fase quente da nuvem e conseqüentemente fortalece a da fase fria da nuvem fornecendo mais vapor e gotículas de nuvem para essa região, provocou a diminuição da quantidade de granizo nas tempestades simuladas e o aumento de partículas agregadas menores, como os flocos de neve e graupel, diminuindo a freqüência de raios. / Amazonian convective systems have unique microphysical characteristics, varying from a maritime convective behavior (rainy season) to a continental behavior (wet-dry transition season). These characteristics modulate the electrification of these systems, however it is still not well understood which are the dominant processes that intensify the frequency of lightning from one season to another: aerosol effect, thermodynamics, large-scale variability, landscape or topography? To answer this question, the objective of this study was to identify and quantify the importance of each one of these effects on the electrification of convective systems over the Amazon. The methodology was based on the analysis of observational data from the field experiment DRYTOWET and a numerical model with charge transfer parameterizations and lightning discharges. The cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharges annual cycle presented that the electrical activity of the southwestern Amazonian precipitating systems increased during the transition between the dry and wet seasons (August to September), in association with the convective systems deepening. With the establishment of the wet season (November to March), the number of CGs decreased but the electrical activity continued. The mean annual percentage of cloud-to-ground lightning of positive polarity (+CGs) was 12%, increasing drastically to 25% in September during the transition between the dry and wet seasons. This percentage of +CGs raise happened simultaneously with the increase in the atmospheric pollution due to the pasture biomass burning, held by local farmers to prepare the soil for agriculture and livestock during the begging of first rains. On the other hand, the increase in %+CGs also occurred preferentially over pasture areas of Rondonia state. Through the analysis of radar precipitating systems that occurred during the field campaign DRYTOWET, it was noted that positive thunderstorms (storms that produced more than 50% of +CGs over 50% of their life time) were initiated in drier and higher lift condensation levels (cloud base height) environments than other storms (negative thunderstorms) during all the field experiment, especially in the end of the dry season (September-October). A higher cloud base height is associated with a shallower warm cloud depth (cloud base height to the 0oC isotherm) and consequently less entrainment, increasing the updrafts due to a more efficient processing of the convective available potential energy (CAPE). This increase in updrafts inside the clouds results in deeper and stronger thunderstorms. The higher cloud base heights is a characteristic from pasture regions, where the ratio between sensible and latent heats at surface is greater than forested areas, which increases the top of the planetary boundary layer. The differences in the aerosol total concentration and size distribution, due to the increase in the atmospheric pollution during the transition between the dry and wet seasons, were inconclusive in a possible aerosol effect in the strength of positive and negative thunderstorms, once the aerosol concentration diurnal cycle follows the cycle of the planetary boundary layer, that also regulates the warm cloud depth effect. Numerical simulation of an 1D cloud model, coupled with charge transfer between the hydrometeors, showed that the thermodynamic structure was the main responsible feature for cloud electrification, increasing the updraft velocities. The pollution effect was masked in simulations, which inhibit the warm precipitation and consequently strength the the mixed and cold regions of the cloud, was responsible for an increase in the number of smaller aggregated particles, like snow flakes and graupel, decreasing the electrification and lightning frequency.

Tempestades severas ocorrem na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) principalmente nos meses quentes e úmidos do ano. Nesta tese, os mecanismos de disparo da convecção profunda são estudados por meio de análises observacionais e simulações numéricas com o Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). A metodologia proposta compreende o uso da parametrização microfísica fria na simulação dos processos físicos que levam à formação de nuvens cumulonimbus, sem o uso da parametrização de cúmulos nas grades de altíssima resolução espacial. Nos eventos estudados, as primeiras células de precipitação observadas e simuladas surgiram em razão da interação entre o escoamento atmosférico na camada limite planetária e a topografia local. As células secundárias foram geralmente mais intensas, uma vez que elas surgiram após o aquecimento diabático adicional. O mecanismo de disparo das células secundárias foi a corrente ascendente induzida pela propagação horizontal das frentes de rajada em baixos níveis da atmosfera das correntes descendentes das células primárias. As frentes de rajada tiveram velocidade de propagação horizontal típica de 6 m s-1. No evento de 02 de fevereiro de 2004, células convectivas profundas foram simuladas com alto grau de realismo no domínio da grade de 3 km de resolução espacial. Observou-se que, neste caso, a frente de brisa marítima pôde atuar como guia de ondas para a colisão entre duas frentes de rajada. A propagação da frente de brisa marítima para o interior do continente ocorreu em conjunção a um forte gradiente de vapor dágua nos níveis mais baixos da troposfera. As células convectivas profundas secundárias surgiram e se desenvolveram exatamente nesta zona de interface, a qual representa o contraste entre as diferentes massas de ar marítima e continental. No evento de 04 de fevereiro de 2004, na grade de 1 km de resolução, a análise objetiva com as medidas das estações de superfície na RMSP correspondente às 1800 UTC indicou a presença de uma ilha de calor urbana com até 4 oC de aquecimento diferencial entre a Capital e vizinhanças. O principal efeito da assimilação destas medidas foi a redução do NCL em até 80 hPa, o que favoreceu o disparo da convecção naquela área. / Severe thunderstorms occur in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) mainly in the warm and wet months of the year. In this work, the triggering mechanisms of deep convection are studied through observed data and numerical simulations with the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). The proposed methodology focuses in the use of microphysics parameterization of cold clouds to simulate physical process linked to the life cycle of thunderstorms. The cumulus cloud parameterization isnt used in high resolution numerical grids. In the real case studies, both observed and simulated, early convective cells developed as a consequence of the interaction between the planetary boundary layer atmospheric flow and the local topography. The secondary convective cells were generally strongest, once they developed after additional surface diabatic heating. The triggering mechanism of these secondary cells was the updraft induced by gust fronts generated by downdrafts of primary cells. The gust fronts had a typical horizontal propagation velocity of 6 m s-1. In the February 02 2004 event, deep convective cells were simulated with high degree of realism with a 3 km resolution grid. It was observed that, in this case, the sea-breeze front could act as a wave guide to the collision between two different gust fronts. In addition, the sea breeze front propagated to the continental area together with a strong low level water vapor gradient. The secondary deep convective cells arose and developed exactly on this interface zone, which represents the contrast between the oceanic and continental air masses. The interface zone was marked by a water vapor mixing rate of 14 g kg-1. In the February 04 2004 event, the objective analysis, made with some MASP´s surface stations measurements at 1800 UTC in the 1 km resolution grid, indicates the presence of an urban heat island with up to 4 oC of differential heating between São Paulo city and its neighboring area. The main effect in assimilating these surface measurements was the lowering of the lift condensation level up to 80 hPa, which favored the triggering of convection in that area.

La prévision quantitative des précipitations à l’aide des modèles météorologiques reste encore un grand défi posé à la communauté des sciences atmosphériques. En effet, deux problèmes majeurs sont généralement identifiés pour la prévision opérationnelle des précipitations et du climat : les interactions des systèmes précipitants avec le relief et avec la pollution. Cette thèse contribue à l’amélioration des prévisions de pluies. La stratégie adoptée est d’étudier des évènements précipitants en zones montagneuses en décrivant au mieux les interactions aérosol-nuage-précipitation à l’aide du modèle à microphysique mixte détaillée : DEtailed SCAvenging Model (DESCAM, Flossmann et Wobrock (2010)). Ce modèle utilise cinq distributions pour représenter les particules d’aérosol résiduelles et interstitielles ainsi que les gouttes et cristaux de glace. Le modèle a directement été comparé aux observations réalisées au cours de la campagne expérimentale COPS (Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study), qui a eu lieu pendant l’été 2007 à la frontière franco-allemande. En particulier, les simulations des pluies ont été comparées avec des observations de différents radars afin d’évaluer les performances du modèle mais aussi d’aider à l’interprétation des réflectivités de la bande brillante. La sensibilité par rapport à la pollution particulaire a été étudiée pour les propriétés des nuages et des précipitations. Pour les cas étudiés, plus le nombre des particules d’aérosol présentes dans l’atmosphère est important et plus leur solubilité est élevée, plus les précipitations au sol sont faibles. Ces comportements globaux peuvent toutefois être localement différents. Il existe donc des interactions plus complexes entre les particules d’aérosol, les nuages et les précipitations qui doivent être encore plus approfondies. / The quantitative precipitation forecast is still an important challenge for the atmospheric community. Indeed, two main problems are generally identified for weather and climate models : the interactions of the cloud systems with the topography and with pollution. This work contributes towards the improvement of the precipitation forecasts. The strategy used was to study the convective system over an area with a complex topography using the detailed microphysics scheme DEtailed SCAvenging Model (DESCAM, Flossmann and Wobrock (2010)) to better describe the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. This microphysical scheme follows the evolution of the aerosol particle, drop and ice crystal distributions. Aerosol mass in drops and ice crystals is predicted by two distributions functions in order to close the aerosol budget. The model simulation results are compared with observations from COPS campaign (Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study), which took place at the French-German boarder during summer 2007. Rain simulations were compared with available radar data to evaluate the model’s performances and help the interpretation of the radar reflectivity in the bright band level. Sensitivity with respect to the particulate pollution was studied for in-cloud and precipitation properties. For the cases studied, the higher the aerosol particle number in the atmosphere or the higher the solubility of the aerosol particles, the weakest are the precipitation at the ground. These global behaviours of precipitation on the ground could be locally different. Consequently, the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions are complex and more in-depth studies are necessary.

La formation des systèmes convectifs est un processus complexe qui s'étend de l'échelle synoptique, avec la mise en place de circulations favorisant la convection, à la micro-échelle, avec les processus de formation et de croissance des hydrométéores. C'est aux échelles les plus fines que se concentre cette thèse dont l'objectif est d'étudier l'apport d'une microphysique complexe sur l'occurrence et la morphologie d'évènements fortement précipitants. La microphysique évaluée est celle du schéma LIMA, de type bulk à deux moments, capable de prendre en compte l'évolution d'une population d'aérosols multimodale et le traitement pronostique de son interaction avec les nuages et les précipitations. Dans un premier temps, l'apport de la microphysique de LIMA est évalué en comparaison à la microphysique bulk à un moment du schéma ICE3, moins sophistiqué et actuellement opérationnel à Météo-France dans le modèle AROME. Afin de mesurer l'apport de ce nouveau schéma sur la simulation de cas fortement précipitants tels que ceux qui touchent régulièrement le sud-est de la France à l'automne, deux cas d'étude de la campagne HyMeX ont été simulés avec Meso-NH et comparés aux nombreuses observations disponibles. Si l'évaluation des cumuls de précipitations montre un impact modéré de l'un ou l'autre des schémas microphysiques, l'écart est plus marqué en terme de composition et de structure des systèmes convectifs : la microphysique à 2 moments développe une structure verticale plus réaliste et introduit plus de variabilité sur les champs microphysiques. L'évaluation a aussi identifié des biais dans le schéma, notamment une surestimation des diamètres de gouttes de pluie. Des pistes d'amélioration de la microphysique de LIMA ont alors été proposées et évaluées sur les mêmes cas. Des tests de sensibilité à l'initialisation de la population d'aérosols ont ensuite été menés. Il s'avère que les aérosols n'affectent pas uniquement les hydrométéores primaires (gouttelettes d'eau nuageuse et cristaux de glace) mais aussi les autres hydrométéores, engendrant des impacts sur le développement des systèmes convectifs simulés, en termes de composition nuageuse et de précipitations. Les simulations avec une population d'aérosols réaliste initialisée à partir des analyses CAMS ont montré un impact modéré sur les cumuls de précipitations mais une amélioration plus significative de l'évolution temporelle du système (intensification, dissipation) et de la composition nuageuse, réduisant le diamètre des gouttes de pluie sur les cas d'étude. / The triggering and growth of Convective systems is a complex process that extends from the synoptic scale, with the establishment of atmospheric circulations promoting convection, to the microscale, with the formation and growth processes of hydrometeors. This PhD focuses on these finest scales and investigates the contribution of complex cloud-microphysics to the occurrence and morphology of heavy precipitation events. The two-moment microphysical scheme LIMA evaluated in this study takes into account the evolution of a multimodal aerosol population and the prognostic treatment of its interaction with liquid and ice clouds and precipitation. First, the contribution of LIMA is evaluated in comparison to the ICE3 one-moment bulk microphysical scheme, which is less sophisticated and currently operational in the AROME model at Météo-France. In order to measure the performance of this new scheme, two case studies of the HyMeX campaign were simulated with the Meso-NH model and compared to a wide variety of available measurements. The assessment of cumulative precipitation shows a moderate impact of each of these microphysical schemes, but the difference is more pronounced in terms of convective systems composition and structure: the two moment microphysics develops a more realistic vertical structure and introduces more microphysical variability. The evaluation also identified biases in the scheme (such as an overestimation of rain drop diameters). Some improvements to the implementation of LIMA were proposed and evaluated on the same cases. Then, the scheme is used to perform a sensitivity test to the aerosol population on the same case studies. Tests on the concentration of idealized populations have shown that aerosols do not only affect primary production of cloud droplets and ice crystals but also precipitating hydrometeors, causing impacts on the development of simulated convective systems in terms of cloud composition and generated precipitation. Simulations based on a realistic aerosol population initialized from CAMS analyses also showed a moderate impact on cumulative precipitation, but a more significant improvement on the temporal evolution of the system (intensification, dissipation) and cloud composition, leading to a reduction of rain drop diameters in the studied cases.

Les particules d’aérosol sont une composante essentielle de l’atmosphère, et cette importance s’amplifie lors d’une éventuelle libération dans l’atmosphère de matières radioactives sous forme particulaire. En effet, pour améliorer la connaissance autour de la contamination des sols consécutive à une émission de particules, il est important d’étudier le rabattement des particules par la pluie sous le nuage. Dans ce but, des expériences sont menées à l’échelle microphysique (expérience BERGAME) pour quantifier l’efficacité des gouttes de pluie à collecter les particules. Ceci permet au final d’améliorer la modélisation du lessivage des aérosols atmosphériques par la pluie à méso-échelle. Le modèle utilisé est DESCAM qui décrit de manière détaillée les distributions granulométriques en masse et en nombre des particules pour chaque type d’aérosol et des hydrométéores et calcule leur évolution due aux processus microphysiques nuageux. L’expérience BERGAME a été dimensionnée et construite pour mesurer l’efficacité de collecte car les mesures de ce paramètre se sont avérées en désaccord avec les modèles classiques de la littérature pour les gouttes de pluie d’un diamètre supérieur au millimètre. Un montage optique a été imaginé pour tenter de comprendre quels mécanismes de collecte sont négligés dans les modèles standards. Un nouveau modèle d’efficacité de collecte pour les gouttes d’un diamètre de 2 mm est alors proposé prenant en compte pour les grosses gouttes une recirculation turbulente dans le sillage de la goutte capable d’augmenter de façon importante la capture des petites particules. Les nouvelles efficacités de collecte ainsi mesurées et paramétrées sont ajoutées au modèle de nuage DESCAM. Des modifications significatives sur la modélisation du lessivage par DESCAM sont observées, ouvrant ainsi la voie à une amélioration de la modélisation de la contamination des sols par les modèles de dispersion atmosphérique. / Aerosol particles are an important component of the atmosphere and are of great concern in the case of an accidental release of radioactive particles. To better understand ground contamination due to a particle release in the vicinity of an accident, it is important to study the particle scavenging associated with rain. To achieve this objective during this thesis, an experiment at the microphysical scale (BERGAME experiment) was developed and the modelling of the washout was improved at mesoscale. The model used was DESCAM : a microphysics model that describes the bin size distributions for aerosol particles and hydrometeors and calculates their evolution due to microphysical cloud processes. The BERGAME experiment was designed and built to measure the collection efficiencies which disagree with theoretical calculation. Using an optical method, it was shown that those discrepancies were due to rear capture. A new model of collection efficiencies for the 2 mm drops was proposed that takes into account for big raindrops the turbulent circulation occurring downstream increasing significantly the capture of small particles. The corrected collection efficiencies were implemented in the DESCAM model. By this way, significant modifications of the modelling were observed and studied. This is an important step toward an accurate modelling of the ground contamination in atmospheric dispersion models.

L’étude des propriétés et processus microphysiques caractérisant la phase glace permet de mieux définir le rôle des nuages dans le cycle de l’eau et sur bilan radiatif de l’atmosphère. Les modèles atmosphériques et les codes d’inversion des données de télédétection utilisent des paramétrisations établies à partir de mesures in situ. Ces mesures servent également des besoins industriels en lien avec la problématique du givrage en aéronautique. L’étude présentée se base sur les données de deux campagnes aéroportées réalisées dans le cadre de la collaboration internationale HAIC-HIWC, ciblant les zones à fort contenu en glace que l’on peut observe rau sein des systèmes convectifs à méso-échelle (MCS) tropicaux. Sur la question des relations « masse-diamètre » (m - D) d’abord, une nouvelle approche est présentée. Basée sur la résolution d’un problème inverse, elle permet de restituer la masse des cristaux à partir de mesures colocalisées classiques en s’affranchissant de la traditionnelle hypothèse de loi puissance, et montre que cette dernière ne permet pas de représenter correctement les propriétés massiques de populations de cristaux hétérogènes (morphologie et tailles différentes) typiques des MCS. La variabilité horizontale des distributions de tailles permet d’étudier le vieillissement de l’enclume d’un point de vue microphysique et de souligner le rôle essentiel du processus d’agrégation dans l’élimination des petits cristaux apportés dans la haute troposphère par la convection profonde et dans la formation d’agrégats supra-millimétriques, précurseurs glacés des précipitations stratiformes. Les relations m - D restituées permettent d’identifier des régimes microphysiques distincts et ouvre la voie aux développement d’une paramétrisation de la masse volumique des hydrométéores en fonction de critères environnementaux. / The detailed characterization of ice cloud microphysics is key to understand their role in theEarth’s hydrological cycle and radiation budget. The developement of atmospheric models and remote sensingalgorithms relies on parametrisations derived from in situ measurements. These measurements are also usedby the aviation industry to handle the problem of ice crystal icing. This PhD work presents an analysis of themass and size properties of ice crystals observed in high ice water content areas embedded in tropical mesoscaleconvective systems (MCS) during two airborne field campaigns of the HAIC-HIWC international project.A new approach is developped to derive mass-size relationships (m - D) from size distributions and icewater contents. The retrieval is formulated as an inverse problem which waives the power law constraint, aclassical assumption that proves to be an oversimplification when applied to heterogeneous populations of iceparticules typical of MCS anvils.The horizontal variability of size distributions and the aging of MCS anvils is described in terms of microphysicalprocesses. The importance of the aggregation growth process is emphasized as it efficiently removessmall ice particles brought into the upper troposphere by deep convection and significantly contributes to theformation of large agregates, precusor of the stratiform precipitations. The analysis of mass properties revealsthat distinctive microphysical regimes may be identified from the m-D relationship retrieved in various conditions.It paves the way toward a statistical model of the effective density of ice particles as a function of environmentalparameters.

Die komplexen Interaktionen von Aerosolen, Wolken und Niederschlag werden in aktuellen Vorhersagemodellen nur ungenügend dargestellt. Simulationen mit spektraler Beschreibung von Wolkenprozessen können zu verbesserten Vorhersagen beitragen, sind jedoch weitaus rechenintensiver. Die Beschleunigung dieser Simulationen erfordert eine hochparallele Ausführung. In dieser Arbeit wird ein Konzept zur Kopplung spektraler Wolkenmikrophysikmodelle mit atmosphärischen Modellen entwickelt, das eine effiziente Nutzung der heute verfügbaren Parallelität der Größenordnung von 100.000 Prozessorkernen ermöglicht. Aufgrund des stark variierenden Rechenaufwands ist dafür eine hochskalierbare dynamische Lastbalancierung des Wolkenmikrophysikmodells unumgänglich. Dies wird durch ein hierarchisches Partitionierungsverfahren erreicht, das auf raumfüllenden Kurven basiert. Darüber hinaus wird eine hochskalierbare Verknüpfung von dynamischer Lastbalancierung und Modellkopplung durch ein effizientes Verfahren für die regelmäßige Bestimmung der Überschneidungen zwischen unterschiedlichen Partitionierungen ermöglicht. Durch die effiziente Nutzung von Hochleistungsrechnern ermöglichen die Ergebnisse der Arbeit die Anwendung spektraler Wolkenmikrophysikmodelle zur Simulation realistischer Szenarien auf hochaufgelösten Gittern. / Current forecast models insufficiently represent the complex interactions of aerosols, clouds and precipitation. Simulations with spectral description of cloud processes allow more detailed forecasts. However, they are much more computationally expensive. Reducing the runtime of such simulations requires a highly parallel execution. This thesis presents a concept for coupling spectral cloud microphysics models with atmospheric models that allows for efficient utilization of today\'s available parallelism in the order of 100.000 processor cores. Due to the strong workload variations, highly scalable dynamic load balancing of the cloud microphysics model is essential in order to reach this goal. This is achieved through a hierarchical partitioning method based on space-filling curves. Furthermore, a highly scalable connection of dynamic load balancing and model coupling is facilitated by an efficient method to regularly determine the intersections between different partitionings. The results of this thesis enable the application of spectral cloud microphysics models for the simulation of realistic scenarios with high resolution grids by efficient use of high performance computers.