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Wintertime compound extremes in Europe and North America : from dynamics to predictabilityLeeding, Richard January 2023 (has links)
This thesis examines the co-occurrence of wintertime low temperature extremes (cold spells) over North America and wet or windy extremes over Europe. Prolonged (≅ 5 days) North American cold spells can be associated with both upstream and downstream anomalous large-scale atmospheric flows, the latter modulating extreme weather occurrences over Europe. The approximate co-occurrence of European wet or windy extremes with North American cold spells is temporally and spatially dependent on the location of cold spells. We identify three broad regional clusters of cold spells: Central Canada: cold spells are predominantly preceded by Iberian precipitation extremes. Eastern United States: occurrences of both wind and precipitation extremes in Iberia before and after the cold spell. East Canada: cold spells are predominantly followed by wind extremes over the British Isles and Northern Europe. We show that cold spells over these three regions are associated with distinct storm track and jet stream anomalies over the North Atlantic. Iberia experiences a higher number of extratropical cyclones during Central Canada cold spells due to an equatorward displacement of the jet. However, the propagation of extratropical cyclones over Europe is limited due to a Scandinavian block-type configuration over Northern Europe. Eastern United States cold spells show a similar configuration to Central Canada. However, this configuration does not show the Scandinavian block-type feature, resulting in a higher number of extratropical cyclones affecting Iberia and Southern Europe. Eastern Canada cold spells are associated with an extended and accelerated jet over Northern Europe. As a result, the UK, France and Northern Europe experience more intense extratropical cyclones on average, with the accelerated jet resulting in stronger extratropical cyclones throughout the North Atlantic in general. These results evidence the existence of a systematic statistical and dynamical connection between North American cold spells and European wet or windy extremes.
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An Evaluation of Seasonality through Four Delineation Methods: A Comparison of Mortality Responses and the Relationship with Anomalous Temperature EventsAllen, Michael James 15 July 2014 (has links)
No description available.
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Investigating Sub-tropical Community Resistance and Resilience to Climate DisturbanceBoucek, Ross E 31 August 2016 (has links)
Changes in global climate will likely increase climate variability. In turn, changes in climate variability have begun to alter the frequency, intensity, and timing of climate disturbances. Continued changes in the climate disturbance regime experienced by natural systems will undoubtedly affect ecological processes at every hierarchical scale. Thus, in order to predict the dynamics of ecological systems in the future, we must develop a more mechanistic understanding of how and in what ways climate disturbance affects natural systems. In South Florida, two climate disturbances recently affected the region, a severe cold spell in 2010, and a drought in 2011. Importantly, these disturbances affected an ecosystem of long-term, comprehensive, and persistent ecological study in the Shark River estuary in the Everglades National Park. The aims of my dissertation were to (1) assess the relative severity of these two climate disturbances, (2) identify effects of these disturbances on community structuring, (3) compare community change from the 2010 cold spell with community change from another extreme cold spell that affected sub-tropical China in 2008, (4) assess the effects of the drought on predator prey interactions in the Shark River and (5) apply a spatial approach to predicting population resistance to these events. My results show that the 2010 cold spell was the most severe cold event to affect the Shark River in the last 80 years, while the drought was the worst drought to occur in the last 10 years. The cold spell drove community change that was predictable based on the traits of component species, whereas community change was less predictable using trait-based approaches. When comparing community change from the extreme 2010 event in Florida with the event in China, I identified three consistencies related to community change from extreme cold events that occurred across both events that will help build generalized understanding of community resistance to increasingly extreme climate events in the future. From the trophic study, I found that the drought reduced prey for estuarine piscivores. Not only was prey biomass reduced, the drought drove a compositional shift in prey communities from fish to invertebrates, which are lower in calories. Last, I found that animal movement may create temporally dynamic resistance scenarios that should be accounted for when developing predictive models.
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Co-occurring Cold Extremes in North America and Unusually Warm Weather in Europe / Samförekomst av kalla extrema i Nordamerika och ovanligt varmt väder i EuropaStergiou, Petros January 2023 (has links)
In this project, we identified and examined the 50 coldest extreme temperature eventsin North America (CENA) and the 50 warmest extreme temperature events insouthwestern Europe (WEEU) during the winter seasons from 1948 to 2023. For theanalysis, we utilized daily NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data for temperature, sea levelpressure (SLP), and 500hPa geopotential height (Z500). Our main objective was toinvestigate the co-occurrence of CENA-WEEU events. To deepen our understandingof the recurrence of these events and their relationship with large-scale atmosphericpatterns and drivers, we examined the SLP and Z500 for the selected extreme events.The results revealed clear indications of an interconnection between CENA andWEEU. During the CENA, above-normal temperatures were observed over Europe,while negative temperature anomalies affected the eastern USA during the WEEU.This co-occurrence was further supported by the identification of seven CENA-WEEUextremes that occurred almost simultaneously. The findings regarding the large-scaleatmospheric drivers of these extremes align with previous studies. The CENAappears to be driven by an anomalous high ridge over the Gulf of Alaska and anortherly flow over North America, while the WEEU seems to be influenced by astrong, zonal and southerly shifted flow across the North Atlantic, associated with adeep trough over the British Isles and a ridge over the Mediterranean basin. Acommon feature of CENA-WEEU events is the presence of a negative North AtlanticOscillation (NAO)-like atmospheric pattern over the Atlantic Ocean prior to theiroccurrence.Despite the significant similarities between these events, some disparities relatedto the atmospheric flow and the magnitude of temperature anomalies in the twocontinents suggest the need for further investigation to enhance our understanding ofthe co-occurrence of CENA-WEEU events. / I detta projekt identifierades och studerades de 50 kallaste extrematemperaturhändelserna i Nordamerika (CENA) och de 50 varmaste extrematemperaturhändelserna i sydvästra Europa (WEEU) under vintersäsongerna från1948 till 2023. För analysen, användes dagliga NCEP-NCAR återanalys för demeteorologiska variablerna temperatur, tryck (SLP) och 500hPa geopotentialhöjd(Z500). Huvudsyftet med denna studie är att undersöka samförekomsten avCENA-WEEU-händelserna. För att fördjupa vår förståelse för återkommandehändelser och deras förhållande till storskaliga atmosfäriska mönster och drivkrafter,användes SLP och Z500 variablar för de utvalda extrema händelserna.Resultaten visade tydliga tecken på sammankoppling mellan CENA och WEEU.Temperaturer över det normala observerades över Europa under CENA, medannegativa temperaturanomalier påverkade östra USA under WEEU. Samförekomstenstöds ytterligare av identifieringen av sju CENA-WEEU-extremer som inträffadenästan samtidigt. När det gäller de storskaliga atmosfäriska drivfaktorer förextremerna, stämmer resultaten överens med tidigare studier. En starkhögtrycskrygg över Alaskagolfen och ett nordligt flöde över Nordamerika verkar drivaCENA, medan ett ett starkt, zon- och sydligt förskjutet flöde över Nordatlanten,associerat med intensiv cyklonaktivitet över de brittiska öarna och en högtrycksryggöver Medelhavsområdet, verkar vara källan till WEEU. Ett gemensamt drag förCENA-WEEU är förekomsten av ett negativt NAO-liknande atmosfäriskt mönster överAtlanten innan de inträffade.Trots de starka och många likheterna mellan händelserna, tyder vissa skillnaderrelaterade till atmosfärsflödet och extrema temperaturavvikelser på de bådakontinenterna, på behovet av ytterligare undersökningar för att fördjupa vår förståelseav samförekomsten mellan CENA och WEEU.
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