Abstract With the rapid development of internet and information technology, the era of automation and computerization of business has dawned. Consequently, electronic-business has become the key factor of competitive strength of the global business in the 21st century. In order to easily acquire information on business, simplify the work procedure, and improve efficiency, e-commerce should be promoted by the integration of information technology and network infrastructure so that the competitive strength of business can be enhanced. Under the influence of the computerization of business and government, the trend of e-campus has been growing in colleges and universities, and has become the principal focus of administration, teaching, research, student life, and learning environment on campus. I interviewed several professors and officers who are in charge of computerization in their universities, to understand the meaning, purpose, process, problems, and key factors of e-campus. The results of the interviews are sorted as follows: 1. E-campus can be defined as the transformation of the school by which the efficiency of administration system, the e-learning environment for students, and the teaching and research environment for teachers will be improved to increase the competitive strength. 2. The purposes of e-campus are: (1) to provide services and information for faculty and students, (2) to simplify the document flow charts for high efficiency, productivity, downsizing, competitive strength, and low cost, (3) to equip students with the concepts and application of computerization for job creation, (4) to collect the campus information for management decision, and (5) to save energy and protect the environment. 3. E-campus should be proceeded in proper sequence¡Xfrom the simple to the complex and from the higher level to the lower level. The process has to be planned precisely, and the results be checked cautiously to assure the achievement of the goal. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an e-campus team for planning and administering. 4. The problems caused in the process are as follows--personal problems (such as age), changes of the organization, selection of software and hardware, equipments, net connection between campuses, and research and development for the new systems. 5. It is very difficult to measure the results of e-campus in quantity, but part of them are predictable, for example, the process time will be shortened, and the efficiency will be raised. 6. The key factors of e-campus can be classified into eight items, and six of them are in accordance with those of e-business. They are (1) professional team work for promotion, (2) participation and innovation of the members of organizations, (3) training of professionals, (4) establishment of a pilot unit, (5) reference to actually successful examples, and (6) methods and strategies to reach the goal and to satisfy the needs of the faculty and staff members. The other two differences between them are the support and insistence of managers and the continuous implementation. 7. The installation of objectives, planning and design, application of information technology are the essential points for attention. The safety of data deserves alertness because hackers and computer viruses will destroy the entire systems. Key words: e-campus, information technology, computerization, Internet, key success factor

以往建立銷售預測模式，是以銷售資料本身過去之變化情形為主，即只考慮外生變數 之綜合性影響，往往忽略了外生變數之重要性。然隨著社會結構的日趨複雜，外生變 數對銷售預測常有著牽一髮而動全身之影響力，因此在今日多元化的社會中，欲精準 地達成銷售預測目的。則需依賴外生變數之掌握，所以外生變數預測在銷售預測目外 可或缺的一環。本研究主要發展實務導向之外生變數預測，俾使企業電腦化之實際應 用。 方法上乃運用貝氏時間序列分解成長期趨勢，季節變動，循環變動及不規則變動後， 再融入專家之先驗知識，採用乘法模式進行外生變數預測，其中在估計長期趨勢時， 更運用了BOX-COX 轉換函數，移動平均法及加權最小平方法等；在融入專家之先驗知 識時，運用貝氏理論，計算樣本預測之間之關係篤差異，以求得更精準之預測。 為探討上述方法之可行性，實證方面以一個案公司之實際資料，假定各種特例情況， 逐一測定每一步驟之正確性及穩定性。 此結構乃一實務導向之外生變數預測，企業可將之電腦化，經由先驗訊息的融入，探 討廣告，促銷，相對價格籌之預測與規化；而且，本研究所獲之外生變數預測可輸入 內生變數預測系統，求得精確之銷售預測。