The purpose of the paper is to explore the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Germany during the period from 1970 to 2012. Through the methods of cointegration, dynamic OLS and an error correction model, this paper highlights that there is no short run negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, and consequently the short run Phillips curve is an unsuitable instrument for making political decisions. Furthermore, there is a long run relationship between inflation and unemployment, which can be explained with asymmetric nominal wage rigidities and resulting frictional growth. Resulting policy implications reflect the advantage of a permanent higher inflation target for Germany. Since the beginning of the European Monetary Union, Germany has been on average 0.5% under the permanent inflation target of the central bank. Therefore, by using fiscal policy, Germany can reduce permanent unemployment without missing the inflation target of the central bank. Finally, despite of variety of intensive changes in the macroeconomic situation and particularly through the establishment of the European Monetary Union, the CUSUM and CUSUMsq test reveal that the estimate holds validity over the entire observation period and has not changed since the beginning of the European Monetary Union.

The purpose of this essay is to answer the following questions: Has the increased e-commerce had a negative impact on the inflation, and is the effect decreasing? and: Is there a long term and/or short term effect by the increased e-commerce on the inflation? To answer the first question a fixed effects regression model is applied, based on panel data for 28 European countries for the time period 2006-2017. The regression obtains results that support the hypothesis that the increased e-commerce has had a negative effect on inflation. Furthermore, the result indicates that the effect is decreasing. The second question is answered with the help of an Error Correction Model and time series data for Sweden during the period 2006-2017. The result shows that there is an error correction towards a long run equilibrium and the short term estimates indicate that there is a negative short term effect of the increased e-commerce on inflation. These results are in line with the hypothesis of this essay as well as previous studies that have examined similar questions.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / Purpose:This research investigates the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships among the stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). It further investigates cointegrated stock pairs for possible implementation of statistical arbitrage trading techniques.Design:We utilize standard multivariate time series analysis procedures to inspect unit roots to assess stationarity of the series. Thereafter, cointegration is tested by the Johansen and Juselius (1990) procedure and the variables are interpreted by a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Statistical arbitrage is investigated through the pairs trading technique.Findings:The five stock indices are found to be cointegrated. Analysis shows that the cointegration rank among the variables is significantly influenced by structural breaks. Two pairs of stock variables are also found to be cointegrated. This guaranteed the mean reversion property necessary for the successful execution of the pairs trading technique. Determining the optimal spread threshold also proved to be highly significant with respect to the success of this trading technique.Value:This research seeks to expand on the literature covering long-run co-movements of the volatile emerging market indices. Based on the cointegration relation shared by the BRICS, the research also seeks to encourage risk taking when investing. We achieve this by showing the potential rewards that can be realized through employing appropriate statistical arbitrage trading techniques in these markets.

PhD (Advanced Nursing Science) / Department of Advanced Nursing Science / Cervical cancer may be preventable when screening services which detect cancerous cells at an early stage are utilized. Utilization of cervical cancer screening services, taking of Pap smear in particular, is effective if done systematically, that is, yearly or every ten years depending on whether the individual is at risk or not. Failure to utilize cervical cancer screening services predisposes women to cervical cancer because if one is affected, the disease will progress without one being aware. Studies have been carried out in this area, but not much has been done on strategies to promote the utilization of cervical cancer screening services. Purpose The purpose of this study was to develop an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Objective The specific objectives were to explore and describe the provision of cervical cancer screening services by Primary Health Care Nurses (PHCNs); assess the awareness of women on the utilization of cervical cancer screening services; develop an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services and to validate an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services at Vhembe District in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Methodology The research was conducted in three phases. In Phase I, qualitative and quantitative approaches were used. The qualitative approach was used to explore experiences of nurses concerning the provision of cervical cancer screening services and the quantitative approach applied for assessment of the awareness of women on the utilization of cervical screening services. The population in the qualitative approach were PHCNs providing cervical cancer services and, in the quantitative approach, were women aged 20-59. Nonprobability purposive sampling was used to sample 15 PHCNs and 500 women. Ethical considerations, that is, the rights of all the stakeholders were honoured. Data was collected from PHCNs through semi-structured interviews using an interview guide and from women through questionnaires. Reliability and validity of the research was ensured. Qualitative data was analyzed through open-coding and quantitative data through descriptive statistics (frequencies and percentages). ABSTRACT vi Results In Phase II, an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa was developed. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis was used to analyze the validity. Political, economic, socio-cultural, technological, environmental factors and laws within the opportunities and threats landscape of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District were analyzed. The Build, Overcome, Explore and Minimize (BOEM) paradigm was used to developed the intervention strategy. In Phase III, the qualitative and quantitative approach was used to validate the developed intervention strategies. A purposive sampling was used to sample fifteen PHCNs and 4 four managers. Conclusions Intervention strategies with action plans were developed. Recommendations Recommendations related to implementation of strategies to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services were compiled.

Magister Commercii - MCom / This study investigates the effect of public debt on economic growth in South Africa since 1961-2017. Public debt stock is disaggregated into external debt and domestic debt in order to determine the effect of each on economic growth independently. The study employed the ARDL bound test to estimate the long and short run relationship among several macroeconomic variables - real economic growth, domestic debt, external debt, budget deficit, inflation rate and investment. An error correction model was used to analyses the short-run disequilibrium. The results show that there is a short and long run equilibrium relationship between foreign debt, domestic debt, budget deficit, inflation rate and economic growth. The empirical results indicate that external debt negatively affects the real GDP growth in South Africa, both in the short and long-run. Several policy implications emerged from the empirical results. To keep public debt more manageable, South Africa should improve its debt management. Furthermore, the country can make use of debt to equity swaps by privatizing underperforming parastatals. This would make them competitive and efficient.

The Forest Resource Conservation and Shortage Relief Act of 1990 was the first federal attempt to impose a blanket restriction on export of roundwood to conserve existing forest cover and generate economic benefits from exporting processed wood. This study estimates the export demand equation for total export from United States Pacific Northwest, major species and destination countries using Johansen multivariate time series analysis. Cointegration rank is identified using Johansen cointegration test incorporating a structural breaks and normalized restriction is imposed to predict demand function under the framework of vector error correction model. All the variables under study are statistically significant with expected signs in the long run demand estimates. Roundwood export restriction policies are found to have impacted the export demand equation negatively. The study helps to understand the impact of log export restrictions policies along with other economic variables and assist in future policy formulations.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / A persistent problem for hedge fund researchers presents itself in the form of inconsistent and diverse style classifications within and across database providers. For this paper, single-manager hedge funds from the Hedge Fund Research (HFR) and Hedgefund.Net (HFN) databases were classified on the basis of a common factor, extracted using the factor axis methodology. It was assumed that the returns of all sample hedge funds are attributable to a common factor that is shared across hedge funds within one classification, and a specific factor that is unique to a particular hedge fund. In contrast to earlier research and the application of principal component analysis, factor axis has sought to determine how much of the covariance in the dataset is due to common factors (communality). Factor axis largely ignores the diagonal elements of the covariance matrix and orthogonal factor rotation maximises the covariance between hedge fund return series. In an iterative framework, common factors were extracted until all return series were described by one common and one specific factor. Prior to factor extraction, the series was tested for autoregressive moving-average processes and the residuals of such models were used in further analysis to improve upon squared correlations as initial factor estimates. The methodology was applied to 120 ten-year rolling estimation windows in the July 1990 to June 2010 timeframe. The results indicate that the number of distinct style classifications is reduced in comparison to the arbitrary self-selected classifications of the databases. Single manager hedge funds were grouped in portfolios on the basis of the common factor they share. In contrast to other classification methodologies, these common factor portfolios (CFPs) assume that some unspecified individual component of the hedge fund constituents’ returns is diversified away and that single manager hedge funds should be classified according to their common return components. From the CFPs of single manager hedge funds, pure style indices were created to be entered in a multivariate autoregressive framework. For each style index, a Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was estimated to determine the short-term as well as co-integrating relationship of the hedge fund series with the index level series of a stock, bond and commodity proxy. It was postulated that a) in a well-diversified portfolio, the current level of the hedge fund index is independent of the lagged observations from the other asset indices; and b) if the assumptions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) hold, it is expected that the predictive power of the model will be low. The analysis was conducted for the July 2000 - June 2010 period. Impulse response tests and variance decomposition revealed that changes in hedge fund index levels are partially induced by changes in the stock, bond and currency markets. Investors are therefore cautioned not to overemphasise the diversification benefits of hedge fund investments. Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) / managed futures, on the other hand, deliver diversification benefits when integrated with an existing portfolio. The results indicated that single manager hedge funds can be reliably classified using the principal factor axis methodology. Continuously re-balanced pure style index representations of these classifications could be used in further analysis. Extensive multivariate analysis revealed that CTAs and macro hedge funds offer superior diversification benefits in the context of existing portfolios. The empirical results are of interest not only to academic researchers, but also practitioners seeking to replicate the methodologies presented.

This paper examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and tests for causality using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). There is evidence of long-run relationships in the three models under consideration. The Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) finds no evidence to support the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Zambia in the long-run. The evidence from the long-run suggests an opposite of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), in that the results indicate a U-shaped curve relationship between income and carbon emission. The conclusion on causality based on the VECM is that there is evidence of neutrality hypothesis between either total electricity and income or between industrial electricity and income in the short-run Additionally, there is evidence of conservation hypothesis in the context of residential and agricultural electricity consumption.

Wind energy has been growing rapidly during recent years. This paper aims to estimate the impact of wind power generation on the Swedish wholesale electricity price, using monthly time series data over the periods 2000-2016. The error-correction model is used to measure the price effect by including other factors that influence the electricity supply and demand. Thefindings suggest that the impact of changes in wind power production on the wholesale priceof electricity is negative in the short-term. When the wind power production increases by 1%, the wholesale electricity price decreases with 0.08%. Furthermore, the magnitude of the coefficient increases to 0.10% in the long-term.

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / Life expectancy in South African has been fluctuating following the global trends that affects both developed and developing countries. In South Africa the average life expectancy from 1994 to 1996 was higher with an average of 61,3 years. As from 1997 to 1999 it declined to an average of 58,4 years. The difference in years between 1994-1996 and 1997- 1999 was 2,9 years. From 2000-2002, life expectancy continued to decline to an average of 54,6 years. Life expectancy declined in a constant proportion from 2003-2005 and 2006-2008. In 2003-2005 it slightly declined to 52 years and in 2004-2007 it declined to 42,0 years. Life expectancy escalated after the mentioned years to 54,4 years between 2009-2011 and from 2012-2013 life expectancy was 54,0 years on average. This study examined factors or variables that verify the socioeconomic determinants of life expectancy in post-apartheid South Africa. Understanding the relationship between life expectancy and the socioeconomic variables was based on three objectives. The main objective for this study was to determine the impact of socioeconomic variables and health policy efforts on life expectancy, seeking an in-depth understanding by investigating the causality relationship between life expectancy and socioeconomic variables thus later investigating the difference between male and female’s life expectancy. This study was motivated by the fluctuating life expectancy in South Africa. The fluctuation in life expectancy were thus studied in relation to socioeconomic determinants which are government health expenditure, government education expenditure, GDP per capita, total fertility rate, urban population, access to sustainable drinking water and undernourishment. The mentioned variables were used as socioeconomic determinants of life expectancy during post-apartheid South Africa.