In this dissertation, I propose a reductive account of causation. This account may be stated as follows: Causation: c is a cause of e within a possibility horizon ℓ if a) c is process-connected to e, and b) e security-depends on c within ℓ. More precisely, my suggestion is that there are two kinds of causal relata: instantaneous events (defined in Chapter 4) and possibility horizons (defined in Chapter 5). Causation is a ternary relation between two actual instantaneous events - the cause c and the effect e - and a possibility horizon ℓ. I argue that causation has a dual nature: on the one hand, a cause must be connected to its effect via a genuine process; on the other hand, a cause must make a difference to its effect. The first condition - namely, the condition of process-connection (defined in Chapter 6) - captures the sense in which a cause must be connected to its effect via a genuine process. This condition allows my account to separate causation from mere correlation, distinguish genuine causes from preempted backups, and capture how a cause must be at the right level of detail relative to its effect (Chapter 7). The second condition - namely, the condition of security-dependence (defined in Chapter 8) - captures the sense in which a cause must make a difference to its effect. This condition allows my account to yield intuitively correct verdicts on the counterexamples to the transitivity and intrinsicness of causation, resolve the problem of profligate omissions, accommodate structurally isomorphic but causally different cases, and handle contrastive causal claims (Chapter 9 and 10). Finally, my proposed account of causation logically entails restricted versions of three important principles of causal reasoning concerning the sufficiency of counterfactual dependence for causation, and the transitivity and intrinsicness of causation (Chapter 11).

Both literature and practice have investigated how the vast amount of ever increasing customer information can inform marketing strategy and decision making. However, the customer data is often susceptible to modeling bias and misleading findings due to various factors including sample selection and unobservable variables. The available analytics toolkit has continued to develop but in the age of nearly perfect information, the customer decision making has also evolved. The dissertation addresses some of the challenges in deriving valid and useful consumer insights from customer data in the digital age. The first study addresses the limitations of traditional customer purchase measures to account of dynamic temporal variations in the customer purchase history. The study proposes a new approach for representation and summarization of customer purchases to improve promotion forecasts. The method also accounts for sample selection bias that arises due to biased selection of customers for the promotion. The second study investigates the impact of increasing internet penetration on the consumer choices and their response to marketing actions. Using the case study of physician’s drug prescribing, the study identifies how marketers can misallocate resources at the regional level by not accounting for variations in internet penetration. The third paper develops a data driven metric for measuring temporal variations in the brand loyalty. Using a network representation of brand and customer the study also investigates the spillover effects of manufacturer related information shocks on the brand’s loyalty.

La presente ricerca mira ad approfondire la natura strategica e gli effetti del ragionamento controfattuale utilizzato in discorsi di natura conflittuale tra avversari politici, con l'obiettivo implicito di persuadere un pubblico di ascoltatori. A questo scopo, sono stati condotti due studi. La prima ricerca quantitativa mira a comprendere quanto un attacco controfattuale possa minare l'immagine dei politici nei confronti dei cittadini, a dispetto dell’importanza dell’orientamento ideologico del pubblico stesso. Nella seconda ricerca quantitativa si sono approfonditi gli effetti di diverse tipologie di attacchi controfattuali sull’immagine dei leader politici; gli attacchi controfattuali sono mossi a diversi livelli di astrazione e sottendono la violazione di una norma di competenza o di integrità da parte del leader target. / This study aims at deepening the strategic nature and the effects of counterfactual reasoning used in dialectical discourses among politicians, whose implicit goal consists in persuading receivers. For this purpose, two studies have been realized. The first quantitative research aims at understanding if the use of counterfactual attacks can harm politicians' image, in spite of the importance of political attitudes of citizens. The second quantitative research studies the effects of different counterfactuals on politicians’ image; these counterfactual attacks (at different levels of abstraction) can evoke the violation of a norm of agency or communion by the leader.

abstract: A major challenge in health-related policy and program evaluation research is attributing underlying causal relationships where complicated processes may exist in natural or quasi-experimental settings. Spatial interaction and heterogeneity between units at individual or group levels can violate both components of the Stable-Unit-Treatment-Value-Assumption (SUTVA) that are core to the counterfactual framework, making treatment effects difficult to assess. New approaches are needed in health studies to develop spatially dynamic causal modeling methods to both derive insights from data that are sensitive to spatial differences and dependencies, and also be able to rely on a more robust, dynamic technical infrastructure needed for decision-making. To address this gap with a focus on causal applications theoretically, methodologically and technologically, I (1) develop a theoretical spatial framework (within single-level panel econometric methodology) that extends existing theories and methods of causal inference, which tend to ignore spatial dynamics; (2) demonstrate how this spatial framework can be applied in empirical research; and (3) implement a new spatial infrastructure framework that integrates and manages the required data for health systems evaluation. The new spatially explicit counterfactual framework considers how spatial effects impact treatment choice, treatment variation, and treatment effects. To illustrate this new methodological framework, I first replicate a classic quasi-experimental study that evaluates the effect of drinking age policy on mortality in the United States from 1970 to 1984, and further extend it with a spatial perspective. In another example, I evaluate food access dynamics in Chicago from 2007 to 2014 by implementing advanced spatial analytics that better account for the complex patterns of food access, and quasi-experimental research design to distill the impact of the Great Recession on the foodscape. Inference interpretation is sensitive to both research design framing and underlying processes that drive geographically distributed relationships. Finally, I advance a new Spatial Data Science Infrastructure to integrate and manage data in dynamic, open environments for public health systems research and decision- making. I demonstrate an infrastructure prototype in a final case study, developed in collaboration with health department officials and community organizations. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2017

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de NÃvel Superior / Analyzing the income differentials between Brazilian workersâ occupations is the focus of this paper. Due to the wide diversity of occupations cataloged by the IBGE (around 800), and to allow statistical treatment in econometric modeling, it was applied the theoretical schema of Erickson, Goldthorpe and Portocarrero (1979) and Goldthorpe, Llewellyn and Payne (1987) to reduce them in only seven. The methodological approach is based on mincerian quantile equations to be estimated in various strata of the workersâ income distribution, on which a breakdown is made to check the gap between the individualsâearnings with distinct inherent attributes and between those living in more and less developed regions. The estimation results confirm the importance of breakdown analysis for occupational strata as well as for quantiles, since the effects of explanatory variables are distinct along the earningsâ distribution and vary among occupations. Regarding the gaps in this distribution, there is a glass ceiling effect in some occupations, that is, the gap is greater at the top of distribution. However, in most cases occurs a sticky floor effect, the gap is greater at the bottom of distribution. Moreover, contrary to the gap in gender, which are due only to the compensation characteristics of individuals, which is understood as discrimination, income differentials between regions and races are also due to the different characteristics of workers. / Analisar os diferenciais de rendimentos entre as ocupaÃÃes dos trabalhadores brasileiros à o foco central deste trabalho. Em virtude da vasta diversidade de ocupaÃÃes catalogadas pelo IBGE (cerca de 800) e para permitir tratamento estatÃstico em modelagem economÃtrica, aplica-se o princÃpio teÃrico do esquema de classes de Erickson, Goldthorpe e Portocarrero (1979) e Goldthorpe, Llewellyn e Payne (1987) para reduzi-las em apenas sete. A abordagem metodolÃgica baseia-se em equaÃÃes mincerianas quantÃlicas, estimadas em vÃrios estratos da distribuiÃÃo de rendimentos dos trabalhadores, sobre a qual à feita uma decomposiÃÃo para verificar o hiato entre os rendimentos dos indivÃduos com atributos inerentes distintos, bem como entre aqueles residentes em regiÃes mais e menos desenvolvidas do paÃs. Os resultados das estimaÃÃes ratificam a importÃncia da anÃlise desagregada em estratos ocupacionais e por quantis, uma vez que os efeitos das variÃveis explicativas sÃo distintos ao longo das distribuiÃÃes de rendimentos e entre as ocupaÃÃes. Em relaÃÃo Ãs lacunas existentes entre as distribuiÃÃes de rendimentos, verifica-se um glass ceiling effect em algumas ocupaÃÃes, ou seja, a defasagem à maior no topo da distribuiÃÃo. Entretanto, na maioria dos casos ocorre um sticky floor effect, isto Ã, o hiato à maior na parte inferior da distribuiÃÃo. AlÃm disso, diferente das lacunas entre gÃneros, que sÃo decorrentes apenas da remuneraÃÃo Ãs caracterÃsticas dos indivÃduos, o que à entendido como discriminaÃÃo, os diferenciais de rendimentos entre raÃas e regiÃes tambÃm sÃo decorrentes das diferentes caracterÃsticas dos trabalhadores.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de NÃvel Superior / O objetivo deste trabalho à construir um modelo de equilÃbrio geral,de modo a realizar simulaÃÃes contrafactuais dos recentes aumentos dos investimentos pÃblicos no Brasil, visando verificar efeitos nos agregados macroeconÃmicos, bem como no bem-estar social.Para a calibraÃÃo das variÃveis e parÃmetros do modelo foram utilizadas diversas bases de dados, inclusive IBGE, IPEADATA e Banco Central. Os exercÃcios consistem em alterar os valores dos parÃmetros referentes à proporÃÃo da composiÃÃo dos investimentos pÃblicos no qual no ano de 2010 os investimentos da administraÃÃo pÃblica, que se supÃem complementares aos investimentos privados, tiveram uma participaÃÃo de 53% da parcela dos investimentos pÃblicos em relaÃÃo ao PIB. Os investimentos das empresas estatais, que, por hipÃtese, sÃo substitutos dos investimentos privados, participaram com o complementar, 47%. A simulaÃÃo que direciona 80% dos investimentos pÃblicos à administraÃÃo pÃblica enquanto o restante 20% sÃo investidos pelas empresas estatais proporciona resultados de longo prazo no qual o produto cresceria cerca de 9,5%, enquanto o bem-estar cresceria 8%, de acordo com a medida proposta no trabalho. AlÃm disso, nas simulaÃÃes realizadas, mesmo na hipÃtese do capital das empresas estatais possuir maior produtividade que o capital privado,ganhos de bem-estar e crescimento poderiam ser obtidos. / The objective of this work is to build a general equilibrium model, in order to perform counterfactual simulations of recent increases in public investment in Brazil to check effects on macroeconomic aggregates, as well as in social welfare. For the calibration of the model parameters and variables were used several databases, including IBGE, IPEADATA and Central Bank. The exercises consist of changing the values of the parameters for the composition ratio of public investment in the year 2010 in which the investments of public administration, which are supposed to complement private investment, had a participation of 53% of the share of public investment to GDP. The investments of the state enterprises, which, by definition, are substitutes for private investment, participated with 47% complementary. The simulation that directs 80% of public investment to public administration while the remaining 30% is invested by state enterprises provides long-term results in which the product would grow about 9.5% while the welfare would grow 8%, according with the proposed measure on the job. Furthermore, in simulations performed, even if the capital of the state enterprises have higher productivity than private capital, gains in welfare and growth would be obtained.

Este trabalho busca trazer robustez aos resultados observados em estudos comparativos entre escolas públicas e privadas do Brasil, que indicam uma maior capacidade da rede particular de ensino em gerar qualidade educacional. Para isso, uma abordagem quantílica, baseada na seleção em observadas, foi realizada. Vale ressaltar que, ao contrário de outras abordagens, a realizada nesta dissertação tem inferência assintótica. A base de dados utilizada foi a do SAEB de 2005, para as provas de matemática de oitava série. Novamente foi evidenciada uma superioridade das escolas privadas, mesmo controlando para diversas covariadas de alunos, professores e escolas. Este fato fortalece a possibilidade de implantação de políticas de cupons para escolas particulares, apesar de haver a necessidade de estudos adicionais sobre o assunto. Em relação às covariadas que reduziriam a distância entre as distribuições de notas de alunos de escolas públicas e privadas, constatouse que fatores determinantes do grupo de alunos na escola e na sala (peer group effects) seriam os mais importantes. Isso corrobora com resultados de outros trabalhos que evidenciam a importância desses fatores para explicar a maior efetividade das escolas privadas em relação às escolas públicas. / This paper aims at bringing strength to the results observed in other studies that point out a larger ability of the private school network to generate quality education in Brazil. To achieve that result, this study applies a quantile approach based on the selection on observable variables. Note that unlike other approaches , the one applied in this dissertation has asymptotic inference. The data base used in this study was that of SAEB 2005 for math tests in the 8th grade. As in other studies, here again the superiority of the private schools was made evident, even though various students\', teachers\' and schools\' covariates are controlled. This result strengthens the possibility of a policy of quotas for private schools, although additional studies on the subject are necessary. In relation to the variables that would reduce the distance between the grades distributions of students on public and private schools, peer group effects were observed to be the more important ones. These results are similar to the ones observed in other studies that point out the importance of the peer group effects to explain the higher effectiveness of the private schools in comparison to the public schools.

This thesis examines whether the McCallum´s rule, which targets nominal GDP using the monetary base as its instrument, would be more successful in achieving the goal of smoother path of nominal GDP with inflation staying on target, had it been in place of the actual historical monetary policy in the Czech Republic. To assess the performance of McCallum´s rule, I calculate simulated paths for nominal GDP and money base, using counterfactual simulation method. The results suggest that, compared to the historical monetary policy, the rule would not be able to secure a smoother path of nominal GDP and would bring only a slight improvement in the central bank´s ability to keep average inflation on its target. These results are not convincing enough to support a decision in favor of replacing the current regime of inflation targeting with nominal GDP targeting regime based on McCallum´s rule. Even so, it would be possible to use the rule under the current regime as a benchmark or a monitoring tool for assessing the stance of monetary policy.

In this study, I consider the performance of simple forecast models frequently applied in counterfactual analysis when the information at hand is limited. Furthermore, I discuss the robustness of the standard t-test commonly used to statistically detect cartels. I empirically verify that the standard t-statistics encompasses parameter estimation uncertainty when one of the time series in a two-sided t-test has been estimated. Thereafter, I compare the results with those from a corrected t-test, recently proposed, where the uncertainty has been accounted for. The results from the study show that a simple OLS-model can be used to detect a cartel and to compute a counterfactual price when data is limited, at least as long as the price overcharge inflicted by the cartel members is relatively large. Yet, the level of accuracy may vary and at a point where the data used for estimating the model become relatively limited, the model predictions tend to be inaccurate.

General game playing is an area of artificial intelligence which focuses on creating agents capable of playing many games from some class. The agents receive the rules just before the match and therefore cannot be specialized for each game. Deepstack is the first artificial intelligence to beat professional human players in heads-up no-limit Texas hold'em poker. While it is specialized for poker, at its core is a general algorithm for playing two-player zero-sum games with imperfect information - continual resolving. In this thesis we introduce a general version of continual resolving and compare its performance against Online Outcome Sampling Monte Carlo Counterfactual Regret Minimization in several games.