The thesis examines subordinated debt holder market discipline in UK credit institutions during the period 1995 to 2002. The topic is relevant as current research is questioning the role and effectiveness of rules-based bank regulatory oversight, and favouring, instead, incentive-compatible regulatory design and market discipline. In particular, the literature proposes using signals from subordinated debt holders to constrain bank risk-taking. In addition, this market oversight may provide information signals to regulatory agencies that are useful in improving bank regulatory design. The thesis researches two prominent issues related to subordinated debt holder market discipline and, therefore, contributes to the debate in introducing incentive-compatible polices in bank regulatory design. First, testing the risk sensitivity of UK credit institution subordinated debt spreads assesses whether investors are signalling bank risk in market prices. The UK evidence supports the theoretical literature in claiming that eliminating too-big-to-fail policies can encourage effective incentive-based mechanisms. Secondly, the research examines the appropriateness of introducing a mandatory subordinated debt policy in the UK. The empirical analysis raises a number of themes, many of which are in stark contrast to US and other European banks' subordinated debt characteristics. The conclusion is that the regular issuance of subordinated debt should be the overriding policy tool to signal and constrain bank risk-taking (i.e. direct discipline). Extending the policy to include indirect market discipline through a standardised mandatory subordinated debt requirement would impose substantial costs and should not be implemented.

The aim of this PhD project is to design profit scorecards for a revolving credit using alternative measures of profit that have not been considered in previous research. The data set consists of customers from a lending institution that grants credit to those that are usually financially excluded due to the lack of previous credit records. The study presents for the first time a relative profit measure (i.e.: returns) for scoring purposes and compares results with those obtained from usual monetary profit scores both in cumulative and average terms. Such relative measure can be interpreted as the productivity per customer in generating cash flows per monetary unit invested in receivables. Alternatively, it is the coverage against default if the lender discontinues operations at time t. At an exploratory level, results show that granting credit to financially excluded customers is a profitable business. Moreover, defaulters are not necessarily unprofitable; in average the profits generated by profitable defaulters exceed the losses generated by certain non-defaulters. Therefore, it makes sense to design profit (return) scorecards. It is shown through different methods that it makes a difference to use alternative profit measures for scoring purposes. At a customer level, using either profits or returns alters the chances of being accepted for credit. At a portfolio level, in the long term, productivity (coverage against default) is traded off if profits are used instead of returns. Additionally, using cumulative or average measures implies a trade off between the scope of the credit programme and customer productivity (coverage against default). The study also contributes to the ongoing debate of using direct and indirect prediction methods to produce not only profit but also return scorecards. Direct scores were obtained from borrower attributes, whilst indirect scores were predicted using the estimated probabilities of default and repurchase; OLS was used in both cases. Direct models outperformed indirect models. Results show that it is possible to identify customers that are profitable both in monetary and relative terms. The best performing indirect model used the probabilities of default at t=12 months and of repurchase in t=12, 30 months as predictors. This agrees with banking practices and confirms the significance of the long term perspective for revolving credit. Return scores would be preferred under more conservative standpoints towards default because of unstable conditions and if the aim is to penetrate relatively unknown segments. Further ethical considerations justify their use in an inclusive lending context. Qualitative data was used to contextualise results from quantitative models, where appropriate. This is particularly important in the microlending industry, where analysts’ market knowledge is important to complement results from scorecards for credit granting purposes. Finally, this is the first study that formally defines time-to-profit and uses it for scoring purposes. Such event occurs when the cumulative return exceeds one. It is the point in time when customers are exceedingly productive or alternatively when they are completely covered against default, regardless of future payments. A generic time-to-profit application scorecard was obtained by applying the discrete version of Cox model to borrowers’ attributes. Compared with OLS results, portfolio coverage against default was improved. A set of segmented models predicted time-to-profit for different loan durations. Results show that loan duration has a major effect on time-to-profit. Furthermore, inclusive lending programmes can generate internal funds to foster their growth. This provides useful insight for investment planning objectives in inclusive lending programmes such as the one under analysis.

Ingeniero Civil Mecánico / En Chile, los microempresarios son cada vez más. En el año 2004 el 81% de las empresas existentes correspondía a microempresarios. Es por esto que las oportunidades de crédito también están en aumento. Para que las instituciones puedan definir a quien asignar o no crédito, generalmente utilizan Credit Scoring. El problema que se presenta ante esta metodología, es que los modelos pierden poder discriminante en el tiempo, debido a cambios en la población y en la distribución de las variables que se evalúan. Esta memoria diseña un proceso de negocio, basado en test estadísticos, que permite determinar el momento óptimo para ajustar los modelos de riesgo de crédito a consumidores. La metodología que se sigue para obtenerlo, consiste en definir un test supervisado, test K-S, y un test no supervisado, Fieller Stability Measure, para estimar una medida de pérdida y el momento óptimo de la re-calibración. Con esto, se construye el proceso de negocio y se evalúa en datos de una institución financiera real. Los datos con los que se cuenta para realizar estas estimaciones consideran a carteras de microempresarios de sectores no rurales. El periodo de estudio va desde Enero del 2010 a Septiembre del 2012, y la muestra total incluye un total de 83.137 registros. Con estos datos se evalúa el comportamiento de la curva K-S versus la pérdida y se obtiene con un error del 22%, al medir el valor del aumento de la pérdida dada la baja porcentual del estadístico KS. Aplicando el método Fieller Stability Measure se verifica cuales meses las variables no cumplen con la condición de mantenerse dentro de los límites aceptables. Con esto se concluye que la alerta de acción (para re-calibrar el modelo) ocurre cuando durante tres meses seguidos el intervalo de la variable traspasa los límites del modelo. Así mismo se establece como alerta de precaución cuando el intervalo de la variable se sale de los límites por un mes. Se comprueba que para el caso de alerta de acción la pérdida que se recupera justifica el costo de re-calibración. Al contrario del caso de la alerta de precaución en donde no es rentable, e incluso aumenta la pérdida, al recalibrar el modelo.

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The problem of this study was to determine which publications available to Texas credit union managers are selected for reading and on what bases these choices are made. The study considered independent publications and those within the credit union industry. Survey respondents were Texas credit union managers. The study found that managers depend heavily on the two publications of the state trade association, two to three publications of the national trade association, and the state regulatory agency newsletter in cases of state-chartered credit unions. Independent publications function as secondary information sources. It was recommended that the Texas Credit Union League combine its two publications and that the Credit Union National Association consider combining publications.

In this letter we discuss the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market for European, Indian and US CDS entities during the financial crisis starting in 2007 using empirical First Significant Digit (FSD) distributions. We find out that on a time aggregated level the European and the US market obey empirical FSD distributions similar to the theoretical ones. Surprising differences are observed in the development of the FSD distributions between the US and the European market. While the FSD distribution of the US derivative market behaves nearly constant during the last financial crisis, we find huge fluctuations in the FSD distributions in the European market. One reason for these differences might be the possibility of a strategic default for US companies due to Chapter 11 and avoided contagion effects. / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

This thesis deals with credit risk and selected methods of its evalua- tion. It is focused on assumptions, calculation methods, results and specifics of the CreditMetrics and the CreditRisk+ models. The CreditRisk+ model analytically determines the portfolio credit losses distribution that is caused by defaults of counterparties. In the CreditMetrics model, the credit migration risk is addition- ally considered and the future portfolio value distribution is calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation. The third approach covered in this thesis is the Solvency II, the set of requirements proposed by the European Union for determination of regulatory capital for insurance companies. In the practical part the three ap- proaches are applied on a set of three portfolios of different credit quality. Their results, particularly the determined level of capital required to cover the risk of unexpected credit losses, are analyzed and compared.

The Consumer Loan Contract and its Securing by Suretyship As is self-evident from the title of the thesis, the subject matter of the thesis is the analysis of the concept of consumer credit and the securing thereof through suretyship. The starting point of the thesis was the newly-adopted Consumer Credit Act, which came into force on 1 January 2012. The aim of this thesis is to acquaint its readers with the relevant legislation, point out its shortcomings, and analyse the concept of suretyship as the most typical instrument used to secure consumer credit obligations, thus giving the reader a full picture of these legal concepts. The thesis is divided into nine chapters. The first chapter describes a contractual relationship under the credit contract, which is governed by legal regulations similar to those governing a consumer credit contract or a loan contract. This chapter analyses the essential terms of a credit contract, its origination and termination. Also analysed are the differences between a credit contract and a loan contract under the Civil Code. The second chapter describes the history of the consumer credit concept, in both domestic and European contexts. Particular emphasis is given to the individual directives of the European Community, currently the European Union, since they are of...

This thesis deals with credit risk and selected methods of its evalua- tion. It is focused on assumptions, calculation methods, results and specifics of the CreditMetrics and the CreditRisk+ models. The CreditRisk+ model analytically determines the portfolio credit losses distribution that is caused by defaults of counterparties. In the CreditMetrics model, the credit migration risk is addition- ally considered and the future portfolio value distribution is calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation. The third approach covered in this thesis is the Solvency II, the set of requirements proposed by the European Union for determination of regulatory capital for insurance companies. In the practical part the three ap- proaches are applied on a set of three portfolios of different credit quality. Their results, particularly the determined level of capital required to cover the risk of unexpected credit losses, are analyzed and compared.

The aim of the thesisis an analysis of EU credit rating agencies legal regulation in comparison with regulation in the USA. This analysis outlines the crucial and less important aspects of regulation in EU and USA. One of Chapters of this study is also describing the reflection of EU credit rating agencies regulation to Czech law. The thesis is composed of five chapters. First of them explains basic context and position of credit rating agencies. Chapter two is focused on EU legislation. Chapter Three briefly describes the position of credit rating agencies in the Czech Republic. Chapter Four illustrates the credit rating agencies legal regulation in USA. The text is mainly focused on Two of the EU regulations and, regarding the US legislation, on the Credit Rating Agency Reform Act, part of the Dodd - Frank Act and some of the more important rules conducted by Security Exchange Commission. The comparison of both legal systems is placed in Chapter Five and completed with commentary.