Credit value adjustment (CVA), as a quantified measure of counterparty credit risk for financial derivatives, is becoming an increasingly important concept for the financial industry. In this thesis, we evaluate CVA for an interest rate swap via a new structural default model. In our model, the asset value of a company is assumed to follow meromorphic Lévy processes with infinite jumps but finite variation. One important advantage of our model is that we are able to assume a random recovery rate which depends on default severity. Compared with the case with a fixed recovery rate, we show that the effect on CVA with a random recovery rate is significant. / May 2016

Usage of financial measurements that address the default probability of counterparties have been market practice for some time. Quantifying counterparty credit risk is usually done through the credit value adjustment which adjusts the value from a risk-free value to a risky value. When quantifying the credit value adjustment there is an important assumption that the financial exposure (value) and probability of counterparty default are independent variables. Wrong-way risk implies a relationship where exposure and probability of default are increasing together. It is an unfavourable relationship since as a party stands to gain more the probability of the counterparty not being able to pay also increase. When removing the independency assumption, the quantification of the credit value adjustment becomes more complex and there are several different methodologies with the aim to quantify CVA without the independency assumption. This paper analyses different methods of quantification and discusses different potential mitigators of wrong-way risk. But also, a case study searching for potential wrong-way exposures at a Swedish investment bank. The case study considers whether the exposures could potentially be influenced by wrong-way risk through stress tests on different value adjustments. The stress tests change the value adjustment and in turn imply wrong-way movements. At an investment bank that work towards minimizing risk it would be surprising to find large wrong-way risk exposures. But there are some interesting observations which could be deemed as wrong-way movements and would be interesting for the bank to investigate. Overall for the bank, wrong-way risk exposure cannot be claimed as significant. Conclusions involve modelling approach I deem the most useful in a perspective of calibration methodology, computer efficiency and deviation. Also, some suggestion of further development of this paper. / Under en tid har användning av finansiella mått som inkluderar motpartskreditrisk varit marknadsstandard. Kreditvärdesjustering används för att kvantifiera motpartskreditrisk och justerar värdet från ett riskfritt till ett värde som inkluderar motpartskreditrisk. När man justerar värdet används ett viktigt antagande som säger att den finansiella exponeringen (värdet) samt sannolikheten att motparten inte uppfyller sina förpliktelser är oberoende variabler. Felvägsrisk implicerar ett förhållande där exponeringen och sannolikheten att motparten inte kan uppfylla sina förpliktelser ökar tillsammans. Det är ett ofördelaktigt förhållande eftersom när en part kan tjäna mer ökar sannolikheten att motparten inte kan betala. När oberoende-antagandet tas bort blir kvantifieringen mer komplex, men det finns flera olika metoder som kvantifierar kreditvärdesjusteringen utan oberoende-antagandet. Denna uppsats analyserar olika kvantifieringsmetoder och diskuterar olika metoder för att minimera felvägsrisk. Uppsatsen innehåller även en fältstudie med syfte att hitta felvägsrisk bland exponeringarna hos en svensk investeringsbank. Fältstudien överväger huruvida exponeringarna eventuellt kan vara influerade av felvägsrisk genom att stressa olika mått för värdejustering. Stresstesterna påverkar värdejusteringen som i sin tur kan implicera felvägsrisk. Hos en svensk investeringsbank vars arbete involverar att minimera risk hade det varit förvånande att hitta stora exponeringar med felvägsrisk. Men det finns vissa observationer som tycks påvisa ofördelaktiga förhållanden som tyder på felvägsrisk. Dessa observationer skulle vara intressant för banken att se över utifrån den potentiella felvägsrisken. Överlag för banken kan jag inte påstå att exponeringen av felvägsrisk är signifikant. Slutsatserna involverar vilken modelleringsmetod som jag anser är mest användbar utifrån kalibrering, dataeffektivitet och potentiell avvikelse. Samt några förslag på vidare utveckling av denna rapport.

On définit le risque de contrepartie comme le risque de détérioration de la qualité de crédit entrainant une incapacité de la contrepartie à remplir ses obligations contractuelles. De nos jours, ce risque ne se limite plus aux entreprises, mais s'est également étendu aux banques et autres institutions financières. Par conséquent, toute entité participant aux marchés dérivés OTC est exposée à ce risque. La «Credit Value Adjustment» (CVA) est la valeur de marché du risque de contrepartie. En raison de sa complexité, la mise en œuvre de la CVA demeure l'un des plus grands défis auxquels les banques font face depuis la dernière crise. Pour la plupart d’entre elles, sa mise en production nécessite des changements majeurs de l’infrastructure actuelle. En outre, le régulateur, dont le but est de renforcer la stabilité des marchés financiers, s’est également intéressé à la CVA en introduisant une nouvelle charge en capital liée au risque de contrepartie. Les contributions de notre thèse à la littérature existante sur le sujet se trouvent essentiellement aux chapitres 2, 3 et 4 du manuscrit. Dans les chapitres 2 et 3, nous proposons deux méthodes innovatrices pour le calcul de la CVA. Le chapitre 4 est, quant à lui, entièrement dédié à l’étude de la charge en capital réglementaire sous la régulation FRTB-CVA. / Counterparty risk is defined as the risk of credit worthiness deterioration, making the counterparty unable to meet its contractual obligations. Nowadays, this risk is no longer confined to corporate clients but has spread out to other banks and financial institutions. As a consequence, any firm participating in the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market is exposed to this risk. Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) is the market value of counterparty credit risk. Implementation of CVA still remains one of the biggest challenges banks face since the last financial crisis, due to its complexity and cost of implementation. For most banks, pricing the whole CVA book requires major changes on the infrastructure they currently have. Furthermore, regulatory responses to the last financial turmoil aimed at strengthening the financial system by introducing new capital requirements. The Basel III regulatory standard was developed in this respect, prescribing an additional capital charge to cover CVA losses.Our contributions to the relevant literature are chapters 2, 3 and 4. In chapters 2 and 3, we propose two innovative approaches to compute CVA that allow a huge reduction in computational costs. Chapter 4 is devoted to the study of the CVA capital charge under the new FRTB-CVA regulation.

Yes / Following the global financial crisis, the measurement of counterparty credit risk has become an essential part of the Basel III accord with credit value adjustment being one of the most prominent components of this concept. In this study, we extend the Merton structural credit risk model for counterparty credit risk calculation in the context of calculating the credit value adjustment mainly by estimating the probability of default. We improve the Merton model in a variance-convoluted-gamma environment to include default dependence between counterparties through a linear factor decomposition framework. This allows one to tackle dependence through a systematic common component. Our set-up allows for easier, faster and more accurate fitting for the credit spread. Results confirm that use of the variance-gamma-convolution clearly solves the vanishing credit spread problem for short time-to-maturity or low leverage cases compared to a Brownian motion environment and its modifications. / Ahmet Sensoy gratefully acknowledges support from Turkish Academy of Sciences under its Outstanding Young Scientist Award Programme (TUBA-GEBIP). Frank J. Fabozzi acknowledges the financial support from EDHEC Business School.

The main target of this thesis is to summarize and explain the specifics of power markets and test application of models, which might be used especially in risk management area. Thesis starts with definition of market subjects, typology of traded contracts and description of market development with focus on Czech Republic. Thesis continues with development of theoretical concepts of short term/spot electricity markets and potential link between spot and forward electricity markets. After deriving of those microeconomic fundamental models we continue with stochastic models (Jump Diffusion Mean Reverting process and Extreme Value Theory) in order to depict patterns of spot and forward power contracts price volatility. Last chapter deals with credit risk specifics of power trading and develops model (using concept known as Credit Value Adjustment) to compare economic efficiency of OTC and exchange power trading. Developed and described models are tested on selected power markets, again with focus on Czech power market data set.

<p><strong>Problem: </strong>How does project managing appear in small IT-consulting companies and how does the project manager carry out their projects to create successful solutions for their customers?</p><p><strong>Purpose: </strong>The research has the purpose to analyze and review how IT-consults in small companies work and lead their projects to create profitability for the company, which leads to a good development for the company. </p><p><strong> </strong><strong>Methodology: </strong>The research is made on eight research objects in IT-consulting business and the sizes of them are between 1-49 employees. The research is made with a qualitative method to get closer to the research objects. Therefore the research is made in forms of interviews. The analysis is grounded on a comparison between the research data and the theories that are used in the research.</p><p><strong>Theoretical perspectives: </strong>The theories which have been used in the research are Involvement theory (Fill, 1999), PAFF-metoden (Marcusson & Ahlin, 2002), Projektledning (Tonnquist, 2006), Jakten på det effektiva projektet (Engwall, 1999) och Mervärde (Grönroos, 2002)</p><p><strong>Empirical foundation: </strong>The research data<strong> </strong>are founded from the interviews of the eight research objects, they have the fictive names: Gondor, Minas Morgul, Minas Tirith, Mordor, Osgiliath, Rivendell, Rohan and The Shire.</p><p><strong> </strong><strong>Analysis/Result:</strong> Each study object starts their projects with a pre-study phase, as the PAFF-method describes it. Each study object majorly involves their customers, which is equal to Fill’s theory about high involvement buying processes. This shows that the study objects are aware that they sell solutions that require high involvement of the customers. Four of the study object enjoy seeing that the customer contributes with high engagement and maintain a good level of ambition for the project; this is consistent with Engwall’s theory about organizational ideal types. </p><p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> The project manager chooses not to rupture the present institutionalism. The project manager initiates the project with a pre-study phase. The project manager is sure to involve their customers. The service guaranty the project manager uses is “problem-free-guaranty”. The role of the project manager is to plan and organize the project; the project manager should also be a good communicator.<strong></strong></p>

Problem: How does project managing appear in small IT-consulting companies and how does the project manager carry out their projects to create successful solutions for their customers? Purpose: The research has the purpose to analyze and review how IT-consults in small companies work and lead their projects to create profitability for the company, which leads to a good development for the company.   Methodology: The research is made on eight research objects in IT-consulting business and the sizes of them are between 1-49 employees. The research is made with a qualitative method to get closer to the research objects. Therefore the research is made in forms of interviews. The analysis is grounded on a comparison between the research data and the theories that are used in the research. Theoretical perspectives: The theories which have been used in the research are Involvement theory (Fill, 1999), PAFF-metoden (Marcusson &amp; Ahlin, 2002), Projektledning (Tonnquist, 2006), Jakten på det effektiva projektet (Engwall, 1999) och Mervärde (Grönroos, 2002) Empirical foundation: The research data are founded from the interviews of the eight research objects, they have the fictive names: Gondor, Minas Morgul, Minas Tirith, Mordor, Osgiliath, Rivendell, Rohan and The Shire.  Analysis/Result: Each study object starts their projects with a pre-study phase, as the PAFF-method describes it. Each study object majorly involves their customers, which is equal to Fill’s theory about high involvement buying processes. This shows that the study objects are aware that they sell solutions that require high involvement of the customers. Four of the study object enjoy seeing that the customer contributes with high engagement and maintain a good level of ambition for the project; this is consistent with Engwall’s theory about organizational ideal types.  Conclusion: The project manager chooses not to rupture the present institutionalism. The project manager initiates the project with a pre-study phase. The project manager is sure to involve their customers. The service guaranty the project manager uses is “problem-free-guaranty”. The role of the project manager is to plan and organize the project; the project manager should also be a good communicator.

The paper is concerned with counterparty credit risk management for credit default swaps in the presence of default contagion. In particular, we study the impact of default contagion on credit value adjustments such as the BCCVA (Bilateral Collateralized Credit Value Adjustment) of Brigo et al. 2012 and on the performance of various collateralization strategies. We use the incomplete-information model of Frey and Schmidt (2012) as vehicle for our analysis. We find that taking contagion effects into account is important for the effectiveness of the strategy and we derive refined collateralization strategies to account for contagion effects. (authors' abstract) / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

Public-Private-Partnership (P3) is gaining momentum as the delivery method for the development of public infrastructure. These projects, however, are exposed to economic risks. If the private parties are not comfortable with the level of the risks, they would not participate in the project and, as a result, the infrastructure will most likely not be realized. As an incentive for participation in the P3 project, private parties are sometimes offered guarantees against unfavorable economic risks. Therefore, the valuation of these guarantees is essential for deciding whether or not to participate in the project. While previous works focused on the valuation of guarantees, the incorporation of credit risk in the value of the P3 projects and the guarantees has been neglected. The effect of credit risk can be taken into account by using the rigorous Credit Value Adjustment method (CVA). CVA is a computationally demanding method that the valuation methods currently in the literature are not capable of handling. This research offers a novel approach for the valuation of guarantees and P3 projects which is computationally superior to the existing methods. Because of this computational efficiency, CVA can be implemented to account for credit risk. For the development of this method, a continuous stochastic differential equation (SDE) is derived from the forecasted curve of an economic risk. Using the SDE, the partial differential equation (PDE) governing the value of the guarantees will be derived. Then, the PDE will be solved using Finite Difference Method (FDM). A new feature for this method is that it obtains exercise strategies for the Australian guarantees. The present work extends the literature by providing a valuation method for the cases that multiple risks affect P3 projects. It also presents an approach for the valuation of the Asian style guarantee, a contract which reimburses the private party based on the average of risk factor. Finally, a hypothetical case study illustrates the implementation of the FDM-based valuation method and CVA to obtain the value of the P3 project and the guarantees adjusted for the counterparty credit risk.

Public-Private-Partnership (P3) is gaining momentum as the delivery method for the development of public infrastructure. These projects, however, are exposed to economic risks. If the private parties are not comfortable with the level of the risks, they would not participate in the project and, as a result, the infrastructure will most likely not be realized. As an incentive for participation in the P3 project, private parties are sometimes offered guarantees against unfavorable economic risks. Therefore, the valuation of these guarantees is essential for deciding whether or not to participate in the project. While previous works focused on the valuation of guarantees, the incorporation of credit risk in the value of the P3 projects and the guarantees has been neglected. The effect of credit risk can be taken into account by using the rigorous Credit Value Adjustment method (CVA). CVA is a computationally demanding method that the valuation methods currently in the literature are not capable of handling. This research offers a novel approach for the valuation of guarantees and P3 projects which is computationally superior to the existing methods. Because of this computational efficiency, CVA can be implemented to account for credit risk. For the development of this method, a continuous stochastic differential equation (SDE) is derived from the forecasted curve of an economic risk. Using the SDE, the partial differential equation (PDE) governing the value of the guarantees will be derived. Then, the PDE will be solved using Finite Difference Method (FDM). A new feature for this method is that it obtains exercise strategies for the Australian guarantees. The present work extends the literature by providing a valuation method for the cases that multiple risks affect P3 projects. It also presents an approach for the valuation of the Asian style guarantee, a contract which reimburses the private party based on the average of risk factor. Finally, a hypothetical case study illustrates the implementation of the FDM-based valuation method and CVA to obtain the value of the P3 project and the guarantees adjusted for the counterparty credit risk.