Thesis (PhD(Engineering)(Civil Engineering)) --University of Pretoria, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references.

O presente trabalho busca compilar os fatores envolvidos na seguranÃa de barragens de terra, identificando os principais tÃpicos relacionados à seguranÃa e ao controle dos riscos que elas possuem. Apresenta um breve histÃrico do processo das regulamentaÃÃes sobre seguranÃa de barragem no cenÃrio internacional e nacional, enfatizando a importÃncia e os desafios no trato de questÃes legais que comprometem a seguranÃa de nossas barragens. Faz uma exposiÃÃo dos principais acidentes e incidentes registrados no perÃodo de formulaÃÃo e tramitaÃÃo da recente legislaÃÃo aprovada no Brasil sobre seguranÃa de barragens, Lei 12.334 de 20 de setembro de 2010. Descreve uma metodologia de avaliaÃÃo de risco com seus princÃpios e vantagens. Apresenta um estudo sobre o rompimento da barragem de terra AlgodÃes I, construÃda no municÃpio de Cocal, Norte do Estado do PiauÃ, enfatizando o histÃrico da obra, as caracterÃsticas do empreendimento, aspectos de projeto e seus mÃtodos construtivos. Faz uma anÃlise dos elementos de seguranÃa desta barragem com base na bibliografia consultada e aplicaÃÃo da metodologia descrita, objetivando identificar o potencial de risco que a barragem representava antes do seu rompimento. A partir da investigaÃÃo dos antecedentes e respectivas causas de vinculaÃÃo remota e imediatas ao incidente à possÃvel avaliar alguns dos fatores que contribuÃram com o rompimento da barragem, subsidiado nos relatÃrios tÃcnicos emitidos por especialista e/ou instituiÃÃes competentes. O fator condicionante para o colapso da barragem AlgodÃes I foi à ausÃncia de um dispositivo legal imperativo e a necessidade de uma fiscalizaÃÃo intensa no cumprimento dos preceitos estabelecidos pela lei para garantir a seguranÃa da barragem, e que devem ser levadas em consideraÃÃo para evitar riscos de colapso no tipo de estrutura estudado, jà que tal barragem representava um potencial de risco alto conforme metodologia especifica apresentada. / This study aims to compile the factors involved in safety earth dams, identifying key topics related to the security and control of the risks they have. Presents a brief history of the process of dam safety regulations in the international and national scene, emphasizing the importance and challenges in dealing with legal issues that compromise the safety of our dams. Gave a presentation of the main accidents and incidents recorded in the formulation and processing period of legislation passed in Brazil on dam safety, Law 12.334 of September 20, 2010. Describes a risk assessment methodology with its principles and advantages. Presents a study of the disruption of the earth dam AlgodÃes I, built in the city of Cocal, North of Piauà State, emphasizing the history of the work, project characteristics, design features and their construction methods. An analysis of the security features of this dam based on bibliography and application of the described methodology in order to identify the potential risk that the dam stood before his break. From the research of the past and the causes of remote and immediate link to the incident is possible to evaluate some of the factors that contributed to the dam break, subsidized in the technical reports issued by expert and / or competent institutions. The determining factor for the collapse of AlgodÃes I dam was the absence of a mandatory legal provision and the need for intensive supervision in compliance with the rules established by law to ensure dam safety, and that should be taken into account to avoid risk collapse on the type of structure studied, as this dam posed a high risk potential as specific methodology presented.

Large dams are critical infrastructures whose failure could produce high economic and social consequences. For this reason, in recent years, the application of quantitative risk analysis to inform dam safety governance has risen significantly worldwide. This thesis is focused in how computed quantitative risk results can be useful to inform dam safety management. It proposes different methods and metrics to deal with the two key issues identified in this process: how risk results can be managed to prioritize potential investments and how uncertainty should be considered in quantitative risk models to inform decision making. Firstly, it is demonstrated that risk reduction indicators are a useful tool to obtain prioritization sequences of potential safety investments, especially in portfolios with a high number of dams. Different indicators for dam safety are assessed, analyzing their relation with equity and efficiency principles. Secondly, it is proposed to consider explicitly and independently natural and epistemic uncertainty in quantitative risk models for dams, following the recommendations developed by other industries. Specifically, a procedure is developed to separate both types of uncertainty in the fragility analysis for the sliding failure mode of gravity dams. Finally, both issues are combined to propose different metrics that analyze the effect of epistemic uncertainty in the prioritization of investments based on risk results. These metrics allow considering the convenience of conducting additional uncertainty reduction actions, like site tests, surveys or more detailed analysis. / Las grandes presas son infraestructuras críticas cuyo fallo puede producir importantes consecuencias económicas y sociales. Por este motivo, en los últimos años la aplicación de técnicas de análisis de riesgos para informar a la gobernanza de la seguridad de presas se ha extendido por todo el mundo. La presente tesis se centra en analizar cómo los resultados calculados de riesgo pueden ser útiles para la toma de decisiones en seguridad de presas. Para ello, se proponen diferentes métodos e indicadores que tratan los dos principales problemas identificados en este proceso: cómo gestionar los resultados de riesgo para priorizar potenciales inversiones en seguridad y cómo debe ser considerada la incertidumbre en los modelos de riesgo para orientar a la toma de decisiones. En primer lugar, se muestra como los indicadores de reducción de riesgo son una herramienta útil y eficaz para obtener secuencias de priorización de potenciales medidas de reducción de riesgo, especialmente en la gestión conjunta de grandes grupos de presas. Por ello, los diferentes indicadores para la gestión de la seguridad de presas son evaluados, analizando su relación con los principios de eficiencia y equidad. En segundo lugar, se propone considerar la incertidumbre epistémica y la incertidumbre natural de forma independiente dentro de los modelos de riesgo cuantitativos para presas, siguiendo las recomendaciones de otras industrias. En particular, se propone un procedimiento para separar ambos tipos de incertidumbre en el análisis del modo de fallo por deslizamiento en presas de gravedad. Finalmente, ambos puntos se combinan para proponer diferentes índices que analicen la influencia de la incertidumbre epistémica sobre las secuencias de priorización obtenidas mediante indicadores de reducción de riesgo, y por lo tanto, sobre la toma de decisiones. De esta forma, estos índices permiten analizar la necesidad de realizar acciones adicionales para reducir la incertidumbre epistémica, como ensayos, sondeos o estudios detallados. / Les grans preses son infraestructures crítiques que si fallen poden produir importants conseqüències econòmiques i socials. Per aquest motiu, en el últims anys la aplicació de tècniques d'anàlisis de rics per a informar a la governança de seguretat de preses s'ha estès per tot el món. Aquesta tesi es centra en analitzar com els resultats calculats de risc poden ser útils per a prendre decisions en seguretat de preses. Per a això, es proposen diferents mètodes i indicadors que tracten el dos principals problemes identificats en aquest procés: com gestionar els resultats de risc per a prioritzar potencials inversions en seguretat i com el models de risc han de considerar la incertesa per a orientar a la presa de decisions. En primer lloc, es mostra com el indicadors de reducció de riscs son una ferramenta útil i eficaç per a obtindré seqüències de priorització de potencials mesures de reducció de risc, especialment en la gestió conjunta de grans grups de preses. Per això, els diferents indicadors per a la gestió de la seguretat de preses son avaluats, analitzant la seua relació amb els principis d'eficiència i equitat. En segon lloc, es proposa considerar la incertesa natural i la incertesa epistèmica de forma independent dintre del models quantitatius de risc per a preses, seguint les recomanacions d'altres industries. En particular, es proposa un procediment per a separar el dos tipus d'incertesa en el anàlisis del fall per lliscament en preses de gravetat. Finalment, el dos punts es combinen per a proposar índexs que analitzen la influència de la incertesa epistèmica sobre les seqüencies de priorització de mesures obtingudes amb els indicadors de reducció de risc, y per tant, sobre la presa de decisions. D'aquesta forma, aquests índexs permeten analitzar la necessitat de realitzar acciones per a reduir la incertesa, como assajos, sondejos geotècnics o estudis de detall. / Morales Torres, A. (2017). Evaluation of the impact of risk reduction indicators and epistemic uncertainty in dam safety governance [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/79739 / TESIS

The old water system in Sala, formerly belonging to thesilver mine, is analysed with regard to dam safety focusing onthe hydrological aspects. The hydrological safety of the riskclass I dams in the area, built in the 16th century, is notconsidered adequate according to the Swedish guidelines fordesign flood determination. A review is made of internationalprinciples for design flood determination. The overview showsthat there is no common principle used internationally whendealing with design flood for dams. In some countries there isan ambition to implement risk assessment for evaluation ofhydrological safety. However, at present Australia is the onlycountry that has fully integrated risk assessment in theirdesign flood guidelines. A risk assessment of the water systemin Sala shows that neither increasing the spillway capacity norimplementing flood mitigation measures in the watershed haveany significant effect on dam safety in the area. Nothingindicates that watersheds with a high presence of mires, likein the Sala case, should be particularly well suited forimplementing flood mitigation in the watershed as a dam safetymeasure. In order to safely handle the design flood in Sala andavoid dam failure due to overtopping the flood needs to bediverted from the water system. <b>Key words:</b>dam safety; design flood; flood mitigation;hydrological; risk assessment

In recent years, the United States has seen a high demand for dam rehabilitation projects as most dam infrastructure has started to reach or exceed the expected life span of 50-70 years. Rehabilitation projects can be very expensive, however, and the funding options for dam owners are limited. To raise awareness, organizations such as ASDSO and the Virginia DCR release cost estimates every few years to encourage more investment in dam infrastructure. Unfortunately, many cost estimates have been made with limited data and outdated methodologies. This research collects a new sample of cost data for Virginia dam rehabilitation projects and uses it to assess key factors for cost estimating. Factors such as height, drainage area, hazard classification, and ownership type were used to make regression models that predict the cost of addressing Virginia's non-compliant dams. This study estimates that approximately $300 million is needed to address Virginia's 98 deficient high hazard, local government owned dams and that $122 million of that estimate is need for SWCD dams alone. / Master of Science / Dam rehabilitation refers to the repair, removal, or upgrade of an existing dam structure. Rehabilitation projects are done when dams start to exceed their intended life span (approximately 50-60 years) or when policy makers change the required safety standards. The demand for dam rehabilitation has been increasing for the past several years as more and more dams are being identified as unsafe, but the available funding for rehabilitation projects is limited and competitive to obtain for dam owners. To raise awareness, dam safety agencies release cost estimates every few years to encourage government leaders and the general public to take action. However, these estimates need to be taken with caution as they are often made with limited data availability and outdated methodologies. This research collects a new sample of cost data for Virginia dam rehabilitation projects that have occurred in the last 15 years. Dam characteristics such as height, watershed size, downstream risk potential, and ownership type were used to form equations that predict the cost of addressing Virginia's non-compliant dams. This study estimates that approximately $300 million is needed to address Virginia's 98 deficient high hazard, local government owned dams and that $122 million of that estimate is need for Virginia's Soil and Water Conservation District dams alone.

<p>A lot of mine waste rock and tailings arise from all mining processes and have to be stored in an appropriate way. Tailings are deposited in impoundments retained by tailings dams. The objective of tailings dams is to retain the slurry from the mining process and in that way prevent spill into the surroundings that might be harmful for the environment. Tailings dams are often constructed as staged embankments so that construction costs and demand of materials are spread more evenly over the period of deposition.</p><p>The objective of this thesis has been to compile information about and evaluate events at Swedish tailings dams and also to develop a collective database for all Swedish mining companies for all tailings dams and all events that occur at tailings dams.</p><p>Information about 60 events at Swedish tailings dams has been gathered and evaluated. The evaluation has been performed by comparison between and analysis of individual parameters and also by use of a multivariate statistical method called PLS. The statistical analysis shows a decrease in the numbers of events during the last five years, which indicates improved dam safety within the mining industry. The analysis also shows that severe events and the human factor might be related when it comes to the initiating cause of the event. Further relations between the parameters and the severity of the events can be seen from the PLS-analysis, for example that low and short tailings dams to a greater extent are subjected to severe events. To be able to draw more reliable conclusions further studies with a more complete basic data are needed.</p><p>This work has shown a need of a collective database within the Swedish mining industry for tailings dams and occurring events at tailings dams so that more complete basic data could be obtained for future studies. A structure for such a database has been developed in Microsoft Access 2000. The aim of the database is to facilitate feedback within the mining industry and to gather comprehensive data for future statistical evaluations.</p> / <p>Vid alla gruvprocesser skapas stora mängder restprodukter i form av gråberg och anrikningssand som måste tas om hand på lämpligt sätt. Anrikningssanden deponeras tillsammans med vatten från gruvprocessen i magasin omgärdade av dammvallar, s.k. gruvdammar. Gruvdammar har som syfte att hålla kvar anrikningssand och vatten och måste vara stabila så att de skyddar omgivningen från utsläpp av anrikningssand som skulle kunna vara skadligt för miljön. En gruvdamm byggs ofta upp i etapper eftersom byggkostnaderna och behovet av dammfyllnadsmaterial då sprids över tiden.</p><p>Syftet med arbetet har varit att sammanställa och utvärdera händelser vid svenska gruvdammar samt att utforma ett för gruvindustrin gemensamt dammregister och felrapporteringssystem.</p><p>60 händelser vid svenska gruvdammar har sammanställts och utvärderats. Utvärderingen har genomförts dels genom att enskilda parametrar jämförts och analyserats och dels med hjälp av den multivariata analysmetoden PLS. Den statistiska analysen visar på en minskning i antal händelser under de senaste fem åren, vilket tyder på ett förbättrat dammsäkerhetsarbete inom gruvindustrin. Analysen har kunnat uppvisa ett samband mellan allvarliga händelser och den mänskliga faktorn när det gäller vad det är som initierat händelserna. Genom PLS-analysen har ytterligare samband mellan de undersökta parametrarna och allvarlighetsgraden av händelserna kunnat utläsas, bl.a. visar analysen att låga och korta dammar i större utsträckning drabbas av allvarliga händelser jämfört med höga och långa dammar. För att säkra slutsatser ska kunna dras krävs dock vidare studier med ett mer komplett statistiskt underlag.</p><p>Examensarbetet har påvisat ett behov av ett branchgemensamt damm- och felrapporteringsregister för att ett mer komplett underlag ska kunna erhållas i framtiden. En färdig databasstruktur för ett sådant dammregister och felrapporteringsregister för svenska gruvdammar har utformats. Databasen är uppbyggd i Microsoft Access 2000 och är tänkt att underlätta erfarenhetsåterföring inom branschen samt att ge ett underlag för framtida statistiska undersökningar.</p>

Orientador: Milton Dall'Áglio Sobrinho / Banca: Geraldo de Freitas Maciel / Banca: Carlos Henrique de Almeida Couto Medeiros / Resumo: No Brasil existe um número significativo de pessoas que residem em regiões situadas a jusante de barragens. A Lei 12.334/2010 determina aos proprietários de barragens a elaboração de um Plano de Segurança e um Plano de Ação Emergencial para barragens classificadas como passíveis de provocar Dano Potencial Alto. O presente trabalho busca avaliar o comportamento das ondas de cheia geradas por vazões induzidas e vazão de ruptura hipotética da barragem da usina hidrelétrica de Três Irmãos, da CESP - Companhia Energética de São Paulo, para elaboração de um Plano de Ação Emergencial. Foram avaliados os tempos de chegada da onda, as cotas e vazões máximas alcançadas em diferentes pontos do curso d'água, para diferentes cenários. São apresentados mapas de inundação indicando a área atingida pela onda de ruptura que serviram de base para definição de plano de evacuação da população impactada. Foi usado o modelo hidrodinâmico unidimensional HEC-RAS, calibrado a partir da reprodução de níveis d'água históricos. Os hidrogramas de ruptura gerados a partir de diferentes equações resultaram em vazões máximas entre 20.915 e 40.507 m3/s, com tempos de abertura de brecha entre 1,0 e 14,0 h. A onda de cheia foi propagada em uma extensão de 32 km desde a usina até a confluência com o rio Paraná. Os resultados mostraram pouca variação tanto na extensão quanto no tempo de submersão das áreas atingidas pela inundação, com diferença sensível apenas no tempo de chegada do pico. Além disso, as simulações em regime permanente e variável não apresentaram grandes variações nas cotas máximas observadas a jusante, o que mostra que a cheia gerada pela ruptura tem características de onda cinemática, devido ao longo tempo de esvaziamento do reservatório. Tendo em vista que a barragem de Jupiá, localizada a jusante, opera a fio d'água e pode controlar vazões até cerca de 50.000 m3/s, não se ... / Abstract: In Brazil there is a significant number of people living in regions located downstream of Dams. The law 12.334/2010 determines that the dam's owners have to elaborate a Security Plan and an Emergency Action Plan for dams classified as likely to cause High Potential Damage. The present study attempts o evaluate the behavior of waves generated by full flow and flow induced by hypothetical dam rupture of the Três Irmãos hydroelectric, of CESP, Energetic Company of São Paulo, for preparation of an Emergency Action Plan. We evaluated the arrival times of the wave, quotas and peak flows achieved at different points of the watercourse, for different scenarios. Flood maps are presented indicating the area affected by the flood wave that served as the basis for defining evacuation plan of the affected population. It was used the one-dimensional hydrodynamic model HEC-HAS, calibrated from the reproduction of historical water levels. The outflow hydrographs generated from different available equations resulted in peak flows between 20.915 and 40.507 m³/s, with peak times between 1 and 14 h. The dam breach flood wave was propagated along a 32 km reach, from the plant to the confluence with the Paraná River. The results showed little variation in both the extent and the time of submersion of areas affected by flooding, with only appreciable difference in arrival time of the peak. Furthermore, the simulations in steady and unsteady flow regimes showed no large variations of the downstream maximum water depth, suggesting that the resulted flood wave propagates with characteristics of a kinematic wave, due to the long depletion time of the reservoir. The risk of cascade rupture was not identified, considering that at the downstream, the Jupiá dam operates at constant level and can control flow rates up to 50.000 m³/s. From the results and the methodology was elaborated an PAE - Emergency Action Plan for the Três Irmãos ... / Mestre

O tema segurança de barragens vem adquirindo destaque no cenário brasileiro. Isso se deu tendo em vista os acidentes ocorridos e a recente lei n° 12.334, aprovada em setembro de 2010, que estabeleceu normas e padrões. Desta maneira, os empreendedores voltaram sua atenção para esse tema, resultando em uma grande demanda de ferramentas que possibilitem a adequação de suas barragens à legislação. Esse estudo, então, tem como objetivo apresentar e avaliar um sistema de composição de modelos matemáticos que podem ser utilizados na elaboração dos Planos de Ação Emergencial (PAE). O estudo apresenta uma breve revisão sobre o tema segurança de barragens, identificando quais produtos devem ser buscados por meio da utilização dos modelos. Quanto à composição de modelos, tem-se, inicialmente, o modelo de previsão de precipitação que fornece os dados para o modelo hidrológico sendo que este, por sua vez, fornece dados para o hidrodinâmico. Neste último estão incluídos também o modelo de formação da brecha e o cálculo de routing dos reservatórios. Com os resultados de nível dágua, as manchas de inundação são traçadas com o auxílio dos modelos digitais de terreno (MDT). Os aplicativos utilizados em cada modelo foram o ETA no modelo de previsão de precipitação, SMAP como modelo hidrológico e o CLiv+ como modelo hidrodinâmico. O MDT utilizado foi o gerado por meio das curvas de nível do IBGE e pontos levantados no local. Assim, esses modelos foram utilizados para simulações das barragens dos rios Pardo e Mogi Guaçu, sendo elas a UHE Caconde, a UHE Euclides da Cunha, a UHE Limoeiro e a PCH Mogi Guaçu. Desta forma foi realizada a calibração destes modelos e a simulação de vazões acima da de restrição e de cenários de rompimento. Esses resultados foram gerados para um estudo realizado pela Fundação Centro Tecnológico de Hidráulica para a AES Tietê denominado Sistema de Gerenciamento de Ações Emergenciais (SGAE). Assim, para validação do sistema de composição de modelos e para verificação de pontos de melhoria, foram realizadas avaliações do sistema. Essas foram a comparação dos dados de previsão de precipitação com dados observados, comparação entre diferentes MDTs e comparação entre os aplicativos CLiv+ e o HEC-RAS. / Recent dam failures and also the approval of Law n° 12.334, establishing rules and standards to be followed in dam safety management, made dam safety area gain prominence in the Brazilian scenario in the last years. Dams owners focused their attention into this theme increasing the demand for tools in order to adequate theirs dam documentation to the requirements of the law. This study presents and evaluate an ensemble of mathematical models that can be used in scenarios analysis that are usually considered in Emergency Action Plans EAP elaboration. The study includes a review about dam safety regulation and a group of models that can be applied for impact evaluation, establishing data and information needed. Models considered include the forecast precipitation model, that provides data to the hydrological model which, in its turn, provides the information for the hydraulic model. This latter also include the dam breaching model and the reservoir routing calculation model. The flooded area maps are obtained using the results of water level and digital elevation model. This arrange of models apply the ETA as the forecast precipitation model, the SMAP model as the hydrologic model and Cliv+ as the hydraulic model. The digital terrain model used was created by using the cartographic base from IBGE and a point elevation survey in the study area. These models were utilized in simulations involving dams located at the Pardo and Mogi Guaçu Rivers, in Sao Paulo State, named UHE Caconde, UHE Euclides da Cunha, UHE Limoeiro and PCH Mogi Guaçu. Models were calibrated under observed flow conditions and prospective simulations were done considering different scenarios like design hydrographs and failure, under a research project developed by Fundação Centro Tecnológico de Hidráulica and AES Tietê. To validate the system and identify improvement points, a comparison of forecasted precipitation and water levels were carried out considering observed data, different DTMs and hydraulic models (CLIV + and HEC-RAS).

O tema segurança de barragens vem adquirindo destaque no cenário brasileiro. Isso se deu tendo em vista os acidentes ocorridos e a recente lei n° 12.334, aprovada em setembro de 2010, que estabeleceu normas e padrões. Desta maneira, os empreendedores voltaram sua atenção para esse tema, resultando em uma grande demanda de ferramentas que possibilitem a adequação de suas barragens à legislação. Esse estudo, então, tem como objetivo apresentar e avaliar um sistema de composição de modelos matemáticos que podem ser utilizados na elaboração dos Planos de Ação Emergencial (PAE). O estudo apresenta uma breve revisão sobre o tema segurança de barragens, identificando quais produtos devem ser buscados por meio da utilização dos modelos. Quanto à composição de modelos, tem-se, inicialmente, o modelo de previsão de precipitação que fornece os dados para o modelo hidrológico sendo que este, por sua vez, fornece dados para o hidrodinâmico. Neste último estão incluídos também o modelo de formação da brecha e o cálculo de routing dos reservatórios. Com os resultados de nível dágua, as manchas de inundação são traçadas com o auxílio dos modelos digitais de terreno (MDT). Os aplicativos utilizados em cada modelo foram o ETA no modelo de previsão de precipitação, SMAP como modelo hidrológico e o CLiv+ como modelo hidrodinâmico. O MDT utilizado foi o gerado por meio das curvas de nível do IBGE e pontos levantados no local. Assim, esses modelos foram utilizados para simulações das barragens dos rios Pardo e Mogi Guaçu, sendo elas a UHE Caconde, a UHE Euclides da Cunha, a UHE Limoeiro e a PCH Mogi Guaçu. Desta forma foi realizada a calibração destes modelos e a simulação de vazões acima da de restrição e de cenários de rompimento. Esses resultados foram gerados para um estudo realizado pela Fundação Centro Tecnológico de Hidráulica para a AES Tietê denominado Sistema de Gerenciamento de Ações Emergenciais (SGAE). Assim, para validação do sistema de composição de modelos e para verificação de pontos de melhoria, foram realizadas avaliações do sistema. Essas foram a comparação dos dados de previsão de precipitação com dados observados, comparação entre diferentes MDTs e comparação entre os aplicativos CLiv+ e o HEC-RAS. / Recent dam failures and also the approval of Law n° 12.334, establishing rules and standards to be followed in dam safety management, made dam safety area gain prominence in the Brazilian scenario in the last years. Dams owners focused their attention into this theme increasing the demand for tools in order to adequate theirs dam documentation to the requirements of the law. This study presents and evaluate an ensemble of mathematical models that can be used in scenarios analysis that are usually considered in Emergency Action Plans EAP elaboration. The study includes a review about dam safety regulation and a group of models that can be applied for impact evaluation, establishing data and information needed. Models considered include the forecast precipitation model, that provides data to the hydrological model which, in its turn, provides the information for the hydraulic model. This latter also include the dam breaching model and the reservoir routing calculation model. The flooded area maps are obtained using the results of water level and digital elevation model. This arrange of models apply the ETA as the forecast precipitation model, the SMAP model as the hydrologic model and Cliv+ as the hydraulic model. The digital terrain model used was created by using the cartographic base from IBGE and a point elevation survey in the study area. These models were utilized in simulations involving dams located at the Pardo and Mogi Guaçu Rivers, in Sao Paulo State, named UHE Caconde, UHE Euclides da Cunha, UHE Limoeiro and PCH Mogi Guaçu. Models were calibrated under observed flow conditions and prospective simulations were done considering different scenarios like design hydrographs and failure, under a research project developed by Fundação Centro Tecnológico de Hidráulica and AES Tietê. To validate the system and identify improvement points, a comparison of forecasted precipitation and water levels were carried out considering observed data, different DTMs and hydraulic models (CLIV + and HEC-RAS).

" Estimating Life Loss for Dam Safety Risk Assessment" explores the need for a new life-loss model in dam safety risk assessment, historical foundations on which that model can be built, and issues that are critical for a successful life-loss model to address. After critiquing existing life-loss models, the work presents a summary of historical insights that were derived by characterizing flood events on the level of subpopulations at risk, using nearly l 00 carefully defined variables. Building upon both conceptual and historical insights, the work culminates by presenting the conceptual basis for a new life-loss model that remains under development. Chapter I introduces the topic of dam safety risk assessment and the central role that life-loss estimation plays in that field. Chapter II discusses important preliminary considerations in model development. Chapter Ill provides a detailed review of previous life-loss models that pertained to floods, including a critique of each. Chapter IV explores the DeKay-McClelland model in detail and raises serious concerns regarding its future use. Chapter V defines nearly l 00 variables and their respective categories for use in characterizing flood events. Chapter VI provides a detailed outline of historical insights that relate to flood events in one of 18 logical categories. Chapter VII proposes the framework for a new conceptual life-loss model-a model that is still under development and has yet to be refined or offered for testing-with sufficient details to indicate how it was developed and how it might be used. Chapter VIII provides a summary, conclusions, and recommendations for future research. Appendices A through D provide material related to over 900 pages of unpublished working documents developed while characterizing 38 flood events and nearly 200 subpopulations at risk. Appendix E offers a summary of existing software that, given additional development, might prove useful to life-loss estimation in dam safety risk assessment.