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<p>The old water system in Sala, formerly belonging to thesilver mine, is analysed with regard to dam safety focusing onthe hydrological aspects. The hydrological safety of the riskclass I dams in the area, built in the 16th century, is notconsidered adequate according to the Swedish guidelines fordesign flood determination. A review is made of internationalprinciples for design flood determination. The overview showsthat there is no common principle used internationally whendealing with design flood for dams. In some countries there isan ambition to implement risk assessment for evaluation ofhydrological safety. However, at present Australia is the onlycountry that has fully integrated risk assessment in theirdesign flood guidelines. A risk assessment of the water systemin Sala shows that neither increasing the spillway capacity norimplementing flood mitigation measures in the watershed haveany significant effect on dam safety in the area. Nothingindicates that watersheds with a high presence of mires, likein the Sala case, should be particularly well suited forimplementing flood mitigation in the watershed as a dam safetymeasure. In order to safely handle the design flood in Sala andavoid dam failure due to overtopping the flood needs to bediverted from the water system.</p><p><b>Key words:</b>dam safety; design flood; flood mitigation;hydrological; risk assessment</p>

The old water system in Sala, formerly belonging to thesilver mine, is analysed with regard to dam safety focusing onthe hydrological aspects. The hydrological safety of the riskclass I dams in the area, built in the 16th century, is notconsidered adequate according to the Swedish guidelines fordesign flood determination. A review is made of internationalprinciples for design flood determination. The overview showsthat there is no common principle used internationally whendealing with design flood for dams. In some countries there isan ambition to implement risk assessment for evaluation ofhydrological safety. However, at present Australia is the onlycountry that has fully integrated risk assessment in theirdesign flood guidelines. A risk assessment of the water systemin Sala shows that neither increasing the spillway capacity norimplementing flood mitigation measures in the watershed haveany significant effect on dam safety in the area. Nothingindicates that watersheds with a high presence of mires, likein the Sala case, should be particularly well suited forimplementing flood mitigation in the watershed as a dam safetymeasure. In order to safely handle the design flood in Sala andavoid dam failure due to overtopping the flood needs to bediverted from the water system. <b>Key words:</b>dam safety; design flood; flood mitigation;hydrological; risk assessment

Thesis (MScEng (Civil Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The primary aim of this study was to evaluate, calibrate and verify the SDF run-off coefficients at a quaternary catchment level in the C5 secondary drainage region (SDF basin 9) and other selected SDF basins in South Africa by establishing the catchment parameters and SDF/probability distribution-ratios. The probability distribution-ratios were based on the comparison between the flood peaks estimated by the SDF method and statistical analyses of observed flow data. These quaternary run-off coefficients were then compared with the existing regional SDF run-off coefficients, whilst the run-off coefficient adjustment factors as proposed by Van Bladeren (2005) were also evaluated. It was evident from this study that the calibrated run-off coefficients obtained are spread around those of Alexander (2003), but were generally lower in magnitude. The adjusted run-off coefficients (Van Bladeren, 2005) had a tendency to decrease in magnitude with increasing recurrence interval, whilst some of the adjusted run-off coefficients exceeded unity. The extent to which the original SDF method overestimated the magnitude and frequency of flood peaks varied form basin to basin, with the SDF/probability distribution-ratios the highest in the Highveld and southern coastal regions with summer convective precipitation. In these regions the flood peak-ratios were occasionally different by up to a factor of 3 or even more. The southern coastal regions with winter orographic/frontal precipitation demonstrated the best flood peak-ratios, varying from 0.78 to 1.63. The adjusted SDF method results (Van Bladeren, 2005) were only better in 26% of all the basins under consideration when compared to those estimated by the original SDF method. On average, the adjusted SDF/probability distribution-ratios varied between 0.30 and 6.58, which is unacceptable. The calibrated version of the SDF method proved to be the most accurate in all the basins under consideration. On average, the calibrated SDF/probability distribution-ratios varied between 0.85 and 1.15, whilst at some basins and individual return periods, less accurate results were evident. Verification tests were conducted in catchments not considered during the calibration process with a view to establish whether the calibrated run-off coefficients are predictable and to confirm that the method is reliable. The verification results showed that the calibrated/verified SDF method is the most accurate and similar trends were evident in all the basins under consideration. On average, the verified SDF/probability distribution-ratios varied between 0.82 and 1.19, except in SDF basins 6 and 21 where the 5 to 20-year return period flood peaks were overestimated by 41% and 56% respectively, which is still conservative. The secondary aim of this study was to develop a customised, user-friendly Design Flood Estimation Tool (DFET) in a Microsoft Office Excel/Visual Basic for Applications environment in order to assess the use and applicability of the various design flood estimation methods. The developed DFET will provide designers with a software tool for the rapid investigation and evaluation of alternative design flood estimation methods either at a regional or site specific scale. The focus user group of the application will comprises of engineering technicians, engineering technologist and engineers employed at civil engineering consultants, not necessarily specialists in the field of flood hydrology. The DFET processed all the catchment, meteorological (precipitation) and hydrological (observed flows) data used as input for the various design flood estimation methods. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die primêre doelwit van die studie was om die SDF-afloopkoëffisiënte op ‘n kwartinêre opvangsgebiedvlak in die C5-sekondêre dreineringsgebied (SDFopvangsgebied 9) en ander gekose SDF-opvangsgebiede in Suid-Afrika te evalueer, te kalibreer en te verifieer deur die opvangsgebiedparameters en SDF/waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings vas te stel. Dié waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings was gebaseer op die vergelyking tussen die vloedpieke soos beraam deur die SDF-metode en statistiese analises van waargenome vloeidata. Dié kwartinêre afloopkoëffisiënte is met die bestaande streeksgebonde SDF-afloopkoëffisiënte vergelyk, terwyl die afloopkoëffisiënt-aanpassingsfaktore soos voorgestel deur Van Bladeren (2005) ook geëvalueer is. Dit het duidelik uit die studie geblyk dat die gekalibreerde afloopkoëffisiënte verspreid rondom die van Alexander (2003) is, maar in die algemeen laer in omvang. Die aangepaste afloopkoëffisiënte (Van Bladeren, 2005) was geneig om af te neem in grootte met ‘n toename in die herhalingsperiode, terwyl sommige afloopkoëffisiënte ‘n waarde van 1 oorskry het. Die omvang waartoe die oorspronklike SDF metode die grootte en herhaalperiode van vloedpieke oorskat het, wissel van opvangsgebied tot opvangsgebied, met die SDF/waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings die hoogste in die Hoëveld en suidelike kusstreke gekenmerk deur konveksie-somerreënval. In hierdie streke het die vloedpiekverhoudings gereeld verskil tot en met ‘n faktor van 3 of selfs meer. Die suidelike kusstreke met kenmerkende ortografiese/frontale winterreënval het oor die beste vloedpiekverhoudings beskik wat gewissel het tussen 0.78 en 1.63. Die resultate van die aangepaste SDF-metode (Van Bladeren, 2005) was slegs in 26% van al die opvangsgebiede beter as die beramings van die oorspronklike SDF-metode. Die aangepaste SDF/waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings het, met verwysing na gemiddeldes, tussen 0.30 en 6.58 gewissel, wat onaanvaarbaar is. Die gekalibreerde weergawe van die SDF-metode was die mees akkurate metode in al die opvangsgebiede van belang. Die gekalibreerde SDF/waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings het, met verwysing na gemiddeldes, tussen 0.85 en 1.15 gewissel, terwyl die resultate van sommige opvangsgebiede en individuele herhalingsperiodes minder akkuraat was. Verifikasietoetse is uitgevoer in die opvangsgebiede wat nie tydens die kalibrasieproses gebruik was nie om vas te stel of die gekalibreerde afloopkoëffisiënte voorspelbaar is en om te bevestig dat die metode betroubaar is. Die verifikasieresultate het getoon dat die gekalibreerde/geverifieerde SDFmetode die mees akkurate metode is en dat soortgelyke tendense duidelik was in al die relevante opvangsgebiede. Die geverifieerde SDF/waarskynlikheidsverspreiding-verhoudings het, met verwysing na gemiddeldes, tussen 0.82 en 1.19 gewissel, behalwe in SDF-opvangsgebiede 6 en 21 waar die 5- en 20-jaar herhalingsperiode-vloedpieke onderskeidelik met 41% en 56% oorskat is, wat steeds konserwatief is. Die sekondêre doelwit van die studie was om ‘n gebruikersvriendelike “Design Flood Estimation Tool” (DFET) in ‘n Microsoft Office Excel/Visual Basic for Applications omgewing te ontwikkel om die gebruik en toepaslikheid van die verskeie ontwerpvloedberamingsmetodes te bepaal. Die DFET sal ontwerpers voorsien van ‘n sagtewareprogram om alternatiewe ontwerpvloedberamingsmetodes op streek- of plaaslike skaal te ondersoek en te evalueer. Die fokus-gebruikersgroep vir die toepassing van die program sal bestaan uit ingenieurstegnici, ingenieurstegnoloë en ingenieurs werksaam by raadgewende siviele ingenieurs, nie noodwendig vakkundiges in die veld van hidrologie nie. Die DFET was gebruik om al die opvangsgebied-, meteorologiese (reënval) en hidrologiese (waargenome vloeie) data vir die verskeie ontwerpvloedberamingsmetodes te verwerk.

To respond to the global issue of sea level rise, this thesis examines architectural adaptation strategies by focusing on a low-lying coastal community in Dartmouth Cove in Halifax, Canada. Without a comprehensive adaptation strategy, these residents, along with 75% of the properties surrounding the harbour, will be forced to abandon their homes, resulting in a massive retreat from the coast. This project explores ways to build that can accommodate the future rise in sea level and population growth but are sensitive to the natural environment. It includes designs for urban organizations and amphibious housing blocks. The findings presented in this thesis suggest that amphibious architecture could become a viable solution for coastal environments in urban areas.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第20352号 / 工博第4289号 / 新制||工||1664(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 清水 芳久, 教授 米田 稔, 准教授 KIM,SUNMIN / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

A definição de valores máximos de variáveis hidrológicas na engenharia de recursos hídricos atua como ferramenta de extrema importância em vista de inúmeras aplicações práticas que se utilizam desses valores. Neste trabalho é apresentada uma revisão do estado da arte na definição de valores máximos de variáveis hidrológicas (metodologia estatística e determinística). Na metodologia estatística é mostrada uma avaliação conceitual e crítica, na qual é apresentado um exemplo numérico que demonstra as inconsistências ou falhas que caracterizam a necessidade de revisão nos conceitos. Na metodologia determinística é demonstrada as técnicas que definirão os valores da precipitação máxima provável e algumas considerações adicionais quanto à metodologia determinística, principalmente no que se refere às imprecisões dos valores determinados para a precipitação máxima provável/enchente máxima provável. A partir das conclusões sobre ambas as metodologias avaliadas é aplicado uma nova metodologia para determinação de valores máximos de projeto. Essa metodologia, denominada conjugada, resulta da combinação dos procedimentos atualmente usados: metodologia probabilística e determinística. Com o objetivo de caracterizar as importantes contribuições do método conjugado para engenharia, são apresentados alguns estudos de casos que procuram demonstrar a aplicabilidade prática do método e suas vantagens em detrimento aos métodos atuais. A conclusão é que o método conjugado representa um avanço em relação aos métodos atualmente utilizados, uma vez que é consistente com o fenômeno físico e permite atribuir probabilidades às variáveis hidrológicas, resultando em valores de projeto mais realista. / The description of extreme values of hydrological variables in water resources engineering is an extremely importance tool for innumerable practical applications. This work provides a review of statistical and deterministic methods that are used to estimate extreme values of hydrological variables. A critical and conceptual evaluation of statistical methods is presented along with a numerical example that demonstrates the inconsistencies or imperfections of such methods, characterizing the necessity of revisions of these concepts. Deterministic methods to estimate the maximum probable precipitation are also presented and some additional considerations regarding the methodology are discussed, especially those concerned to the imprecise estimates of the maximum probable precipitation/flood. A new methodology to estimate extreme values of hydrologic variables for engineering projects is developed based upon conclusions about the evaluated methodologies. This new methodology is called conjugated, and results from the combination of the currently used statistical and deterministic procedures. In order to characterize the important contributions provided by the conjugated method, some case studies are presented as an attempt to demonstrate its practical applicability as well as its advantages over current methods. The conclusion is that the conjugate method represents an advance with respect to current methods because it is consistent with the physical phenomenon and it allows assigning probabilities to the hydrological variable, resulting in more realistic values to be employed in engineering projects.

A definição de valores máximos de variáveis hidrológicas na engenharia de recursos hídricos atua como ferramenta de extrema importância em vista de inúmeras aplicações práticas que se utilizam desses valores. Neste trabalho é apresentada uma revisão do estado da arte na definição de valores máximos de variáveis hidrológicas (metodologia estatística e determinística). Na metodologia estatística é mostrada uma avaliação conceitual e crítica, na qual é apresentado um exemplo numérico que demonstra as inconsistências ou falhas que caracterizam a necessidade de revisão nos conceitos. Na metodologia determinística é demonstrada as técnicas que definirão os valores da precipitação máxima provável e algumas considerações adicionais quanto à metodologia determinística, principalmente no que se refere às imprecisões dos valores determinados para a precipitação máxima provável/enchente máxima provável. A partir das conclusões sobre ambas as metodologias avaliadas é aplicado uma nova metodologia para determinação de valores máximos de projeto. Essa metodologia, denominada conjugada, resulta da combinação dos procedimentos atualmente usados: metodologia probabilística e determinística. Com o objetivo de caracterizar as importantes contribuições do método conjugado para engenharia, são apresentados alguns estudos de casos que procuram demonstrar a aplicabilidade prática do método e suas vantagens em detrimento aos métodos atuais. A conclusão é que o método conjugado representa um avanço em relação aos métodos atualmente utilizados, uma vez que é consistente com o fenômeno físico e permite atribuir probabilidades às variáveis hidrológicas, resultando em valores de projeto mais realista. / The description of extreme values of hydrological variables in water resources engineering is an extremely importance tool for innumerable practical applications. This work provides a review of statistical and deterministic methods that are used to estimate extreme values of hydrological variables. A critical and conceptual evaluation of statistical methods is presented along with a numerical example that demonstrates the inconsistencies or imperfections of such methods, characterizing the necessity of revisions of these concepts. Deterministic methods to estimate the maximum probable precipitation are also presented and some additional considerations regarding the methodology are discussed, especially those concerned to the imprecise estimates of the maximum probable precipitation/flood. A new methodology to estimate extreme values of hydrologic variables for engineering projects is developed based upon conclusions about the evaluated methodologies. This new methodology is called conjugated, and results from the combination of the currently used statistical and deterministic procedures. In order to characterize the important contributions provided by the conjugated method, some case studies are presented as an attempt to demonstrate its practical applicability as well as its advantages over current methods. The conclusion is that the conjugate method represents an advance with respect to current methods because it is consistent with the physical phenomenon and it allows assigning probabilities to the hydrological variable, resulting in more realistic values to be employed in engineering projects.

L'estimation de crues de projet est requise pour le dimensionnement de barrages et de bassins de rétention, de même que pour la gestion des inondations lors de l’élaboration de cartes d’aléas ou lors de la modélisation et délimitation de plaines d’inondation. Généralement, les crues de projet sont définies par leur débit de pointe à partir d’une analyse fréquentielle univariée. Cependant, lorsque le dimensionnement d’ouvrages hydrauliques ou la gestion de crues nécessitent un stockage du volume ruisselé, il est également nécessaire de connaître les caractéristiques volume, durée et forme de l’hydrogramme de crue en plus de son débit maximum. Une analyse fréquentielle bivariée permet une estimation conjointe du débit de pointe et du volume de l’hydrogramme en tenant compte de leur corrélation. Bien qu’une telle approche permette la détermination du couple débit/volume de crue, il manque l’information relative à la forme de l’hydrogramme de crue. Une approche attrayante pour caractériser la forme de la crue de projet est de définir un hydrogramme représentatif normalisé par une densité de probabilité. La combinaison d’une densité de probabilité et des quantiles bivariés débit/volume permet la construction d’un hydrogramme synthétique de crue pour une période de retour donnée, qui modélise le pic d’une crue ainsi que sa forme. De tels hydrogrammes synthétiques sont potentiellement utiles et simples d’utilisation pour la détermination de crues de projet. Cependant, ils possèdent actuellement plusieurs limitations. Premièrement, ils reposent sur la définition d’une période de retour bivariée qui n’est pas univoque. Deuxièmement, ils décrivent en général le comportement spécifique d’un bassin versant en ne tenant pas compte de la variabilité des processus représentée par différents types de crues. Troisièmement, les hydrogrammes synthétiques ne sont pas disponibles pour les bassins versant non jaugés et une estimation de leurs incertitudes n’est pas calculée.Pour remédier à ces manquements, cette thèse propose des avenues pour la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet pour les bassins versants jaugés et non jaugés, de même que pour la prise en compte de la diversité des types de crue. Des méthodes sont également développées pour la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de crue spécifiques au bassin et aux événements ainsi que pour la régionalisation des hydrogrammes. Une estimation des diverses sources d’incertitude est également proposée. Ces travaux de recherche montrent que les hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet constituent une approche qui s’adapte bien à la représentation de différents types de crue ou d’événements dans un contexte de détermination de crues de projet. Une comparaison de différentes méthodes de régionalisation montre que les hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet spécifiques au bassin peuvent être régionalisés à des bassins non jaugés à l’aide de méthodes de régression linéaires et non linéaires. Il est également montré que les hydrogrammes de projet spécifiques aux événements peuvent être régionalisés à l’aide d’une approche d’indice de crue bivariée. Dans ce contexte, une représentation fonctionnelle de la forme des hydrogrammes constitue un moyen judicieux pour la délimitation de régions ayant un comportement hydrologique de crue similaire en terme de réactivité. Une analyse de l’incertitude a montré que la longueur de la série de mesures et le choix de la stratégie d’échantillonnage constituent les principales sources d’incertitude dans la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet. Cette thèse démontre qu’une approche de crues de projet basée sur un ensemble de crues permet la prise en compte des différents types de crue et de divers processus. Ces travaux permettent de passer de l’analyse fréquentielle statistique de crues vers l’analyse fréquentielle hydrologique de crues permettant de prendre en compte les processus et conduisant à une prise de décision plus éclairée. / Design flood estimates are needed in hydraulic design for the construction of dams and retention basins and in flood management for drawing hazard maps or modeling inundation areas. Traditionally, such design floods have been expressed in terms of peak discharge estimated in a univariate flood frequency analysis. However, design or flood management tasks involving storage, in addition to peak discharge, also require information on hydrograph volume, duration, and shape . A bivariate flood frequency analysis allows the joint estimation of peak discharge and hydrograph volume and the consideration of their dependence. While such bivariate design quantiles describe the magnitude of a design flood, they lack information on its shape. An attractive way of modeling the whole shape of a design flood is to express a representative normalized hydrograph shape as a probability density function. The combination of such a probability density function with bivariate design quantiles allows the construction of a synthetic design hydrograph for a certain return period which describes the magnitude of a flood along with its shape. Such synthetic design hydrographs have the potential to be a useful and simple tool in design flood estimation. However, they currently have some limitations. First, they rely on the definition of a bivariate return period which is not uniquely defined. Second, they usually describe the specific behavior of a catchment and do not express process variability represented by different flood types. Third, they are neither available for ungauged catchments nor are they usually provided together with an uncertainty estimate.This thesis therefore explores possibilities for the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in gauged and ungauged catchments and ways of representing process variability in design flood construction. It proposes tools for both catchment- and flood-type specific design hydrograph construction and regionalization and for the assessment of their uncertainty.The thesis shows that synthetic design hydrographs are a flexible tool allowing for the consideration of different flood or event types in design flood estimation. A comparison of different regionalization methods, including spatial, similarity, and proximity based approaches, showed that catchment-specific design hydrographs can be best regionalized to ungauged catchments using linear and nonlinear regression methods. It was further shown that event-type specific design hydrograph sets can be regionalized using a bivariate index flood approach. In such a setting, a functional representation of hydrograph shapes was found to be a useful tool for the delineation of regions with similar flood reactivities.An uncertainty assessment showed that the record length and the choice of the sampling strategy are major uncertainty sources in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs and that this uncertainty propagates through the regionalization process.This thesis highlights that an ensemble-based design flood approach allows for the consideration of different flood types and runoff processes. This is a step from flood frequency statistics to flood frequency hydrology which allows better-informed decision making.

The subject of the thesis is to design proposal protective water management solution reservoirs in the basin Kobylí potok. This thesis consist of the text, hydraulic calculation and graphic.