Submitted by Emanuel Varela Cardoso (emanuel.varela@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-05-14T20:21:01Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ADRIANA DE SOUZA COSTA – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2016.pdf: 6197666 bytes, checksum: 77b57b9618b2649efa4e6fbe2526f94f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-14T20:21:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ADRIANA DE SOUZA COSTA – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2016.pdf: 6197666 bytes, checksum: 77b57b9618b2649efa4e6fbe2526f94f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-29 / Capes / O Estado do Maranhão está localizado numa zona de transição entre o semiárido nordestino, a Amazônia quente e úmida e os chapadões do Brasil central, dando ao Estado características peculiares. Embora, o Estado não se encontre no contexto do polígono das secas, por apresentar condições climáticas bem definidas, a distribuição espacial e temporal das chuvas são bastantes irregulares, o que submete o sistema agrícola da região a sérios problemas, com impactos econômicos e sociais significativos. Diante dessas particularidades, o objetivo do estudo foi analisar e compreender a variabilidade da precipitação e relacioná-la com a TSM e outros sistemas meteorológicos que influenciem as chuvas no Estado. Para tal, empregou-se o método da Transformada de Ondeletas (TO) para identificar em diferentes escalas de oscilações o sinal da precipitação e da TSM, e assim apontar os sistemas que contribuem nas diferentes nas escalas de tempo. Os resultados mostraram no espectro global de energia da ondeleta que o ciclo anual é o dominante em todas as localidades analisadas. E, que além da escala anual observam-se também interações com as escalas sazonal, intrasazonal, semi-anual, bianual e até decadal. No tocante a TSM do Pacífico Equatorial, a escala anual é mais intensa no setor leste do oceano, decrescendo no sentido leste-oeste, onde a escala decadal se torna mais acentuada. A relação entre a chuva nas regiões homogêneas (RH) do Maranhão e a TSM do oceano Pacífico Equatorial mostrou que existe correlações importantes entre as mesmas. Ou seja, as áreas do Niño que apresentaram as maiores correlações com as RH foram: Niño 3 com a RH1(correlação r = -0,72), com a RH2 (correlação r = -0,65), com a RH3 (correlação r = -0,69), com a RH4 (correlação r = -0,53), e Niño 1+2 com a RH5 (correlação r = -0,52). / The State of Maranhão is located in a transition zone between the semi-arid northeast, the hot and humid Amazon and the plains of central Brazil, giving the state peculiar characteristics. Although the state is not in the polygon the context of drought, have welldefined climatic conditions, the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is quite irregular, which submits the agricultural system of the region to serious problems, with significant economic and social impacts . Given these characteristics, the objective of the study was to analyze and understand the variability of precipitation and relate it to the TSM and other weather systems that influence rainfall in the state. To this end, we used the method of Wavelet Transform (TO) to identify different scales fluctuations sign of precipitation and TSM, and thus point the systems involved in the different time scales. The results showed the overall spectrum of the wavelet energy that the annual cycle is the dominant in all analyzed locations. And that in addition to the annual scale also observe up interactions with seasonal scales, intraseasonal, semi-annual, bi-annual and decadal up. Regarding the TSM Equatorial Pacific, the annual scale is more intense in the east of the ocean sector, decreasing from east to west, where the decadal scale becomes more pronounced. The relationship between rainfall in homogeneous regions (HR) of Maranhao and the ocean TSM Equatorial Pacific showed that there is significant correlation between them. Ie areas of Niño with the highest correlations with HR were: Niño 3 with RH1 relationship (r = -0.72), with RH2 relationship (r = -0.65), with RH3 (correlation r = -0.69), as RH4 (correlation r = -0.53) and Nino 1 + 2 with RH5 relationship (r = -0.52).

Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T14:25:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_ana_carolina_pereira.pdf: 8965039 bytes, checksum: 94bb2b07c5b8788f73621ddfa4a752de (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-12-18 / In this work a study of the winds in Rio Grande do Sul, during the period 2000-2007 is presented to identify where and when the wind were stronger in the State. The wind data obtained at 10m height, at three time observation (00, 12 and 18UTC) of 15 meteorological stations, well distributed in the State are utilized. The identification of the stations where the winds were stronger and with less spectrum of variation was made using a Weibull distribution to the monthly average values of velocity, calculated on the total period of data from each station (between 4 and 8 years) and for time. The similarity of velocities behavior between the stations with 8 years of data was obtained by applying the method K-means, non-hierarchical clustering technique, setting up 4 groups for homogeneous regions of pentad average velocities in the state, by hour of observation. Sensibility tests with two Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations (Blackadar and MRF) of MM5 model were realized by using two nested grids with 35 sigma levels in vertical, centered in Rio Grande do Sul and with initial and contour data from NCEP (1º resolution in latitude and longitude). The validation of simulated versus observed velocities at 10m height was realized with the calculation of bias error, the mean square root of error and standard deviation of errors. The cities of São Luiz Gonzaga and Santa Vitória do Palmar stood out from the others because they had more often high values of k and c parameters. The homogeneous group, characterized by having the highest values of pentadal avegared velocities was constitued predominantly by the stations of Santa Vitória do Palmar (in the extreme south of the state) and Passo Fundo (located in the northern region). The highest velocities were observed in the month of November, in Santa Vitória do Palmar. The selected case study was the extratropical cyclone that struck the southern Rio Grande do Sul in the period from 9 to November 13, 2002. The errors between observed and simulated velocities in both experiments were relatively large. The comparison between results and observed data in some stations showed that Blackadar PBL parameterization was better than MRF parameterization. / Neste trabalho é mostrado o estudo sobre os ventos no Rio Grande do Sul, durante o período 2000-2007, para identificar onde e quando os ventos foram mais intensos no Estado. Foram utilizados dados de velocidades obtidos a 10m de altura, nos três horários de observação (00, 12 e 18UTC) de 15 estações meteorológicas, bem distribuídas no Estado. A identificação das estações onde os ventos foram mais fortes e com menor espectro de variação foi feita aplicando a distribuição Weibull aos valores médios mensais de velocidades, calculadas sobre o período total de dados de cada estação (entre 4 e 8 anos) e por horário. A similaridade de comportamento das velocidades entre as estações com 8 anos de dados, foi obtida pela aplicação do método K-means, definindo-se 4 grupos para regiões homogêneas de velocidades médias pentadais no Estado, por horário de observação.Testes de sensibilidade com duas parametrizações (Blackadar e MRF) de Camada Limite Planetária (CLP) do modelo MM5 foram realizados usando duas grades aninhadas com 35 níveis sigma na vertical, centradas no Rio Grande do Sul e com dados iniciais e de contorno do NCEP (resolução de 1º em latitude e longitude). A validação das velocidades simuladas versus observadas, a 10m de altura, foi realizada com o cálculo do erro de viés, da raiz do erro quadrático médio e do desvio padrão dos erros. As cidades de São Luiz Gonzaga e de Santa Vitória do Palmar se destacaram das demais por apresentarem mais frequentemente, os valores mais elevados dos parâmetros k e c, respectivamente. O grupo homogêneo, caracterizado por apresentar os maiores valores de velocidades médias pentadais foi constituído predominantemente pelas estações de Santa Vitória do Palmar (no extremo sul do Estado) e Passo Fundo (localizado na região norte). As velocidades mais elevadas foram observadas no mês de novembro, em Santa Vitória do Palmar. O caso de estudo selecionado foi o ciclone extratropical que atingiu o sul do Rio Grande do Sul no período de 9 a 13 de novembro de 2002. Os erros encontrados entre as velocidades observadas e simuladas nos dois experimentos foram relativamente grandes. A comparação entre os resultados e os dados observados em algumas estações mostrou que a parametrização de camada limite planetária Blackadar foi melhor que a parametrização MRF.

L'estimation de crues de projet est requise pour le dimensionnement de barrages et de bassins de rétention, de même que pour la gestion des inondations lors de l’élaboration de cartes d’aléas ou lors de la modélisation et délimitation de plaines d’inondation. Généralement, les crues de projet sont définies par leur débit de pointe à partir d’une analyse fréquentielle univariée. Cependant, lorsque le dimensionnement d’ouvrages hydrauliques ou la gestion de crues nécessitent un stockage du volume ruisselé, il est également nécessaire de connaître les caractéristiques volume, durée et forme de l’hydrogramme de crue en plus de son débit maximum. Une analyse fréquentielle bivariée permet une estimation conjointe du débit de pointe et du volume de l’hydrogramme en tenant compte de leur corrélation. Bien qu’une telle approche permette la détermination du couple débit/volume de crue, il manque l’information relative à la forme de l’hydrogramme de crue. Une approche attrayante pour caractériser la forme de la crue de projet est de définir un hydrogramme représentatif normalisé par une densité de probabilité. La combinaison d’une densité de probabilité et des quantiles bivariés débit/volume permet la construction d’un hydrogramme synthétique de crue pour une période de retour donnée, qui modélise le pic d’une crue ainsi que sa forme. De tels hydrogrammes synthétiques sont potentiellement utiles et simples d’utilisation pour la détermination de crues de projet. Cependant, ils possèdent actuellement plusieurs limitations. Premièrement, ils reposent sur la définition d’une période de retour bivariée qui n’est pas univoque. Deuxièmement, ils décrivent en général le comportement spécifique d’un bassin versant en ne tenant pas compte de la variabilité des processus représentée par différents types de crues. Troisièmement, les hydrogrammes synthétiques ne sont pas disponibles pour les bassins versant non jaugés et une estimation de leurs incertitudes n’est pas calculée.Pour remédier à ces manquements, cette thèse propose des avenues pour la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet pour les bassins versants jaugés et non jaugés, de même que pour la prise en compte de la diversité des types de crue. Des méthodes sont également développées pour la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de crue spécifiques au bassin et aux événements ainsi que pour la régionalisation des hydrogrammes. Une estimation des diverses sources d’incertitude est également proposée. Ces travaux de recherche montrent que les hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet constituent une approche qui s’adapte bien à la représentation de différents types de crue ou d’événements dans un contexte de détermination de crues de projet. Une comparaison de différentes méthodes de régionalisation montre que les hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet spécifiques au bassin peuvent être régionalisés à des bassins non jaugés à l’aide de méthodes de régression linéaires et non linéaires. Il est également montré que les hydrogrammes de projet spécifiques aux événements peuvent être régionalisés à l’aide d’une approche d’indice de crue bivariée. Dans ce contexte, une représentation fonctionnelle de la forme des hydrogrammes constitue un moyen judicieux pour la délimitation de régions ayant un comportement hydrologique de crue similaire en terme de réactivité. Une analyse de l’incertitude a montré que la longueur de la série de mesures et le choix de la stratégie d’échantillonnage constituent les principales sources d’incertitude dans la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet. Cette thèse démontre qu’une approche de crues de projet basée sur un ensemble de crues permet la prise en compte des différents types de crue et de divers processus. Ces travaux permettent de passer de l’analyse fréquentielle statistique de crues vers l’analyse fréquentielle hydrologique de crues permettant de prendre en compte les processus et conduisant à une prise de décision plus éclairée. / Design flood estimates are needed in hydraulic design for the construction of dams and retention basins and in flood management for drawing hazard maps or modeling inundation areas. Traditionally, such design floods have been expressed in terms of peak discharge estimated in a univariate flood frequency analysis. However, design or flood management tasks involving storage, in addition to peak discharge, also require information on hydrograph volume, duration, and shape . A bivariate flood frequency analysis allows the joint estimation of peak discharge and hydrograph volume and the consideration of their dependence. While such bivariate design quantiles describe the magnitude of a design flood, they lack information on its shape. An attractive way of modeling the whole shape of a design flood is to express a representative normalized hydrograph shape as a probability density function. The combination of such a probability density function with bivariate design quantiles allows the construction of a synthetic design hydrograph for a certain return period which describes the magnitude of a flood along with its shape. Such synthetic design hydrographs have the potential to be a useful and simple tool in design flood estimation. However, they currently have some limitations. First, they rely on the definition of a bivariate return period which is not uniquely defined. Second, they usually describe the specific behavior of a catchment and do not express process variability represented by different flood types. Third, they are neither available for ungauged catchments nor are they usually provided together with an uncertainty estimate.This thesis therefore explores possibilities for the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in gauged and ungauged catchments and ways of representing process variability in design flood construction. It proposes tools for both catchment- and flood-type specific design hydrograph construction and regionalization and for the assessment of their uncertainty.The thesis shows that synthetic design hydrographs are a flexible tool allowing for the consideration of different flood or event types in design flood estimation. A comparison of different regionalization methods, including spatial, similarity, and proximity based approaches, showed that catchment-specific design hydrographs can be best regionalized to ungauged catchments using linear and nonlinear regression methods. It was further shown that event-type specific design hydrograph sets can be regionalized using a bivariate index flood approach. In such a setting, a functional representation of hydrograph shapes was found to be a useful tool for the delineation of regions with similar flood reactivities.An uncertainty assessment showed that the record length and the choice of the sampling strategy are major uncertainty sources in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs and that this uncertainty propagates through the regionalization process.This thesis highlights that an ensemble-based design flood approach allows for the consideration of different flood types and runoff processes. This is a step from flood frequency statistics to flood frequency hydrology which allows better-informed decision making.