Submitted by Bruno Barsanetti (barsanetti@gmail.com) on 2014-04-11T21:04:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 versaofinal.pdf: 311571 bytes, checksum: 99a792cd3569838d12c1e29951f7df78 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2014-04-14T11:58:00Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 versaofinal.pdf: 311571 bytes, checksum: 99a792cd3569838d12c1e29951f7df78 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-04-14T12:49:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 versaofinal.pdf: 311571 bytes, checksum: 99a792cd3569838d12c1e29951f7df78 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-03-20 / We consider trade in dynamic decentralized markets with adverse selection. Unlike the literature so far, we assume that informed sellers (and not uninformed buyers) make take-it-or-leave-it offers, so that signaling through prices is possible. We establish a partial characterization of the equilibrium set, provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an equilibrium, and show that all equilibria involve signaling if the adverse selection problem is severe enough. Moreover, we prove the somewhat surprising result that the highest welfare achieved in equilibrium is invariant to market frictions. We also provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of separating equilibria, completely characterize such equilibria, and show that the set of equilibrium payoffs for separating equilibria is invariant to market frictions. We conclude with a complete characterization of the equilibrium set in the two-type case, and compare our results to the those in Moreno and Wooders (2010), who analyze the case in which buyers have all the bargaining power. Our results show that signaling through prices can have a non-trivial impact on market outcomes and welfare. / Nesta dissertação, consideram-se trocas em mercados descentralizados com seleção adversa. Diferentemente da literatura até o momento, supomos que vendedores informados (e não compradores desinformados) fazem ofertas take-it-or-leave-it, de forma que sinalização através de preços é possível. Estabelecemos uma caracterização parcial do conjunto de equilíbrio, encontramos condições necessárias e suficientes para a existência de um equilíbrio e mostramos que todo equilíbrio apresenta sinalização se o problema de seleção adversa for suficientemente severo. Além disso, provamos o resultado surpreendente que o maior bem-estar atingido em equilíbrio é invariante às fricções do mercado. Também apresentamos condições necessárias e suficientes para a existência de equilíbrios separantes, que caracterizamos completamente. Mostramos que o conjunto de payoffs associados a equilíbrios separantes é invariante às fricções. Concluímos com uma caracterização completa do conjunto de equilíbrio com apenas dois tipos, e comparamos nossos resultados com os de Moreno e Wooders (2010), que analisam o caso em que compradores têm todo o poder de mercado. Nossos resultados mostram que sinalização através dos preços tem um impacto não trivial tanto nos resultados do mercado quanto no bem-estar.

The electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) grid is undergoing a paradigm shift as renewable generation explodes while flexible, storage-like loads are being massively adopted. We address the intermittency and volatility issues of renewable resources in connection with spatiotemporal distribution location-specific marginal-cost-based prices (DLMPs) that guide flexible loads to utilize their significant degrees of freedom for the purpose of providing valuable storage-like services to the grid including demand response, energy charge/discharge arbitrage and regulation reserve services. Dynamic DLMPs can induce socially optimal energy and reserve schedules to be adopted by flexible load. To this end, existing transmission wholesale markets must be extended to include distribution network connected participants. Since the inclusion of the complex preferences of many flexible loads renders familiar centralized transmission market designs intractable, we propose and investigate tractable decentralized market designs with Electric Vehicle (EV) battery charging selected as the representative flexible load. We address the equilibrium existence, uniqueness, and efficiency issues that arise with decentralized market designs, using game theory techniques. We investigate various multi-hour and multi-commodity (energy and reserves) market designs including EV self-scheduling under distribution network information aware/unaware conditions, and single or multiple load aggregator(s) scheduling groups of EVs. We investigate the role of network related information in enabling partially price anticipating EVs to acquire market power and self-schedule to achieve individual benefits at the expense of social welfare. Our contribution is the proof of existence and uniqueness of decentralized market equilibria, as well as analytical and numerical comparative analysis. Secondly, we depart from the usual ideal battery assumption, employing instead a realistic two bucket model. We then develop a novel Markovian Decision Process (MDP) application to estimate the regulation tracking cost incurred over an hour by an EV charger employing an optimal controller to respond to the regulation signal which is reset every two seconds by the system operator. The hourly tracking error increases when the EV promises higher regulation reserves while at the same time demanding an achievable albeit high average charging rate. We solve the MDP repeatedly, in fact off line, to capture the impact of the average charging rate and the regulation reserves promised at the beginning of an hour to the resulting hourly regulation tracking error. We then estimate a convex closed form relationship mapping hourly charging rate and regulation reserve offerings to the expected hourly tracking error cost. These convex tracking cost functions provide crucial input to the day ahead hourly energy bids and regulation reserve offers made by individual EVs to the Day Ahead market in response to spatiotemporal DLMPs.

Submitted by Amanda Forlin (amanda.forlin@gmail.com) on 2014-06-15T19:40:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Amanda_Forlin.pdf: 467741 bytes, checksum: 3b22a94826a6546ef8d4bd68a1719227 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2014-06-16T12:25:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Amanda_Forlin.pdf: 467741 bytes, checksum: 3b22a94826a6546ef8d4bd68a1719227 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-16T12:52:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Amanda_Forlin.pdf: 467741 bytes, checksum: 3b22a94826a6546ef8d4bd68a1719227 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-23 / Using as our base model the environment described in Moreno and Wooders (2010), in this work we analyse trade in a dynamic and decentralized market with adverse selection. Unlike both authors and the literature, we do not consider the proportion of high quality assets entering the market to be independent of market characteristics. We adapt the basic dynamic adverse selection model to incorporate the seller’s decision on whether to pay or not a price κ and transform their low quality asset into a high quality asset before entering the market. And, under these condition, we show that welfare may behave differently from the traditional model. / Usando como base o ambiente descrito em Moreno e Wooders (2010), neste trabalho, analisamos trocas em um ambiente dinâmico, descentralizado e com seleção adversa. Ao contrário dos autores e da literatura, não consideramos a proporção de ativos de alta qualidade entrantes como independente das características do mercado. Desse modo, adaptamos o modelo dinâmico básico de seleção adversa para incorporar a decisão do vendedor sobre a possibilidade de pagar ou não um preço e transformar seu ativo de baixa qualidade em um ativo de alta qualidade antes de entrar no mercado. E, sob essas condições, mostramos que o bem-estar pode se comportar de maneira diferente do modelo tradicional.

Submitted by Maria Fernanda Petri Betto (betto.maria@gmail.com) on 2017-06-12T12:51:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 v2 (2).pdf: 374191 bytes, checksum: e2354b420b3a4a3b8d297fd77a276555 (MD5) / Rejected by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br), reason: Maria Fernanda, Por favor, seguir as normas, letras, capa, contra-capa, folha de assinaturas, em caixa alta o agradecimento, abstract e resumo, descer mais seu nome. Por gentileza, verifique um modelo de dissertação/tese dos colegas (Ex.:Mateus Dias, Ilaria, etc.) Letras - somente Arial / Times New Roman Att. Suzi 3799-7876 on 2017-06-12T13:23:14Z (GMT) / Submitted by Maria Fernanda Petri Betto (betto.maria@gmail.com) on 2017-06-12T14:19:45Z No. of bitstreams: 1 v3.pdf: 303914 bytes, checksum: bbaf7272fd9e4d7a65e64f402afe810c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2017-06-12T14:41:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 v3.pdf: 303914 bytes, checksum: bbaf7272fd9e4d7a65e64f402afe810c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-12T15:15:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 v3.pdf: 303914 bytes, checksum: bbaf7272fd9e4d7a65e64f402afe810c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-12 / This paper investigates the role of signaling in a dynamic, decentralized market for lemons. I derive general properties of equilibria, and in particular of fully separating equilibria. The most efficient separating equilibrium allows for the trade of every type in every period, a feature that remains even when all agents are infinitely patient – unlike the market freezing result obtained by Moreno and Wooders (2016) in a similar context but without the possibility for signaling through prices. / Este trabalho investiga o papel da sinalização em um mercado dinâmico de limões. Nós derivamos propriedades gerais dos equilíbrios, e em particular dos equilíbrios totalmente separantes. O equilíbrio separante mais eficiente permite que trocas ocorram em todos os períodos para tos os tipos, uma característica que permanece mesmo quado os agentes são infinitamente pacientes – ao contrário do resultado de congelamento de mercados obtido por Moreno e Wooders (2016) num contexto similiar, porém sem a possibilidade de sinalização via preços.

In this thesis we study decentralized dynamics for non-cooperative and cooperative games. The dynamics are behaviorally motivated and assume that very little information is available about other players' preferences, actions, or payoffs. For example, this is the case in markets where exchanges are frequent and the sheer size of the market hinders participants from learning about others' preferences. We consider learning dynamics that are based on trial-and-error and aspiration-based heuristics. Players occasionally try to increase their performance given their current payoffs. If successful they stick to the new action, otherwise they revert to their old action. We also study a dynamic model of social influence based on findings in sociology and psychology that people have a propensity to conform to others' behavior irrespective of the payoff consequences. We analyze the dynamics with a particular focus on two questions: How long does it take to reach equilibrium and what are the stability and welfare properties of the equilibria that the process selects? These questions are at the core of understanding which equilibrium concepts are robust in environments where players have little information about the game and the high rationality assumptions of standard game theory are not very realistic. Methodologically, this thesis builds on game theoretic techniques and prominent solution concepts such as the Nash equilibrium for non-cooperative games and the core for cooperative games, as well as refinement concepts like stochastic stability. The proofs rely on mathematical techniques from random walk theory and integer programming.