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Predicting the Fickle Buyer with the Attribute Carryover EffectBoland, Wendy Attaya January 2008 (has links)
The majority of the research conducted on consumer choice phenomena focuses on how choices are made and the processes that lead up to those choices. While these are essential aspects within the breadth of choice knowledge that exists today, little research has been conducted on the options that are rejected during this process. Thus, the overarching goal of this dissertation is gain an understanding of consumer choice processes and outcomes through the lens of a nearly chosen alternative. Specifically, this dissertation investigates how the decision process can cause a close second option to be rejected when the chosen option is found to be unavailable.As a means of achieving these goals, I first demonstrate the phenomenon that consumers do not always select a close second option when the first choice option is unavailable, contrary to the prediction of economic rationality. Next, I propose that the decision process itself, specifically the use of a tie-breaking attribute to differentiate between close options, triggers a choice outcome that does not include the original second choice option, but rather an alternative that possesses this tie-breaking attribute. Finally, I examine the implications that the preference reversal phenomenon described above has for retailers and manufacturers.My original interest in this phenomenon stems from anecdotal evidence provided by a variety of informants. Although this evidence helped me to recognize the prevalence of rejected second choice options, experimental design is used to investigate this phenomenon and the boundary conditions that confine this effect. Consequently, my dissertation consists of 6 experiments. Experiment 1 and a pilot study establish the effect and investigate the theoretical process that account for my findings. Experiments 2 through 4 rule out alternative explanations and add support towards the existence and prevalence of the effect. Finally, Experiments 5 and 6 explore the impact of these results for improving the performance of marketing managers. It is my belief that incorporating the dynamic effects of the second-most preferred option may ultimately lead to more accurate and sophisticated prediction of buyer choices, more effective retailing and personal selling strategies, and more profitable management of product line portfolios.
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Decision making under uncertainty : differentiating between 'if', 'what' and 'when' outcomes occurBlackburn, Marianna Carmen January 2012 (has links)
Why is it difficult to save for a pension or maintain a healthy diet? Choosing between options that have future or delayed consequences presents a challenge for a decision maker. When faced with such intertemporal choices the tendency to favour choices with immediate or short term outcomes, otherwise known as delay discounting, can lead to suboptimal consequences in the long-term. However, the mechanisms underlying the devaluation of future outcomes are poorly understood. This is due to the lack of a consistent framework for the representation of delays and delayed outcomes. One perspective is to represent delays as uncertainty. However, current conceptions of uncertainty are limited, by and large, to the dimension of probability, and are therefore inadequate. This thesis adopts a delay discounting model and emphasises different types of uncertainties within choice. Unifying these components, a framework that considers intertemporal choice as decision making under uncertainty is proposed. A series of behavioural and electrophysiological studies is presented to demonstrate that: it is the perceived uncertainty about 'if' and 'when' outcomes occur that contributes to behavioural discounting (chapters 2 and 3); the perception and evaluation of 'what' is delayed is underlined by emotional processes (chapter 4); and that generally, uncertainties about 'if' and 'what' outcomes differentially characterise risky and impulsive choices (chapter 5), and can be distinguished in terms of their informational qualities (chapter 6). Collectively, these findings present a deconstruction of uncertainty into components of 'if', 'what' and 'when', that could be mapped to delayed outcomes. I discuss them within the context of judgement and decision making, individual differences, and neural aspects of reward processing. These results allow me to argue that 1) all decision making is a process of information availability; 2) behaviour is motivated to reduce uncertainty; 3) choice is the manifestation of acquired information gathered from a decision-maker's internal and/or external environment. In conclusion, this thesis demonstrates that decision making under uncertainty can be qualified beyond a single dimension of probability; and that uncertainty can be characterised as a state of incomplete information about 'if' 'what' and 'when' outcomes will occur. Accordingly, intertemporal and risky choices can be accommodated within a single framework, subject to the same cognitive and neural processes. Consequently, this framework allows for the design of behavioural interventions that specifically target reducing uncertainties of 'if', 'what' or 'when'.
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Choosing to study science in Taiwanese schools : perceptions of science and other influences on students' choicesHsu, Chiu-Yen January 2008 (has links)
There is widespread concern in many Western countries over the declining levels of uptake of science at the upper levels of high school. In contrast, Taiwanese senior high school students have a greater tendency to choose science rather than social studies and achieve highly in international comparative tests. The well-developed technology industries in Taiwan also suggest that science education in Taiwan has been a success. However, the attitude toward school science, unlike the promotion of scientific attitudes, has received little attention in Taiwanese schools. This paper firstly investigates 729 students’ attitudes toward both school and real-world science. The results show that the high level of uptake of science is not strongly associated with positive attitudes towards science as a subject. Few differences were found in the affective responses to school science between the Natural Sciences programme (NSP) and Social Studies Programme (SSP) students, with only a minority expressing a positive attitude to science in both cases. The research findings challenge the simplistic linking of attitudes and uptake in this context. This research then seeks to understand this unusual phenomenon by exploring the nature of and influences on students’ subject choice decision-making. Through focus group discussions with students and interviews, this research explores the sources of students’ perceptions of science and social studies, identifying influences derived from the teaching of school science itself but also those arising from ‘external’ contexts of wider society, including cultural and economic influences. The results show highly complex relationships between students and the surrounding actors, i.e. parents, teachers and the media. The findings also demonstrate possible explanations why students are doing well in school science and in industry but have not produced prominent discoveries or achievements in the world’s academic research. Drawing on Taiwan’s distinctive socio-cultural context, this research provides a different perspective from that in western science education research literature on the factors that shape science uptake.
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Food labeling systems and Consumers’ Decision makingHasni, Muhammad Junaid Shahid 23 May 2023 (has links)
Creating a conducive environment for healthy eating can be achieved by empowering consumers with the necessary information to make informed nutritional choices. As a result, nutritional labeling has become increasingly imperative in assisting individuals in their daily purchasing decisions. Although research suggests that front-of-pack labeling is an effective means of informing consumers about healthier food options, no single labeling system has proven successful in this regard. The absence of a definitive labeling system ideal for all purposes makes it challenging to determine the most effective one. This uncertainty has led to a gap in the literature, which provided an opportunity for further research to examine the various labels and related concepts and factors. This dissertation aimed to fill the gap in the literature by studying two popular front-of-pack labeling systems: The Health Star Rating system and Nutri-Score. Four research chapters have been included to achieve this objective. The study commenced with a systematic review of the Health Star Rating label in the literature. The next chapters examined the impact of front-of-pack nutrition labels on consumers' food choices and preferences. The research investigated how the presence or absence of a label influences consumer decision-making and how individual differences play a role in interacting with these nutrition labels. Finally, the performance of the nutrition labels is examined in the context of existing beliefs and attitudes. This last study provided a fresh perspective on the effect of Nutri-Score on food choices by exploring its impact on consumers’ prior beliefs, intuitive thinking, analytical processing, and judgment of healthiness. In conclusion, the body of literature reviewed and the experimental data gathered in this thesis suggest that food labels are effective at influencing consumer choice; however, due to this, special caution must be exercised due to the risk that they could be used more as a marketing tool than as a genuine aid to informed choice.
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Estimating the adaptation deficit : an empirical analysis of the constraints on climate change adaptation in agricultureGawith, David January 2018 (has links)
Agricultural adaptation to climate change is often simulated by changes in land use over time. Land use is commonly optimised in economic models, which rests on the neoclassical economic assumption of rational choice among farmers. A wealth of experimental and empirical evidence demonstrates that rational choice can be a poor approximation of human decision making. Models simulating adaptation by optimising producers’ behaviour are in effect simulating adaptive potential. Much evidence demonstrates that adaptive potential does not necessarily translate into adaptation. This investigation focuses on the ways by which farmers’ real-world adaptive behaviours depart from those assumed by the dominant economic models of agricultural responses to climate change. These departures are characterised as adaptation constraints, and they are assessed through an empirical case study of adaptive behaviours in the Hikurangi catchment, New Zealand. Data are collected using a mixed methodology comprising an extensive survey of rural decision making, to which this study contributes, and a suite of semi-structured interviews. The interviews give an understanding of the origins and processes of adaptation constraints, while the surveys provide information about the extent to which they impact adaptive propensity. These adaptation constraints are then formalised as mathematical rules and written into an existing agent-based model of land use change, which is substantially modified for the purposes of this study. Different combinations of constraints are then tested in order to produce estimates of their economic impacts. The constraints on adaptation are found to significantly reduce profits relative to a specification that assumes rational choice among farmers. This is understood to be the first empirically derived estimate of the extent of the adaptation deficit. The size of the deficit identified in this study implies that current economic models are likely to significantly underestimate the costs of adaptation to climate change, the benefits of climate change mitigation, and the residual loss and damage climate change will cause.
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No Differences in Value-Based Decision-Making Due to Use of Oral ContraceptivesLewis, Carolin A., Kimmig, Ann-Christin S., Kroemer, Nils B., Pooseh, Shakoor, Smolka, Michael N., Sacher, Julia, Derntl, Birgit 07 June 2023 (has links)
Fluctuating ovarian hormones have been shown to affect decision-making processes in
women. While emerging evidence suggests effects of endogenous ovarian hormones
such as estradiol and progesterone on value-based decision-making in women, the
impact of exogenous synthetic hormones, as in most oral contraceptives, is not clear. In a
between-subjects design, we assessed measures of value-based decision-making in
three groups of women aged 18 to 29 years, during (1) active oral contraceptive intake
(N = 22), (2) the early follicular phase of the natural menstrual cycle (N = 20), and (3) the
periovulatory phase of the natural menstrual cycle (N = 20). Estradiol, progesterone,
testosterone, and sex-hormone binding globulin levels were assessed in all groups via
blood samples. We used a test battery which measured different facets of value-based
decision-making: delay discounting, risk-aversion, risk-seeking, and loss aversion. While
hormonal levels did show the expected patterns for the three groups, there were no
differences in value-based decision-making parameters. Consequently, Bayes factors
showed conclusive evidence in support of the null hypothesis. We conclude that women
on oral contraceptives show no differences in value-based decision-making compared to
the early follicular and periovulatory natural menstrual cycle phases.
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