No description available.

The objective of the research was to establish a scientifically-based decision making procedure for determining the amount of cash to be held at a cash point at any time without compromising the customer service level or incurring undue cost. To reach the objective, the problem was divided into the following subproblems: <ul> <li> To determine the cost parameters describing the nature of the problem of cash provision in South Africa.</li> <li> To investigate the characteristics unique to South African retail banking.</li> <li> To determine the nature of the demand distribution for a cash point.</li> <li> To develop a forecasting method appropriate for retail banking, although it was clearly stated that the methods used were specific to the branch studied.</li> <li> To investigate the existing order policies used by retail banks, as well as alternative order policies, with the aim of improving the cash replenishment process.</li> </ul> As a result of the investigation a generic decision model was developed which may be used to improve the process at branch level for retail banks in South Africa. Some suggestions were also made regarding the implementation and maintenance of the model. To investigate the cash replenishment problem, the cooperation of one of the leading retail banks in South Africa was obtained. A typical branch was selected. The total withdrawal, deposit patterns and the withdrawal patterns at the automated teller machines (ATM's) for a three month period during 1998 were investigated. The cost parameters relevant to the cash replenishment process were quantified. The approach followed was based on the classical inventory theory where the total cost of carrying inventory comprised three cost categories, i.e. storage cost, supply cost and shortage cost. Since the banks do not quantify the shortage cost, assumptions regarding the scope of the shortage cost had to be made. The next step was to determine the cost of the existing order policy followed by the branch. This figure was used as a benchmark once alternate policies were investigated. The investigation resulted in alternate policies which significantly reduced the daily cost involved in carrying inventory as well as reduced the average amount of cash carried at the branch. It was also shown, that the branch should consider using an appropriate forecasting method, since once forecasting was combined with an appropriate order policy, it was possible to reduce the cost of carrying cash inventories even further. In conclusion, the research report suggested an implementation plan to be followed at branch level pointing out that certain changes to information systems were required. In addition, training needs were identified to enable the branch operations manager to successfully use the decision support model. A comparison was drawn between the existing approach followed at the branch (which is mainly experience-based and largely of a random nature) to the proposed method. It was shown that the daily cost of carrying cash inventory could be reduced by 13 per cent per day. This represented a daily bottom line cost reduction ofR358. At the time that the research was carried out, this retail bank had 75 similar branches. Should the saving at this representative branch be extrapolated, it shows a potential saving of R8 000 000 per year at this category of branch. It was further shown that the average cash inventory at this branch could be reduced by 52 per cent using the proposed method. The study was limited to an investigation at one particular branch of a leading South African retail bank. The figures used to describe cash movements at the branch were of an extremely sensitive nature and were fairly difficult to obtain due to the way in which transactions are reported. The accuracy of the data provided by the branch could not be verified, but had to be accepted at face value. Although a particular case was investigated, a concerted effort was made to point out how the methodology may be used in the generic situation. During the period under review, the branch relocated to a complex across the street from its previous location in a busy shopping mall. This had a direct impact on the ATM withdrawal patterns at the two ATM's located at the branch. In addition, soon after the research was carried out, a number of other branches of the same retail bank were consolidated into this one particular branch. This would impact on the validity of the branch specific factors determined as part of the research. The study proved the applicability of industrial engineering principles in a service environment, where the added value of having the optimum cash amount available when required would impact directly on the bottom line of the bank and thereby enhance share-holder value. In the changing environment confronting retail banks, enhanced share-holder value is of the utmost importance to increase competitiveness and long-term survival. / Thesis (PhD (Industrial Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Industrial and Systems Engineering / unrestricted

The world of today is increasingly dependant on a functional, globalized economy. The defence and security establishments’ reliance on supplies and logistics is not new. First responders rely on many tools and systems that are critical to their endeavours. Somewhat disjoint at first glance, these domains share a common need for complex physical or logistical infrastructures such as power plants, ports, supply chains, to name a few examples.All of these are potentially vulnerable to attacks, disruptions, breakdowns, or other activities that disable the infrastructure and consequently cause important physical or economic damage. An obligation exists to protect these critical infrastructures and a decision support system that is able to detect, identify, and mitigate the risk of unwanted events would be invaluable in preventing the disastrous consequences of compromised infrastructure.This thesis explores the design and application of such a system. It starts with a pre-existing, actively researched risk management framework and proposes a methodology to apply it in new contexts, as well as contributions to provide the framework with the ability to solve new problems. Relevant case studies in critical infrastructure protection are presented, as well as applications of the developed methodology with the proposed modifications when suitable. Simulations, results, and insightful discussions are provided for each of the case studies. Finally, research trends, future work, and a conclusion are given, completing this thesis.

No description available.

Research in several domains has shown that the implementation of computerized decision support aids is often associated with issues of human-automation interaction, which can have disastrous consequences. One often-cited reason for these issues is the poor quality of the feedback that is provided to the operators through these tools. The objective of the proposed investigation is to examine how providing feedback through a decision support tool affects operator knowledge and performance in the context of a fault management task for naval gunfire support. A one-way between-groups comparison was made to investigate differences between providing decision support feedback (logic trace, mission impact, both, no feedback) in a fault management task. Logic trace feedback was posited to provide users with a representation of the logic that the decision support tool used in reaching a conclusion about the best course of action to perform and is posited to support better diagnostic performance. Mission impact feedback was posited to provide the operator with a description of the potential effects that a taking a course of action will have on the pre-planned mission and is expected to support better prognoses of the outcome of a particular fault. Finally, providing both feedback types was posited to support better compensatory actions for fault situations. Results indicated that decision support feedback has potential improve diagnosis and decrease errors of commission in these tasks.

This research designs a purchasing decision support system (PDSS) to assist real-world decision makings on whether to purchase or to sub-hire for equipment shortfalls problem, and to avoid shortage loss for rental business. Research methodology includes an extensive literature review on decision support systems, rental industry, and forecasting methods. A case study was conducted in a rental company to learn the real world problem and to develop the research topics. A data converter is developed to recover the missing data and transform data sets to the accumulative usage data for the forecasting model. Simulations on a number of forecasting methods was carried out to select the best method for the research data based on the lowest forecasting errors. A hybrid forecasting approach is proposed by adding company revenue data as a parameter, in addition to the selected regression model to further reduce the forecasting error. Using the forecasted equipment usage, a two stage PDSS model was constructed and integrated to the forecasting model and data converter. This research fills the gap between decision support system and rental industry. The PDSS now assists the rental company on equipments buy or hire decisions. A hybrid forecasting method has been introduced to improve the forecasting accuracy significantly. A dada converter is designed to efficiently resolve data missing and data format problems, which is very common in real world.

Encounters in which shared decision-making occur relies on patients and healthcare professionals establishing a partnership. Yet, little is known about the therapeutic relationship (TR) specifically for the implementation and use of patient decision aids (PDA) to facilitate shared decision-making. The aim of this thesis was to explore how the TR is considered when planning PDA implementation for patients eligible for or with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). Using Thorne's interpretive description approach, I conducted a secondary thematic analysis using transcripts with 17 healthcare professionals, ten patients and three family members. Findings were mapped to the TR elements. I identified three themes. First, Pieces of the puzzle: Elements of the TR revealed that while respect and therapeutic communication were identified as important for PDA implementation, other TR were either referred to implicitly or not at all. Second, Good intentions and challenges of establishing a TR revealed that healthcare professionals wanted to engage in TR but lacked time and felt discomfort navigating ICD decisions. Finally, in PDA as support for the TR, participants considered PDAs as being able to facilitate TR elements such as communication and respect, enhancing the consultation. In conclusion, there is a role for TR elements when planning PDA implementation. Further research is needed to explore the other therapeutic relationship elements of genuineness, manifesting a presence, active listening, and reciprocity.

Currently, computer-based support tools are widely used to facilitate the design process and have the potential to reduce design time, decrease product cost and enhance product quality. PDM (Product Data Management) and PLM (Product Lifecycle Management) are two types of computer-based information systems that have been developed to manage product lifecycle and product related data. While promising, significant limitations still exist, where information required to make decisions may not be available, may be lacking consistency, and may not be expressed in a general way for sharing among systems. Moreover, it is difficult for designers to consider multiple complex technical and economical criteria, relations, and objectives in product design simultaneously. In recent years, ontology-based method is a new and promising approach to manage knowledge in engineering, integrate multiple data resources, and facilitate the consideration of the complex relations among concepts and slots in decision making. The purpose of this research is to explore an ontology-based method to solve the limitations in present computer-based information systems for product design. The field of Design for Manufacturing (DFM) is selected for this study, and three primary aspects are investigated. First, a generalized DFM ontology is proposed and developed. The ontology fulfills the mathematical and logical constraints needed in DFM, as well as ontology editor capabilities to support the continuous improvement of the ontology. Second, the means to guide users to the proper information and integrate heterogeneous data resources is investigated. Third, based on the ontology and information integration, a decision support tool is developed to help designers consider the design problem in a systematic way and make design decisions efficiently based on accurate and comprehensive data. The methods and tools developed in this research are refined using example cases provided by the CFSP (The NSF Center for Friction Stir Processing). This includes cost models and a decision support environment. Errors that may occur in the research are categorized with management methods. An error ontology is built to help root cause analysis of errors and further reduce possible errors in the ontology and decision support tool. An evaluation methodology for the research is also investigated. / Ph. D.

This study develops a decision-support framework assisting the design of non-residential buildings with natural ventilation. The framework is composed of decision modules with input, analysis algorithms and output of natural ventilation design. The framework covers ventilation with natural driving force and mechanical-assisted ventilation. The framework has two major assessment levels: feasibility assessment and comparison of alternative natural ventilation approaches. The feasibility assessment modules assess the potential of the site with the design proposition for natural ventilation in terms of wind, temperature, humidity, noise and pollution conditions. All of the possible natural ventilation approaches and system designs are assessed by first applying constraints functions to each of the alternatives. Then the comparison of alternative approaches to natural ventilation continues by assessing the critical performance mandates that include energy savings, thermal comfort, acoustic control, indoor air quality and cost. Approaches are finally ranked based on their performance. / Ph. D.

Public Health requires a trans-disciplinary approach to tackle the breadth and depth of the issues it faces. Public health decisions are reached through the compilation of multiple data sources and their thoughtful synthesis. The complexity and importance of these decisions necessitates a variety of approaches, with simulations increasingly being relied upon. This dissertation describes several research efforts that demonstrate the utility of highly detailed simulations in public health decision-making. Simulations are frequently used to represent dynamic processes and to synthesize data to predict future outcomes, which can be used in cost-benefit and course of action analyses. The threat of pandemic influenza and its subsequent arrival prompted many simulation-based studies. This dissertation details several such studies conducted at the federal policy level. Their use for planning and the rapid response to the unfolding crisis demonstrates the integration of highly detailed simulations into the public health decision-making process. Most analytic methods developed by public health practitioners rely on historical data sources, but are intended to be broadly applicable. Oftentimes this data is limited or incomplete. This dissertation describes the use of highly detailed simulations to evaluate the performance of outbreak detection algorithms. By creating methods that generate realistic and configurable synthetic data, the reliance on these historical samples can be reduced, thus facilitating the development and improvement of methods for public health practice. The process of decision-making itself can significantly influence the decisions reached. Many fields use simulations to train and evaluate, however, public health has yet to fully adopt these approaches. This dissertation details the construction of highly detailed synthetic data that was used to build an interactive environment designed to evaluate the decision-making processes for pertussis control. The realistic data sets provide sufficient face validity to experienced public health practitioners, creating a natural and effective medium for training and evaluation purposes. Advances in high-performance computing, information sciences, computer science, and epidemiology are enabling increasing innovation in the application of simulations. This dissertation illustrates several applications of simulations to relevant public health practices and strongly argues that highly detailed simulations have an essential role to play in Public Health decision-making. / Ph. D.