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Modelování akumulace a tání sněhu v povodí Bystřice v Krušných horách / Modelling snow accumulation and melting in the Bystřice River basinKutláková, Lucie January 2010 (has links)
Dealing with the issue of spring flood events is primarily based on their causes. It is therefore important to study the processes of snow accumulation and snowmelt especially in mountain areas where the development of snow water equivalent (SWE) is primarily observed. The snow water equivalent indicates amount of the water in the snow and thus represents a runoff volume during the spring melting period and demonstrates the flood risk potential. In this thesis the lumped modelling approach of the rainfall-runoff model HEC- HMS was used. The model was applied in the Bystřice River basin in the Ore Mountains where the field measurements of the snow cover and SWE is carried out. Applied temperature-index method is the well-developed method because it takes into account both the melting during precipitation and melting in the period without any precipitation and aims to capture snow energy balance by means of air temperature. Three winter periods (2006, 2008 and 2009) were simulated. The evolution of the snow water equivalent was observed and the agreement between observed and simulated hydrographs was assessed in the closure profile Ostrov. Published results show the influence of winter course and character on the model capability to simulate the snow water equivalent and runoff. The observed and...
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DEVELOPMENT OF A DEGREE DAY MODEL AND ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS FOR CEROTOMA TRIFURCATA (COLEOPTERA: CHRYSOMELIDAE) IN ONTARIOMcCreary, Cara M. 06 September 2013 (has links)
Bean leaf beetle, Cerotoma trifurcata (Forster) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), is an economic pest of soybean in Ontario. Field cage studies were conducted in 2010-2011 to determine voltinism in southern Ontario and the effect of C. trifurcata feeding during soybean reproductive stages on soybean yield and quality. Thermal requirements for C. trifurcata development were determined in a laboratory study. Results of field and laboratory studies support the occurrence of one generation of C. trifurcata in southern Ontario. Pod-feeding increased with both number of beetles and soybean reproductive stage. An increase in defoliation and a reduction in seed quality were observed with increasing number of beetles. Monitoring programs for late-season pod-feeding should begin when degree days approach 500 (base 9.31°C). Economic thresholds for C. trifurcata during soybean reproductive stages range from 0.27 to 2.00 beetles per plant or 8 to 60 beetles per m of row. / Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food – University of Guelph Sustainable Production (Plants) Program and Grain Farmers of Ontario through the Farm Innovation Program.
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Modélisation hydrologique distribuée et perception de la variabilité hydro-climatique par la population du bassin versant de la Dudh Koshi (Népal) / Distributed hydrological modeling and local population perception of hydro-climatic variability on the Dudh Koshi River basin (Nepal)Savean, Marie 31 October 2014 (has links)
Les ressources en eau de l'Himalaya, vitales pour 800 millions de personnes, proviennent majoritairement de la mousson et de la fonte de la cryosphère. L'impact du changement climatique sur ces ressources, particulièrement important dans cette région selon le GIEC (2007), est un questionnement majeur à l'échelle de la chaîne himalayenne. Dans ce contexte, la quantification des composantes pluviales, nivales et glaciaires du bilan hydrologique est primordiale. A cet effet, un modèle hydrologique conceptuel distribué (HDSM) a été développé pour estimer la répartition de ces composantes dans les écoulements de la rivière Dudh Koshi de 2001 à 2005. Son bassin versant (3 700 km²), dont le point culminant est le Mont Everest, est situé à l'est du Népal. Les surfaces enneigées, calées à partir de données satellitaires, ainsi que les débits, sont correctement simulés par le modèle. Toutefois, le facteur de fonte glaciaire est surestimé, entrainant une composante glaciaire d'environ 60% des débits annuels, contre 5% selon la littérature. Cette surestimation compense une sous-estimation significative des précipitations, notamment solides. Après une correction des précipitations, les composantes pluviale, nivale et glaciaire expliquent respectivement, 63%, 9% et 29% des débits annuels de la Dudh Koshi sur la période 20012005. Pour compléter cette modélisation, les perceptions de la population sur les variations hydro-climatiques, obtenues à partir d'enquêtes dans les villages, ont été comparées aux données quantitatives utilisées et simulées par le modèle HDSM de 1977 à 2007. Cette comparaison la sous-estimation des précipitations solides. Les résultats mettent aussi en évidence une diminution significative des précipitations (totales, liquides et solides) en décembre, et une augmentation significative, non perçue par la population, des températures annuelles mesurées sur les 30 dernières années. Les deux approches, par modélisation et par enquêtes, soulignent les incertitudes importantes des données hydro-climatiques du bassin versant de la Dudh Koshi. Ces incertitudes limitent la compréhension des processus hydro-nivoglaciaires et l'estimation des impacts du changement climatique sur la ressource en eau de ce bassin. Les perceptions, bien qu'elles soient également associées à des incertitudes, apportent des informations complémentaires cruciales pour améliorer ces connaissances et la critique des données quantitatives de ce milieu de haute montagne himalayenne. / The Himalayan water resources, vital for 800 millions of people, come mainly from the monsoon and from the melting of the cryosphere. The impact of the climate change on these resources, especially significant in the area, is a major issue in the Himalayan range. In this context, the assessment of the rainfall, snowmelt and icemelt components of the water balance is crucial. Consequently, a distributed conceptual hydrological model (HDSM) was developed to estimate the contribution of each component to the Dudh Koshi River flows from 2001 to 2005. The Dudh Koshi River basin (3 700 km²), with the Mount Everest as highest peak, is located in Eastern Nepal. The snow cover areas, calibrated with satellite data, and as well as the runoff are correctly simulated by the model. Nevertheless, the ice degree-day factor is overestimated, leading to an icemelt contribution around 60% of annual discharge, against 5% in the literature. This overestimation offsets a significant underestimation of precipitation, especially solid precipitation. After a correction of the precipitation, the contributions of rainfall, snowmelt and icemelt represent respectively 63%, 9%, and 29% of the Dudh Koshi annual discharge from 2001 to 2005. To complete this modeling, perceptions of the population on the hydro-climatic variability, obtained by interviews in the villages, were compared to the quantitative data used and simulated by the model HDSM from 1977 to 2007. This comparison confirms the underestimation of precipitation, especially solid. These results also show a significant decrease of precipitation in December and a significant increase, not perceived by population, of the measured annual temperature on the last thirty years. Both approaches by modeling and interviews highlight large uncertainties on the hydro-climatic data of the Dudh Koshi River basin. These uncertainties limit the understanding of hydrological and cryospheric processes and the assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of this basin. Although they are also uncertain, the perceptions bring crucial complementary information to improve this knowledge and the analysis of the quantitative data of this high mountain Himalayan area.
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Ecological investigation of a new host-parasite relationship : <i>Parelaphostrongylus odocoilei</i> in thinhorn sheep (<i>Ovis dalli</i>)Jenkins, Emily Joan 20 September 2005
Discovery of a new host-parasite relationship, <i>Parelaphostrongylus odocoilei</i> in Dalls sheep (<i>Ovis dalli dalli</i>) in the Canadian North, prompted the first investigation of the geographic distribution, pathogenesis, ecology and epidemiology of this parasite, as well as the related protostrongylid <i>Protostrongylus stilesi</i>, at Subarctic latitudes (60-65ºN). All protostrongylid parasites have an indirect life-cycle, where first-stage larvae are shed in the feces of a mammalian definitive host, penetrate the foot of a gastropod intermediate host, and develop to infective third-stage larvae. <p> Protostrongylid larvae were recovered from over 2000 fecal samples from thinhorn sheep (<i>Ovis dalli</i>) and other hosts for <i>P. odocoilei</i> and <i>P. stilesi</i> across northwestern North America (38-69 ºN). Through novel application of molecular techniques to identify morphologically indistinguishable first-stage larvae, new records for <i>P. odocoilei</i> were established at 20 locations. This provided insight into the historical origins and biogeography of this new host-parasite relationship, and greatly expanded the known geographic range of both protostrongylids. <p> Clinical effects, including a neurological syndrome, were described in five thinhorn sheep experimentally infected with <i>P. odocoilei</i>. Neural and respiratory pathology in these five sheep were compared with over 50 wild Dalls sheep from a population naturally infected with <i>P. odocoilei</i> and <i>P. stilesi</i>. In the end stages, diffuse verminous interstitial pneumonia associated with P. odocoilei led to respiratory failure, and may have acted as a predisposing factor for bacterial pneumonia, which caused sporadic mortalities in this wild population. <p> At Subarctic latitudes, seasonal patterns in host and parasite availability, including larval shedding by Dalls sheep and larval development in experimentally infected gastropods, suggested that lambs become infected with <i>P. odocoilei</i> in a narrow seasonal window in their first fall on winter range. In combination with laboratory experiments, a degree day model for temperature-dependent larval development was developed, validated, and applied to describe and predict the effects of climate warming on protostrongylid parasites of thinhorn sheep in northern North America. In a future of climate warming, the narrow seasonal window for parasite development and transmission would be significantly extended, leading to amplification of populations of <i>P. odocoilei</i> and <i>P. stilesi</i> in endemic regions, and possibly range expansion of <i>P. odocoilei</i>. This may have consequences for the health of thinhorn sheep, as well as other wildlife that are important resources in the Canadian North.
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Ecological investigation of a new host-parasite relationship : <i>Parelaphostrongylus odocoilei</i> in thinhorn sheep (<i>Ovis dalli</i>)Jenkins, Emily Joan 20 September 2005 (has links)
Discovery of a new host-parasite relationship, <i>Parelaphostrongylus odocoilei</i> in Dalls sheep (<i>Ovis dalli dalli</i>) in the Canadian North, prompted the first investigation of the geographic distribution, pathogenesis, ecology and epidemiology of this parasite, as well as the related protostrongylid <i>Protostrongylus stilesi</i>, at Subarctic latitudes (60-65ºN). All protostrongylid parasites have an indirect life-cycle, where first-stage larvae are shed in the feces of a mammalian definitive host, penetrate the foot of a gastropod intermediate host, and develop to infective third-stage larvae. <p> Protostrongylid larvae were recovered from over 2000 fecal samples from thinhorn sheep (<i>Ovis dalli</i>) and other hosts for <i>P. odocoilei</i> and <i>P. stilesi</i> across northwestern North America (38-69 ºN). Through novel application of molecular techniques to identify morphologically indistinguishable first-stage larvae, new records for <i>P. odocoilei</i> were established at 20 locations. This provided insight into the historical origins and biogeography of this new host-parasite relationship, and greatly expanded the known geographic range of both protostrongylids. <p> Clinical effects, including a neurological syndrome, were described in five thinhorn sheep experimentally infected with <i>P. odocoilei</i>. Neural and respiratory pathology in these five sheep were compared with over 50 wild Dalls sheep from a population naturally infected with <i>P. odocoilei</i> and <i>P. stilesi</i>. In the end stages, diffuse verminous interstitial pneumonia associated with P. odocoilei led to respiratory failure, and may have acted as a predisposing factor for bacterial pneumonia, which caused sporadic mortalities in this wild population. <p> At Subarctic latitudes, seasonal patterns in host and parasite availability, including larval shedding by Dalls sheep and larval development in experimentally infected gastropods, suggested that lambs become infected with <i>P. odocoilei</i> in a narrow seasonal window in their first fall on winter range. In combination with laboratory experiments, a degree day model for temperature-dependent larval development was developed, validated, and applied to describe and predict the effects of climate warming on protostrongylid parasites of thinhorn sheep in northern North America. In a future of climate warming, the narrow seasonal window for parasite development and transmission would be significantly extended, leading to amplification of populations of <i>P. odocoilei</i> and <i>P. stilesi</i> in endemic regions, and possibly range expansion of <i>P. odocoilei</i>. This may have consequences for the health of thinhorn sheep, as well as other wildlife that are important resources in the Canadian North.
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Zur klimatischen Sensitivität der Massenbilanz der Eiskappe von Devon Island, Nunavut, KanadaZahnen, Nikolaus 22 December 2004 (has links)
In dieser Arbeit werden Berechnungen zur klimatischen Sensitivität der Eiskappe von Devon Island (Nunavut, Kanada) durchgeführt, die auf einem mit Wärmesummen arbeitenden Massenbilanzmodell basieren. Wichtigste Datenbasis für die Modellrechnungen sind dabei höhenabhängige Massenbilanzreihen der Devon-Eiskappe sowie tägliche Klimadaten der WMO-Station Resolute Bay. Durch die Bestimmung geeigneter Modellparameter (Temperaturgradienten, Wärmesummenkoeffizienten) ist es möglich, das mittlere Massenbilanzprofil gut zu simulieren. Das auf diese Weise kalibrierte Modell kann dann – als einfache Alternative zu Energiebilanzmodellen – zur Berechnung der Sensitivität der Massenbilanz auf Veränderungen von Temperatur und Niederschlag genutzt werden. Anwendungen des Modells verdeutlichen, dass die Massenbilanz der Devon-Eiskappe stark abhängig von der Entwicklung der Sommertemperaturen und die klimatische Sensitivität im Vergleich mit anderen Eismassen aus feuchteren Klimaten sehr klein ist. Die Einbeziehung der saisonalen Abhängigkeit der Massenbilanz kann schließlich helfen, eine mit Schwierigkeiten verbundene Rekonstruktion der jährlichen Massenbilanz zu verbessern. / In this study, a degree-day approach is used to carry out model simulations to determine the climatic sensitivity of the mass balance of the Devon Island ice cap (Nunavut, Canada). The most important data the model is fed by are a 38 yr long series of specific mass balance data and daily air temperature data from the WMO station Resolute Bay. By determining suitable model parameters (temperature lapse rates, degree-day coefficients) it is possible to simulate the mean mass balance profile convincingly. As a simple alternative to energy balance models, the calibrated degree-day model can then be used to determine the sensitivity of the mass balance to changes in temperature and precipitation. Results show that the mass balance of the Devon Ice Cap is strongly dependent on the summer temperatures and that the overall climatic sensitivity is small compared to those of other ice masses in more humid regions. The reconstruction of the mass balance series is attended with difficulties, but can be improved by including the mass balance''s seasonal sensitivity.
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