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<p>Due to the advancements in computing power and the availability of high-frequency data, the analyses of the high frequency stock data and market microstructure has become more and more important in econometrics. In the high frequency data setting, volatility is a very important indicator on the movement of stock prices and measure of risk. It is a key input in pricing of assets, portfolio reallocation, and risk management. In this thesis, we use the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of realized volatility, combined with Bayesian inference as well as Markov chain Monte Carlo method’s to estimate the innovation density of the daily realized volatility. A Dirichlet process is used as the prior in a countably infinite mixture model. The semi-parametric model provides a robust alternative to the models used in the literature. I find evidence of thick tails in the density of innovations to log-realized volatility.</p> / Master of Science (MSc)

With the rapid development of modern high-throughput technologies, scientists can now collect high-dimensional complex data in different forms, such as medical images, genomics measurements. However, acquisition of more data does not automatically lead to better knowledge discovery. One needs efficient and reliable analytical tools to extract useful information from complex datasets. The main objective of this dissertation is to develop innovative Bayesian methodologies to enable effective and efficient knowledge discovery from complex high-dimensional data. It contains two parts—the development of computationally efficient functional mixed models and the modeling of data heterogeneity via Dirichlet Diffusion Tree. The first part focuses on tackling the computational bottleneck in Bayesian functional mixed models. We propose a computational framework called variational functional mixed model (VFMM). This new method facilitates efficient data compression and high-performance computing in basis space. We also propose a new multiple testing procedure in basis space, which can be used to detect significant local regions. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated through two datasets, a mass spectrometry dataset in a cancer study and a neuroimaging dataset in an Alzheimer's disease study. The second part is about modeling data heterogeneity by using Dirichlet Diffusion Trees. We propose a Bayesian latent tree model that incorporates covariates of subjects to characterize the heterogeneity and uncover the latent tree structure underlying data. This innovative model may reveal the hierarchical evolution process through branch structures and estimate systematic differences between groups of samples. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the model through the simulation study and a brain tumor real data. / Doctor of Philosophy / With the rapid development of modern high-throughput technologies, scientists can now collect high-dimensional data in different forms, such as engineering signals, medical images, and genomics measurements. However, acquisition of such data does not automatically lead to efficient knowledge discovery. The main objective of this dissertation is to develop novel Bayesian methods to extract useful knowledge from complex high-dimensional data. It has two parts—the development of an ultra-fast functional mixed model and the modeling of data heterogeneity via Dirichlet Diffusion Trees. The first part focuses on developing approximate Bayesian methods in functional mixed models to estimate parameters and detect significant regions. Two datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed method—a mass spectrometry dataset in a cancer study and a neuroimaging dataset in an Alzheimer's disease study. The second part focuses on modeling data heterogeneity via Dirichlet Diffusion Trees. The method helps uncover the underlying hierarchical tree structures and estimate systematic differences between the group of samples. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method through the brain tumor imaging data.