Two projects are documented within this MEM Report: I. The first project examined what was learnt involving the critical infrastructure in the aftermath of natural disasters in the Canterbury region of New Zealand – the most prominent being the series of earthquakes between 2010 and 2011. The project identified several learning gaps, leading to recommendations for further investigations that could add significant value for the lifeline infrastructure community. II. Following the Lifeline Lesson Learnt Project, the Disaster Mitigation Guideline series was initiated with two booklets, one on Emergency Potable Water and a second on Emergency Sanitation. The key message from both projects is that we can and must learn from disasters. The projects described are part of the emergency management, and critical infrastructure learning cycles – presenting knowledge captured by others in a digestible format, enabling the lessons to be reapplied. Without these kinds of projects, there will be fewer opportunities to learn from other’s successes and failures when it comes to preparing for natural disasters.

Several laterally extensive candidate tsunami deposits are preserved along coastlines facing the eastern Java Trench, indicating it has experienced mega-thrust earthquakes in the past. We investigated 37 coastal sites in Bali, Lombok, Sumba and Timor islands, many of which preserve course sand and pebble layers that overlie sharp basal contacts with scour marks into the mud, fine upward in grain size, and have bimodal grain size distributions. Other unique features are the common occurrence of marine fossils and concentrations of heavy minerals. The occurrence of these high-energy deposits interlayered with clay-rich units indicates the coarse clastics are anomalous because they were deposited in what is normally a very low-energy depositional environment. The lateral extent and paucity of thin, coarse clastic layers with marine organisms are inconsistent with local stream flood event, and the proximity to the equator of the sites diminishes the possibility of marine flood events from cyclones. The sparse, but consistent, the occurrence of at least two candidate tsunami deposits at depths of 1 and 2 meters over 950 km along the strike of the Java Trench may reveal that mega-thrust earthquakes have occurred there and generated giant tsunamis in the recent past.Five widely scattered imbricated boulder deposits are also found on Bali, Lombok, and Sumba. The boulders consist of slabs of hardpan up to 2.5 m in length and 80 cm thick that was torn from a near-shore seabed and stacked on top of one another. Some of the boulders were carried over the erosional coastal bank and deposited up to 100 meters inland. Comparisons with imbricated boulder ridges formed during the 1994 tsunami in east Java indicate that these deposits are from one or multiple tsunamis sourced by the Java Trench.Experiments in effective ways to communicate and implement tsunami disaster mitigation strategies have led us to train local communities about the 20-20-20 rule. If coastal communities experience more than 20 seconds of shaking from an earthquake, even if it is not intense, they should evacuate the coast. The time delay between the earthquake and arrival of tsunami waves is around 20 minutes, which is the time window for evacuation. Some tsunami waves may be as high as 20 meters, which is the target elevation for evacuation. Adopting the 20-20-20 rule could save thousands of lives throughout the region, especially in Bali where nearly 1 million people inhabit likely tsunami inundation zones.

This thesis investigates the underestimated ownership constraints in built-up urban areas as the determining characteristic of the urban redevelopment process after the Marmara Earthquake. In the first part of the study, public provisions for permanent housing have been surveyed. It is observed that relocation of the survivors entitled to such housing sites considerably far away from existing urban areas has generated the need for many adjustments on the property patterns. Without any framework for the remaining ownership and development rights in those damaged urban areas, nearly 43 000 housing units have been developed mostly by the state in order to compensate for the lost properties of disaster survivors. On the other hand, municipalities could not commence any considerable redevelopment framework in damaged urban areas after the earthquake. They were restricted to revising their development plans with respect to new geological surveys and to redefining the ideal building regulations with low building heights. Adaptation of these renewed plans to existing conditions has necessitated an immense amount of property readjustments. However, this is nearly impossible with existing plan implementation instruments which are incapable of mandating the exchange mechanisms for the reduced development rights. Lack of three dimensional property adjustment and purchasing methods different from constructions option engendered the implementation problem of these development plans prepared after the earthquake. In this framework, a field survey has been carried out in the city of Adapazari and the post-earthquake urban redevelopment process is investigated. Transformation of the properties are plotted in &Ccedil / ark Street, where the required resharing of reduced development rights with respect to new development plan can be partially observed. Besides, the success of the forthcoming urban planning process in Turkey, which is composed of urban rehabilitation and risk mitigation works, again depends upon the capacity to realize ownership and development right transformation in urban environments. As a result, the Marmara Earthquake presents the necessary inputs and justification to restructure the property institution in urban planning.

Several laterally extensive candidate tsunami deposits are preserved along coastlines facing the eastern Java Trench, indicating it has experienced mega-thrust earthquakes in the past. We investigated 37 coastal sites in Bali, Lombok, Sumba and Timor islands, many of which preserve course sand and pebble layers that overlie sharp basal contacts with scour marks into the mud, fine upward in grain size, and have bimodal grain size distributions. Other unique features are the common occurrence of marine fossils and concentrations of heavy minerals. The occurrence of these high-energy deposits interlayered with clay-rich units indicates the coarse clastics are anomalous because they were deposited in what is normally a very low-energy depositional environment. The lateral extent and paucity of thin, coarse clastic layers with marine organisms are inconsistent with local stream flood event, and the proximity to the equator of the sites diminishes the possibility of marine flood events from cyclones. The sparse, but consistent, the occurrence of at least two candidate tsunami deposits at depths of 1 and 2 meters over 950 km along the strike of the Java Trench may reveal that mega-thrust earthquakes have occurred there and generated giant tsunamis in the recent past. Five widely scattered imbricated boulder deposits are also found on Bali, Lombok, and Sumba. The boulders consist of slabs of hardpan up to 2.5 m in length and 80 cm thick that was torn from a near-shore seabed and stacked on top of one another. Some of the boulders were carried over the erosional coastal bank and deposited up to 100 meters inland. Comparisons with imbricated boulder ridges formed during the 1994 tsunami in east Java indicate that these deposits are from one or multiple tsunamis sourced by the Java Trench. Experiments in effective ways to communicate and implement tsunami disaster mitigation strategies have led us to train local communities about the 20-20-20 rule. If coastal communities experience more than 20 seconds of shaking from an earthquake, even if it is not intense, they should evacuate the coast. The time delay between the earthquake and arrival of tsunami waves is around 20 minutes, which is the time window for evacuation. Some tsunami waves may be as high as 20 meters, which is the target elevation for evacuation. Adopting the 20-20-20 rule could save thousands of lives throughout the region, especially in Bali where nearly 1 million people inhabit likely tsunami inundation zones.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第19977号 / 工博第4221号 / 新制||工||1653(附属図書館) / 33073 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 川﨑 雅史, 教授 中川 大, 准教授 久保田 善明 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

In 1852, a five-minute long earthquake hit the Banda Arc region that was felt over most of Indonesia. It caused uplift of new islands and sent a tsunami across the Banda Sea that reached a height of 8 meters at Banda Neira and was also registered at Ambon, Saparua and other islands. Records of the 1852 earthquake at multiple locations provide the constraints needed to reconstruct the disastrous event through earthquake intensity analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami. Using tsunami heights and arrival times as the major constraints, best fit numerical models of the tsunami were constructed using Clawpack. These models indicate that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event along the Tanimbar Trough with a Mw of around 8.4. At least 10-15 meters of elastic strain energy has accumulated along the Tanimbar Through since the 1852 event, and the population in the region has increased exponentially. When another event occurs ≥ that in 1852, there will be many more people and treasure in harms way.

Recent research suggests that race and ethnicity influence post-buyout land management in Harris County, Texas, yet lacked systematic empirical evidence to fully understand the relationship between management and demographics. To address this gap, this study analyzes post-buyout land use management practices and compares them with the socio-economic characteristics of the adjacent neighborhood at the block level in Harris County, Texas, an area with a long buyout history. I first identified post-buyout land use management practices in Harris County through county records and photo documentation of approximately 2000 buyout sites through fieldwork from 2017-2022. Second, using Ode and colleagues' framework for identifying visual characteristics on the landscape, I developed an index and evaluated post-buyout land use management practices for aesthetics, utility, and function. Finally, I spatially analyzed the socio-demographic composition of buyout neighborhoods using U.S. Census American Community Survey 5-year data (2017-2021) and compared it with post-buyout land use management practices in ArcGIS. From this spatial analysis, I identified differences in post-buyout land management that homeownership status, race, and ethnicity affected post-buyout land management. Most buyout properties in Harris County are managed as mowed, vacant lots regardless of socio-demographics; however, litter and debris were more prominent in predominantly Black neighborhoods. Of note, higher utility land uses were more frequent in predominantly white neighborhoods, but buyout sites developed into parks were located in lower-income and predominantly Hispanic areas suggesting variance in land use by socio-demographics.

Throughout history floods have been part of the human experience. They are recurring phenomena that form a necessary and enduring feature of all river basin and lowland coastal systems. In an average year, they benefit millions of people who depend on them. In the more developed countries, major floods can be the largest cause of economic losses from natural disasters, and are also a major cause of disaster-related deaths in the less developed countries. Flood disaster mitigation research was conducted to determine how remotely sensed data can effectively be used to produce accurate flood plain maps (FPMs), and to identify/quantify the sources of error associated with such data. Differences were analyzed between flood maps produced by an automated remote sensing analysis tailored to the available satellite remote sensing datasets (rFPM), the 100-year flooded areas "predicted" by the Flood Insurance Rate Maps, and FPMs based on DEM and hydrological data (aFPM). Landuse/landcover was also examined to determine its influence on rFPM errors. These errors were identified and the results were integrated in a GIS to minimize landuse / landcover effects. Two substantial flood events were analyzed. These events were selected because of their similar characteristics (i.e., the existence of FIRM or Q3 data; flood data which included flood peaks, rating curves, and flood profiles; and DEM and remote sensing imagery.) Automatic feature extraction was determined to be an important component for successful flood analysis. A process network, in conjunction with domain specific information, was used to map raw remotely sensed data onto a representation that is more compatible with a GIS data model. From a practical point of view, rFPM provides a way to automatically match existing data models to the type of remote sensing data available for each event under investigation. Overall, results showed how remote sensing could contribute to the complex problem of flood management by providing an efficient way to revise the National Flood Insurance Program maps.

Masters in Public Administration - MPA / The occurrence of disasters around the world has in the past few decades increased at an alarming rate, which has necessitated an urgent need for mitigation strategies. As part of its planning and precautionary measures in responding to disasters, the City of Cape Town(CoCT) established a Disaster Risk Management Centre (DRMC) to co-ordinate such occurrences. This study is focused on investigating to what extent the CoCT’s DRMC has prepared individuals and communities to stay resilient.South Africa lies within a region of Southern Africa that has a semi-arid to arid climate,thereby making most parts of the country vulnerable to numerous disasters. Given the prevalence of the localised disasters in the country, they have the potential to overwhelm the capacity of any affected community. Furthermore, in 2011, the CoCT was approached by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives(ICLEI) to sign up as a Role Model City for the “Making Cities Resilient--My City is Getting Ready’’ Campaign, in collaboration with UNISDR. It became the first in South African City to be granted “Role Model City’’ status, becoming the second African city to be designated as a ‘‘Role Model City’’.The findings of this study indicate that the CoCT, through its DRMC, has tried to heighten awareness in communities to prepare them against disasters. Another important finding is that there is inadequate involvement of communities in CoCT training programmes. Poorer communities, which are mostly affected by disasters, barely receive any form of capacity building, that is, through training. In addition, the language of communication used in brochures, leaflets and other forms of media is mostly in English and Afrikaans, while the majority of people living in informal settlements speak isiXhosa. The study provides an insight into the need to consolidate strategies to address disaster management

Masters in Public Administration - MPA / The problem question of this study is how the City of Cape Town, as a metro municipality went about implementing Disaster Risk Assessments. While the National Disaster Management Centre acknowledges that municipalities are battling to perform Disaster Risk Assessments. Understanding what was done, by whom and when will aid in the understanding of implementing Disaster Risk Assessments. Uncovering the prospects and challenges they faced and will help shed light on the guidance that is required by other municipalities, although this study’s inference is limited by the methodology. The relatively new Disaster Management Act requires a shift from old civil defence legislation to a proactive disaster risk reduction mode, with new institutional arrangements. The shift to a proactive disaster risk reduction approach required by the new legislation cannot be achieved without firstly implementing these new institutional and policy arrangements and secondly, implementing this first and vital step in the disaster risk reduction process namely, Disaster Risk Assessments. The study also seeks to understand in the community was involved. This is a qualitative study, i.e. it contains descriptive statistics and narratives. It used questionnaires to provide numerical and descriptive data to measure compliance to the Disaster Management Act in terms of the institutional arrangements implemented by the City of Cape Town. Secondly, qualitative data was collected through semi-structured interviews to provide data to understand the challenges and prospects encountered in performing Disaster Risk Assessments. A literature review was also undertaken to highlight the current debates in Disaster Risk Reduction. The stratified sample was from the officials employed at the City’s Disaster Management Centre, Area Managers, NGOs, Ward Councillors and Consultants. The data was collated and the analysed. The objective is to primarily understand what was done, by whom, when and secondly to understand the prospects and challenges faced. The findings, recommendations and areas of future study are captured in this research report.