MODRSP is program used for calculating drawdown, velocity, storage losses and capture response functions for multi - aquifer ground -water flow systems. Capture is defined as the sum of the increase in aquifer recharge and decrease in aquifer discharge as a result of an applied stress from pumping [Bredehoeft et al., 19821. The capture phenomena treated by MODRSP are stream- aquifer leakance, reduction of evapotranspiration losses, leakance from adjacent aquifers, flows to and from prescribed head boundaries and increases or decreases in natural recharge or discharge from head dependent boundaries. The response functions are independent of the magnitude of the stresses and are dependent on the type of partial differential equation, the boundary and initial conditions and the parameters thereof, and the spatial and temporal location of stresses. The aquifers modeled may have irregular -shaped areal boundaries and non -homogeneous transmissive and storage qualities. For regional aquifers, the stresses are generally pumpages from wells. The utility of response functions arises from their capacity to be embedded in management models. The management models consist of a mathematical expression of a criterion to measure preference, and sets of constraints which act to limit the preferred actions. The response functions are incorporated into constraints that couple the hydrologic system with the management system (Maddock, 1972). MODRSP is a modification of MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1984,1988). MODRSP uses many of the data input structures of MODFLOW, but there are major differences between the two programs. The differences are discussed in Chapters 4 and 5. An abbreviated theoretical development is presented in Chapter 2, a more complete theoretical development may be found in Maddock and Lacher (1991). The finite difference technique discussion presented in Chapter 3 is a synopsis of that covered more completely in McDonald and Harbaugh (1988). Subprogram organization is presented in Chapter 4 with the data requirements explained in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 contains three example applications of MODRSP.

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Ur ett byggtekniskt perspektiv kan en sänkning i grundvattenytan i en sluten akvifer i ett område med lerjordar ge sättningar som kan skada byggkonstruktioner. Kopplingen mellan hydrogeologi och geoteknik är tydlig men oftast görs grova uppskattningar av konsekvenserna av en grundvattensänkning. Detta beror på att sättning vanligen beräknas i enskilda punkter där data finns att tillgå vilket endast ger resultat för sättningsberäkningar i dessa punkter. Ytor emellan punkterna utelämnas ofta. Dessutom är det inte vanligt att grundvattensänkningen beräknas med etablerade mjukvaruverktyg som Modflow för att få en mer detaljerad bild av avsänkningen och påverkansområdet.Denna studie kopplar samman en numerisk grundvattenmodell simulerad med Modflow samt en jordmodell, framtagen och interpolerad med kriging, med sättningsberäkningar. Detta resulterar i en integrerad modell som har till syfte att generera översiktskartor med predikterad sättning som resultat av grundvattensänkningar i utvalt område. Den integrerade modellen och sättningsberäkningarna är programmerade till denna studie med beräkningsverktyget Octave. Den integrerade sättningsmodellen testas på en fallstudie med verkliga geotekniska och hydrogeologiska data från ett område i Mälardalen. I fallstudien har ett hypotetiskt fall av grundvattensänkning simulerats. Grundläggande hydrogeologisk teori för slutna akviferer används för att bedöma vilka laster och ökad effektiv spänning grundvatten-sänkningar ger upphov till i jorden för fallstudien.Resultaten, i form av meter sättning, från den integrerade sättningsmodellen har verifierats mot beräkningar i programvaran Geosuite Settlement som är ett erkänt verktyg för sättningsberäkningar. Det visar sig att den integrerade sättningsmodellen beräknar sättningar med stor noggrannhet. Resultatet från grundvattenmodellen jämförs med en kriginginterpolerad grundvattenyta baserad på mätningar i grund-vattenrör i området. Grundvattenmodellen har i sin tur jordmodellen integrerad samt en vattenbalans som båda är baserade på verkliga data.Resultaten från fallstudien visar att oväntat stora sättningar kan förekomma i områden som ligger relativt långt ifrån källan för grundvattenavsänkningen. Detta motiverar användandet av en sådan metod för att bedöma risken för sättning.Till fallstudien har tre olika jordmodeller använts både i simulering av grundvattenströmning och simulering med den integrerade sättningsmodellen. De tre jordmodellerna skiljer sig åt så till vida att de har olika mängd data som kriginginterpolationen grundar sig på, det innebär också olika datatäthet i jordmodellerna. Detta har till syfte att undersöka hur sättningsbilden påverkas av datatätheten i jordmodellen och även hur grundvattenmodellen respektive sättningsmodellen påverkas. Resultaten i respektive modell påverkas inte mer än försumbart av datatätheten i jordmodellen visar fallstudien. / From a construction engineering point of view groundwater drawdown in a confined aquifer can result in ground subsidence that can damage buildings and constructions. The connection between hydrogeology and soil mechanics is clear, however when estimating ground settlement as a result of groundwater drawdown the estimations are often rough. This is due to that settlement is traditionally calculated with methods that only allow calculations in single points where geotechnical data is estimated. Areas between these points are often left out of the calculations. Groundwater drawdown is seldom simulated with acknowledged software programs like Modflow when estimating groundwater lowering and the affected area.This study combines a groundwater model simulated in Modflow and a soil strata model, interpolated with Kriging, with settlement calculations. This ends up as a an integrated soil settlement model which has the purpose to generate overview maps over areas that are sensitive to settlement as a result of ground water lowering. The integrated model is programmed in Octave for this study. The model is then tested with a case study that uses data from a real construction project in the area of Mälardalen. A hypothetical case of ground water lowering is simulated for the case study. Fundamental hydro-geological theory is used to estimate loads and effective stresses from the lowering of the water table.The result from the integrated model has been validated against calculations of settlement in the software Geosuite Settlement which is an acknowledged method for settlement calculations. This shows that the integrated model calculates settlement with great precision. The modeled initial ground water table is compared with a kriginginterpolated groundwater table which is based on data from ground water pipes in the area. Based on the comparison the initial ground water conditions simulated in Modflow are accepted. This simulated ground water model has the soil model and also a water balance integrated.The results from the case study show that unexpectedly large ground settlements can occur even far from the source of the ground water lowering.For the case study three different soil models are used, both in the ground water model and in the integrated model. The soil models differ in a way that they are based on different amounts of data from which the kriging interpolation is done. The purpose for this is to investigate what effects this might have on the ground water model and the integrated model respectively. The results from these different simulations show insignificantly small differences.

Traditional analysis of aquifer tests uses the observed hydrograph at one well caused by pumping at another well for estimating transmissivity and storage coefficient of an aquifer. The analysis relies on Theis' or Jacob's approximate solution, which assumes aquifer homogeneity. Aquifers are inherently heterogeneous at different scales. If the observation well taps into a low permeability zone while the pumping well is located in a high permeable zone, the resulting situation contradicts the homogeneity assumption embedded in the traditional analysis. As a result, a practical but important question we ask: What do we derive from the traditional analysis? Using numerical experiments in synthetic aquifers, we answer this question. Results of the experiments indicate that the effective transmissivity, Teff , and storage coefficient, Seff , values vary with time, as well as the principal directions of the transmissivity, but both values approach their geometric means of the aquifer at large times. Analysis of the estimated transmissivity (T) and storage coefficient (S ) using well hydrographs from a single observation well shows that at early times, both the estimated T and S values vary with time. At late times, both estimates approach local averages near the observation well. The T value approaches but does not equal Teff , representing an average value over a broad area in the vicinity of the observation well while the S value converges to the value dominated by the storage coefficient near the observation wells (i.e., its average area is much smaller than that of the t value).

This work is devoted to portfolio optimisation problem arising in the context of constrained optimisation. Despite the classical convex constraints imposed on proportion of wealth invested in the stock this work deals with the pathwise constraints. The drawdown constraint requires an investor's wealth process to dominate a given function of its up-to-date maximum. Typically, fund managers are required to post information about their maximum portfolio drawdowns as a part of the risk management procedure. One of the results of this work connects the drawdown constrained and the unconstrained asymptotic portfolio optimisation problems in an explicit manner. The main tools for achieving the connection are Azema-Yor processes which by their nature satisfy the drawdown condition. The other result deals with the constraint given as a floor process which the wealth process is required to dominate. The motivation arises from the financial market where the class of products serve as a protection from a downfall, e.g. out of the money put options. The main result provides the wealth process which dominates any fraction of a given floor and preserves the optimality. In the second part of this work we consider a problem of a lifetime utility of consumption maximisation subject to a drawdown constraint. One contribution to the existing literature consists of extending the results to incorporate a general drawdown constraint for a case of a zero interest rate market. The second result provides the first heuristic results for a problem in a presence of interest rates which differs qualitatively from a zero interest rate case. Also the last chapter concludes with the conjecture for the general case of the problem.

I investigated the effects of multi-decadal water table drawdown on carbon (C) exchange, as well as functional relationships between C fluxes and environmental controls, in a boreal rich fen. Drainage increased ecosystem respiration of CO2 and decreased CH4 fluxes, but did not affect understory primary productivity. Drainage altered plant responses to light availability, as well as the responses of ecosystem respiration and CH4 flux to water table position. In a laboratory experiment, I found that drainage reduced potential CO2 and CH4 fluxes suggestive of decreased peat substrate quality. Together, these results indicate that long-term drying increases C losses and that both environmental conditions and substrate quality influenced C fluxes post-drainage. My findings suggest that C losses from increased ecosystem respiration may not be mitigated by increases in plant productivity or decreases in substrate quality, and that long-term drainage reduced C storage capacity in this boreal fen. / The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada

Canada is the second highest producer of hydroelectric energy in the world. Nearly 50 of the hydroelectric reservoirs in the country have a capacity larger than 1 billion m3. Despite the great number and extent of hydropower developments in Canada and around the world, relatively little is known about how dams and their operations influence terrestrial and semi-aquatic wildlife. Reservoirs at northern latitudes are characterized by large fluctuations in water level, which create modified shorelines called drawdown zones. To evaluate the impact of these disturbances on amphibians and reptiles, I conducted visual encounter surveys at two sites in the drawdown zone of Kinbasket Reservoir, near Valemount, B.C. From April to August of 2010 and 2011, I documented the habitat use, reproductive phenology, and body condition of two amphibian species (Anaxyrus boreas and Rana luteiventris) as well as the growth, movements, diet, and distribution of one species of garter snake (Thamnophis sirtalis). At two sites in the drawdown zone, A. boreas and R. luteiventris were present for the duration of the summer and utilized several ponds for reproduction. The presence and abundance of Rana luteiventris eggs were generally associated with ponds that had higher mean temperatures, higher mean pH, and the presence of fish. In 2010, there was sufficient time for amphibian breeding and metamorphosis to occur before the reservoir inundated the drawdown zone, but low precipitation levels in that year led to desiccation of many breeding ponds. In 2011, high rainfall and snowmelt led to early inundation of breeding ponds, and thousands of tadpoles were presumably swept into the reservoir. Gravid Thamnophis sirtalis were found at just one of two sites in the drawdown zone, but both sites were frequented by foraging individuals of this species. Anaxyrus boreas appears to be the primary prey of T. sirtalis in the drawdown zone. An improved understanding of how the amphibians and reptiles at Kinbasket Reservoir have persisted in this highly disturbed environment may be vital to their conservation — the activation of a new generating unit at Mica Dam in 2014 will alter the pattern and timing of reservoir inundation for the first time since it was constructed 40 years previously. / Graduate

Present master of science thesis has been carried out at the Swedish Road Administration consulting services (Vägverket Konsult) in Karlstad. The purpose of the study is to investigate how well the calculated drawdown of the groundwater table predicts the actual drawdown when the road and railway gates at the studied sites are built. For this purpose the groundwater levels at the three bridges were measured during 6 months. The bridges in question are two railway bridges situated in Ölme and Ulvåker and one road bridge crossing a pedestrian and cycling path in Lidköping. In Ölme the calculated area of influence was smaller than the measured one. It differed up to 30 meters, i.e. 80 %. In Lidköping the calculated area of influence agreed well with the measured one, but the groundwater level that the calculations were made from was more than one meter too low. In Ulvåker the measured groundwater levels were influenced by other factors and no conclusions could be drawn. When calculating how the groundwater level is affected from road and railway bridge constructions it is important to make sure to measure the groundwater level before the construction is made so that the unaffected level is known. Moreover the radius of the well should be set to a value less than 0.5 meters. It is also important that the conductivity is investigated thoroughly especially for confined aquifers. When measuring groundwater levels the examiner must make sure to plan the distances and depths of the piezometer wells, when to perform the measurements and how to protect the water in the wells from freezing. / Detta examensarbete är utfört på Vägverket Konsult i Karlstad. Syftet med arbetet är att med några exempel undersöka hur väl den beräknade permanenta grundvattensänkningen överensstämmer med den verkliga grundvattensänkning som görs vid byggen av vägportar. Arbetet utfördes genom att under 6 månader mäta grundvattennivåerna vid tre vägportar. De undersökta portarna är en väg – järnvägport i Ölme, en gång- och cykelväg – vägport i Lidköping och en väg – järnvägport i Ulvåker. I Ölme framkom att den permanenta grundvattensänkningen har ett större influensområde än den beräknade. Differensen uppgick som mest till 30m vilket motsvarar en avvikelse på ca 80 %. I Lidköping överensstämmer beräkningen av influensradierna väl med de uppmätta, medan grundvattennivån som beräkningarna gjordes från ligger drygt en meter för lågt. I Ulvåker är den uppmätta avsänkningen påverkad av yttre faktorer och därför kan inga slutsatser dras. Vid grundvattensänkningsberäkningar är det viktigt att den opåverkade grundvattennivån är känd, att brunnsradien sätts till ett tal mindre än 0,5 meter och att bestämningen av konduktiviteten är extra noga vid sluten akvifer. När grundvattennivåerna ska mätas bör avstånd och höjdnivå på grundvattenrören bestämmas noga, mätningarna utföras kontinuerligt under en längre tid och eventuell tillsats av frostskydd i grundvattenrören tänkas igenom.

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the adoption of a simple trend-following quantitative method improves the risk-adjusted returns across various asset classes within a South African market setting. A simple moving average timing model is tested since 1925 on the South African equity and bond markets and within a tactical asset allocation framework. The timing solution when applied to the JSE All Share Index, RSA Government Bond Index and within an equally weighted portfolio improved returns, while reducing risk. Testing the model within sample by decade highlighted periods of inferior return performance providing evidence to support prior research (Faber, 2007) that the timing model acts as a risk reduction technique with limited to no impact on return. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted