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Yes / Approximately 97% of the country is experiencing drought conditions. Due to gross water mismanagement and its damaging impact on the country, Iran faces the worst situation in water resources of any industrialized nation. Tens of thousands of villages have been deserted and most of the major urban centers have passed their limits to absorb new rural migrants. Some officials predict that in less than 25 years, 50 million Iranians would be displaced from their current homes because of the pressing ecological conditions. This is happening at the time that the gap between the grassroots and the state has widened and there is increasing dissatisfaction with governance plagued by corruption, nepotism, economic mismanagement, unaccountability and a foreign policy which has produced various regional and trans-regional adversaries. This paper evaluates the pressing ecological challenges in Iran and by conceptualizing political resilience it critically evaluates whether the Islamic Republic is prepared to face the devastating ecological crisis and its socio-economic consequences.

Heat shock proteins (HSPs) are expressed in response to environmental stresses. Compared to other kingdoms, plant HSP families are larger, presumably the result of adaptation to a wide range of stresses. Following on an analysis of drought stress characteristics in loblolly pine (Watkinson et al., 2003), expression patterns of HSP gene expression during photosynthetic acclimation were examined. One cycle of mild (-1Mpa) followed by two cycles of severe stress (-1.7Mpa) were probed for conditioning effects. Photosynthetic acclimation occurred after the first cycle. No acclimation occurred without the first mild cycle. Microarray/RT-PCR analyses showed that a pine homolog to GRP94 (ER-resident HSP90) was up-regulated after rehydration coincident with acclimation. This GRP94 is closely related to GRP94 from the desiccation tolerant plant X. viscosa, supporting the importance of this gene during acclimation to water deficit. HSP genes whose products localized to the mitochondrion showed gradual up-regulation after consecutive cycles of severe drought. The Arabidopsis pine GRP94 homolog, (AtHSP90-7) was then analyzed, using bioinformatics (Pati et al., 2006) and laboratory tools. Genes encoding putative candidate co-chaperones for GRP94 and other HSP90s were discovered, which contained water stress-related cis-elements. Arabidopsis (Col-0) wild type and two T-DNA insertion mutants in HSP90-7 were used to study the importance of this gene for photosynthetic acclimation. Only the mutants were able to acclimate to drought stress, with the level of AtHSP90-7 expression in the mutants being reduced compared to the wild type. AtHSP90-7 may have a different role in Arabidopsis, and its reduced expression activated other protective genes (Klein et al., 2006). Responses to extreme drought in resistant (Sullu) and susceptible (Negra Ojosa) lines of Andean potatoes were also compared in order to identify relationships between HSPs gene expression, and tolerance, defined as the ability to maintain photosynthesis at 50% after 25 days of drought and to recover from the stress. Tolerance was correlated with up-regulation of HSPs (mostly chaperonins) and antioxidant genes all of whose gene products are located in the chloroplast. / Ph. D.

This dissertation is comprised of three essays that generate methods to measure the ex-ante economic impacts of agriculture technology innovations. The first essay entitled 'Valuing Intellectual Property Rights in an Imperfectly Competitive Market: A Biopharming Application' presents a method for valuing the intellectual property rights (IPRs) for an innovation that lowers product production costs below those associated with the patented process of a monopolist. The application to Glucocerebrosidase enzyme from transgenic tobacco suggests an intellectual property rights (IPRs) value of about $1.75 billion. Despite the innovator's market power, significant surplus gains also accrue to consumers. Further, U.S. antitrust laws that prohibit IPRs acquisition by the current monopolist increase consumer welfare by almost 50 percent. The second essay entitled 'Ex-Ante Analysis of the Benefits of Transgenic Drought Tolerance Research on Cereal Crops in Low-Income Countries' develops a framework to examine the ex-ante benefits of transgenic research on drought in eight low-income countries, including the benefits to producers and consumers from farm income stabilization and the potential magnitude of private sector profits from IPRs. The framework employs country-specific agroecological-drought risk zones and considers both yield increases and yield variance reductions when estimating producer and consumer benefits from research. Benefits from yield variance reductions are shown to be an important component of aggregate drought research benefits, representing 40 percent of total benefits across the eight countries. Further, estimated annual private sector benefits of $US 178 million suggest that significant incentives exist for private sector participation in transgenic drought tolerance research. The third essay entitled 'Ex-Ante Evaluation of Alternative Strategies to Increase the Stability of Cropping Systems in Eastern and Central Africa' examines the ex-ante economic impact of transgenic drought resistance maize breeding and of conventional maize, millet and sorghum drought resistance breeding in Kenya, Uganda, and the Amhara region in Ethiopia. An expected utility framework is combined with a partial equilibrium model and a spatial drought risk zonation scheme to estimate benefits from mean yield increases and yield variance reductions at the market level as well as at the household level for maize, millet and sorghum producers in the administrative regions of each country. Results suggest that annual ex-ante benefits of $87 million, $6.8 million and $4.8 million can be generated from public sector conventional breeding research on maize, sorghum and millet, respectively. Private sector transgenic drought tolerance research may also generate substantial benefits of $97 million for maize producers and consumers, particularly through the reduction of yield variance arising from drought, and an additional $21 million as profits from intellectual property rights protection. / Ph. D.

Using a cross section data collected in 2005, this study uses both parametric and semi-parametric methods to investigate key factors associated with household vulnerability to drought and economic downturns from exposure to shocks in Niger, conditioned on household and community assets. The findings provides evidence that factors positively affecting ability to overcome drought and economic condition downturns are the educational levels of the heads of households, livestock ownership, access to income generating activity opportunities, and participation to government decision taking. Household size and dependency ratio are found to negatively impact household ability to cope or manage shocks. Descriptive statistics are also used to determine major shocks faced by households after the drought and common coping strategies after the shocks. The results show that the prevailing shock experienced by Niger's population (especially the rural population) in 2004/05 is drought, followed by important loss of agricultural products. The most common coping strategy employed after these shocks is food aid and receiving assistance from other households. / Master of Science

This study proposes a stratified approach of drought severity assessment using multi-layer simulated soil moisture. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) models are calibrated for 50 watersheds in the South-Atlantic Gulf region of the Southeastern US and a high-resolution daily soil moisture dataset is obtained at Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-12) resolution for a period of January 1982 through December 2013. A near real-time hydrologic simulation framework by coupling the calibrated SWAT models with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2) weather data is developed to forecast various water balance components including soil moisture (SM), actual evapotranspiration (ET), potential evapotranspiration ET (PET), and runoff (SURQ) for near-real time drought severity assessment, and drought forecasting for a lead of 9-months. A combination of the surface and total rooting depth soil moisture percentiles proves to be an effective increment over conventional drought assessment approaches in capturing both, transient and long-term drought impacts. The proposed real-time drought monitoring approach shows high accuracy in capturing drought onset and propagation and shows a high degree of similarity with the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), the long-term (PDSI, PHDI, SPI-9 and SPI-12), and the short-term (Palmer Z index, SPI-1 and SPI-6) drought indices. / Master of Science

Agricultural production is the main source of income and major employer in many countries in Africa, including Senegal. Commercial sweet corn (Zea mays L. ssp. saccharata) production in Senegal is increasing in response to global marketing opportunities and offers producers the ability to increase income and diversify the cropping base. Production of optimum sweet corn yield and quality depends on adequate nutrient supply, particularly, nitrogen (N). Current N recommendations are based on recommendations specific to corn for grain. This study aimed to identify tools to estimate sweet corn N status and determine the most appropriate fertilizer dosage for sweet corn. Non-destructive remote sensing tools and ion exchange resin membranes (IEMs) were used to evaluate the effect of fertilizer dose. No differences in ear yield or yield components, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values, biomass, N uptake or leaf N concentration due to fertilizer dose were detected at Ndiol. However, significant relationships existed between NDVI values and yield, biomass, and N uptake at the V9 growth stage. Only yield was affected by fertilizer dose at Sangalkam, and no consistent relationships were found between chlorophyll meter readings and others measured parameters. Treatment differences due to fertilizer dose for available NH4+ at V9 (Ndiol), and NO3- at V5 (Sangalkam) were found, however further research is needed to fully evaluate the usefulness of IEMs to measure available soil N. Based on these studies, sweet corn fertilizer rates should likely be based on 75% of the dose applied to field corn, however more work is needed to confirm this finding. Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum (L) R. Br.) is the most widely grown staple crop in Senegal. Introduction of drought tolerant millet genotypes has helped mitigate the effect of increased water shortage in the region, but little is known about the nutritional composition of these genotypes. Our objective was to compare millet grain nutritional composition among and between putative drought tolerant and drought sensitive pearl millet lines under drought stress and well-watered conditions. One field experiment was conducted in 2014 at the National Center for Agronomic Research (CNRA) of Bambey, Senegal (16°30' and 16° 28' N; 15o44' and 15o42' W). The experiment utilized a split-plot design with four replications. Water regime was the main plot experimental factor while genotype, a total of 20 was the sub-plot. Pearl millet genotypes were divided into three contrasting groups based on drought tolerance for comparisons. Water stress did not affect 100-grain weight, test weight, protein, soluble protein, starch, sugars, amino acids or vitamin B2 content of grains among VPD-groups. Accumulation of these constituents of pearl millet grain appear to be genetically controlled and are probably not affected by late drought stress. However, differences were noted among genotypes as the sensitive VPD-group accumulated greater soluble protein, starch and soluble sugars (except sucrose) than the tolerant and medium VPD-groups. The tolerant VPD-group, however, accumulated greater protein and vitamin B2 content. Arginine, proline and serine content was greater in the sensitive VPD-group, while lysine, aspartic acid, and glutamic acid were greater in the tolerant VPD-group. Glycine, histidine, threonine, alanine, tyrosine, valine, methionine, leucine, isoleucine, and phenylalanine were relatively equal in tolerant and sensitive VPD-groups. Calcium and Na levels were affected by water stress in the sensitive VPD-group, but differently. Calcium content was greatest for the sensitive group under drought stress, while sodium was the lowest. Iron accumulation in sensitive VPD-group increased under water stress. Potassium decreased for all VPD-groups under stress, while across water regime, K levels in the drought-sensitive group were lower. Selection for drought appears to effect many of the nutritional constituents of pearl millet grain, however many of these differences appear to be directly related to parameters known to effect plant water relations. / Master of Science

Drought is perceived differently by different people, but in general, it is conceived as a period of below normal precipitation or moisture deficiency that would affect the social and economic activities of a region. Many numerical indices are used to quantify the effect of drought. The Pahner Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is the most and widely used drought indicator parameter in most recent applications. The PDSI takes into account precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture and depicts prolonged abnormal dryness or wetness. A Markov chain model was developed to analyze the likelihood of occurrences of the seven types of weather spells, defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The spells are classified, using the PDSI computed monthly by the NOAA. The model predicts both short and long term drought status over an entire climatic division. Twelve monthly transition matrices and one annual transition matrix were computed. The matrices show the transition patterns between months and between drought states. The model was applied to the Tidewater area (climatic division l) and the Southwest mountains (climatic division 6) of Virginia. The model predictions reflect the reality and compare very well with the observed data for these two climatic divisions. This model can potentially be used as a tool for water resource planning and design of drought assistance plans by water resource managers. / Master of Science

Millets are C4 annual grasses that are mainly used for food and feed. This thesis describes two studies that evaluated drought tolerance of pearl millet cultivars (Pennisetum glaucum [L.] R. Br) grown for grain. A third study is also included in the thesis that evaluated foxtail millet (Setaria italica [L] Beauv) and pearl millet grown as cover crops and forage during a pasture renovation. The main focus of the thesis involved evaluation of Senegalese pearl millet cultivars for drought tolerance. Drought is one of the most important threats to pearl millet production in Senegal as it limits yield in most parts of the country. Although water stress on pearl millet is common during the growing season, a little is known about how terminal drought affects yield in Senegalese pearl millet cultivars. To address this issue, two field experiments were conducted in 2014 and 2015. The first field study evaluated 20 pearl millet cultivars under water stress and categorized based on their yield response. Whereas the second year field trial used four cultivars from the first field trial in a more detailed study to give recommendations for farmers in Senegal. The experiments were complete randomized block designs. Pearl millet cultivars were grown under irrigation until flowering then the stress treatment was applied by stopping the irrigation in half of the plots. Eleven cultivars showed a statistical indifference to water stress and considered the most drought tolerant. Four cultivars were selected from the 11 for the second year experiment. Of these, cultivar 4 (ICMV IS 89305) and 10 (SOSAT c 88) exhibited higher tolerance to terminal water stress based on evaluation of yield components and drought stress indices. These cultivars could be a good target for further breeding and selection in Senegal. Although the cultivars were more drought tolerant, both had relatively low total biomass. When used in a larger scale, these cultivars could potentially benefit farmers in Senegal and enhance food security. The second part of this thesis addressed use of a forage type millets – specifically foxtail and pearl millet. In the US, these millets are primarily serve as a summer cover crops that can be used for forage. The objective of this experiment was to compare yield and forage quality of foxtail and pearl millet cover crops and their effect on subsequent pasture establishment. A field experiment was conducted in Virginia in 2014 to address this objective. Pearl millet and foxtail millet were randomly planted in 12 plots each and harvested in late summer. Plots were then converted to tall fescue (Schedonorus phoenix (Scop.) Holub) pasture. Foxtail millet had a significantly higher soil cover than pearl millet but the two species did not differ in terms of total biomass, forage quality, or their effect on tall fescue pasture establishment. / Master of Science

Urban soils are typically degraded due to land disturbance. The poor quality physical and chemical properties of the soil can benefit from application of organic amendments. Local sources of such amendments are biosolids, which are treated domestic wastewater sludges. The objective of this experiment was to compare effects of various high quality biosolids-based soil amendments with synthetic fertilizer on the growth and quality of tall fescue (Schedonorus arundinaceus) under two different soil moisture regimes. The research site was a disturbed soil at the Virginia Tech Turfgrass Research Center in Blacksburg, Virginia. The experimental design was a split plot with irrigation regime as the main factor and soil amendments as the split factor. All treatments were arranged in four randomized complete blocks. The study was established in late summer 2013. Soil amendment treatments, applied prior to seeding in September 2013, were: 1) inorganic N, P, K applied according to soil test laboratory recommendations; 2) anaerobically digested, dewatered biosolids to supply agronomic N rate; 3) anaerobically digested, dewatered biosolids blended with sand and sawdust to supply agronomic N rate; 4) anaerobically digested, dewatered biosolids blended with sand and sawdust to supply agronomic P rate; and 5) composted biosolids to supply agronomic N rate. The agronomic N rate for the turfgrass was 224 kg of estimated plant available nitrogen (PAN) ha-1. Inorganic fertilizer was applied to supply annual P and K requirements prior to seeding in late summer, and the N was split into three application timings (September 2013, April 2014, and June 2014). Supplemental fertilizer N to achieve full agronomic N rate was applied to the treatment plots that received the agronomic P rate of blended biosolids-sand-sawdust. The area was seeded on September 13, 2013 with a tall fescue blend at a rate of 488 kg ha-1. Following full tall fescue establishment, in June 2014, two irrigation regimes, consisting of 0% and 80% evapotranspiration replacement every three days, were initiated. The study had three phases denoted as the pre-drought, drought, and recovery phases which started in April and concluded in August of 2014. Turfgrass color and quality, volumetric soil moisture percentage to a 5 cm depth, normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI), clipping yield, and turfgrass N uptake were measured bi-weekly throughout the growing season. During the first May through July 2014 irrigation season, results were that the fertilizer control consistently provided improved responses relative to the biosolids amended treatments. Clipping yield, quality, and NDVI were all significantly greater in the inorganic fertilizer treatment, but volumetric soil moisture percentages were slightly greater in the biosolids treatments. Turfgrass responses appeared to have been associated with plant available nitrogen, which was lower in the biosolids treatments than in the fertilizer treatment. Calculated PAN for the biosolids products was too low to achieve ideal turfgrass growth and quality. Improving the estimated PAN and/or splitting the organic amendment application times should improve the growth and quality of the turfgrass. / Master of Science