This is a multi-essay dissertation in the area of dynamic models of the insurance markets. I study issues in insurance markets by examining individual behavior and industry performance in dynamic settings. My first essay studies household life insurance demand and saving decisions by applying a heterogeneous-agent life cycle model with wage shocks and mortality shocks. This essay proposes the most important determinants of household life insurance demand, and shows the joint decision of life insurance purchase between couples. My second essay focuses on the property-liability insurance market, and aims to study the impact of one catastrophe event on an insurer’s underwritings and capital raising strategy. The two-period cash flow model is built to also explore what kind of insurers can benefit from catastrophic risk underwritings. My third essay extends the second essay by incorporating a dynamic cash flow model with a series of loss shocks. I find the dynamic interaction between the insurer’s balance sheet and its capital rationing resulting from loss shocks. The model generates a non-cyclical behavior of output changes in the insurance market, and this suggests the current asymmetric, unpredictable and random underwriting cycles are temporary responses to loss shocks.

The subject of this experimental investigation is to measure the dynamic stability derivatives in roll plane for an oscillating combat aircraft model by using forced oscillation technique. In forced oscillation technique the model is forced to oscillate around the center of gravity according to a harmonic motion of small amplitude and low frequency. The aerodynamic reactions are measured by an internal balance placed inside the model. The thesis presents a brief description of the test rig and the measurement system. The theory of dynamic stability derivatives and forced oscillation technique are also explained. The data is collected and analyzed by using a data acquisition system written with under the Labview programming language. Systematic analysis of the static and dynamic tests results and effect of various parameters (angle of attack, sideslip angle, oscillation frequency and amplitude, wind velocity) on these results are presented. Comparison of the present results with previous results obtained in other test facilities is also given. Design and manufacture process of a new angle of attack mechanism is also given in this thesis.

Bitumen extraction in the Athabasca oil sands in Alberta releases metals to the region. In this study, I performed an uptake-elimination experiment with wood frog tadpoles (Lithobates sylvaticus) to determine the bioaccumulation potential of metals from exposure to MacKay River sediment, an area affected by oil sands contamination, and to uncontaminated reference sediment. Wood frog tadpoles, Gosner stages 28-32, were exposed to two sediments: (1) MacKay River sediment that is enriched in petrogenic hydrocarbons from natural and anthropogenic sources; and (2) an uncontaminated reference sediment. Tadpole exposures to sediments lasted 4 days, followed by a depuration phase for an additional 4 days where tadpoles were allowed to eliminate excess metals from their bodies. The metal concentrations at various time points during the uptake and elimination phases were determined in order to define toxicokinetic parameters, such as uptake and elimination first order rate constants, accumulation by ingestion, and assimilation efficiencies for specific metals. It was determined that tadpoles exposed to the MacKay sediment had higher concentrations of Al, Co, Cu, Cr, Mg, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn throughout the uptake phase of the study compared to tadpoles exposed to reference sediment. We also observed little to no decrease in concentrations of Al, Co, Cu, Cr, Mg, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn throughout the elimination phase of the study. In addition, biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAF) revealed that Cu, Zn, Cr, and V had among the highest bioaccumulation potential in our trials. The experiment was subsequently repeated by preventing direct contact of the tadpoles to sediment with a screen, exposing tadpoles only to metals in water. By comparing tadpole exposures to metals from ‘aqueous’ and ‘aqueous +sediment’ in separate trials, and by tracking sediment ingestion rates, I am able to show that sediment ingestion constitutes the primary source of metal bioaccumulation by tadpoles. Not only were metal concentrations higher in tadpoles that were ingesting sediment, but they also had greater metal uptake rates compared to tadpoles that were only exposed to contaminated water. It was also determined that assimilation efficiencies were higher in tadpoles exposed to reference sediment compared to ones exposed to MacKay River sediment. Using toxicokinetic parameters defined by the uptake-elimination experiment, I developed a computational model using STELLATM system dynamics software to accurately estimate first order uptake and depuration rate constants for metals in exposed aquatic animals. The model estimated metal uptake and depuration kinetics with a mean relative error of 2.25 ± 0.93 % (±SE, n=9) for the uptake study and 2.53 ± 2.61 % (±SE, n=9) for the depuration study. With increased oil-sands production anticipated, we recommend continued monitoring of contaminants from oil-sands for the purpose of understanding the potential risks they may have on northern Alberta’s ecosystems.

Glucocorticoids (GCs) have an important role in anti-inflammation, apoptosis and immunomodulatory activity. GCs exert their effect by binding to their receptor, glucocorticoid receptor (GR), which subsequently triggers receptor dimerisation, nuclear translocation and eventually causes impact on transcriptional activity. Such regulatory mechanism is complex as it is not only controlled at the transcription level, but also at the post translational level with other contributing factors such as protein stability and cofactor recruitment. Glucocorticoids are commonly used as part of the chemotherapeutical protocols for lymphoid malignancies and have been successfully implicated in treating childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Nevertheless, resistance and side effects such as muscle atrophy and osteoporosis still occur frequently.With the advance in high-throughput technology, vast amount of data on various scales, including genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics make the molecular study of cancer more complicated. The rise of systems biology helps the scientist to address this problem with the use of computation. Although the concept and the approach may vary depending on the research fields, the ultimate goal remains the same which is to create a comprehensive understanding of biological processes and to forecast outcome.The goal of this body of work is to better understand glucocorticoid induced apoptosis in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia by adopting a systems biology approach. As the Bcl-2 family, particularly Bim is known to be a key determinant of GC-induced apoptosis, we investigated the molecular mechanism of GC induction of Bim. By adopting ordinary differential equation modelling approach, we were able to make prediction and investigate details of Bim regulation by GCs. Further to this, we carried out an integrated microarray analysis in various ALL to study GC resistance and identified crucial candidate gene c-Jun as a regulator of Bim and Erg as a determinant for GC resistance. These results allowed us to refine our models and enabled more answers to be addressed. In conclusion, our findings not only suggest potential regulatory mechanisms for determining GC sensitivity, they also aid us to find potential biomarkers for determining GC resistance. More importantly, this study represents a successful example for utilising systems biology to study the genetic complexity in cancer.

When developing an aircraft, one of several important aspects is to predict and properly design the dynamic behaviour of the aircraft. This holds for manned aircraft as well as for UAVs. The optimal dynamic behaviour for an aircraft depends on the mission or purpose: for a certain use an aircraft should be agile, other may require a more stable one. In aeronautics, the properties that describe the aircraft ecacy with respect to some task are known as ying qualities, and our goal is to study their dependence on some design parameters. As a test model we use an existing UAV. After deriving its 6-DOF dynamic model and assessing its baseline characteristics, we perform parametric studies. The strategy followed is divided in two steps: the rst consists on analyzing ying qualities sensitivity to changes in model parameters. The second step studies how specific design changes affect model parameters. Because the rst step only depends on the dynamic model form, we verify, by testing two other dierent aircrafts, that conclusions drawn from this step are valid to other congurations. Finally we show how results from parametric studies can be used to improve the UAV ying qualities regarding a certain mission, through the introduction of slight modications on baseline design.

Wrist and forearm motion is governed both by its dynamics and the control strategies employed by the neuromuscular system to execute goal oriented movement. Two experiments were conducted to increase our understanding of wrist and forearm motion. The first experiment involved 10 healthy subjects executing planned movements to targets involving all three degrees of freedom (DOF) of the wrist and forearm, namely wrist flexion-extension (FE), wrist radial-ulnar deviation, and forearm pronation-supination (PS). A model of wrist and forearm dynamics was developed, and the recorded movements were fed into the model to analyze the movement torques. This resulted in the following key findings: 1) The main impedance torques affecting wrist and forearm movements are stiffness and gravity, with damping and inertial effects contributing roughly 10% of the total torque. 2) There is significant coupling between all degrees of freedom (DOF) of the wrist and forearm, with stiffness effects being the most coupled and inertial effects being the least coupled. 3) Neglecting these interaction torques results in significant error in the prediction of the torque required for wrist and forearm movements, suggesting that the neuromuscular system must account for coupling in movement planning. A second experiment was conducted in which 10 different healthy subjects pointed to targets arranged on a plane in front of the subjects. This pointing task required two DOF, but subjects were allowed to use all three DOF of the wrist and forearm. While subjects could have completed the task with FE and RUD alone, it was found that subjects recruited PS as well. Hypotheses regarding why subjects would recruit PS even though it was not necessary included the minimization of a number of cost functions (work, effort, potential energy, path length) as well as mechanical interaction between the DOF of the wrist and forearm. It was found that the pattern of PS recruitment predicted from the mechanical interaction hypothesis most closely resembled the observed pattern. According to this hypothesis, the neuromuscular system uses a simplified 2 DOF model of the joints most critical to the task (FE and RUD) to plan the task, while leaving the third DOF (PS) uncontrolled. The resulting interaction torques create the observed pattern of PS movement.

A six degree-of-freedom model for a tailless supersonic aircraft (TSA) concept was developed using MATLAB and Simulink. Aerodynamic data was provided through the computational fluid dynamics analysis of Techsburg, Inc. A three degree-of-freedom model of the configuration's longitudinal dynamics was completed first. Elevator control power was derived from the dynamic response requirements for pitch chosen by Techsburg. The propulsion model utilized General Electric F-414-400-like turbofan engines because an engine deck was readily available. Work on the six degree-of-freedom dynamic model began with determining the necessary rolling and yawing moment coefficients necessary to meet the rest of the chosen dynamic response requirements. These coefficients were then used to find the corresponding all-moving tip deflections. The CFD data showed that even at small all-moving tip deflections the rolling moment coefficient produced was much greater than the amount of yawing moment coefficient produced. This result showed that an additional roll effector was needed to counteract excess rolling moment at any given all-moving tip deflection and trim the aircraft. An angle of attack and pitch rate feedback controller was used to improve the longitudinal dynamics of the aircraft. Because this configuration lacked a vertical tail, a lateral-directional stability augmentation system was vital to its success. The lateral-directional dynamics were improved to Level 1 flying qualities through use of a modified roll/yaw damper. The modified controller fed yaw rate back to both the all-moving tips and roll effector. The six degree-of-freedom model was augmented with actuator dynamics for the elevator, roll effector, and all-moving tips. The actuators were modeled as first order lags. The all-moving tip actuator time constant was varied to determine the effect of actuator bandwidth on the lateral-directional flying qualities. After the actuator dynamics were successfully implemented, the six degree-of-freedom model was trimmed for both standard cruise and engine-out situations. The eccentuator concept from the DARPA Smart Wing program was selected as a possible conceptual design for the all-moving tip actuation system. The success of the TSA six degree-of-freedom dynamic model proved that morphing all-moving tips were capable of serving as effective control surfaces for a supersonic tailless aircraft. / Master of Science

Yes / Multistage Flash Desalination (MSF) is currently facing an enormous challenge in cutting of the cost: within the last few years, the MSF experienced a gradual decline in investment compared to other techniques of desalting water and thus, a significant improvement is required to remain attractive for capital investors. Improved process control is a cost effective approach to energy conservation and increased process profitability. In this work, a dynamic model is presented using gPROMS model builder to optimize and control MSF process. The Proportional Integral Derivative Controller (PID) and Generic Model Control (GMC) are used successfully to control the Top Brine Temperature (TBT) and the Brine Level (BL) in the last stage at different times of the year. The objectives of this study are: firstly, to obtain optimum TBT and BL profiles for four different seasons throughout the year by minimizing the Total Seasonal Operating Cost (TSOC); secondly, to track the optimum TBT and BL profiles using PID and GMC controllers with and without the presence of constraints; thirdly, to examine how both types of controllers handle the disturbances which occur in the plant. The results are promising and show that GMC controller provides better performance over conventional PID controller to handle a nonlinear system.

<p> In this paper, empirical tests of a dynamic urban growth model are discussed. It is assumed that population change in any urban region is a function of the population size of the urban centres in the system and of the distances between them. A set of linear equations is simultaneously estimated by a least squares procedure. The parameters of the model; the equilibrium population of each urban region, the rate of natural increase, and the propensity to migrate between urban regions, are calculated from the regression coefficients. By estimating a series of equations at different times, a set of parameter estimates are obtained. The parameter estimates fluctuate erratically. Recommendations for further research include the redefinition of the model, and of the urban system. </p> / Thesis / Master of Arts (MA)

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