by Poon Yeuk Wan, Tsang Fei. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 54-55). / Acknowledgements --- p.i / Abstract --- p.iii / Table of Contents --- p.iv / List of Tables --- p.vi / List of Appendix --- p.vii / Chapter Chapter1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Project Objective --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Project Structure --- p.2 / Chapter 1.3 --- Data --- p.3 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- Emerging Markets´ؤ-An Overview --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- Latin America --- p.5 / Argentina --- p.5 / Brazil --- p.7 / Chile --- p.7 / Colombia --- p.8 / Mexico --- p.8 / Peru --- p.9 / Venezuela --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2 --- Eastern Europe --- p.10 / Czech Republic --- p.10 / Poland --- p.10 / Slovakia --- p.11 / Hungary --- p.11 / Russia --- p.11 / Chapter 2.3 --- Middle East --- p.12 / Israel --- p.12 / Jordan --- p.12 / Chapter 2.4 --- Implication For Further Analysis --- p.13 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- Analysis and Findings I: Descriptive Statistics Analysis --- p.14 / Chapter 3.1 --- Objective of Descriptive Statistic Analysis --- p.14 / Chapter 3.2 --- Findings --- p.16 / Eastern Europe --- p.16 / Latin America --- p.16 / Middle East --- p.17 / Chapter 3.3 --- Conclusion --- p.18 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- Analysis and Findings II: Day-of-the- Week (Monday effect) Test --- p.19 / Chapter 4.1 --- Objective --- p.19 / Chapter 4.2 --- Literature Review --- p.19 / Chapter 4.3 --- Methodology --- p.21 / Chapter 4.4 --- Data --- p.23 / Chapter 4.5 --- Analysis --- p.24 / Chapter 4.6 --- Empirical findings --- p.25 / Chapter I. --- The equality of return test --- p.25 / Eastern Europe --- p.26 / Latin America --- p.26 / Middle East --- p.26 / Overall --- p.27 / Local currency versus US currency --- p.27 / Chapter II. --- Comparison of Monday return with returns of other days within the week --- p.27 / Chapter l. --- Without exchange rate effect --- p.28 / Chapter 4.7 --- Monday effect一-an overview --- p.31 / Comparison by region --- p.31 / Eastern Europe --- p.31 / Latin America --- p.31 / Middle East --- p.32 / The effect of exchange rate --- p.32 / Chapter Chapter 5 --- Analysis And Findings III: Correlation Analysis --- p.33 / Chapter 5.1 --- Literature Review --- p.33 / Chapter 5.2 --- Objective --- p.35 / Chapter 5.3 --- Methodology --- p.35 / Chapter 5.4 --- Findings --- p.38 / Chapter I --- Correlations Within Regions --- p.38 / Eastern Europe --- p.33 / Latin America --- p.40 / Middle East --- p.42 / Chapter II. --- Correlation Among Regions --- p.43 / Eastern Europe vs. Latin America --- p.43 / Latin America vs. Middle East --- p.44 / Eastern Europe vs. Middle East --- p.45 / Chapter III. --- Correlations with the United States --- p.46 / US vs. Eastern Europe --- p.46 / US vs. Latin America --- p.46 / US vs. Middle East --- p.47 / Chapter 5.5 --- Conclusion --- p.43 / Chapter Chapter 6 --- Conclusions and Implications --- p.49 / Implications on market integration --- p.52 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.54 / APPENDIX --- p.56

本文主要研究實際匯率出口彈性對中國貧富懸殊的影響。我們使用了二十八個省份從1995年至2008年的數據。結果顯示實際匯率出口彈性愈高的省份其城鄉收入差距就會愈廣。另外，我們使用了各省的加工出口比例作為實際匯率出口彈性的工具變量。 / 本文主要的貢獻在於分別地考慮出口數量和出口的商品種類來研究開放度對貧富懸殊的關係。在分開了出口數量和出口商品的種類對貧富懸殊的影響後，我們發現數據中呈現的中國對外開放度和貧富懸殊的正向關係，是基於出口商品的種類改變，而非如以前的文獻所說，是基於出口量的增長。因此，要決定一個省份的城鄉收入差距，該省份生產甚麼比其生產數量更重要。 / This paper investigates the effect of export elasticity to real exchange rate and on urban-rural income disparity in China. We use annual data from 28 provinces from 1995 to 2008. The main finding is that provinces producing more elastic exported goods would have a higher urban-rural income inequality. We also construct the processing export ratio as an instrumental variable for the elasticity terms. / One main contribution of this paper is to consider separately the effect of export value and the composition of exports when we examine the relationship between openness and income inequality. After separating the effect of export value and the composition of exports, we find that the positive relationship between openness and income inequality mentioned in previous literature is caused by a change in export composition, rather than in export value. Hence, what the provinces produce matters much more than how much they produce when we determine urban-rural income inequality. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Chan, Ying Tung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 32-34). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / ABSTRACT --- p.II / 摘要 --- p.III / ACKNOWLEDGMENTS --- p.IV / Chapter 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- OPENNESS AND INEQUALITY --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- COMPOSITION OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.2 / Chapter 2 --- LITERATURE REVIEWS --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- LITERATURE ON THE CAUSE OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- LITERATURE ON THE EFFECT OF OPENNESS ON INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.6 / Chapter 2.3 --- LITERATURE ON THE COMPOSITION OF EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA --- p.9 / Chapter 3 --- DATA --- p.11 / Chapter 4 --- REGRESSION MODEL --- p.12 / Chapter 4.1 --- REGRESSION RESULT (WITHOUT THE ELASTICITY TERM) --- p.15 / Chapter 4.2 --- ROLLING REGRESSION FOR ESTIMATING THE ELASTICITY TERMS --- p.17 / Chapter 4.3 --- REGRESSION RESULT OF REGRESSION (1) --- p.19 / Chapter 4.4 --- INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE FOR THE ELASTICITY TERM --- p.20 / Chapter 4.5 --- REGRESSION RESULT AFTER USING TWO-STAGE LEAST SQUARE (2SLS) --- p.23 / Chapter 5 --- DISCUSSION --- p.24 / Chapter 6 --- CONCLUSION --- p.29 / REFERENCES --- p.32

This thesis develops a new structure that explicitly combines two CGE models, a national and a regional, in an integrated structure that gives the thesis model the name IRES, in short for the Integrated Regional Equation System. The typical features of the integrated structure are the adding-up conditions and the two-way linkages between the national and the regional modules facilitated by the interface shifters. The adding-up conditions ensure the two modules produce consistent results and updated databases. The inclusion of the interface shifters on the one hand plays a role in ensuring compatibility of results of the two modules, i.e. no distortion occurs because technical or taste changes are transferred across modules. On the other hand, the interface shifters assist the operation of IRES in different modes: the model can be used as a top-down model, a bottom-up model or an integrated model where national and regional shocks can be introduced at the same time. Hence, IRES has more flexibility in its application than a regional model or a national model alone, as IRES can make use of availability of data at any levels in the economy. IRES has a new labour market in which regional migration is no longer the only factor that settles the labour market as in the original setting of the MMRF model. Regional unemployment and regional participation rates are modelled to response to changes in regional employment growth using elasticities estimated econometrically in this thesis. IRES implements historical patterns of regional migration so that results of regional migration are consistent with observed patterns. Altogether, regional migration, regional unemployment and participation rates determine the equilibrium of the labour market. IRES adopts new approaches to modelling margin demands and indirect taxes. These new approaches are very effective in reducing the size of IRES but they do not compromise the use of the model. These approaches are readily applicable to any other regional CGE models.

Scale invariance, collective behaviours and structural reorganization are crucial for portfolio management (portfolio composition, hedging, alternative definition of risk, etc.). This lack of any characteristic scale and such elaborated behaviours find their origin in the theory of complex systems. There are several mechanisms which generate scale invariance but maximum entropy models are able to explain both scale invariance and collective behaviours.<p>The study of the structure and collective modes of financial markets attracts more and more attention. It has been shown that some agent based models are able to reproduce some stylized facts. Despite their partial success, there is still the problem of rules design. In this work, we used a statistical inverse approach to model the structure and co-movements in financial markets. Inverse models restrict the number of assumptions. We found that a pairwise maximum entropy model is consistent with the data and is able to describe the complex structure of financial systems. We considered the existence of a critical state which is linked to how the market processes information, how it responds to exogenous inputs and how its structure changes. The considered data sets did not reveal a persistent critical state but rather oscillations between order and disorder.<p>In this framework, we also showed that the collective modes are mostly dominated by pairwise co-movements and that univariate models are not good candidates to model crashes. The analysis also suggests a genuine adaptive process since both the maximum variance of the log-likelihood and the accuracy of the predictive scheme vary through time. This approach may provide some clue to crash precursors and may provide highlights on how a shock spreads in a financial network and if it will lead to a crash. The natural continuation of the present work could be the study of such a mechanism. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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This study examines the importance of public research and development (R&D) expenditures and innovations (prices) to U S agricultural productivity employing panel vector error correction econometric technique Specifically, time-series and panel unit root tests, panel cointegration procedures, panel causality tests, and vector error correction model are used in the analysis. Empirical application to U S state-level data for 1960-2004 suggests positive and statistically significant influence of both supply-side drivers, in the form of public R&D expenditures, and demand-side drivers, in the form of innovations (prices), on total factor productivity growth.

This study argues that governments with sustained GDP growth, open markets, low country risk, high levels and low standard deviation of government performance, and few or no occurrences of war, will see larger levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) over time. Scholarship on the determinants of FDI variously argues the influence of GDP growth, the openness of a country's economy, a government's level of political capacity, the level of country risk, and the negative effects of inter-, intra- and extrastate conflict. These studies on the various effects on FDI, while providing insightful and substantial statistical results, fail to capture the simultaneous effects of macroeconomic, government performance, country risk, and war variables. The present study attempts to resolve this gap in the literature on FDI by proposing a multi-dimensional model of the combined effects of un-weighted macroeconomic, political, country risk, and war variables on FDI flows over time. The empirical results confirm the expected multi-dimensional nature of FDI flows over time and provide insight into the macroeconomic and political effects on regional and country-level yearly flows of FDI, as well as yielding some unexpected and counter-intuitive results of the role war plays on FDI flows over time.

In the first chapter of my thesis, titled “Interventions in Credit Markets and Effects on Economic Activity: Evidence from Brazil,” I investigate the impact of the Brazilian government policy implemented in March 2012, which aimed at increasing credit supply through public banks. Using bank branch level data, I find that the policy successfully increased overall credit supply, as increased lending of public banks did not significantly offset private lending. On the other hand, there is no evidence of significant client-switching between private and public banks. However, the effects of the policy on economic activity were limited and even negligible. I conduct a series of robustness checks to further explore this puzzling result. I find evidence suggesting that increased lending led to significant increases in deposits, indicating that borrowers leveraged easily accessible credit to take loans and save funds for future use. In the second chapter, titled “Television Introduction and Agricultural Production,” I investigate how improved information affected agricultural activity in the U.S. Specifically, I argue that the introduction of television brings more comprehensible weather forecast information to farmers, improving their decision making process. Using data about television entry and county level farming production in a difference-in-differences methodology, I estimate economically significant effect of television introduction on crop yields.

This dissertation is motivated by the study of economic development and inequality within and across nations. Spanning topics in labor and public economics, this collection of papers speaks to two overarching themes: (i) how the distribution of power affects economic outcomes, and (ii) how governments can mobilize resources and spend them effectively. In Chapter 1, I study how the allocation of ownership and control rights within firms affect responses to economic shocks. To shed light on this issue, I study the heterogeneous effects of a pro-competitive reform on cooperative manufacturing firms and their non-cooperative counterparts in India. The reform removed firm-size restrictions on the production of “reserved” items, increasing competition for incumbents in “de-reserved” product markets. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I find that supplier cooperatives (SCs), owned and controlled by producer-members who supply material inputs, are resilient to the shock in terms of total revenue and move away from the production of de-reserved items. SCs increase their share of income spent on materials relative to similarly sized non-cooperatives in the same industry and location, with some evidence of downward adjustments in labor spending. These cooperatives are able to withstand competitive pressure from entrants while broadly catering to the interests of their membership. On the other hand, worker cooperatives (WCs), owned and controlled by worker-members employed at the firm, face a sharp decline in revenue due to de-reservation, unlike their non-cooperative counterparts. A potential channel behind these results is that WCs are less likely to respond by picking up items that are not directly affected by the reform. Spending on labor does not fall as much as revenue for WCs, which is in line with the immediate interests of membership, but adjustments to labor inputs vary sigificantly across employment categories. In the following chapter, my co-author, Utkarsh Kumar, and I study the equilibrium effects of subsidizing public services in the presence of vertically differentiated public and private suppliers. We evaluate one of India’s largest welfare schemes, Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), which subsidized childbirth at public health institutions. JSY did not improve health outcomes despite a substantial increase in take-up of institutional care. We document three equilibrium responses that explain this policy failure. First, JSY led to a mismatch in patient risk across health facilities. High-risk mothers sorted out of the highest-quality care at private facilities and into lower-quality public facilities. Second, in response to congestion and deterioration of care at public hospitals, only mothers with high socio-economic status sorted out of congested public facilities into more expensive private facilities. Third, private hospitals increased prices without improvements in healthcare quality in a specific subset of states, further crowding out high-risk and poor mothers. These findings point to the need for complementary public policies in addition to JSY. In Chapter 3, I, along with my co-authors, Alexander Klemm and Li Liu, explore the increasingly prominent position of services in international trade and their potential to facilitate tax-driven reporting and reallocation of economic activity. Given their potential in countering this form of base erosion, withholding taxes (WHTs) on payments for services have featured extensively in ongoing reforms of the international tax architecture. The rationale behind WHTs is to preserve some taxation rights in the source country given their straightforward application, which is particularly important for low-income countries in the absence of more effective rules. We build a simple model of reporting decisions when firms have economic activities in one country and affiliates in others. We then test the predictions of this model using newly compiled data on treaty and non-treaty rates for 120+ countries over 2009-2021. Our findings indicate that while there is no significant relationship between WHTs and services trade in general, these taxes do have a strong negative impact on services imports from known low-tax jurisdictions, when base erosion is a particular concern.

This dissertation is part of a growing body of research studying the implications of micro heterogeneity - differences between different types of households and workers - for macro economic policy. By incorporating heterogeneity into monetary and fiscal policy frameworks, I am able to study both the distributional consequences of policy and uncover ways in which differences between households change policy transmission mechanisms. In the first chapter, I show that growing differences across the income distribution in workers' substitutability with capital alters the strength of a key monetary policy transmission mechanism. In the second chapter, I highlight and measure a new trade-off between redistribution policies and long-run investment stemming from differences in households' propensity to save out of permanent income. In the third chapter, joint with Jennifer La'O, we show that when the degree of labor income inequality changes over the business cycle, and fiscal policy is unable to respond to these changes, optimal monetary policy should take this inequality into account. Chapter 1 examines how heterogeneity in worker substitutability with capital affects the labor income channel of monetary policy. Empirically, I show that workers performing routine tasks see smaller labor income gains than other workers following a monetary expansion and have higher marginal propensities to consume (MPC). I show that this relationship dampens the role that the labor market plays in monetary policy transmission. I embed capital-task complementarity in a medium-scale HANK model calibrated to match the respective capital-labor elasticities and labor shares of routine and non-routine workers. This worker heterogeneity reduces the size of the labor income channel 25 percent. Chapter 2 studies the trade-offs associated with income redistribution in an overlapping generations model in which savings rates increase with permanent income. By transferring resources from high savers to low savers, redistribution lowers aggregate savings, and depresses investment. I derive sufficient conditions under which this savings behavior generates a welfare trade-off between permanent income redistribution and capital accumulation in the short and long run. I quantify the size of this trade-off in two ways. First, I derive a sufficient statistic formula for the impact of this channel on welfare, and estimate the formula using U.S. household panel data. When redistribution is done with a labor income tax, the welfare costs associated with my channel are around 1/3 the size of those associated with labor supply distortions. Second, I solve a quantitative overlapping generations model with un-insurable idiosyncratic earnings risk in which savings rates increase with permanent income calibrated to the U.S. in 2019. In this setting, I find that around 17 percent of the trade-off between labor income redistribution and average consumption can be attributed to my channel. In Chapter 3, joint with Jennifer La'O, we study optimalmonetary policy in a dynamic, general equilibrium economy with heterogeneous agents. All heterogeneity is ex-ante: workers differ in type-specific, state-contingent labor productivity, yet markets are complete. The fiscal authority has access to a uniform, state-contingent lump-sum tax (or transfer), but linear taxes are restricted to be non-state contingent. We derive sufficient conditions under which implementing flexible-price allocations is optimal. We show that such allocations are not optimal when the relative labor income distribution varies with the business cycle; in such cases, optimal monetary policy implements a state-contingent mark-up that co-moves positively with a sufficient statistic for labor income inequality.