published_or_final_version / Asian Studies / Master / Master of Philosophy

經歷十三年風雨，香港樓價再創歷史新高。有云：「禍兮福所倚」，業主得益於財富增長的同時，亦擔心高速增長埋下泡沫爆破的伏線。因樓價高企，年青人置業困難，社會不滿亦日漸升溫。 / 在國際貨幣基金組織出言警告後，香港金融管理局連同財政司相繼推出措施如額外印花稅，以及收緊不同物業種類的按揭上限，希望保持樓市健康及穩定發展。一石激起千重浪，政策推出後輿論不絶，但至今仍未有人以嚴謹的邏輯推論分析新政策的影響。本文以Stein (1995)的模型作藍本，稍作修改，以分析新政對樓價的影響。 / 按照文中模型計算，於當前經濟環境下，新措施確能維持樓市健康及穩定發展。額外印花稅能壓抑樓價時，收緊不同物業種類的按揭上限能保持樓價平穩。理論模型同時指出，兩樣政策都不是萬能丹，政府於調控樓市時應先評估當前經濟基礎，否則有機會事與願違。 / House price in Hong Kong is reaching its historical high. People start to worry a sudden drop of house price as what they had experienced in year 1997. Social disputes emerged and the Hong Kong government has taken several measures in reaction. Policies such as the Multi-down payment constraint by the HKMA and special stamp duty by the Financial Secretary are implemented in response to the soaring house price. The Media and the general public are keen to explore the effects and the consequences of the policies. However, little effort has been done to study the impact of the enacted policy in a systematic way. / This thesis augmented the model developed by Stein (1995) to examine the housing price behavior of Hong Kong. Simulation results justified the government’s policies. SSD helps to lower the house price while multi-down payment policy helps to stabilize the house price. However, for the policies to be effective, the government needs to spend a lot of efforts to examine the underlying economic fundamentals to avoid unintended results. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Wong, Long Ho. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 53-54). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / 擇要 --- p.ii / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2. --- Hong Kong’s Post-Tsunami Economic Background --- p.4 / Chapter 3. --- Characteristics of the Hong Kong Residential Property Market --- p.7 / Chapter 3.1. --- Price and Transactions --- p.8 / Chapter 3.2. --- Market Structure --- p.10 / Chapter 3.3. --- Mortgage Financing --- p.11 / Chapter 4. --- Policies Launched --- p.11 / Chapter 4.1. --- Increasing supply --- p.12 / Chapter 4.2. --- Combating speculation --- p.12 / Chapter 4.3. --- Preventing excessive expansion in mortgage lending --- p.13 / Chapter 4.1. --- To enhance the transparency in the market --- p.13 / Chapter 5. --- Literature Review --- p.14 / Chapter 6. --- Choice of Model --- p.17 / Chapter 7. --- The Stein’s Benchmark Case --- p.19 / Chapter 7.1. --- General Form --- p.20 / Chapter 7.2. --- The Log Linear Form Utility --- p.22 / Chapter 8. --- The SSD Case --- p.23 / Chapter 8.1. --- General Form --- p.23 / Chapter 9. --- The Multi-Down Payment Case --- p.25 / Chapter 9.1. --- General Form --- p.25 / Chapter 9.2. --- The Stone-Geary Form log Utility --- p.29 / Chapter 9.3. --- The CES Utility --- p.29 / Chapter 10. --- Simulation and Results --- p.30 / Chapter 10.1. --- Choosing the parameter --- p.30 / Chapter 10.2. --- Results using Log Linear Utility --- p.32 / Chapter 10.2.1. --- Changing the SSD --- p.32 / Chapter 10.2.1. --- Changing the down payment requirement γ --- p.33 / Chapter 10.2.3. --- Changing the threshold in multi-down payment case --- p.35 / Chapter 10.2.4. --- Changing ý --- p.36 / Chapter 10.2.1. --- Changing the fundamental --- p.37 / Chapter 10.3. --- Results using Stone-Geary form Utility --- p.38 / Chapter 10.3.1. --- Changing the degree of necessity --- p.38 / Chapter 10.3.2. --- Changing SSD --- p.39 / Chapter 10.3.3. --- Changing the down payment portion γ --- p.39 / Chapter 10.3.4. --- Changing the down payment portion ý --- p.40 / Chapter 10.3.5. --- Changing the fundamental --- p.41 / Chapter 10.4. --- Results using CES form Utility --- p.41 / Chapter 10.4.1. --- Changing the elasticity of substitution by --- p.42 / Chapter 10.4.2. --- Changing SSD --- p.42 / Chapter 10.4.3. --- Changing the down payment portion --- p.43 / Chapter 10.4.4. --- Changing the down payment portion --- p.44 / Chapter 10.4.5. --- Changing the fundamental --- p.45 / Chapter 10.5. --- Summary of the results and policy implications --- p.45 / Chapter 11. --- Conclusion --- p.48 / Chapter 12. --- Tables and Charts --- p.49 / Chapter 13. --- References --- p.53 / Chapter 14. --- Appendix --- p.54

The first essay uses Chinese Urban Household Survey (CUHS) data from 1988 to 2003 to conduct a cohort analysis of household income, household consumption, and household saving rate, and then uses synthetic panel data to explore the determinants of household saving rate. The cohort analysis not only offers stylized patterns of age profiles on household income, household consumption, and household saving rate but also their profiles of cohort effect and age effect by decomposition work. The cohort analysis likewise tests the relation between cohort effect and productivity growth. Overall, the empirical results present a different pattern compared with other studies and also contradict with the general predictions of the standard model in the consumption theory. In investigating the determinants of household saving rate, this essay examines the roles of household income, economic growth rate, inflation rate, and demographic variables, especially from the perspective of income inequality and systematic difference among cohorts. / The second essay examines the existence of a precautionary saving motive due to labor income uncertainty, using CUHS data from 2002 to 2003. Methodologically, this essay adopts a novel method to construct the proxy for labor income uncertainty, by the ratio of infra-group dispersion conditional on the individuals' labor income determinants to labor income. The empirical results present robust evidence that labor income uncertainty negatively affects household consumption, and there exists obviously different responses to labor income uncertainty from three perspectives: between old households and young households, among different households whose household heads are in different occupations, and between households whose household heads work in the State-owned Units and their counterparts. / The third essay then attempts to explore the determinants of housing wealth and housing price by a hedonic pricing model and evaluate the housing wealth effect on household consumption behavior. For the determinants of housing wealth and housing price, this essay demonstrates that incomplete property rights depress the value of housing asset by both a theoretical model and the empirical results. Regarding housing wealth's effect on household consumption behavior, the empirical results show that the housing wealth effect is significant and that it is obviously smaller for those observations whose houses' property rights are incomplete, compared with their counterparts. / Zhou, Shaojie. / "August 2007." / Advisers: Jun Sen Zhang; Hong bin Li. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 69-02, Section: A, page: 0704. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 219-222). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, MI] : ProQuest Information and Learning, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract in English and Chinese. / School code: 1307.

Includes bibliographical references. Addresses the question of what an economic model of the world wine market suggests will happen to wine production, consumption, trade and prices in various regions in the early 21st century. A subsidiary issue is what difference would global or European regional wine liberalisation make to that outlook, according to such a model. Accompanying CD-ROM comprises spreadsheet written by Nick Berger, November 2000, for the Windows and Office97 versions of Excel; a seven region world wine model (WWM7) - base version projecting the world wine market 1996-2005 as a non-linear Armington model. System requirements for accompanying CD-ROM: IBM compatible computer ; Microsoft Excel 97 or later.

In this study, the rates of technological change in food processing sectors of U.S. and Mexico are compared through econometric estimation of both the unrestricted (long-run) and restricted (short-run) profit functions with first order autocorrelation correction. Then, the dual rate of productivity growth is computed and decomposed into its sources. The impact of environmental regulations on productivity growth is also analyzed through incorporation of a pollution abatement variable into empirical models. The hypothesis testing results on the existence of short-run equilibrium in capital markets indicated that the restricted profit function framework is the valid specification for the underlying production technologies of U.S. and Mexican food sectors during the sample period, and hence, our conclusions are based on restricted profit function models. Our results suggest that, in U.S., the average annual dual rate of technological change dropped from 0.76% during 1963-73 to 0.67% during 1974-88, increased to 0.72% between 1988-1990, and declined to 0.65% during 1990-93. In Mexico, the dual rate of technological change was sharply declining during most of the years of sample period, and the average annual rate dropped from 1.30% during 1971-74 to 0.01% between 1989-93. The dual rate of technological change was lower in U.S. than in Mexico during 1971-81 period, but the difference (dual technological change gap) was sharply declining. Starting from 1982, the dual rate of technological change became greater in U.S. than in Mexico and the difference was continuously increasing. Moreover, the decomposition of dual productivity growth into its sources reveals that technological change was the main source of productivity growth in both countries, although in Mexico, the effects of changes in output price on productivity growth outweighed the contributions of technological change during several years between 1982-94. The impact of capacity utilization had a minor impact on productivity growth in both countries. The estimated elasticities of input demand and output supply indicated that labor demand is price inelastic, while material demand and output supply are price elastic in both countries. The own price elasticity of material and output was higher in Mexico than in U.S. In both countries, input demands are affected most significantly by output prices, while output supply is most significantly affected by its own price. The estimates for elasticity of substitution between labor and material imply that labor and material are complement of each other in both countries, with the degree of substitution between them is higher in Mexico than in U.S. Finally, the estimated parameters corresponding to pollution abatement variable suggested that pollution abatement costs had no significant impact on the U.S. dual rate of technological change, and in turn, productivity growth rate, and this appears to be consistent with the fact that the share of pollution abatement costs is quite small in U.S. food processing sector. For the Mexico, the estimated parameters were individually significant, implying that one unit increase in pollution abatement variable reduced the dual rate of technological change by around 0.11% points during 1982-94 period. / Graduation date: 1999

In modern economies, national governments have a wide range of policies for restricting international trade and protecting domestic industries at their disposal. The most popular form of non-tariff trade policies is probably that of a direct quantitative restriction. This policy takes two principal forms: explicit import quotas and voluntary export restraints (VERs). A VER is a quota imposed by an exporting country upon exports to other countries in response to pressures exercised by the importing countries (i.e., in the form of threats of various types of import restrictions). When these two policies are partially liberalized, subject to a reasonable foreign share in the domestic market, product differentiation between imported goods and domestic goods within an imperfect market can serve to increase welfare levels within the domestic economy. In this situation, the foreign share will not be as high as it would be for the homogeneous assumption. Under a partial VER liberalization policy, if the degree of substitutability between domestic and imported goods is sufficiently small, then domestic welfare will improve as foreign imports are increased. That is, if domestic and imported goods are perfect substitutes, then the most favorable domestic policy will be to close domestic markets to the foreign country since no country can allow foreign market shares as high as 66 percent in the domestic market. In a simulation of U.S. automobile industrial production, when a partial quota liberalization is observed, welfare levels can be increased by reducing the Japanese import market share to a level below 10 percent, that is, to a level which is less than the actual current foreign market share. In real terms, this implies that U.S. auto industry must be further liberalized to acquire additional domestic benefits under a VER policy, whereas the U.S. should restrict foreign market share below 10 percent to maximize domestic welfare levels under a quota policy. This will occur if the net consumer surplus is in excess of producer net excess profits under an imperfect market structure. / Graduation date: 1993

Firms face a big challenge in matching the supply of perishable goods with uncertain demand in real time. In practice, the traditional supply chain models are proved not efficiently enough to lower firms' risk exposure. The purpose of the dissertation is to provide the theoretical framework of roles of several stylized markets in firms' risk management. In particular, we explore the influence of the spot business-to-business exchange market, forward contract market and credit-default swap market respectively. The dissertation is divided into the following three chapters. In chapter 1, we show that when the exchange market lacks perfect liquidity, a firm's capital structure has a greater influence on its output-level decisions, then the market is perfectly liquid. The impact may be even greater than that without an exchange market. This is primarily because the introduction of the exchange market causes firms to act strategically in absence of perfect liquidity. In chapter 2, we study the essential relationship between producers' forward contracts and their supply strategies in business-to-business exchange market. Specifically, we focus on the application of the electricity power exchange market in the US. Our model reveals that the strategic incentive makes producers to join in forward contract market voluntarily and increases social welfare. We show in chapter 1 that even when firms' risks are independent of each other, there is a chance that the realization of market uncertainty turns out to be the same. As a result, there is no exchange market as a platform to help firms hedge their risks. Therefore, we need other instruments in firms' risk management portfolio. In chapter 3, we propose a financial market, credit-default swap market, in which firm s can temporarily transfer default risks to outside investors. However, the "lemon" problem may cause social cost.

The effects of the March 1990 deregulation policy on the marketing of agricultural products are examined in terms of price levels, price variability and market integration for maize, tef, noug and sorghum for the Bako, Tibe and Shoboka markets of the Wollega and Shoa regions of Ethiopia. Weekly price data from 1986 to 1993 are used. The price level and price variability changes are tested using a T-test and F-test respectively while market integration is tested using traditional price correlation analysis and Granger's and Johansen's methods of cointegration analysis. Deregulation has resulted in an increase in real prices which has also, in most cases, been accompanied by an increase in price variability. The price correlation and Granger methods indicate improvement in market integration under deregulation while Johansen's method indicates similar levels of market integration for both regulated and deregulated marketing systems. Increased price variability might thwart the perceived benefits of deregulation and further research is needed to identify its causes and to provide appropriate policy recommendations.

D. Comm. / The South African vehicle industry is currently struggling to narrow the gap between the demand and supply for new vehicles. Customers are confronted with long waiting lists for some models, while producers are carrying high stock levels on other models. A possible explanation for this is the complex nature of the demand for vehicles, resulting in difficulty to analyze and forecast vehicle sales. The demand for large and luxury passenger vehicles is to a. large extent status-driven, while the demand for commercial vehicles and tractors can be seen as derived demand because they are being used in the production process. Motorcycles, on the other hand, can be seen as "inferior goods" due to their discomfort. Demand management suggests that managers must react proactively to changes in the market with the aid of strategic information systems. A key ingredient of information systems is econometric models. These models transform data into decision-relevant information. The availability and knowledge of these models are, however, very limited. Studies performed on the vehicle industry produced only a few broadly defined models. They analyze only the main categories and do not, for example, distinguish between small and large vehicles, while this mix of sales is important for the majority of stakeholders in the vehicle industry. If forecasts are made with these models, decisions will be based on inaccurate forecasts and scarce resources will be wasted. This study is executed against this background. It is an attempt to narrow this gap between demand and supply and to address the shortcomings of previous econometric models. The primary objective of the study is to compile and test an econometric model for each vehicle category in South Africa. The secondary objective is to investigate the use of econometric models in the strategic planning processes in the vehicle industry to gain a competitive advantage. In order to make conclusions and recommendations to the industry, the following steps were followed: All vehicle categories in South Africa were identified (small passenger cars, medium passenger cars, large passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, medium commercial vehicles, heavy commercial vehicles, tractors and motorcycles). A unique data base was compiled for each category of vehicle (prices of new vehicles, prices of second-hand vehicles and numbers sold). Economic and graphic analyses were performed on every category, investigating the determinants of the demand for that category of vehicle. An econometric model was estimated for each category of vehicle. These models were tested economically, statistically and econometrically to verify the soundness thereof. The uses of these models were illustrated ("what if" analyses and forecasting). The role of managers in the vehicle industry in the application of these models were investigated. It can be concluded from the results of the econometric models that consumer behaviour in the vehicle industry can be analysed and forecast quite accurately. It was proven from the results that the factors influencing the demand for the different categories of vehicles, and especially the extent to which these determinants influence demand, differ considerably among the categories. This emphasizes the importance of analyses of this nature where the determinants of demand are analyzed for each and every type of vehicle. This also emphasizes the risk managers take when decisions are based on models where all these categories are combined and only total vehicle demand is analyzed. The responsiveness of management depends to a large extent on the quality of the information systems in the company. The new approach, 'identified in this study, concentrates on the direct use of information systems, and more specifically econometric models, to establish a competitive advantage.

This dissertation studies the determinants of the spatial distribution of economic activity and how such activity is affected by public policy. The dissertation contains three chapters. In the first chapter, we ask: what role does labor market competitiveness play in determining the location decisions of firms and workers, and the resulting spatial wage distribution? To answer this question, we develop a model of monopsony power in spatial equilibrium. Workers and firms are free to locate in any labor market, and the degree of market power a firm enjoys depends on the number of competing firms in its location. We show the model can rationalize concentrations of economic activity and the city-size wage premium through an endogenous labor market competitiveness channel: in larger labor markets, endogenous firm entry increases labor market competition, decreasing wage markdowns and increasing equilibrium wages. To estimate the magnitude of labor market competitiveness differences across space, we utilize matched employer-employee data from Germany. Using a canonical empirical methodology from the labor economics literature on monopsony, we estimate that labor markets are significantly more competitive in larger cities. Calibrating the model to match this reduced-form evidence, we find endogenous labor market competitiveness can explain 37% of the city-size wage premium and 14% of all agglomeration. In the second chapter, we use the new framework developed in Chapter 1 to study the spatial and welfare implications of the 2015 German national minimum wage law. We first show a traditional spatial model that ignores variation in monopsony power across space predicts large unemployment effects in smaller, lower-wage labor markets, contradicting the reduced-form evidence on the effects of the law. Turning to our monopsony framework, we note that in the calibrated model, monopsony power is strongest in smaller, lower-wage labor markets: exactly those that the perfectly competitive model predicted would have the largest unemployment effects. Imposing the minimum wage in the calibrated monopsony framework, we find results in line with the reduced-form evidence — minimal unemployment effects, even in the lowest-wage labor markets, and therefore significant convergence in regional nominal wage inequality. Accounting for spatially-varying monopsony power, we find the enacted national law outperforms an alternative policy with a lower level of the minimum wage in East Germany, while a law that takes into account variation in productivity and competitiveness significantly outperforms both. In the third chapter (joint with Pablo Ernesto Warnes and Timur Abbiasov), we examine the effects of pedestrianization on business visits. There are significant debates in urban planning on the use of road space in cities. Should (some) streets be pedestrianized? Critics suggest closing streets to vehicles can harm local businesses by reducing access. The effect of pedestrianization on business visits has been difficult to assess due to the lack of an appropriate experiment and lack of systematic data on foot traffic. We examine a unique recent experiment, New York City's Open Streets program, which closed hundreds of street segments to cars, and utilize new anonymized cellphone geodata to measure visits to businesses. Using a matched difference-in-differences design, we find small effects of the program on visits overall, with sufficient precision to rule out significant negative effects, contradicting critics' predictions. We find significant positive effects on visits for Open Streets further from the Central Business District, especially for restaurants and bars. For such businesses, we find a 14% increase in visits as a result of the program.