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This thesis considers the economics of preferences in two different contexts. First it examines damages from climate change. I argue that our ignorance of the welfare implications of higher levels of warming, as well as scientific uncertainty in precisely what might trigger these scenarios, imply that our tastes and beliefs are incomplete (in the sense of Galaabaatar and Karni, 2013). That is, there are many 'plausible' ways to evaluate a given scenario. In Chapter 1, then, I develop this theory, and use it to formally separate climate impacts into three sorts: those understood well, those understood badly, and those representing the worst possible scenario. I provide a generalisation of the 'dismal theorem' of Weitzman (2009a), and address the question of policy choice: prices versus quantities (cf. Weitzman, 1974). Chapter 2 is an example of the analysis propounded in Chapter 1. I explore the sensitivity of the social cost of carbon to assumed damages from 4C warming, to the assumed extent of CO2 emissions, and to the modelling of the climate and carbon cycles. The analysis shows that differing prior assumptions can alter our evaluation of policy by orders of magnitude. The second part of this thesis regards preferences for indivisible goods. In Chapter 3, which is joint work with Paul Klemperer, I introduce to this field the 'tropical hypersurface', being those prices at which an agent's demand changes. Simple geometric features of this set tell us the precise trade-offs that interest the agent. Thus we develop a new taxonomy of valuations, `demand types'; familiar notions such as substitutes and complements are examples. Finally, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition on these `demand types' for existence of competitive equilibrium, which implies several existing results, as well as new and quite different examples.

Modern banking theories provide a host of explanations for the existence of intermediaries, highlight their important influence on economic growth, delineate the risks inherent in the services they provide, and illustrate the market failures and real costs of bank failures that precipitate the need for regulation and oversight of the sector. This thesis is a collection of three essays that looks at three of these key aspects of financial intermediaries - the development of financial intermediaries, the function of the lender of last resort that has emerged as an important part of the safety net afforded to financial intermediaries, and the occurrence of financial crises. The first chapter of this thesis provides an introduction to the academic literature on financial intermediation covering different theories put forward to explain their emergence, and highlighting the risks inherent in their operation. It emphasizes the crucial functions they perform in the economy and makes a case for regulation and oversight of the sector to reduce the incidence and alleviate the effects of financial crises. The second chapter seeks to determine the policy and institutional factors that influence the development of financial institutions as measured across three dimensions - depth, efficiency, and stability. Applying the concept of the financial possibility frontier, developed by Beck and Feyen (2013) and formalized by Barajas et al. (2013b), we determine key policy variables affecting the gap between actual levels of development and benchmarks predicted by structural variables. Our dynamic panel estimation shows that inflation, trade openness, institutional quality, and banking crises significantly affect financial development. We also assess the impact of the policy variables across the different dimensions of development thereby identifying complementarities and potential trade-offs for policy makers. The third chapter models the role of the lender of last resort (LoLR) in a general equilibrium framework. We allow for heterogeneous agents and a risk-averse banking sector, and incorporate the frictions of endogenous default, liquidity, and money. Adverse supply shocks in monetary endowments trigger default, leading to deterioration in the value of bank assets, and subsequent bank illiquidity in some states of the world. LoLR intervention is then assessed with regards to its economy-wide effect on welfare, bank profitability, and the level of default. The results provide a justification for constructive ambiguity. The fourth chapter aims to provide an explanation for the incidence of financial crises by combining insights from agency theory and Minsky's financial instability hypothesis (Minsky, 1992) in a model with endogenous default. Our theoretical model shows that the probability of a financial crisis increases as the quality of shareholder information decreases. We then develop a measure for the quality of shareholder information following Simon (1989) and show that the market-wide quality of shareholder information: i) is poor (with no trend) in the Pre-SEC period (1840 to 1934); ii) improves substantially following the SEC reforms; and iii) gradually declines starting in the 1960s/70s until it is now back to pre-SEC levels. This matches up with the standard list of US financial crises (as in Reinhart and Rogoff 2009; Reinhart 2010) and supports our hypothesis that the likelihood of a financial crisis increases with deterioration in the quality of shareholder information.

In this thesis I study how networks are formed and I analyse the strategies that well-connected individuals adopt in public good games on a network. In chapter one I study an artefactual field experiment in rural India which tests whether farmers can create efficient networks in a repeated link formation game, and whether group categorisation increases the frequency of in-group links and reduces network efficiency. I find that the efficiency of the networks formed in the experiment is significantly lower than the efficiency which could be achieved under selfish, rational play. When information about group membership is disclosed, in-group links are chosen more frequently, while the efficiency of network structure is not significantly affected. Using a job-referral network experiment in an urban area of Ethiopia, I investigate in chapter two whether individuals create new links with the least connected players in the network. In a first treatment, competition for job-referrals makes it in the player's interest to link with the least connected partners. In this treatment, links to the least connected players are significantly more likely than links to better connected individuals. In a second treatment, connections only affect the welfare of the new partner. Choosing the least connected player minimises inequality and maximises aggregate efficiency. This may motivate other-regarding players. In this treatment, however, links to least connected partners are not significantly more likely than links to other players. In chapter three I explore the characteristics that individuals value in the people they approach for advice. Using cross-sectional data on cocoa farmers in Ghanaian villages and a matched lottery experiment, I find an association between the difference in the aversion to risk of two farmers and the probability that one farmer is interested in the advice of the other farmer. In chapter four I study a one-shot public good game in rural India between farmers connected by a star network. Contributions by the centre of the star have a larger impact on aggregate payoffs than contributions by the spoke players. I use the strategy method to study whether the centre of the star contributes more than the average of the spokes. In selected sessions, I disclose participants' expectations about the choices of the centre of star. I find that the centre player contributes just as much as the average of the spokes, and that he is influenced by the expectations that other players hold about his decisions.

This thesis focuses on those factors which foster the long-run survival, or continued existence, of the small firm. Using fieldwork methods, new data were gathered in face-to-face interviews with 63 owner-managers of mature small firms in Scotland (average age of 251/2 years). An instrument incorporating novel ways of calibrating organisational change and performance was designed specifically for this study. The unique body of data enabled a number of new hypotheses to be tested in structural econometric models of small firm performance and growth. A mix of quantitative and qualitative data was also used to construct illustrative case studies of seven enterprise profiles. New measures of flexibility and firm-specific turbulence are used to explain the performance of mature small firms, and Heckman sample selection estimation is undertaken of this performance equation. Performance was measured using an index constructed fi-om Likert scales over 28 distinct attributes. It was found that firm- specific turbulence had a large negative effect on performance. Measures of flexibility (viz. agility and speed) enhanced the long run prospects of the mature small firm. Evidence of a trade-off relationship was found between measures of flexibility. Real options logic was found to be useful in interpreting the results. This evidence indicated that entrepreneurs should be alert to precipitators of organisational change, but should not act impulsively in responding to them. The tendency of the long-lived small firm to remain small is considered using structural modelling techniques. In a three-equation simultaneous model, performance, size and a third variable (viz. market extent and size of competitive strategy space) are jointly determined. An array of system estimation techniques (e.g. 2SLS, SSLS, H3SLS) was employed to estimate the behavioural models. A trade-off is found between firm size and performance, thus embedding this result in a larger structural model. It is found that small firms need to adjust downwards in size, and to cultivate a varied competitive strategy in niche or localised markets, to attain higher equilibrium values of performance and to promote longevity.

Direct response advertising in the financial services industry in South Africa has become one of the most important tactics companies utilise to build and maintain market share. Ensuring that these advertising campaigns yield optimal return on investment numbers is the responsibility of marketing departments and their partners in the marketing and sales processes, such as the creative and media agencies, the distribution force, as well as the client service area that supports the client value proposition. The marketing executive therefore is accountable for the planning, budgeting and execution of direct response campaigns, which need to deliver sufficient results to support the company’s overall business objectives. The challenge all marketers face is the lack of a proven structured and scientific methodology to facilitate this planning, budgeting and execution process. It has always been a general view in the marketing fraternity that it is extremely difficult if not impossible to combine creative output measures, which are subjective in nature, with cost, sales and profit measures, which are objective in nature. This study aims to create a structured approach to marketing strategising and planning, by creating a marketing metrics model that enables the marketing practitioner to budget according to output needed to achieve the overarching business objectives of sales, cost management and profit. This marketing metrics model therefore unpacks the business drivers in detail, but through a marketing effort lense, to link the various factors underlying successful marketing output, to the bigger business objectives. This is done by incorporating both objective (verifiable data, such as cost per sale) and subjective variables (qualitative factors, such as creative quality) into a single model, which enables the marketing practitioner to identify areas of underperformance, which can then be managed, tweaked or discontinued in order to optimise marketing return on investment. Although many marketing metrics models and variables exist, there is a gap in the combination of objective and subjective factors in a single model, such as the proposed model, which will give the marketer a single tool to plan, analyse and manage the output in relation to pre-determined performance benchmarks. / Business Management / DCOM (Business Management)

Submitted by ADRIANO FERREIRA DE MORAES null (adriano_afmoraes@hotmail.com) on 2017-10-02T23:51:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Adriano_Ferreira_de_Moraes.pdf: 1207340 bytes, checksum: f0cc7e7033a1326e1d5e10d4c8a60e5c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Monique Sasaki (sayumi_sasaki@hotmail.com) on 2017-10-03T16:16:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 moraes_af_me_jabo.pdf: 1207340 bytes, checksum: f0cc7e7033a1326e1d5e10d4c8a60e5c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-03T16:16:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 moraes_af_me_jabo.pdf: 1207340 bytes, checksum: f0cc7e7033a1326e1d5e10d4c8a60e5c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-09-04 / Análises econômicas resultam em ferramentas importantes na definição de políticas e medidas estruturantes para qualquer setor de produção, particularmente no setor de produtos agrícolas. Esta pesquisa teve como objetivos a avaliação de fatores que afetam a oferta cafeeira da região Nordeste do estado de São Paulo, por meio de modelagem econométrica. As variáveis utilizadas na pesquisa foram a "produção do café" (em sacas de 60 kg), a "produtividade do café" (em sacas 60 kg por hectares), "área plantada de café" (em hectares), "preço do café" no mercado (em reais por saca de 60 kg) e preços (em reais) de produtos concorrentes, como do "kg de açúcar" e da "dúzia de laranjas". Os dados são anuais e foram obtidos junto ao Instituto de Economia Agrícola (IEA), no Centro de Estudos em Economia Aplicada, referentes a 16 municípios dessa região, no período de 1995 a 2015. As análises foram realizadas com o auxílio do software GRETL (Gnu, Regression, Econometrics and Time-Series Library), com modelos de regressão linear múltipla do tipo log-log, considerando como variável dependente a "produção de café" e seguindo metodologia descrita e Gujarati e Porter (2011). Os resultados obtidos mostraram que a área plantada, a produtividade e o preço do café foram as variáveis determinantes da oferta, apresentando impacto positivo, no período de 1995 a 2015. Os preços dos produtos concorrentes, açúcar e laranja, não tiveram impactos significativos na oferta de café na região pesquisada, no período de 1995 a 2015. / Economic analyzes result in important tools in the definition of policies and structural measures for any production sector, particularly in the agricultural products sector. The objective of this study was to evaluate factors affecting coffee supply in the Northeast region of the state of São Paulo, using econometric modeling based on a log-log multiple regression. The variables used were production (the dependent variable), productivity (sacks 60 kg per hectare), planted area (hectares), prices of coffee (sack 60 kg), sugar (kg) and orange (dozen) . The data cover the period from 1995 to 2015 and were withdrawn from the Institute of Agricultural Economics (IEA) at the Center for Applied Economics Studies. Multiple log-log linear regression models were developed using the software GRETL (Gnu, Regression, Econometrics and Time-Series Library), and the methodology proposed by Gujarati and Porter (2011). The results showed that the planted area, the productivity and the price of coffee were the determinants of supply, with a positive impact, from 1995 to 2015. The prices of competing products, sugar and orange, did not have a significant impact on supply in the region surveyed, from 1995 to 2015.

This dissertation consists of two essays. The first essay focuses on developing a quantitative theory for a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a housing sector allowing for both contemporaneous and news shocks. The second essay is an empirical study on the macroeconomic forecasting using both structural and non-structural models. In the first essay, we develop a DSGE model with a housing sector, which incorporates both contemporaneous and news shocks to domestic and external fundamentals, to explore the kind of and the extent to which different shocks to economic fundamentals matter for driving housing market dynamics in a small open economy. The model is estimated by the Bayesian method, using data from Hong Kong. The quantitative results show that external shocks and news shocks play a significant role in this market. Contemporaneous shock to foreign housing preference, contemporaneous shock to terms of trade, and news shocks to technology in the consumption goods sector explain one-third each of the variance of housing price. Terms of trade contemporaneous shock and consumption technology news shocks also contribute 36% and 59%, respectively, to the variance in housing investment. The simulation results enable policy makers to identify the key driving forces behind the housing market dynamics and the interaction between housing market and the macroeconomy in Hong Kong. In the second essay, we compare the forecasting performance between structural and non-structural models for a small open economy. The structural model refers to the small open economy DSGE model with the housing sector in the first essay. In addition, we examine various non-structural models including both Bayesian and classical time-series methods in our forecasting exercises. We also include the information from a large-scale quarterly data series in some models using two approaches to capture the influence of fundamentals: extracting common factors by principal component analysis in a dynamic factor model (DFM), factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), and Bayesian FAVAR (BFAVAR) or Bayesian shrinkage in a large-scale vector autoregression (BVAR). In this study, we forecast five key macroeconomic variables, namely, output, consumption, employment, housing price inflation, and CPI-based inflation using quarterly data. The results, based on mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) of one to eight quarters ahead out-of-sample forecasts, indicate that the non-structural models outperform the structural model for all variables of interest across all horizons. Among the non-structural models, small-scale BVAR performs better with short forecasting horizons, although DFM shows a similar predictive ability. As the forecasting horizon grows, DFM tends to improve over other models and is better suited in forecasting key macroeconomic variables at longer horizons.

O comportamento do emprego no meio rural vêm se modificando ao longo do tempo. Pode-se perceber que o rural não é mais unicamente agropecuário. Existem atividades nãoagrícolas realizadas no meio rural vinculadas ou não à agropecuária, gerando o fenômeno conhecido como pluriatividade. O diagnóstico deste fenômeno para o Brasil já foi executado pelo projeto RURBANO. Entretanto, ainda existe uma lacuna na literatura nacional referente à utilização de modelos econométricos visando identificar os seus fatores determinantes. Além disto, estudos que tenham tentado entender como a vizinhança e os atributos do contexto em torno do município afetam o emprego não-agropecuário por pessoas residentes no meio rural ainda não foram efetuados. Neste contexto, o presente estudo analisa as questões relacionadas ao emprego rural, com ênfase nas atividades que não pertencem diretamente à produção agropecuária para o estado de Santa Catarina. São enfocados os aspectos econômicos, sociais e locacionais que possam explicar a evolução do emprego rural no estado. A escolha de Santa Catarina, para o estudo de caso, deve-se a algumas características peculiares deste estado, as quais são: apresentar uma economia altamente diversificada, ter na agropecuária uma importante fonte de renda para o PIB estadual, apresentar uma agricultura familiar dinâmica e, por se localizar na região sul, ter sido submetido de forma intensa à concorrência dos demais países que compunham o Mercosul até meados de 2006. Na literatura já existem diversos modelos econométricos visando analisar e explicar a pluriatividade no meio rural. O presente estudo utiliza um modelo contendo um sistema de três equações simultâneas lineares: 1- equação para a população rural; 2- equação para o emprego rural no setor industrial e 3- equação para o emprego rural no setor serviços. A nossa unidade de observação, neste modelo, são os municípios do estado, para a divisão territorial existente em 1991. Optou-se por trabalhar com o ano de 1991 devido ao menor número de pressuposições necessárias para compatibilizar as diferentes malhas municipais nos anos censitários de 1980, 1991 e 2000. Os dados relacionados ao emprego e à população são originados a partir dos microdados dos Censos Demográficos, produzidos pelo IBGE, para os anos de 1980, 1991 e 2000. As variáveis que definem os atributos da localidade são extraídas, além dos Censos Demográficos, de diversas fontes. Dentre estas se podem citar: Datasus, IPEA, Guia Quatro Rodas, entre outros. Visando complementar nossa análise, são calculados diversos índices de concentração da atividade econômica que permitem caracterizar as mesorregiões do estado e, assim, ajudar a explicar os resultados da regressão. Os resultados obtidos na tese confirmam a importância das atividades não agropecuárias na geração de emprego para as pessoas residentes em áreas rurais no Estado de Santa Catarina. O crescimento destas atividades no estado serviu para minimizar os impactos causados pela diminuição do emprego agropecuário no estado. Além de importante gerador de ocupações, as atividades não agropecuárias contribuem para aumentar a renda domiciliar dos residentes rurais. A renda dos domicílios pluriativos são superiores àquelas obtidas pelos domicílios agrícolas em todas as mesorregiões analisadas. O modelo econométrico estimado permitiu confirmar as hipóteses que nortearam este trabalho. Foi detectada a presença de \"spillovers\" do crescimento das populações urbanas sobre a população e o emprego não agropecuário para os residentes no meio rural. De maneira semelhante, estes \"spillovers\" foram também detectados quanto ao crescimento do número de pessoas ocupadas, nos setores de serviços e industriais, no meio urbano sobre os ocupados nesses setores e vivendo no meio rural. Os atributos locais foram também variáveis importantes na explicação da variação do número de pessoas ocupadas em atividades não agropecuárias para os residentes no meio rural. Entretanto, as variáveis que representam o acesso a mercados não se apresentaram como estatisticamente significativas. As variáveis que descrevem o passado (histórico) do número de pessoas ocupadas em atividades não agropecuárias e vivendo no meio rural foram também importantes variáveis na explicação do crescimento do número de ocupações não agropecuárias para os residentes no meio rural. Em outras palavras, o crescimento da pluriatividade (entre 1991 e 2000) está relacionada à sua dimensão anterior (considerada em 1980). / The characteristics of employment in rural places have been changing during the time, and we observe that rural employment is not only agricultural. There are non-agricultural job opportunities in rural areas which are related or not to the agricultural activity, which creates a phenomenon called pluriactivity. The diagnostic of this situation in Brazil was performed in the RURBANO project. However, there is yet a gap in the national literature referent to the utilization of econometric models for the identification of its determinants. Further, no studies were performed to understand how the neighborhood and the attributes around her affect the employment in non-agricultural activities in rural areas. The present study analyzes the questions related with rural employment, emphasizing the activities not directly connected to the agricultural production in the state of Santa Catarina. Emphasis is given to the dynamics and locational questions that can explain the rural employment inside the state. Santa Catarina was chosen due to its peculiarities: a diversified economy, the agriculture is an important activity to the state, the family farm is the base component of the production, and, as a state located in the south region, have faced directly the Mercosul challenges. There are a huge number of econometric models reported on the literature that can be used to explain the new rural employment dynamics. In the present study was used a model consisting of three linear simultaneous equations: 1- equation for rural population, 2- equation for rural employment in the industrial sector and, 3 - equation for rural employment in the service sector. The observational unit in this study is the county, using the 1991 map track. The decision to use the 1991 map track was based on the lower number of presupposition needed to make compatible the different county track in the years of 1980, 1991, and 2000. The source of data was the micro data of the demographic census, done by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) in the years of 1980, 1991 and 2000. The variables that define the local attributes were extracted from the Demographic Census and from several other sources, such as: Datasus, IPEA, Guia Quatro Rodas, among others. To complement the analysis, several concentration index of the economic activity were calculated, which enable to unsterstand and characterize the microregions and, in this way, help to explain the results from the regression analysis. The results obtained show the importance of the non-agricultural activities for the employment dynamism in the rural areas of Santa Catarina. The increment of this kind of activity has minimized the impacts caused by the reduction of traditional rural employment in the state. In addition of being an important generator of employment, non-agricultural activities help to increase the household income of rural residents in all regions of the state analyzed. The incomes of the pluriactive households are superior to that of agricultural households in all analyzed mesoregions. The econometric model confirmed the hypothesis that supports this study. It was detected the presence of spillovers from the urban population growth in direction to the growth of the population and non-agricultural employment for the rural residents. In a similar way, these spillovers were also detected on the growth of employment in the service and industry sectors in urban areas over the same jobs in rural areas. The local attributes were also important variables to explain the variation of the nonagricultural employment for rural residents. However, the variables that describe the access to market were not statistically significant. The variables that describe the history of the number of people occupied in non-agricultural activities and living in rural areas were also important to explain the growth of the number of people occupied in non-agricultural activities for rural residents. That is, the increase of pluriativity (from 1991 to 2000) is related to its dimension in the past (in the year 1980).

Este trabalho teve por objetivo determinar a influência das características dos países e indústrias no comércio intra-industrial brasileiro de produtos manufaturados, considerando fluxos de quantidades comercializadas ao ano, para o período de 2002 a 2006, através de estimativas de uma equação gravitacional adaptada à análise dessa forma de comércio. As variáveis explicativas são relacionadas ao tamanho de mercado, representado pela proxy LPIBij, diferenças entre as rendas per capita dos países, representadas pela proxy LdPIBpcij, e tarifas aduaneiras aplicadas pelos países importadores, LTarifas. Tais variáveis foram utilizadas para analisar o comércio intraindustrial e seus componentes horizontal e vertical. A fundamentação teórica para proceder à segmentação do comércio intra-industrial brasileiro, segundo tais características, foi derivada de trabalhos conduzidos por Falvey (1981), Helpman e Krugman, (1985) e Greenaway, et al. (1995). A mensuração do Índice de Grubel-Lloyd e a posterior separação dos componentes do CII utilizando valor unitário indicam uma composição do comércio intra-industrial brasileiro com forte predomínio do componente CII Vertical Inferior.Os resultados da estimação das equações gravitacionais, com a utilização dos dados em painel e a utilização de Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood comprovou ser a mais adequada para a estimativa econométrica.Para o comércio intraindustrial total, os resultados indicaram que o tamanho de mercado, tem um efeito positivo sobre o fluxo de exportação dos produtos brasileiros com comércio intraindustrial (0,517), porém, as diferenças entre as rendas per capita dos países (-0,183) e tarifas aduaneiras dos países importadores (-0,356), são negativamente relacionados. Os resultados para o comércio intra-industrial vertical e horizontal apresentam os mesmos sinais que o CII total, com alteração na magnitude. / This study aimed to determine the influence of characteristics for countries and industries in intra-industry trade (IIT) of Brazilian manufactured products, considering the annual trade flows for the period 2002 to 2006 and using a gravity equation adapted to analysis this form of trade . The explanatory variables are related to market size, represented by proxy LPIBij, differences between per capita incomes of countries represented by proxy LdPIBpcij, and tariffs imposed by importing countries, represented by proxy LTarifas. These variables were used to analyze the intra-industry trade and its horizontal and vertical components. The theoretical basis to make the segmentation of intra-industry in Brazil, according to such characteristics, was derived from studies conducted by Falvey (1981), Helpman and Krugman (1985) and Greenaway et al.(1995). The measurement of the Grubel-Lloyd index and the subsequent separation of components from IIT using unit value indicates that the brazilian intra-industry trade has a strong predominance of IIT Vertical Low quality. The results of the estimation of the gravitational equations with the use of panel data and the use of Poisson Pseudo- Maximum-Likelihood proved to be the most suitable for econometric estimation. The results for intra-industry total indicated that the market size, has a positive effect on the flow of exports of Brazilian products with intra-industry trade (0,517), however, the differences between per capita incomes (-0,183) of countries and tariffs in importing countries (-0,356) have a negative relation. The results for vertical and horizontal intraindustry trade have the same signals than intra-industry total but they differ in magnitude.