Economic systems are often subject to structural variability. For the achievement of correct structural specification in econometric modelling it is then important to allow for parameters that are time-varying, and to apply estimation techniques suitably designed for inference in such models. One realistic model assumption for such parameter variability is the Markovian model, and Kaiman filtering is then assumed to be a convenient estimator. In the thesis several aspects of using Kaiman filtering approaches to estimation in that framework are considered. The application of the Kaiman filter to estimation in econometric models is straightforward if a set of basic assumptions are satisfied, and if necessary initial specifications can be accurately made. Typically, however, these requirements can generally not be perfectly met. It is therefore of great importance to know the consequences of deviations from the basic assumptions and correct initial specifications for inference, in particular for the small sample situations typical in econometrics. If the consequences are severe it is essential to develop techniques to cope with such aspects.For estimation in interdependent systems a two stage Kaiman filter is proposed and evaluated, theoretically, as well as by a small sample Monte Carlo study, and empirically. The estimator is approximative, but with promising small sample properties. Only if the transition matrix of the parameter model and an initial parameter vector are misspecified, the performance deteriorates. Furthermore, the approach provides useful information about structural properties, and forms a basis for good short term forecasting.In a reduced form fraaework most of the basic assumptions of the traditional Kaiman filter are relaxed, and the implications are studied. The case of stochastic regressors is, under reasonable additional assumptions, shown to result in an estimator structurally similar to that due to the basic assumptions. The robustness properties are such that in particular the transition matrix and the initial parameter vector should be carefully estimated. An estimator for the joint estimation of the transition matrix, the parameter vector and the model residual variance is suggested and utilized to study the consequences of a misspecified parameter model. By estimating th transitions the parameter estimates are seen to be robust in this respect. / <p>Härtill 4 delar</p> / digitalisering@umu

Population retention and growth is a concern for cities, towns, and rural municipalities across Canada, and population change is one of the best available indicators of economic prosperity and community success. As such, it is important to understand the factors driving the location decisions of Canadians, and to use this information to help communities develop strategies to ensure their longevity and to comprehend the various features influencing future prosperity. The results of this study clearly show that local community characteristics do indeed influence local population growth. Important factors include economic indicators, the presence of different types of amenities, and the proximity of the community to urban areas. <p> Previous research has been completed on the topic of community population change and amenities in other countries, but Canada has not been examined until now. This study utilizes census data at the municipality level to examine these issues. The analysis consists of an econometric model with population change as the dependent variable, and a number of local factors as the explanatory variables. In general, the results of this study complied with theoretical predictions. Communities with favourable amenities and economic factors were found to have higher population growth. Also, different age groups were found to value different bundles of amenities and economic opportunities. <p> Amenities were found to be important factors affecting population growth. Communities with higher average housing prices and lower average incomes had higher population growth. Although this is seemingly a contradictory result, it implies that amenities have been capitalized into incomes and housing prices over time and thus more than income appears to be determining the pattern of housing values across Canada; an outcome predicted by the theoretical framework of the study. Medical amenities were found to be more important for older segments of the population, though all ages valued being near large acute care hospitals. Communities with high rates of violent crime tended to have lower population growth rates. Natural amenities such as mountains and pleasant weather, and the presence of water did not consistently result in higher community population growth. <p> Economic factors such as industry diversification, high local employment rates, and growing employment prospects were very important in influencing population growth, especially among younger segments of the population. However, economic and financial opportunities do not appear to affect migration decisions of the elderly, who are influenced more by medical amenities. Except for youth, local employment opportunities were not as important as having opportunities in surrounding communities. The presence of agriculture and resource extraction sectors tended to result in lower population growth. Finally, proximity to larger urban centres and population size appeared to be beneficial for communities. <p> Overall, the results of this study provide insight for community leaders, policy makers, and others interested in the dynamics of community population change, and will help governments efficiently allocate resources to communities and form strategies to deal with declining community populations.

Population retention and growth is a concern for cities, towns, and rural municipalities across Canada, and population change is one of the best available indicators of economic prosperity and community success. As such, it is important to understand the factors driving the location decisions of Canadians, and to use this information to help communities develop strategies to ensure their longevity and to comprehend the various features influencing future prosperity. The results of this study clearly show that local community characteristics do indeed influence local population growth. Important factors include economic indicators, the presence of different types of amenities, and the proximity of the community to urban areas. <p> Previous research has been completed on the topic of community population change and amenities in other countries, but Canada has not been examined until now. This study utilizes census data at the municipality level to examine these issues. The analysis consists of an econometric model with population change as the dependent variable, and a number of local factors as the explanatory variables. In general, the results of this study complied with theoretical predictions. Communities with favourable amenities and economic factors were found to have higher population growth. Also, different age groups were found to value different bundles of amenities and economic opportunities. <p> Amenities were found to be important factors affecting population growth. Communities with higher average housing prices and lower average incomes had higher population growth. Although this is seemingly a contradictory result, it implies that amenities have been capitalized into incomes and housing prices over time and thus more than income appears to be determining the pattern of housing values across Canada; an outcome predicted by the theoretical framework of the study. Medical amenities were found to be more important for older segments of the population, though all ages valued being near large acute care hospitals. Communities with high rates of violent crime tended to have lower population growth rates. Natural amenities such as mountains and pleasant weather, and the presence of water did not consistently result in higher community population growth. <p> Economic factors such as industry diversification, high local employment rates, and growing employment prospects were very important in influencing population growth, especially among younger segments of the population. However, economic and financial opportunities do not appear to affect migration decisions of the elderly, who are influenced more by medical amenities. Except for youth, local employment opportunities were not as important as having opportunities in surrounding communities. The presence of agriculture and resource extraction sectors tended to result in lower population growth. Finally, proximity to larger urban centres and population size appeared to be beneficial for communities. <p> Overall, the results of this study provide insight for community leaders, policy makers, and others interested in the dynamics of community population change, and will help governments efficiently allocate resources to communities and form strategies to deal with declining community populations.

The effect of parks on residential real estate has been well recorded; however little research has been done to estimate the effects of parks on commercial real estate values. With the help of Geographic Information Systems and the transactions of nearly 10,000 properties from 2000 to early 2011, I produced three different hedonic commercial real estate sales models. Controlling for building characteristics, demographic variations within census groups, and locational attributes, I find that proximity to parks plays a role in the valuation of some property types. Little evidence is found to support the hypothesis that properties in proximity to parks are valued higher; however co-location of parks and other attributes could play a beneficial role in supplying cities with more parks while boosting surrounding property values.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Umeå : Univ., 2003. / Härtill 4 uppsatser.

published_or_final_version / Asian Studies / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Not available / text

No description available.

The purpose of this research is to quantify how macro-scale factors such as weather, crop prices, and land conversion affect agricultural water use at the irrigation district level in central Arizona and to understand what constraints and considerations district managers face when making water-sourcing decisions. A conceptual model is developed and econometrically estimated finding that much of the annual variation in total water use for agriculture can be explained by differences in precipitation, cotton prices, and alfalfa prices. Further, results from empirical analysis support the notion that total water use for agriculture has been greatly affected by land conversion from agriculture to other uses. Irrigation district manager interviews indicate that the water sourcing process is very similar across districts in central Arizona and has varied little since 1995, due to common constraints. This research lays an important foundation for future models designed to forecast agricultural water use in central Arizona.

Baigiamajame magistro darbe analizuojama paskolų Lietuvos namų ūkiams rinka. Atsižvelgiant į praktikoje paplitusius paskolų rinkų analizavimo metodus, vertinami ilgalaikiai ir trumpalaikiai ryšiai tarp paskolų Lietuvos namų ūkiams ir kitų ekonominių veiksnių. Taikant laiko eilučių metodus yra atliekamos paskolų sandorių prognoz÷s. Atsižvelgiant į spartų paskolų Lietuvos namų ūkiams rinkos augimą pastaraisiais metais, darbe vertinamas išorinių impulsų, ateinančių per paskolų rinką, poveikis šalies ekonomikai. Nagrin÷jami pagrindiniai paskolų namų ūkiams rinkai būdingi bruožai ir priežastingumo ryšiai. Analizei atlikti taikomi įvairūs ekonometriniai metodai ir modeliai: ne stacionarių laiko eilučių modelis (ARIMA), Johanseno kointegruotumo nustatymo procedūra, Grangerio priežastingumo tikrinimo procedūra, regresin÷ ir daugiamat÷ laiko eilučių analiz÷. Išnagrin÷jus gautus rezultatus, pateikiamos baigiamojo darbo išvados ir pasiūlymai. Darbą sudaro 8 dalys: įvadas, literatūros apžvalga, Lietuvos paskolų rinkos apžvalga, statistiniai rodikliai, taikomi modeliai ir metodai, duomenų analiz÷ ir prognozavimas, kointegruotumo tyrimas, regresin÷ ir daugiamat÷ laiko eilučių analiz÷, išvados ir siūlymai, literatūros sąrašas. / At this final master’s work the market of loans to Lithuanian households is analyzed. Given the methods applied to analyze credit markets in practice, the long-term and short-term relations between loans to Lithuanian households and other economic factors are evaluated. Non-stationary time series methods (ARIMA) are applied to perform forecasts of loan transactions. Given the rapid growth of loans to Lithuanian households in recent years, the effect of external impulses coming through the loan market to the economy of the country is evaluated. The main characteristics of loans to households and causality relations are analyzed. Various econometric methods and models are applied: non-stationary time series model (ARIMA), Johansen cointegration procedure, the Granger causality test, the regression and multivariate time series analysis. After the examination of the results obtained, the final conclusions and suggestions are presented. Structure: introduction, literature review, Lithuanian credit market overview, statistical indicators, models and methods applied, data analysis and forecasting, cointegration analysis, regression and multivariate time series analysis, conclusions and suggestions, references. Thesis consists of: 72 p. text without appendixes, 41 pictures, 41 tables, 9 bibliographical entries.